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[2x Draft Media] S75 LemonAI Mocks!
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lemonoppyRegistered Senior Member
01-28-2024, 04:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2024, 04:41 PM by lemonoppy. Edited 3 times in total.)
Hey everyone! I’m lemonoppy and I know nothing about the SHL. Some of you may know me from the ISFL, and glad to see you guys here!
There’s like 4 hours before the SMJHL draft happens, and I know nothing except that apparently the first three picks will be Faelax (Anna Skovgaard), cake307 (Alexa Johansen), and then probably NUCK (Will Nuck). Hopefully that’s right because the TPE for this draft is hard to get, you have to guess the correct name AND spot? Crazy. So what is someone who has literally no idea about any of this going to do about this all? And how will they do a mock draft with a few hours before the draft? Well, with some data and some RNG! I’ve repurposed some code I used to make a randomized, weighted mock draft for the ISFL back in the summer to make one here. First off, I copy and pasted every single prediction in the draft thread, not that much work, it’s maybe like 27 predictions? That's just copy and pasting while Twitch plays on the other monitor. With all this data, we've got two different mocks for you today, first is the Consensus Mock. I wrote a little bit of code to go line by line and give players points for where they’re mocked, so Anna Skovgaard gets 28 points for being mocked first, and then 27 to second, all the way down to 1 point for the 28th predicted player. This is a consensus where you just grab the hive mind, organize them into what they think and spit out a mock. It’s not super sophisticated, is super easy to code, and what I’ve got first up! First off, we can see that clearly we’ve got some tiers, with a huge lead f 1OA. 1.01 - Anna Skovgaard (692 points), the Centre out of Oslo Norway who is the runaway first overall pick. 1.02/1.03 - Next we have Alexa Johansen, the Left Winger out of California with 609 points and Will Nuck the Right Defenseman from Munich at 608, very contested 2 and 3 spots here. 1.04/1.05 - Archibald Walker with 591 points comes in for the 4th spot, but Jennifer Huh at 587 makes it not a sure thing. 1.06 - Sixth overall seems to belong to Tank Sharksly at 576 points, although I worry about a team deciding that someone who wants to arm sharks (whether with real arms or weapons) is a stable presence on the team. 1.07 - The last pick that is kind of “strongly top tiered” is The Cod Father at 551. Big Newff does not make a player from Newfoundland but instead a Right Defenseman from Lisbon, hope he brought some green wine! 1.08 - We’ve got a huge fifty point gap to 8 with Deth Klaw (503 points), which I think is a video game reference? Fallout? I don’t know, I don’t play Fallout. Is it a Morrowind reference? 1.09 9th goes to Robo Sven @ 436 who is also in a tier of his own with this pick. We really haven’t had many hard choices so far, although a few of the picks have had a couple of options. 1.10 / 1.11 / 1.12 / 1.13 - Our next four are Ylib Kove (390) (the Evok naming menace continues), Turtle Bob (378), Jim Weiners (365), and Nathangus McExplosion (362). While Kove has a sizable lead, this is a very changeable area in the 10-13 range and should wreck a lot of drafts! 1.14 - For the final pick in the first round, we’ve got potentially 1, 3, or 4 players based on your interpretation of the numbers. We’ve got James Howlett (328), Anastasia Söderström (314), Stavros Kondos (313), and dark horse Andy Lammers with 292 points. I think personally, this is a four horse race and Lammers falls out of the first. I would generally call the next picks pretty stratified: 2.04 - Scar Bealy 270 points 2.05 / 2.06 - MattyJ 261 points or Brayden Point 251 points 2.07 - Mativy Cajabi 189 points 2.08 to 2.13 - This one is really dealer’s choice between Thorn Brown (151), joe biggs (144), Nathan Abel (141), Jamie Fraser (136), Cade de Vries (120), Max Belcher (119) For our consensus final pick, it’s really difficult, we’ve got 7 players from 92 to 66 points, and a single draft’s mocked spot would sway that very much. Max Belcher => 119 points Thomas Hudson => 92 points Jim Weiners => 90 points NoNo Jo => 78 points 3WW Wingmate-Roc => 78 points BD Bronk => 72 points Carter Stankoven => 68 points Matviy Cajab => 66 points HOWEVER, that’s not enough, why one mock when you can have two? Why don’t we take the consensus mock and then do a randomized mock on top of that? Basically, we take the sum of the list and then pick a random number between 1 and the sum. For each player, you get a specific range of the possible numbers, Anna Skovgaard gets 1 to 664, Alexa Johansen 665 to 1274, and so forth. Based on where the number lands, that is who gets taken. Then we just remove that player from the list, generate another number, and then we’ve got our next pick. For our roulette draft, I would not recommend posting this as your mock, but if you want to trust in the RNG, here you go! Pick 1: Ylib Kove! Pick 2: Max Belcher! Pick 3: Archibald Walker! Pick 4: Anna Skovgaard! Pick 5: Deth Klaw! Pick 6: Stavros Kondos! Pick 7: Tank Sharksy! Pick 8: MattyJ! Pick 9: Jason Warwaha! Pick 10: Nathangus McExplosion! Pick 11: Jennifer Huh! Pick 12: Will Nuck! Pick 13: Jamie Fraser! Pick 14: The Cod Father! Pick 15: 3WW Wingmate-Roc! Pick 16: Matviy Cajabi! Pick 17: Squilliam Fancyson! Pick 18: Brayden Point! Pick 19: Anastasia Söderström! Pick 20: James Howlett! Pick 21: Mark The Tater Tot! Pick 22: Robo Sven! Pick 23: Turtle Bob! Pick 24: Cade de Vries! Pick 25: Jim Weiners! Pick 26: Robo sven! Pick 27: Alexa Johansen! Pick 28: BD Bronk! Pick 15 is just out of the first for me, sadge, but hopefully I can get up into that first round!
lukeSHL GM Admiral of the Data Seas
lemonoppyRegistered Senior Member
_Blitz_Donators Donated
lemonoppyRegistered Senior Member 01-28-2024, 05:03 PM_Blitz_ Wrote: Usually if you just paste into SHL threads, it formats it as rich text. The easiest work around is to paste without formatting (Ctrl+Shift+V for Windows, not sure for Mac). Welcome to the site, good luck in the draft tonight! Thanks, yeah, gotta do the paste values only I guess! |
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