Let’s face it. Not every player can be rated at the top of their draft class. Sometimes, players fall down the rankings a little bit — sometimes, it’s because of a lack of name value, sometimes, it’s because of a slow start to their development. On occasion, it’s even because their name value is a little too strong. However, a lack of name value doesn’t mean a lack of quality, and sometimes excellent players can be found well into the second, third, and occasionally even the fourth rounds. At the end of a season, those players who got a head-start will almost always look the best. A player that joins mid-season or who hits a developmental hiccup might not fare as well on draft day, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have a successful career.

At a glance, it’s clear that this year has a fairly deep draft class. For that reason, we should expect a number of capable players to slip out of the first round — and out of the second round, even. With so much attention liable to be paid to those players currently drawing enough attention to be considered for the top three or so selections, it’s worth taking a moment to look at some of the less-publicized upcoming draftees. Players who, while they might not be viewed as future franchise players right now, have every opportunity to flip the script heading into their sophomore years in the SMJHL.

This list will not be exhaustive: there are a lot of players on the board, and sometimes the real hidden gems are the ones that not even scouts or media talking heads can pinpoint. But these are some of the names that could still be on the board a little later in the draft, who have a legitimate chance to make a difference on an SHL team. At least — as good a chance as anyone else. One season truly doesn’t offer much time to judge a player.


RW - Walter Burke - 249 TPE - Anaheim

Walter Burke very quietly put together a decent rookie season. Although he only played 41 games, he managed to collect 11 points in that span — 2 goals and 9 assists. As will very quickly become a theme on this list, Burke didn’t really have much of a chance to showcase his full potential this season. He played in a relatively minor for Anaheim, and as stated didn’t play a full season. However, he’s still very much a player in development, and his skill-set could be very tempting to a lot of teams. He’s a strong, pass-first winger who can be relied on to make plays almost entirely off his own stick.

Defense might be his main weakness as it stands, but that isn’t to say he’s awful in his own end. He’d more accurately be described as ‘rough around the edges’ there, but he’s got a lot of the right tools to succeed with a more two-way game, provided he hones them a little more. There’s no doubting that Burke is a little behind on his development compared to some of the premier wingers in his class, but he could still very well make an effort to catch up. Even if he doesn’t manage it, a very solid SHL career could await.

RW - Thomas Rose - 271 TPE - Anaheim

Thomas Rose is another Anaheim winger, but he’s a bit more well-rounded than Burke in the offensive end. He’s a capable passer and has a fairly good shot, but his real skill is playing off the puck. While he’s accomplished as a puck-handler, he makes a habit of shaking opposing defenders on a fore-check, making him a nightmare to guard. He’s also willing to use his 6’3” frame to screen the goaltender, a skill that will no doubt put him into the good graces of his coaches as he  looks to take on a larger role next season.

Some of that was already on display this season, in fact. In 50 games, he put up 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points. This was with fairly limited ice-time at just 13:03 minutes per game, and given he’s been putting a pretty good pace behind his development, it stands to reason he’ll be ready to make the jump to a more prominent offensive role next season. He’s not exactly an unknown quantity in the way that some names on this list are, but the possibility of picking Rose in the late first or second rounds has to be tempting for teams that need some added size in their forward corps.

LW - Lemo Pihl - 246 TPE - Anchorage

Pihl received under ten minutes a game this season, on a campaign that turned out to be just 46 games. In that time, he recorded 1 goal and 5 assists for 6 points. Those numbers might not be that impressive, but given the position he was played in, they aren’t too surprising. Pihl is another player who might not have the kind of advantage in development that some of the top players had, but he has been continuing along at a steady pace. He’s improving, and just because he won’t be SHL ready next season doesn’t mean he’s not going to arrive in the same place.

What sets Pihl apart from the other wingers noted so far is that he has a much more physical edge to him. He’s best described as a checking winger, willing to throw around the body or go to the stick depending on the situation, and he’s talented both in his own end and on the attack. He’s a decent offensive player in his own right with some solid passing skills, and he’s shown some willingness to play in-front of the net. Next season, Pihl could be expected to play in a checking role and on the penalty kill, but he’s not far off from a top six position in the SMJHL — so that’s certainly a possibility as well.

Pihl is liable to attract interest from any team that needs a bit more physicality in its line-up. Because of his style of play, he won’t need to be a superstar to make an impact on the ice, and he might actually be SHL-ready before some of his more fast-paced peers, if he continues to be a constant face in the team gym.

G - Chimkin Tendy - 258 TPE - Anchorage

Goaltenders are particularly tough to place in the draft. In a lot of cases, even a goaltender who appears to be a future franchise player will wind up suffering on the draft board. There have been a lot of seasons where goalies were aplenty and positions were lacking, and there are even instances of teams opting to go with worse goaltenders to spend more of their salary on their skaters. The value of a goaltender is a constant roller-coaster ride.

As far as junior goaltenders go, Tendy seems to have a good future ahead of him. He got to start ten games for Anchorage in his rookie season, posting a .910 save percentage and a 2.31 goals against average on a record of 5-4-0 — one game presumably being in relief of his starter. He’s already fairly developed as a goaltender, and his only real weakness is in playing the puck — either handling it himself, or using his stick for a pokecheck. But the SMJHL is largely a time to really prioritize your training, and those skills seem to be commonly the ones that fall through the cracks. Tendy could make a very good pick up for any team that’s looking to develop a potential replacement goaltender for an aging starter, or even as a 1B a little earlier than that if need be. Either way, it seems likely that Tendy will one day be a prominent SHL starter, even if he slips out of the top half-dozen picks.

LW - Colin Fuhr - 235 TPE - Anchorage

Although Colin Fuhr played a full season in the SMJHL, he wound up falling behind compared to some of his peers in training. Despite that, he had a pretty good season for a rookie. In 50 games, he scored 11 goals and added 6 assists for 17 points. His 20% shooting percentage may not be sustainable with a larger volume of chances, but it’s still at least somewhat telling — of a player who is already fully willing to take his scoring chances when he gets them.

Fuhr’s main problem is that he hasn’t developed as far as much of his draft class. But, he’s still on an upwards trajectory and with the right coaching, that might not matter after a few seasons. As it stands, he appears to be on track to become a capable two-way winger at the SMJHL level, with the potential to make the jump into the SHL after a full-length stay in juniors. He does a little bit of everything, and so he can rely on his overall versatility as a player to appeal to SHL managers if he goes a little later.

C - Josh Dolphin - 252 TPE - Colorado

Josh Dolphin is easily described a classical play-making center. He has a decent two-way game, he’s a capable athlete, and he has a decent shot to his game — but when he gets into the opposing zone, he’s going to try to make a pass to one of his wingers, or back to the point. He’ll make things happen off his own stick, or he’ll dish it out and screen the goaltender. If you can picture in your head what the archetype hockey center looks like, then Dolphin probably fits that mould.

He’s another player who, while he might not be the most well known name, looks like he could be on track to forge himself a very solid junior career, which could naturally transition into an SHL one. He played a meagre 6 minutes per game this season, but in that time he managed to post 7 assists — a little highlight of what he will no doubt be capable of once Colorado gives him a bit more of a chance to shine. A player of his type should also be appealing to a wide variety of SHL teams, especially if they can get him with a pick out of the first round.

RW - Eero Makinen Jr - 242 TPE - Colorado

As with Dolphin, Makinen Jr is a player who found himself with extremely limited minutes as a member of the Raptors. With that limited time, he managed a respectable 3 goals and 6 assists for 9 points. Yet another player who, once he’s given more of a chance to shine, will probably wind up posting points aplenty. As is, he was trusted to play some special teams time for the Raptors, even with his meagre even strength ice-time.

At this point in his career, Maikinen appears as another decent two-way type who hasn’t done a whole lot to really distinguish his game. However, that’s also what’s most promising about him. He might not have any single overriding strength, but he doesn’t really have any serious gaps in his game. He’s not an excellent defender yet, nor is he ready to win any points races. But the raw skills are clearly there that, after this off-season, he should be much closer. Especially given he’s got a penchant for unselfish play so far.

D - Anna Maier - 211 TPE - Detroit

We’ve had a few players on this list already who haven’t put up full seasons, and Anna Maier is no exception. Rather, she’s more of an extreme example. A somewhat undersized defender from Germany, Maier is already pretty solid in her own end. She knows where to be and how to read an opposing play, and she’s got a decent mix of skills to help disrupt oncoming attackers. We can also see the beginnings of a more playmaking-oriented style of play in the offensive zone, but it will probably take a little more work before the Falcons trust her to play the role of a powerplay quarterback or anything of that nature.

Of course, she’s already putting up very solid point totals as a defender, even if she’s had such a late start to her junior career, and has fallen behind quite a bit as a result. In 31 games, she put up 2 goals and 6 assists for 8 points, while logging about 15:52 minutes per game, including some time on the penalty kill. With a bit more work, Maier has the skill to become a star in her own right — players who fit Maier’s description are always the most interesting to watch. Her draft stock will probably suffer from the late start, but that could go on to have little to no impact on her later career. It’s one of the ways you get late draft steals.

Of course, Maier could also fizzle out. But the potential is there.

C - Monkey Mann Jr - 250 TPE - Detroit

As with most rookie forwards, Mann Jr didn’t have a whole lot of time to really wow audiences. Even so, he also put up decent starting numbers, with 3 goals and 4 assists for 7 points in his 48 game season. In that time he did end up a negative 16, which is a stat he’s probably going to try to forget come next season, but that mostly reflects the role he was placed in. Of course, not every player put in a depth role puts up that bad of a plus/minus, but Mann Jr is a little different.

Specifically, Mann Jr is maybe one of the most single-minded offensive players in the draft. He’s a center that knows exactly what he wants to do — he wants to set up in the offensive zone and make plays. In terms of fancy passing plays, puck-handling, and even play off of the puck in the offensive end, Mann Jr is already a standout. But along with that, he really doesn’t have much interest in playing defense. He puts up an effort, but the training isn’t there in the same way — it’s less an important part of his game, and more something he has to get over with to go back on the attack.

If he gets a chance to play in a more decidedly offensive role, there’s no doubting Mann Jr will succeed. He’s already good enough that plenty of wingers would probably be happy to rely on him as a set-up guy. Some SHL teams might be worried at his lack of defense, but there’s a benefit to it — that kind of extreme specialization, in his case into offense and playmaking, might actually make him SHL-ready faster than some of his class. He doesn’t have to put extra time into developing a two-way game. He just has to put up points.

C - Daedalus James - 258 TPE - Detroit

James is another Falcons center, but he doesn’t really fit the same mould as his predecessor on this list. As an offensive player, James has already developed a couple skills his dynamic counterpart hasn’t: in particular, he’s willing to use his size to get in-front of the net and make opposing goaltender’s lives that much worse. He’s still a pretty decent playmaker, but it isn’t something he’s quite so wired into. His offense is, truth be told, a lesser part of his game compared to his defense.

While James might prefer to be described as a two-way center, he’ll probably appeal to SHL teams primarily for his potential use as a defensive center at this point in time. That’s liable to change as he hones his skill-set, but as it stands he’s a player who knows where to be and when, is willing to throw his weight around but knows when such a move would put him out of position, and he can even block shots. You didn’t see much out of him this season given his poor icetime, and he also recorded a lamentable plus/minus, but that’s just the sort of thing you have to expect from a rookie in a bottom six role.

LW - Cenek Iqbal - 223 TPE - Detroit

Name value will make or break Iqbal’s draft stock, that much is fairly clear. While on the ice he’s proven he’s a fairly good young scoring winger, tallying 3 goals and 7 assists in 50 games for another decent rookie outing with next to no ice-time, there’s no getting around his slow development. He’s nowhere near the top of his class, and his player agency has had a reputation for very short-lived players of late. At a glance, Iqbal is a diminutive but speedy winger capable of developing into a solid goal scorer. However, there’s a lot of risk involved with selecting him, and so it’s likely he’ll fall to later in the draft.

There’s no doubt that with the right motivation, and perhaps the right manager, Iqbal can better reflect the success his namesake managed to find at the highest level. But that noted name value also comes with a few built in rivalries, which could prompt teams to overlook him. So, with Iqbal, you’ve got a mix of problems: his slow development, the high perceived risk of early retirement, along with the poor track record of a lot of second and third generation players. If a team is able to grab him with a late round pick, they could have a chance at developing a player with capabilities far beyond that. But more than most prospects in the draft, this pick will be seen as a roll of the dice.

D - Mikhael Petrov - 258 TPE - Kelowna

There are an almost wearying amount of Petrovs in this year’s draft class, enough so that claiming any of them are anything other than highly touted picks might seem a little silly. However, Mikhael Petrov might actually stand to fall a little further in the draft, just due to his lesser development compared to some of his more prominent relatives. As an SMJHL rookie, he had a pretty good year all around, with 2 goals and 9 assists for 11 points as a defenseman. He also recorded a plus 8 rating, adding some solid depth to the Knights’ defensive end.

Those points only tell half the story, however. Petrov is a pretty solid defensive player, first and foremost: he can log big minutes, and he can be relied on to play a reliable, low-risk game for most of that. He’s also shown the ability to throw some solid hits, and he looks to be of a mind to improve that ability further down the road. He isn’t going to be headlining any power-plays in the near future, but Petrov could make the jump into the SHL as a bottom pairing, penalty-kill specialist sooner rather than later, while he develops into more of a clear-cut, top four candidate. Provided all is well in the Petrov clan, he should be set to be a good player in the future — and depending on where he goes, could stand to not just be a ‘hidden gem’ in the draft, but a hidden gem amongst the overwhelming number of Petrovs.

RW - Kynwyl Pearce - 243 TPE - Kelowna

Although we already discussed Pearce, and Petrov for that matter, in a previous article, it’s worth taking a clearer look at him outside of his post-season performance. On the whole, Pearce had a very good start to his SMJHL career with 9 goals and 11 assists for 20 points. He did all of this playing at around 12 minutes per game, with a rather high shooting percentage of 16.36%. Pearce, as has been stated in the past, is going to be a popular player style for a lot of coaches: he gets in-front of the net and he causes problems for opposing goaltenders. He can score off a deflection or in low, and he’s at least somewhat responsible in his own end.

Better yet, Pearce has already established himself as a capable forechecker, and should he develop his fledgling physical edge, could fit in as that rough edge that a lot of teams could desperately use. His development hasn’t been the fastest, but that’s what good managers and good locker rooms are for. Pearce might go a little later, but he’ll almost certainly have a shot at making an SHL roster after a full SMJHL tenure.

LW - Logan Wong - 207 TPE - Kelowna

Wong is one of the lesser-developed players that should still be on the radar for teams picking later in the draft. He’s a winger with some decent size, deceptive speed, and a deadly shot. He’s already capable this early in his career of being a primary option on the power-play if any team has the space. Unfortunately, Kelowna didn’t have much room to use him due to the depth of their line-up, and his slow development meant restricted ice-time on limited games: in the end, he tallied 1 goal and 3 assists for 4 points in 21 games. It’s a campaign that Wong is fully capable of bettering with a bit more effort in practice.

Due to his slow start, Wong will be looked at as an uncertain property: his name value and his single-minded scoring outlook are both points in his favour, but most managers will be worried over how his present development stacks up against others in his draft class. But there are encouraging signs, and he’s arguably been putting more effort into his training recently than he has over the course of the season, and that alone could turn him into one of the better steals deeper into the draft.

G - C.K. Supernaw - 237 TPE - Nevada

Supernaw is another goaltender, and as such, everything that we went over about goaltenders in the draft stands for him as well. He’s a relatively unknown quantity at this point, but Nevada did have him in the net for 13 games — though not all of those were starts. In that time, he registered 2 wins, 8 losses, and 2 overtime losses with a save percentage of .914 and a goals against average of 3.64. If you think those numbers look strange, then you would be right — the simple fact of the matter is that Nevada let up so many shots this season that it simply didn’t matter how good their goaltenders were. You can’t stop every puck, and if you’re being showered with attempts, eventually they’ll start going in.

So, Supernaw registered a solid save percentage with a poor goals against average and an awful win-loss record. But the Battleborn as a whole only went 10-36-4 on the season, managing a meagre 24 points. Given GAA and win records are partially team stats, I think it’s fair to say Supernaw was a bright spot in a bad season. At 6’7”, he’s a massive goaltender with solid all-around instincts. He could do with improving his lateral movement somewhat, and as noted before, virtually no rookie goaltenders are good at moving the puck. But, overall, he’s already turned himself into a decent 1A-1B type at the SMJHL level. Given he’ll like drop in the draft, any team that’s looking at an aging starter would be advised to take a chance on him. He might just be the one to claim that spot next.

LW - Chad Danger - 259 TPE - Nevada

Despite their poor season, Nevada actually has quite a few good rookies on its roster. Chad Danger isn’t the most well-known of them, but that goes with the theme of the list. In 50 games he managed 9 goals and 13 assists for 22 points, with a negative 21 rating — emblematic, as noted with Supernaw, of the overall poor state of the team. Of those points, 3 were on the power-play, as he was given an immediate role there. At nearly 16 minutes per game, Danger didn’t face the severe ice-time restrictions some of his peers did, and so we have a bit better of an idea of what kind of player he’s going to turn out to be.

Well, he’s a 6’4” winger who’s not afraid to plant himself in-front of the net, but who’s deceptively fast and can escape his man to get into the open areas for a shot. Once he’s rooted, he has a laser of a shot and can be relied on to convert on his chances at a decent percentage. His defensive game is decent, enough so that he’s not exactly a liability on the ice. He won’t turn any heads with his passing plays, but that’s not what teams will be looking at him for — he’s always going to be looking to score first, and pass later. Or just pass off the pads of the goaltender for a rebound. Danger will probably be a very solid SHL player one day.

C - Kenji Sugimoto - 208 TPE - Nevada

While Sugimoto didn’t play a full season, he did get a fair chance to actually play in the games he was given. As another Nevada winger, he didn’t have to struggle against more veteran players in the way that players on more established teams did. In what wound up being a 36 game season, Sugimoto put up 1 goal and 8 assists for 9 points, on a negative 22 rating. We’ve already said enough about Nevada’s reasons for bad team statistics. So, those stats are pretty standard for this article so far, but Sugimoto’s draft stock is liable to be hurt by his lesser development at this point in his career. He got a late start, and it shows.

But, drafts are about potential rather than immediate impact, and given Sugimoto is still developing at a reasonable pace, he should be given a serious look by SHL teams looking to shore up their depth chart. While the SMJHL has no shortage of decent, all-around wingers, Sugimoto breaks that mould somewhat by being a spectacular passing player who could do with some improvement just about everywhere else. He can handle the puck well and he knows how to run an offense, but he’s a little lost in his own end, and he can be knocked off of the puck a little too easily. Those impressive passing skills will no doubt carry him into next season in a more prominent role, and once the rest of his game catches up, he’s going to be looking more and more SHL ready. Players at his early stage of training have turned out before, and they will continue to do so — and with luck, Sugimoto will be no different.

RW - Kyosti Karjalainen - 170 TPE - Nevada

If Sugimoto is early in his development, then Kyosti Karjalainen has barely even begun. An even more single-minded offensive player than his fellow in Nevada, Karjalainen plays a pass-first game with virtually no defensive instincts to speak of. He wants to rack up assists and stay in the opposing zone for as long as possible, and once the play goes the other way, he’s as good as a pylon. But that’s something that coaching and a bit more development will help to iron out, and as it stands, Karjalainen is a bit more of a raw talent than most players are at this point in their rookie season.

So, there’s a lot for him to work on. He needs to learn to play better defense, he needs to improve his physical conditioning — mostly in the weight room and with his skating. He’s got a decent top speed, but he lacks the explosiveness you need to really capitalize on the counter-attack at the SMJHL level. Those are things that no doubt Nevada will be going over with him this off-season. Given his decent size, he could also stand to improve his play in-front of the opposing net, but that’s secondary to the overall gym work required.

At this point, there’s no doubting that Karjalainen will fall in the draft. But, in a testament to just how deep the draft really is, he’s still got the potential to turn into a decent SHL roster player. He’s facing an uphill battle compared to some of the top picks, but he’s every bit as capable. Expect him to go late to a team with the confidence required to really work at developing an unknown player like him.

RW - Zach Dolphin - 211 TPE - Quebec City

Another Dolphin. Zach had a bit of a better season overall than his counterpart, notching 8 goals and 10 assists for 18 points with a negative 14 rating. He also showed a surprising shot-blocking prowess with 71 on the season — a rather misleading statistic. Dolphin isn’t a defensive player overall. Rather, he’s just a little more brave and a little more willing to sacrifice the body. That means he’s probably going to develop into a better two-way player with a little more time, but for now he’s an unpolished talent with a primary interest in scoring goals.

And, with 8 in his rookie campaign, he’s clearly capable of just that. The question for Dolphin will be whether he is able to gain enough of a pace in his training to reasonably fit in to an SHL roster in three or four seasons. The smart money is on yes, if he can continue at a fair pace — but that’s never guaranteed. His draft stock is liable to be fairly low, but his potential still has to be viewed as at least SHL-level. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the question isn’t so much how far could he go — it’s how far is he willing to try to go.

D - Bud Weiser - 251 TPE - St. Louis

Bud Weiser is a strange player, at first glance. Although he mostly markets himself as a defensive type, he doesn’t have much of a physical game compared to other players at his size. His shot is a little lacking for a defenceman, but he has some decent passing instincts. In his own end, he’s got solid positioning and he knows when and how to block shots when needed. You can generally rely on him to play a safe game, and he doesn’t usually put himself out of position with any reckless hits, relying instead on his superior stick work.

That stick-work is the core of what makes Weiser a solid prospect. Although he’s not quite skilled enough offensively to be considered a proper two-way player, his particular toolset makes him something of a counter-attacking defender, if that makes any sense. He’s good at being the defender who breaks up a play and gets it ahead to a speedier winger, to initiate a play that could result in scoring. He doesn’t always eat up all the points from that, but his play did earn him a solid 3 goals and 9 assists as a rookie — granted, it was on nearly 19 minutes of ice-time as St. Louis really started to rely on his skills.

So, Weiser isn’t exactly an unknown in the way that some names on this list are. He’s had plenty of chance to shine, and he’s made good on at least some of those chances. He might need to put a little more work into developing to catch up with some of the other selections in the draft, but he’s already making something of a name for himself. Given he’s another player liable to slip in the draft somewhat, he could well make some team in need of defencemen down the line very happy. He won’t be in the SHL next season, and probably not even the season after that, but there’s a solid chance that he makes it. Moreso than his draft position will be liable to reflect.

RW - Markleesio Hopscotch - 187 TPE - Vancouver

Another winger with decent size, something of a trend in this year’s draft, Hopscotch is another unknown — a player who has developed at a slow pace, without much of a real chance to show his skills. In 30 games with Vancouver, he scored 3 goals and 3 assists for 6 points. Not bad, all things considered. He’s already demonstrated that he has a good shot and a nose for the net, and although he could do with improving his passing somewhat, and definitely needs work defensively, some of what he needs to succeed is already there.

But, of course, he’s already pretty far behind his draft class. More-so even than some of the other question marks in this draft. But that kind of adversity should be something Hopscotch takes as motivation, rather than a source of discouragement. He’s going to go fairly late, and that means he has a chance to start his career as an SHL prospect with low expectations and the facilities and expertise needed to exceed them.

It’ll be a long road for Hopscotch to contend with the rest of his draft class, but he’s definitely worth taking a risk on, especially if you’re a team with the right staff to spur a player into heavier training.


This list has not been exhaustive by any stretch of the imagination. Going through every single player who’s likely to be left out of the top rounds in the coming mock drafts would take a whole lot more time and space than we have here today. This draft is looking like it has the potential to be exceptionally deep — this year was a bad one to trade away your second and third round picks. In fact, it might even have been a bad one to trade away fourths, depending on how lucky a team is (or how good its scouting is — but to be honest, most late round steals are more luck than scouting).

It is inevitable that some of the players on this list will bust and fail to make it to the SHL. Some might see their development grind to a halt this off-season, or sometime in the next season or two. Some might make it as depth players at best — the SHL has expanded, and that should be an encouraging sign for a lot of the lower round picks. But it’s still a difficult league to star in.

Even if there are draft steals to come that have escaped this list, and even if many of these players fail to live up to their potential, the key you should really be taking away from all of this is that there’s always talent to find outside of the first round. Some teams trade their picks too readily, willing to dismiss the idea that a second, third, or even fourth round player is really going to turn into anything valuable. But every now and then, you get a special draft class. At a glance, S56 is going to be one of those.


It’s easy to look at a draft that’s gone by and discuss who the steals were and who the busts were. It’s much harder to figure out who’s going to turn out and who isn’t when you’re in the moment. Given the extensive number of players on this list who started late or who had lulls in their development, it’s worth at least considering the role that plays in draft stock — and the role it really doesn’t play in the span of an entire career. Sure, if you get the best head-start possible and join a team as a DFA for that extra time, get a full off-season of training in before your SMJHL rookie year, and then keep at it for your entire career, your full potential is going to be a little higher than that of a player who starts late. But if you have a ten to fifteen season long career, that’s a lot of time to make up that difference or negate it — and sometimes those high earning players wind up burning out sooner rather than later.

As a case study on this, I’m going to risk being a little selfish and look at the S24 SHL Entry Draft. Randy Randleman was selected first overall, and went on to have one of the best careers in league history. Nobody is going to dispute that ranking. Damien Wert was selected second overall, and he also had a very solid career — 563 points across sixteen SHL seasons, including lengthy stays in West Kendall and Toronto. At third overall, we have Beau Ballard who fell off somewhat. He played just seven seasons in the league after joining as a true rookie. Although he had a poor first two seasons, his career flourished in Portland where he became a perennial 40 point scorer.

Then, he retired.

The uncertainty of top picks is even clearer at number four, when Winnipeg selected a certain Dambach who went on to tally just 62 points in a six season SHL career. Brandon Girard, who appeared to be a lock at number five, would go on to retire early after a lull in his development led to a sharp decline. He played just two seasons for Hamilton before calling it quits. Meanwhile, at thirteenth overall and fourteenth overall you had Winston Windsor and Anton Federov respectively. Windsor played thirteen seasons and notched 459 points while Federov played 14 seasons and added 289 points — though at his high, he recorded nearly a point per game for Los Angeles.

Now, Season 24  turned out not to be a particularly deep draft. But even in that draft you had top picks busting or retiring early, and second round picks going on to have long careers, in some cases more successful than their more well-known counterparts. Windsor was, as many of the players on this list are, a player who joined mid-season and did not have as much of a chance to develop before his draft came along. Even so, he went on to have a pretty good career for himself. So how does that all relate to this year’s draft?

Well, to players who have joined late and are worried about their low draft stock — don’t be. You have an entire career to change the narrative. And to general managers looking at how best to spend their picks, it’s a warning to look at personality, activity, and potential over who has the highest numbers on draft nights. Sometimes, it’s not going to turn out. Nobody could have predicted Girard, for example, falling off. But could  the same be said for some of the other names who busted early? Not necessarily.

Every draft has hidden gems, and every draft has high profile busts. Try to look past the raw numbers and early advantages to the potential of what each pick could be. Filling out your roster with future stars takes more than a spreadsheet with a numbers-comparison.

6526 Words