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soevil · 07-06-2023, 03:16 PM

For my second deep dive project I wanted to look at a series of games between two teams during the S71 regular season and playoffs. The Regina Elk and Anchorage Armada played 6 regular season games against each other and then faced off in the first round of the SMJHL Playoffs for a total of 12 games. Additionally, the teams’ records were similar in that they finished 8th (Elk) and 9th (Armada) in final standings with 31 wins each with Regina having 28 losses (7 overtime) and Anchorage having 32 losses (3 overtime). In the first game between the two teams, the Elk set the tone with 5 first period goals to the Armada’s 2. Although Anchorage would battle back to make it a 6-4 game by the final horn. For the regular season, however, that would be the only win that the Regina Elk would have over the Anchorage Armada. That’s right, the Armada would go on to win the next 5 meetings between the two teams, with scores of 3-0, 5-2, 6-3, 8-4, and a 3-2 overtime victory.

If we take a closer look into the compiled statistics of the teams’ matchups, maybe we can find out what caused the Elk to fare so poorly against the Armada. For the most part, the two teams had very similar metrics in what I found to be the “important” stats. This included Shots on goal, Faceoff win rate, Hits, Penalty Minutes, and Give/Take aways. On the season the two teams split faceoff wins nearly even with the Elk receiving the slight edge, winning 50.8% of faceoffs. This leads me to believe it was likely a nonfactor in the series. The Elk did manage to also out-hit the Armada, with 208 hits to 192. This also seems like it is too close to have any meaningful impact. Somewhat tied to Hits, Penalty Minutes was where the first major indicator of what went wrong for the Elk lays. The Elk had a total of 40 PIM in the 6-game series compared to the Armadas 20. This created more opportunity for the Armada to score man-up goals. Another important factor was give aways and takeaways. The Elk gave the puck over a total of 57 times to the Armada’s 48, while the Elk only forced 43 takeaways to the Armadas 45. The -14 turnover differential for the Elk compared to the -3 for the Armada is somewhat significant, but not the most important factor.

Although it was close, the Elk outshot the Armada over the 6 game regular season series with 215 shots on goal to 206. The important differentiation here is the shooting percentage. With a combined 17 goals, the shooting percentage of the Elk was a measly 7.9%. When compared to the Armada’s 14% (29 goals on 205), it is nearly doubled! In the regular season, the quality of shots taken by the Armada were definitively superior, and to me, is the key reason for the Armada’s success against the Elk.

All in all, the regular season would be moot when the teams met in the playoffs. After falling to 1-2 in the series, the Elk defeated the Armada in the final 3 games of the playoff series to advance to round 2. (548 words)

*CptSquall* · 07-07-2023, 09:33 AM

Approved, +5 TPE to @soevil

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