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roastpuff · 10-04-2023, 12:00 AM

The First Nine Games of S73 Detroit Falcons via Advanced Stats

Taking a look at the Detroit Falcons two weeks into the season, they have managed to play the most games out of anyone thanks to several back to backs, and the team therefore finds itself in an unenviable position of being dead last in the SMHJHL thanks to a 1-7-1 record. What can we draw from the first 9 games of the S72 season for the Detroit Falcons after what many would say was a great draft?

Using the advanced stats as our easy way to view the nine games, we can see that the PDO charts have most of the players below average, with only Zedward Zilliams above 100 PDO, and Mephistopheles Morgonstjarna smack dab in the middle. This means that the players are suffering from below average performance, and that hopefully a regression will be coming in the future to help boost the team back up the standings.

Taking a quick peek at the Corsi numbers, we can see that the older players, such as Zedward Zilliams and The Murray are leading the team in terms of Corsi possession, but even they are still suffering from bad puck bounces as their Goals For and Goals Against numbers illustrate. Looking at the CF% Rel to see who’s having a better impact, two players stand out: Emil Karlsson, the rookie 3rd line center, has a positive rate, currently fourth best on the team, which is outstanding. On the other hand, Martins Priede, also freshly drafted, has the worst CF% Rel on the team, which might be dragging his line down. Marek Carda isn’t far behind Priede, and this trend needs to be turned around quickly in order to stem the bleeding. One other item that Priede needs to work on is his discipline – he is currently fourth in the leaderboards of the league in penalty minutes, which is not something to be happy with. With the current penalty kill woes that the Falcons are experiencing, the time spent in the sin bin is costing the whole team in easy goals against and lost games.

The penalty kill also seems to be where a lot of the damage was done to the Falcons, as with a 66.7% rating (22/33 killed) they are the second worst rated penalty kill team, only bested (worsted?) by the Kelowna Knights who have 64.7% on the man disadvantage. However, Kelowna have only taken half as many penalties as Detroit (17 for Kelowna, 33 for Detroit), and the extra goals given up by Detroit could have swung some of the closer games their way instead of costing them the game. Perhaps there needs to be a shake up of personnel for the special units, although the power play special teams is doing just slightly below average with a 15.6% rating, tenth in the league. The first unit needs to be more efficient with the time that they are allotted and show more than what they have so far. This is especially true when they have the easier games against weaker opponents.

Being that we are currently only one-sixth of the way through the season, this isn’t the deepest of deep dives, but it provides a look at what struggles the young Falcons have been facing, and what they need to improve to fix their problems.

559 words

Aephino · 10-05-2023, 07:53 AM

Those PKs are BRUTAL

*CptSquall* · 10-07-2023, 10:25 AM

Approved.

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