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ibuprofenaddict · 10-04-2023, 03:09 PM

Squidwardo Tentaclés: Is his Blistering Start Sustainable?

With the 21st overall pick in round two of the SMJHL entry draft held this past offseason, the Yukon Malamutes called a surprising name: Squidwardo Tentaclés. Tentaclés, originally anticipated to be picked in the 3rd or 4th rounds, had just wrapped up a highly prolific season in the Eastern European Hockey League. Despite the Offense on display, the Latvian was expected to take on more of a shutdown role as a rookie to the SMJHL. Instead, he has burst out of the gate, tallying 6g-5a-11p in Yukon's first 8 games, the leading rookie in points through the leagues' opening stanza, while also racking up 31 hits to lead the entire league - both rookies and veterans.

So can he keep it up? All signs point to...maybe. Currently riding shotgun on the team's top line with second year center Florian Soderberg-Motyla and All-League right winger Theodore Svatos, Tentaclés has been put in a position to e. Reporters at Yukon's latest practices say that Squidwardo has been left off the powerplay units and is on the second penalty killing line. While this deployment helps him to focus on keeping up with the high-flying Yukon first line, it also serves to limit the amount of stat padding he may be able to accomplish with more powerplay time. Currently averaging just 4 seconds per game on the man advantage, it will be interesting to see if his deployment changes at he adjusts to the rigors of the SMJHL. If he can gain more powerplay time, it stands to reason that he could potentially keep up his current pace or even accelerate, much like what was seen in Brad Marchand's Offensive output when Claude Julien finally allowed him to be more involved in man-advantage situations.

If this is the case, what are the arguments against Tentaclés continuing at his current pace? Well, for one, shooting percentage. Squidwardo is currently riding at a 22.2% rate, with 6 goals on 27 shots. Currently in the league, there have been 348 goals scored across 3,405 shots on net, for an average shooting percentage of just 10.2%. If the player were shooting at the league average rate, he'd only have 3 goals at this point, and would be on pace for 23 goals across the full 66 game schedule. Tentaclés is currently on a 50 goal pace as a rookie, which is getting toward Selanne territory. It would be a truly amazing achievement for the young Latvian.

In addition to a possibly unsustainably high shooting percentage, the fancy stats are also currently not in his favor. Tentaclés is boasting a PDO of 114.6, which is 14.6 point above the expected output of 100. This means that Yukon has been prolific offensively and/or solid defensively when Tentaclés has been on the ice. A lot of times, we also use PDO to show 'luck' in hockey. Are the bounces going Squidwardo's way in early season action? The red flags don't stop there: Current stats show that Tentaclés' Goals for per 60 is at 7.4, while his goals against per 60 is only 2.6. While this looks dominant, it should also be noted that during his ice time Squidwardo is below the mean on corsi and fenwick for percentages, at 45.7% and 46.8% respectively. These statistics say that Yukon should rightfully be getting outscored when Tentaclés is on the ice, and yet...they are not. Is the coach a wizard? Is the goalie a Geico walrus?

The numbers look unsustainable. With underlying metrics showing Yukon getting the lesser of the chances with Tentaclés on ice and his shooting percentage over double the league average, we don't see a way he can continue at his current pace. Even if prolific offense continues for Tentaclés, his +/- rating of 11 should not be an indication of where he will be come end of season.

This humble author? Personally I'm rooting for the kid. I'd like to see him get more powerplay time to help cancel out the inevitable shooting percentage regression. I want to see a 50 goal rookie, and someone who can take over when Svatos departs the team next season.

But I wouldn't bet on it.

TheOPSquid · 10-04-2023, 03:46 PM

This is awesome! 50 goals probably isn't in the cards but the underdog story is just starting Tongue

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