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juke · 05-29-2020, 04:09 PM

4550 words and more, split equally between @"reid_sutherland" (big thanks for doing a large part of the write-up!) and I

With S54 getting underway, we thought it was time to take a look at each SHL team’s roster and assess their strengths and weaknesses. To do this, we assembled a look at each team’s depth chart based on their listed position on the team roster page and their current TPE as of Thursday, May 28th. To help in our analysis, we calculated the average TPE of an SHL player as 1108 TPE. In the charts below, the color of the player’s name indicates how far above or below the average they are. Green is above average and red is below. The darker red or green they are, the higher above or below average they are – pretty straightforward.

To start, let’s look at some of the league trends in TPE. Like we just mentioned, the mean TPE for an SHL player is currently 1108. If you break it down positionally, forwards have the highest average SHL TPE at 1174 TPE, followed by defensemen at 1119 TPE, and finally goalies at 792 TPE, the latter of which is mostly brought down by lower TPE backup goalies. For that reason, there’s not too much stock to put into the goalie ratings that are presented here, since they’re presented as average TPE, when in reality it really only matters the TPE of the best goalie since they’ll be playing the majority of games. Regardless, to compare the TPE between all teams in the SHL, the following two graphs break down the average TPE of the 3 positional groups on each team. The first graph represents the mean TPE value for each team, and the second represents each team’s average relative to the league average positional TPE of 1174, 1119, and 792. We can see that 8 teams are above or just at the league average for all three positions: BUF, CGY, CHI, EDM, LAP, MAN, NEW, and NOL, while BAP, MIN, TBB, and TEX are all below the league average TPE for each position.

The main portion of this piece will be to analyze each team’s individual roster, but first, the following three graphs rank each team on a league-wide scale, in terms of average TPE for each position.

Now on to the breakdown of individual rosters. As a note, like we said before, the color scale is a player's TPE relative to average. Ths league-wide average of 1108 was used for the color scale, but in hindsight it should have been compared to the average of forward/defense/goalie, but oh well.

SHL Eastern Conference:

Average team TPE: 874 (#13)

Average forward TPE: 1011 (#13)

Average defenseman TPE: 1027 (#13)

Average goalie TPE: 585 (#14)

Strengths: Baltimore’s success in S54 will live and die by their top unit. Their presumed top line of Klaus, Ross, and Nuck are all above average TPE wise, and their top pairing of Emerson and Moore are well above average. In fact, the duo are the two highest TPE players on the Platoon and form what could very well be the brightest spot on the team this season. Baltimore’s wing depth is also not too shabby, as they boast three other wingers around the average TPE mark in Yoshimitsu, McCloud, Petr Mikulak, and Karl Krashwagen.

Weaknesses: Unfortunately for Baltimore, everything past the first unit is a little more suspect. Besides the aforementioned depth wingers, Baltimore is scraping together below average TPE players to fill out the remainder of the roster. Where this may be the biggest issue is on defense, as the third pairing is below 700 TPE, and barring any positional changes in FHM, they may struggle with a lack of depth at center as well. In net, sophomore Luca Del Vecchio is slightly below average, however he is still young and improving. Unlike some of the other young netminders in the league however, he does not have the high end defensive depth to help him weather the storm.

Average team TPE: 1242 (#2)

Average forward TPE: 1478 (#1)

Average defenseman TPE: 1468 (#1)

Average goalie TPE: 780 (#10)

Strengths: Buffalo is strong across the board, and is looking to be one of the top flight contenders in S54. With 7 players over 1500 TPE, they have the top end talent and the depth in both their forward and defensive units. In fact, they have the highest TPE average for forwards and defenders at the beginning of the season. Offseason addition Matt Kholin is the 5th highest forward in terms of TPE, yet has 1700 TPE – making him one of the top forwards in the SHL. The top duo of defenders, Cassius Darrow and Alexander Selich could (and likely will) be the first defensive teammates to crack 2K TPE at the same time. And that is not even mentioning the defending Scott Stevens award winner Poopity Scoop. The high end talent and all around depth combined should allow them to mix and match tactics and lines to almost any team, and they should be well equipped to collect a lot of wins and make a deep playoff run.

Weaknesses: The only real “weak” spots in this lineup is Buffalo’s third line center, Rintarou Okabe and their goaltending duo. Even then, Okabe is more than serviceable, and for a third line center sophomore, his TPE is even matched to that of a lot of teams 3rd liners. Their starting goaltender, Elizabeth Doyle, has a similar TPE level to Luca Del Vecchio of the Platoon mentioned above. The key difference here is the situation in front of her. With such a stacked defense, Doyle is likely to not be the weak link this season, as she should be sheltered from the barrage of shots weaker teams might face. In fact, she has higher TPE than Robinson did last year, and he boasted some incredible numbers.

Average team TPE: 1139 (#6)

Average forward TPE: 1350 (#4)

Average defenseman TPE: 1124 (#10)

Average goalie TPE: 942 (#4)

Strengths: Personally, I think that CHI is an underrated/dark horse team. They have the 6th highest team TPE, and it’s well balanced through almost all lines and positions. With a blockbuster offseason trade with Tampa Bay for Gunnar Soderberg and Nolan Sawchuk, Chicago has fortified their greatest strength – their offence. With every member except a third line winger checking in above 1100 TPE. The gangsters will be able to field two full lines of above (ish) 1300 TPE forwards, which should make for a potent offensive attack. On the rear end they are no slouches either, with Corey Kennedy and Parker Smeb combining for a high powered first pairing. Second pair Jules Watt and Akira Ren are a little above the TPE average, but should still make for a decent second pairing. Their netminder, Tibuk Soonika, is the 6th highest goalie by TPE, meaning they have a strong point at every position this season.

Weaknesses: The only noticeable weakness here is Chicago’s third defensive pairing. The duo of Abel Skinner and LPLL are far below average TPE rating, with LPLL seemingly having stalled in his development a little. This is not the worst weakness in the world, but the Syndicate will have to rely on their top two pairs taking the bulk of the minutes. Another weakness that could be argued is that Chicago has a lot of depth but only a few players that truly qualify as high end talent. This may be somewhat true, but is the definition of a first world problem, as they still have the talent to be one of the top teams in the league, if not on the same level as Buffalo. Additionally, the fact that they play in the Great Lake’s division with the defending champs Steelhawks, and the newly considered favorites Stampede doesn’t do their scheduling any favors, but all they need to do to make playoffs is place 4th in the East, which isn’t out of the question for this roster.

Average team TPE: 1072 (#9)

Average forward TPE: 1122 (#11)

Average defenseman TPE: 1252 (#5)

Average goalie TPE: 842 (#6)

Strengths: Take notes lad, it’s not about how much TPE you have, but how you use it. This chart may be a little surprising to those who have not been paying attention, given that Hamilton’s average forward TPE is below average – it is even more impressive that they dominated in S53 despite it. With this in mind, their greatest strength might be their coaching and strategies. Besides that, however, their defense is absolutely loaded. With all 6 members registering above the average TPE, they are one of the premier units in the league. Their goalie, Geezus Kryyst, is the 4th ranked goalie by TPE. Those two strengths together should make it very hard for other teams to get pucks in the net against Hamilton. They also boast some good depth at C as well, and all 3 lines should be centered by an above average C, including the 1634 TPE Wilson.

Weaknesses: This is where the below average forward group comes into play. Al Kayhall and Jagger Fouquette are two of their third line players that are below the average skater TPE, and they only have two forwards that clear 1300 TPE. The high end talent at forward is not as plentiful as other contenders in the league – but that didn’t stop them last season, so likely won’t this season either. One of their biggest weaknesses could also be unrelated to their team getting worse, but rather other teams getting better. If other teams are able to become more practiced in FHM or uncover optimal tactics for their teams, HAM could potentially become outclassed, as they only have the 9th highest rated team TPE in the league.

Average team TPE: 1106 (#8)

Average forward TPE: 1349 (#5)

Average defenseman TPE: 1168 (#9)

Average goalie TPE: 803 (#8)

Strengths: Manhattan has a strong roster for yet another year, specifically with regards to top end talent. Their top 5 forwards all boast 1400 TPE (ish) or higher, with Luke Thomason leading the way with an impressive 1900 TPE. On the back end, the Rage can ice two pairings of defenders over 1200 TPE, higher than most other teams in the league. Manhattan will likely run their top two lines as hard as they can take it, as like many other contenders, their third line/pairing is nothing too spectacular in terms of TPE.

Weaknesses: As mentioned above, Manhattan’s 3rd line depth is a little questionable. Their third defensive pairing should not see any minutes unless it is against weaker competition. Their third forward line, while not awful (around average TPE wise) qualifies as a weakness among contenders. As with some of the other stacked teams in the league, it feels like nitpicking when identifying weaknesses.

Average team TPE: 1203 (#3)

Average forward TPE: 1370 (#3)

Average defenseman TPE: 1400 (#2)

Average goalie TPE: 838 (#7)

Strengths: The best team in the regular season throughout S53, New England will be aiming to run it back again with their high end talent. Ola Wagstrom stands out for obvious reasons, as he crossed 2K TPE for the second time after hitting regression at the beginning of the offseason. He is joined 5 other skaters above 1500 TPE. That depth carries all the way down the lineup, as only two skaters fall below the average of 1108 TPE. The top pairing of Rex Kirkby and Guy Zheng is likely second only to Buffalo’s top duo of defenders, and New England’s likely top line is one of the best in the league. They also got even better in the goaltending department. Last season, Leitner put up some great numbers behind this #2 rated defensive core, and NEW went out and acquired Benjamin Blue, an almost 200 TPE increase.

Weaknesses: As was just mentioned, New England actually addressed their most glaring weakness (in terms of TPE) in the offseason, joining in on the trading party with Tampa Bay and slightly upgrading their goaltending by 200 or so TPE. And even still, despite a lower TPE, they had some great goaltending metrics last season, so it should be interesting to watch to see how much it can improve with Blue in net. Their weakness might be the lower end third line – but it is still above average, and only a weakness when compared to a few of the other title contenders.

Average team TPE: 564 (#16)

Average forward TPE: 622 (#16)

Average defenseman TPE: 460 (#16)

Average goalie TPE: 608 (#13)

Strengths: … This is a little awkward. Following a fire sale by tank commander and GM MCP, Tampa Bay is left with exactly zero players above the average TPE league wide. They do have four young forwards in the 900-1000 TPE range which are undoubtedly the bright spot of the roster, and will likely be relied on by Tampa if they are to win any games. Additionally, Leitner in net represents their highest TPE player, and put up some great numbers last season, albeit behind NEW’s incredible defense, and he’ll be leaned on hard in TBB to try and steal a few wins. To be frank, Tampa Bay is trying to lose, and icing several players under 300 TPE is indicative of that. I think it’s safe to say their biggest strengths are their tanking ability, as well as the odds at winning the draft lottery.

Weaknesses: Other than what is mentioned above, it feels almost mean to pick out weaknesses on Tampa Bay, as they are clearly not trying to be competitive. If we frame their season in that light, they may not have any weaknesses, as it is not likely anything stops them from being the worst team in the league right now. Maybe their biggest weakness is that they still have to win the draft lottery to guarantee themselves the 1 OA pick next season.

Average team TPE: 768 (#15)

Average forward TPE: 837 (#15)

Average defenseman TPE: 614 (#15)

Average goalie TPE: 855 (#5)

Strengths: In a similar if not identical situation to Tampa Bay, Toronto at least has some high quality pieces already in place on their roster. Mika Kandinsky and Bobby Lane are two stars in the making, and will be the forwards that Toronto builds around going forward. The other obvious standout is goaltender Harry Carpet who is the third ranked goalie by TPE in the league. He was likely the reason for every win they had last season and may be the key factor in any game that Toronto is able to steal in S54.

Weaknesses: Here we have a similar situation to Tampa, however not nearly as bad. The North Stars were able to sign veteran Sophia Bennett this offseason to help give the second line some punch, and that should help their forward depth a little. The true biggest weakness here is their defensive depth past young up and comer Ursin Zimmermann. Zimmermann is almost 300 TPE clear of the second highest TPE defender on the roster. As with Tampa, it is a little hard to judge Toronto as having a weakness when they aren’t trying to field a competitive roster.

SHL Western Conference:

Average team TPE: 1189 (#4)

Average forward TPE: 1295 (#7)

Average defenseman TPE: 1282 (#4)

Average goalie TPE: 989 (#3)

Strengths: The first of the Western Conference teams, Calgary has a very deep defensive core to go along with a strong top 6 offense. Leading the way is the trio of Maxime Bouchard, Brennan Kennedy Jr and Barry Batsbak, all over 1700 TPE. Their top 6 is rounded out by players all well over the 1108 TPE average (assuming Mike Izzy plays on the second line), and their defense consists only of players above the average TPE mark. League wide, their forward core and defensive unit are both above the leagues average. We would also be remiss if we did not mention perhaps their greatest strength – their goaltending. Kata Vilde is the second highest goalie by TPE and is primed to have an outstanding season behind the strong defense in front of him. This is another team that possesses both high end talent as well as team-wide depth, and they should be among the favorites from the west.

Weaknesses: Another deep contender, another team it feels impossible to find a weakness for. Being nitpicky, we can see that the third line for Calgary will consist of skaters in the 850-950ish range for TPE. This is not the worst thing in the world for a third line, however it is the closest that Calgary comes to a weakness here.

Average team TPE: 1070 (#10)

Average forward TPE: 1242 (#9)

Average defenseman TPE: 1179 (#8)

Average goalie TPE: 791 (#9)

Strengths: Similar to a few of the other mid level teams in the SHL, the Blizzard have some high end talent, but not as much depth as the top end teams. Tony Pepperoni, Karlstrabe Scholz, Julio Tokolosh and Brady McIntyre are the stars leading the way, and are the only players over 1300 TPE on the roster. They will be able to field 2 defensive pairings that are above league average TPE as well. Pepperoni finished #11 in scoring last year, with Scholz finishing 4th among defenseman, and those two will likely be relied on to hit the leaderboards again. Similar to HAM, it’s possible they have a strategic or tactical advantage as well, as they made it to the finals with a middle of the pack TPE team, including beating a strong CGY and LAP team, and getting more wins against HAM in the finals than BUF and NEW did combined during the two rounds before.

Weaknesses: For coming off of a Challenge Cup appearance, Edmonton has several glaring weaknesses. Their second line and second pairing depth is not bad – with all players checking in above average for TPE, however it falls off quickly after that. The third pair is well below average – which could pose an issue when facing deeper teams, and their 3rd line forward group will presumably feature 2 players below 1000 TPE as well. As well, their starting netminder, Emiko Spector, is the 9th ranked goalie by TPE – not great for a team that hopes to contend. She is young and improving, but it won’t help her case with the mid level defense in front of her.

Average team TPE: 1184 (#5)

Average forward TPE: 1329 (#6)

Average defenseman TPE: 1225 (#7)

Average goalie TPE: 998 (#2)

Strengths: Los Angeles is a team firmly in title contention. They only have one player over 1600 TPE (Philipp Winter), but they make up for it with 10 other players over 1200 TPE. To add to this, only two players check in below the 1108 average TPE mark, with one of them being backup goalie Nolan McMahon. Their depth and second tier talent is excellent, and the ability to play quality players up and down the lineup will be key for their contention.

Weaknesses: I feel like a broken record when talking about some of the top end contenders, but there really isn’t much to talk about here. Even their third defensive pairing – slightly over the average TPE – is on par with the other top end contenders. You could maybe make an argument that Knox Booth in net is a weak spot for the Panthers, however he is still 7th in TPE – even if he is not in the top tier TPE wise. The Panthers dominated corsi last season, but their biggest weakness was a tough time scoring. Nothing in their TPE indicates that the problem will persist through to this season, however they clocked in at 14th in scoring in the not-so-serious preseason.

Average team TPE: 781 (#14)

Average forward TPE: 903 (#14)

Average defenseman TPE: 876 (#14)

Average goalie TPE: 564 (#15)

Strengths: Minnesota is a rebuilding team, and as such has only a few bright spots. From the chart above, it is pretty clear from the color scale that Collin Gibbles, Mathias Seger and Noah Gallagher are the three players that stand out above the rest. Beyond that, all of their players are below the 1108 average TPE. The future may look bright for the Chiefs, but the present is lackluster.

Weaknesses: Where to begin… The spots that stand out the most are probably the center position and the third defensive pairing. Having a ~800ish TPE player be your top line center is not a recipe for success, as many teams don’t even have a forward on roster who is that low in TPE. On the rear end, Minnesota is icing two sub 500 players as their third line pairing, which is almost Tampa Bay bad. With a roster made up of mostly below average TPE players, Minnesota has a lot to work on post S54.

Average team TPE: 1283 (#1)

Average forward TPE: 1395 (#2)

Average defenseman TPE: 1246 (#6)

Average goalie TPE: 1208 (#1)

Strengths: New Orleans is one of the contenders in the SHL that has an extremely strong offense in terms of TPE. After trading for Olivier Cloutier in the offseason, New Orleans has 5 forwards above 1500 TPE – and their 6th forward is Michael Fox, who at 1450 TPE will round out the top 6 quite nicely. On paper, center appears to be a weakness, but with Nicholas Williams and Jimmy Slothface sliding over from their natural positions to man the pivot, New Orleans’ top 6 is locked and loaded. The other obvious strength for New Orleans is their goaltending. NOL’s goaltending TPE relative to league average is the highest relative value for any team or position in the league. That’s thanks to Aleister Cain, who’s the highest TPE rated goalie in the SHL and will be the lynchpin in their success. NOL’s high goaltending TPE results in them having the highest mean TPE roster in the SHL.

Weaknesses: While New Orleans’ defense was not mentioned above in their strengths, it doesn’t really qualify as a weakness either – rather ranking as a “pretty good but not great” unit. The only obvious weakness to nitpick here is the Specters third line of Mitchell van der Heijden, Thomas Vanice and Joe Kurczewski. This group is a mix of the old guard and the new, with van der Heijden being a rookie who just won the Iden Fallah award in the SMJHL last season, and Kurczewski playing in his 23rd season in the league. This group is below average TPE wise, but that ultimately shouldn’t be the biggest issue for New Orleans.

Average team TPE: 1107 (#7)

Average forward TPE: 1245 (#8)

Average defenseman TPE: 1383 (#3)

Average goalie TPE: 694 (#11)

Strengths: Maybe the exact opposite from New Orleans, San Francisco boasts a very good defense with a “good but not great” offense, outside of Piotr Czerkawski. Leopold Lockhart, Dominic Montgomery, Ray Bork and Charlie Schieck are a dominant top 4 defenders that might rival Buffalo as one of the best top 4’s in the league. Their 3rd pairing may not be above average TPE wise, but with such a high end top 4, it might not matter much for the Pride. San Francisco’s other strength might be its top line of Czerkawski, Jeff Brogen and Steven Moyer which will do a lot of the heavy lifting for the team on offense.

Weaknesses: The glaring weakness for the Pride is in net. San Francisco will go only as far as their goaltending will take them. Veteran Patrice Nadeau is in his last year before retirement, but at 723 TPE is one of the lowest TPE starters in the league. Youngster Ian Venables is not far behind, but still does not have the TPE to be an elite goaltender in S54. This is an area that the Pride would be wise to address if they intend on competing in S54. The only other area of weakness that stands out to me is the third pairing. As mentioned above, it might not prove to be a fatal flaw for the Pride, however it does stand out as a sore spot when a lot of the other contending squads are icing three pairs of 1000+ TPE defenders.

Average team TPE: 956 (#11)

Average forward TPE: 1120 (#12)

Average defenseman TPE: 1083 (#12)

Average goalie TPE: 664 (#12)

Strengths: Texas has been sneakily improving their team after being one of the bottom squads in the league for several seasons. They are starting to emerge from their rebuild, and do not look too bad as a result of that. The obvious bright spot is Andreas Kvalheim with 1952 TPE. He is one of the top TPE players in the league, and will be the shining star for Texas this season, without a doubt. Texas also has a few players above 1200 TPE that should help contribute to a decent season from the Renegades including Manuel Gotze, Harvey Danger, Nikolai Evans and Josef Kubinec. Their defense is surprisingly solid, and while they don’t have a high TPE star or pairing like a lot of the other teams, they only have one defender below the 1108 average TPE mark.

Weaknesses: The Renegades are not a contending team, so their weaknesses are not the end of the world for the improving squad. Their offensive depth – specifically their bottom 4 forwards is a little suspect, as they are all below average TPE wise. Not a huge deal considering Kaarlo Kekkonen and Alexander Wachter are two prospects on the rise, and should be above average TPE wise later on this season. Jean-Pierre Gay, the aforementioned lone defender below average when it comes to TPE is the only sore point on the defensive end.

Average team TPE: 918 (#12)

Average forward TPE: 1123 (#10)

Average defenseman TPE: 1118 (#11)

Average goalie TPE: 512 (#16)

Strengths: Winnipeg is caught in a tricky situation, as last season they were one of the “best of the rest” teams. Clearly better than the rebuilders, but not competitive enough to stick with the contenders. The bright spot is their top end players, as Goku Muerto, Commander Shepard, Nick Brain and Slip McScruff are premier talents all over 1500 TPE. After that there is a bit of a drop off, but there are still solid talents such as Adam Barron and Satoshi Zizagooney on the defensive side of things, as well as Calogero Crudelli and Ignatius Blunt on offense.

Weaknesses: Winnipeg’s depth is the major flaw that stands out here. Beyond the players mentioned above, all the other players on roster are below average TPE wise. Bale is an early callup from the SMJHL, so his 683 TPE is not awful in that context, but the rest of Winnipeg’s forward depth leaves a little to be desired. Their number 4 and 5 defenders (Gary Grease and Zlatan Ibrahimovic Jr.) are not far off average TPE levels – but their 6th defender enters the yikes territory with only 715 TPE to his name. Besides the lack of depth in Winnipeg, Their goaltending situation is what might limit them the most. Vivian Leblanc is a replacement level goalie, and may not have enough TPE to steal enough games for the Jets to be successful.

***WannabeFinn*** · 05-29-2020, 04:46 PM

Stonks

Sean · 05-29-2020, 04:57 PM

Great article! I just thought I'd let you know Emiko is a she, not a he! We definitely look to outperform our TPE totals again this season Smile

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

***bluesfan55*** · 05-29-2020, 05:03 PM

gotta carry joe k this season

ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs

SlashACM · 05-29-2020, 06:43 PM

I wonder what the lowest save percentage a 1700 tpe goalie has ever posted is Hmm

juke · 05-29-2020, 07:04 PM

05-29-2020, 04:57 PMTommySalami Wrote: Great article! I just thought I'd let you know Emiko is a she, not a he! We definitely look to outperform our TPE totals again this season

Oops, thanks for the correction! Fixed

suavemente · 05-29-2020, 09:01 PM

not sure if this is a fake English rule but if only listing one other person I thought you are supposed to say "myself" rather than "I" which is reserved for larger lists. Fantastic article!