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***skyrrhawk*** · 10-16-2023, 02:57 PM

Let’s get it out of the way: Quebec City’s roster for S73 is a full 61% rookies. At the halfway point of the season, it seems to be working out better than expected: they currently sit sixth in the league standings, fourth in conference, and second in the Net Man Division Sponsored By Denny’s.

After completing 33 games of the season, QCC stands at a 17-16-0 record, having clawed their way back from having a losing record for the majority of the first half. They’re better at home than they are away (with a .600 win percentage at home, but only a .444 away), have won their only shootout of the season, and have a +13 goal differential. It’s going well.

At this point in the season, with the personnel shakeups that come with waiver claims and inactives being dropped, the Citadelles have two first-year players skating on their 5-on-5 first line: left wing Celeste Desjardins and right defenseman Abdi Smokes. The second line is made up entirely of rookies, anchored by the Solberg twins at center and left wing, with Shawn Pawn on the right wing and the widely-discussed “Latvian duo” of Roze and Tymer making up the defensive pairing.

But let’s talk numbers and projections. At the halfway point of the season, the Citadelles rookies are on pace for the following numbers of goals and total points:

Juan Tymer: 0 goals, 18 points. (Let’s assume he’ll net one or two in the second half, though.)
Johnny Patey V2: 8 goals, 34 points.
Leo Roze: 2 goals, 24 points.
Michael Rappaz-Creek: 6 goals, 20 points.
Abdi Smokes: 3 goals, 21 points.
Froya Solberg: 26 goals, 52 points.
Sonja Solberg: 24 goals, 58 points.
Shawn Pawn: 20 goals, 44 points.
Tom Sperado: 14 goals, 44 points.
Celeste Desjardins: 48 goals, 96 points.

Every rookie on the team except for Smokes and goaltender Fergus Stewart have played every game of the season up to this point. With mid- and late-season improvements, Desjardins could make a run at a 100-point season, while the Solberg sisters both have an opportunity to get themselves up to a point-per-game season.

Now, these offensive projections are obviously not everything. Desjardins, for example, is projected to reach nearly a hundred points this season, but has a faceoff winrate of only .200 (getting into baseball numbers there, friend, the Mendoza Line is not a healthy place to be) and a takeaway:giveaway ratio of 7:19. Conversely, Tymer has a faceoff winrate of .455 and takeaway:giveaway ratio of 23:6, displaying an obviously higher defensive value despite his low point total.

And let’s look at some defensive projections:

Juan Tymer: 82 hits, 116 shots blocked
Johnny Patey V2: 106 hits, 52 shots blocked
Leo Roze: 84 hits, 144 shots blocked
Michael Rappaz-Creek: 118 hits, 44 shots blocked
Abdi Smokes: 50 hits, 76 shots blocked
Froya Solberg: 84 hits, 40 shots blocked
Sonja Solberg: 140 hits, 34 shots blocked
Shawn Pawn: 138 hits, 8 shots blocked
Tom Sperado: 126 hits, 14 shots blocked
Celeste Desjardins: 164 hits, 6 shots blocked

And let's not leave out the aforementioned rookie goaltender. Stewart is completely IA and sits at 155 TPE, but across nine games and 389 minutes of ice time has put up numbers that create respectable enough projections.

Fergus Stewart: 8 wins and (either) 38 or 52 goals against depending on whether you use a straight math projection or a goals-against-average projection. I lean toward the second number, as Stewart is not improving while the rest of the league does. Also worth noting: this projection depends on Stewart playing an equal amount in the second half of the season as he did in the first, but with Net Man around and the rookie defensemen improving, it seems unlikely.

Despite these absolutely and inarguably impressive numbers overall, this nest of rookies still has a massive amount of room for improvement in this season alone, and they’re fueled by the desire to make a Cup run for their beloved captain, Net Man, before he leaves the J and enters the Show. We can only wait and see what happens in the second half.

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*CptSquall* · 10-22-2023, 10:24 AM

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