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*Mutedfaith* · 06-19-2020, 07:43 AM

2600 words, ready for grading

I have analysed the S54 team budgets for all SHL teams, and compared it to their performance in the regular season so far. The budgets mentioned are based on the official budget sheets for the S54 season, excluding send downs, penalties or retentions. I am not responsible for any mistakes or miscalculations in these budgets or in my analysis. The teams are listed in alphabetical order.

Current ranking based on standings:[b]

1. Buffalo Stampede – 62 points in 38 games
2. Hamilton Steelhawks – 56 points in 37 games
3. Chicago Syndicate – 52 points in 37 games
4. New Orleans Specters – 51 points in 37 games
5. Los Angeles Panthers – 50 points in 37 games
6. Manhattan Rage – 50 points in 39 games
7. Edmonton Blizzard – 50 points in 40 games
8. Texas Renegades – 46 points in 38 games
9. New England Wolfpack – 45 points in 38 games
10. Calgary Dragons – 45 points in 39 games
11. San Francisco Pride – 44 points in 38 games
12. Winnipeg Jets – 27 points in 38 games
13. Minnesota Chiefs – 22 points in 37 games
14. Baltimore Platoon – 22 points in 38 games
15. Toronto North Stars – 13 points in 37 games
16. Tampa Bay Barracuda – 0 points in 38 games

[b]Current ranking based on budget
1. Buffalo Stampede – 72 Million
2. San Francisco Pride – 71.5 Million
3. Calgary Dragons – 70.5 Million
4. Los Angeles Panthers – 70 Million
5. Baltimore Platoon – 67.5 Million
6. Chicago Syndicate – 67.25 Million
7. Edmonton Blizzard – 67 Million
8. New Orleans Specters – 64.5 Million
9. Hamilton Steelhawks – 64.5 Million
10. Manhattan Rage – 64 Million
11. Winnipeg Jets – 63.5 Million
12. New England Wolfpack – 62.5 Million
13. Texas Renegades – 62 Million
14. Toronto North Stars – 58 Million
15. Minnesota Chiefs – 50.5 Million
16. Tampa Bay Barracuda – 41.5 Million

Baltimore Platoon

The Baltimore Platoon are currently in the bottom of the Eastern Conference, and far away from a playoff spot, with less than half the point total of the team in the 4th, and last, playoff spot. However, based on their budget and spending they are heavily underperforming. Their current budget of 67.5 ranks them in 5th in the league, and second in their conference. Having 5 forwards and 3 defensemen with a TPE value of over 1k, and 7 players in total on a 5M (or more) contract, there’s not much room for new players to improve their team next season. Given their lack of rookies with enough TPE to make an impact anytime soon does not bode well for the near future of the Baltimore team either.

Buffalo Stampede

Buffalo has the highest budget of all the teams in the league, spending 72 Million on their active roster this season, and they’re using it well. They currently have a 6 point advantage over their nearest competitor Hamilton and are flexing a win percentage of 0.816. Their spending is high because they invested it in quality players, having 8 players on their roster with 1700 TPE or more, and just 4 skaters below 1000 TPE. Weak spot for them is their goaltending, though Elizabeth Doyle is almost at 1000 TPE, and their strong defense has lead to Buffalo having the fewest goals against in the league.

Calgary Dragons

The Calgary Dragons have the third highest budget in the league, spending 70.5 million on this seasons roster. Based on this, we would expect them to end the season in second place in the Western Conference. They still have a star-goalie in Kata Vilde, and their defenders are all 1000 TPE or more. They also have no forwards with substantially less than 900 TPE. Despite all of this, they find themselves on the verge of missing the playoffs. Currently fifth in their conference, one point behind Texas and 1 point above San Francisco. Both other teams have played one less game though, so it’s going to be though for the Dragons to clinch that last playoff spot. Their scoring isn’t that bad, as their 132 goals scored puts them second in their conference behind Edmonton, but their defensive efforts need more attention as the only teams doing worse in their own end are Winnipeg and Minnesota.

Chicago Syndicate

Third in the league, and third in the Eastern Conference, the Chicago Syndicate are outperforming the expectations based on their budget. Their 67.25 Million budget would put them in 6th, right in between the Baltimore Platoon and the Edmonton Blizzard. Despite their modest budget, they have quite a few 1500+ TPE players and Swiss National Team goalie Tibuk Soonika in net with almost 1400 TPE. Having a strong core of S46-S47 players is really paying off for them now, leading to a defensively responsible game plan while outscoring every other team in the league.

Edmonton Blizzard

Currently in second place in their conference, the Edmonton Blizzard have 50 points in 40 games. Based on their win percentage, this means we can expect them to drop one more spot when the Los Angeles Panthers pass them, provided they pick up a point in one of their three games in hand. The Edmonton team has scored more tan any other team in their conference, and league wide are second in scoring. They’re also getting scored on a lot though. Their current roster holds mostly 1000 TPE or better players, including a 1075 TPE goalie However, they only have 4 players earning more than 5 million per season, and their 67 Million in budget used puts them right in 7th place, comparable to where they currently find themselves in the league standings.

Hamilton Steelhawks

The Hamilton Steelhawks seem to be pretty good at outperforming everyone on a low-medium budget. Currently spending the same amount on their roster as the New Orleans Specters, their 64.5 Million budget would put the right in the middle of the league. However, they’re one of the few teams keeping up with the Buffalo Stampede and are currently second in the Eastern Conference and the league with 56 points in 37 games and a 0.757 winrate. Their 83 goals against has them tied for third lowest, and they outscore all but two teams in the league. Key to this success? A solid group of active skaters, only two of which are below 1000 TPE, and a 1460 TPE goalie. In S55 7 of their players will be UFA if not re-signed to a new contract and with a 9.2 million spend on their send downs there’s not a lot of cash left to increase he salaries for those looking for more money. However, they also have several players in deep regression who may be thinking about retirement, and a decent number of S52-S54 prospects who can be called up if needed.

Los Angeles Panthers

70 Million in budget puts the Los Angeles Panthers around the fourth place in the ranking, and their 50 points in 37 games are just under par for the course. If they can turn their scoring up a notch they should be able to perform a little better than they currently do, as their goals against average is only beaten by the almighty Buffalo team. With a roster full of actives, and only their backup goalie at less than 900 TPE, it’s probably more tactics than actual roster strength at this point that’s holding them back. They don’t have a lot of prospects to call up in the next few seasons, with only one active S53 in their prospect pool, but the core of their team, especially the defence and goalies, is still young and can definitely hold out for a few more seasons.

Manhattan Rage

Currently holding the 4th playoff spot in the East, the Manhattan Rage are doing considerably better than their 10th ranked, 64 million budget would predict. They manage to squeeze 5 1500+ TPE players in that modest budget, mostly because of their top two players having taken the home team discount on their contracts. Next season, they’ll have to renew Roenick’s 7.5M salary, and find some cap space for their call ups, as the 1M available now isn’t enough to allow them to call up Samat Beibitzhanov to replace their inactive backup.

Minnesota Chiefs

Nothing could’ve been expected from the Minnesota Chiefs, with a budget of only 50.5 million. They dropped all the way to the last place in their conference, and are actually outperforming their budget rank by two places, and are definitely not making it to the post season.. With only a handful of active players in their current roster, they’re going to be preparing for next season when they’re likely to call up a handful of rookies. Looking at the future, their prospect pool holds 12 players for a budget hit of 19 million. At least three of those will be called up to replace inactives on the roster next season, with current Detroit winger Cal Labovitch being the most notable name. Provided their prospects stay active, the Minnesota Chiefs can look forward to a brighter future and should be able to set their sights on a playoff spot in a few seasons.

New England Wolfpack

The New England Wolfpack have a budget on the lower end of the league, spending only 62.5 million on their current roster. While their 45 points in 38 games ranks them 9th in the league, chasing Texas by 1 point for the 8th spot, it’s probably not going to be enough to secure a playoff ticket in the Eastern Conference. Despite 2083 TPE Ole Wagstrom, and only two of their skaters below 1000 TPE they’re going to miss the post season. They recently added defenseman Igor Volkov to their roster after the latter wanted to leave the Minnesota Chiefs, and it will be interesting to see how they’re going to fit the S52 class TPE leader Sven Yxskaft in with their already defensively stacked roster next season.

New Orleans Specters

New Orleans Specters’ budget of 64.5 million ranks them eight, ranking just above the Hamilton Steelhawks because of their cap penalties/retentions. Their strong roster, with several 1700+ TPE players and a 1756 TPE goalie, has them currently in fourth in the league and in first in the Western Conference. The gap to the 5th spot in their conference is only 6 points though, so they are far from safe yet. Maybe they can do even better next season, when Velveteen Dream will be called up from the juniors to fill the 3C spot.

San Francisco Pride

71.5 Million is what the San Francisco Pride are spending on their current roster. And those 71.5 Million aren’t really doing them any good at this point. With only 44 points in 38 games and a 0.579 win percentage, and the Pride just barely managing to outscore their opposition, having the second highest budget spend in the league isn’t really showing for them out on the ice. In terms of skaters, they shouldn’t have the problems they’re having, as all but four of them are 1100 TPE or more, but their two 700 TPE goalies aren’t doing them any favours so far this season. Good news for S52 goalie Cillian Kavanagh, who will be their highest TPE goalie when he gets the call up next offseason.

Tampa Bay Barracudas

The tank of tanks. A fish tank, if you want. With a budget spend almost 10 million lower than the second lowest, and having traded away all of their active players over 1000 TPE, it is no surprise the Tampa Bay Barracuda find themselves at the bottom of the pile pointless. And with none of their S52 prospects still active, it’s likely they’ll repeat this next season as well. Starting the season after they can call up a decent amount of prospects for a few seasons though, as they own the rights to 6 S53 and 5 S54 prospects in the juniors at the moment and have 9-10 1st round picks in the next two drafts combined. Tampa Bay management will have to do their best to keep all the prospects and current players active though, as another 0-50-0 season can very easily push some of them into inactivity or wanting to leave the team. With the team being under temporary management and looking for a new General Manager after their old one was forced to step down recently, this could prove to be a pretty heavy burden to bear the next few seasons.

Texas Renegades

A 62 million budget puts the Texas Renegades in 13th, right behind New England, but with 46 points in 38 games they’re currently keeping teams like San Francisco and Calgary away from a playoff spot despite their higher budgets. Thriving on good strategy and only one or two strong players, the core of their roster is still very young and can continue to grow for a few more seasons. They also have a good number of more than decent send downs lined up to join their ranks in the next few seasons and we can look forward to seeing them improve and maybe cause an upset in the postseason in a season or two.

Toronto North Stars

Another team on the low end of the budget spectrum are the Toronto North Stars. Their 58 million budget ranks them third to last, and their on-ice performance reflects that. Nevertheless, the growth compared to last season is there and with most of their team being S49 or younger, and a solid group of send downs, they’re likely to follow a similar path as the Minnesota Chiefs and will be challenging the rest of the league for a playoff spot in a few seasons.

Winnipeg Jets

The Winnipeg Jets 63.5 million roster value has not brought them what they expected. Despite a few high TPE players, they only gathered 27 points so far and are far, far away from contending for a playoff spot. They don’t have a lot of prospects to call up and change their destiny for the next few seasons although they’re going to get slightly better over the next few seasons as Strom Chamberlain will permanently take his spot between the pipes for them. He comes at a price though, as the goalie recently signed a contract that’ll see his salary spike to 7m per season for season S55 and S56.

Conclusion

Money can’t buy you a cup, but it surely makes it easier as long as you’re not using it as a substitute for strategy and tactics. The Buffalo Stampede show the combination of both can make you a real contender, while teams like the San Francisco Pride and the Calgary Dragons show money isn’t everything if you’re not spending it right. All in all, its’s going to be interesting to see the rest of this season unfold. The Hamilton Steelhawks are looking like a strong contender for another cup, despite their lower average TPE and not spending top dollar on their roster, while it’s going to be interesting to see who will secure the fourth playoff spot in the Western Conference. We can safely assume the Minnesota Chiefs, Winnipeg Jets, Tampa Bay Barracuda, Toronto North Stars and Baltimore Platoon are all out and done, while the New England Wolfpack still has some hope of the Manhattan Rage dropping a few points along the way in the East and the Texas Renegades are only leading the Calgary Dragons and San Francisco Pride by 1 and 2 points respectively. Will money prevail here, or will the younger, less expensive Texas team take the final playoff ticket? We’ll probably know it by the end of next week.