Login

***JohnFranklinKennedy*** · 02-12-2024, 12:39 PM

(This article was initially posted as a deep dive. Total word count for this article is 2321 words, please only grade 1821, as 500 have been used for the deep dive. Please and thank you <3)

We're now through the first week of sims, and each team has player around 14-18 games. At this point, we have enough of a sample size to have at least some idea of what each team is. There's plenty of room for things to change, but now seems like a good time to take a deeper look at the standing and try to see how the rest of the year will play out.

League Standings:
Quebec City Citadelles: 18 GP, 14-4-0, 28 Points
Great Falls Grizzles: 18 GP, 11-7-0, 22 Points
Colorado Raptors: 14 GP, 10-4-0, 20 Points
Detroit Falcons: 17 GP, 9-6-2, 20 Points
Carolina Kraken: 15 GP. 9-5-1, 19 Points
Maine Timber: 14 GP, 9-4-1, 19 Points
Regina Elk 17 GP, 8-7-2, 18 Points
Anchorage Armada: 15 GP, 8-6-1, 17 Points
Yukon Malamutes: 17 GP, 8-9-0, 16 Points
Newfoundland Berserkers: 18 GP, 7-11-0, 14 Points
St Louis Scarecrows: 16 GP, 6-9-1, 13 Points
Kelowna Knights: 18 GP, 6-11-1, 13 Points
Vancouver Whalers: 17 GP, 6-10-1, 13 Points
Nevada Battleborn: 18 GP, 5-13-0, 10 Points

With so much variation between games played, going by points percentage is generally a better way to look at things, so here's the standings in that format, with a measure of how far each times rises/falls as compared to standings by raw point totals;

(0)Quebec City Citadelles: .778%
(+1)Colorado Raptors: .714%
(+3)Maine Timber: .679%
(+1)Carolina Kraken: .663%
(-3)Great Falls Grizzlies: .611%
(-2)Detroit Falcons: .588%
(+1)Anchorage Armada: .567%
(-1)Regina Elk: .529%
(0)Yukon Malamutes: .471%
(+1)St Louis Scarecrows: .406%
(-1)Newfoundland Berserkers: .389%
(+1)Vancouver Whalers: .382%
(-1)Kelowna Knights: .361%
(0)Nevada Battleborn: .278%

The biggest jump in this belongs to the Maine Timber. They've only played 14 games so far, so they're behind every team except for Colorado in total games played so far, with both teams rising to take the 2nd and 3rd spots in the standings. The biggest faller was Great Falls, but an 11-7-0 record still isn't bad and they're comfortable with being 5th in the league rankings. No movement on the top or bottom of the rankings, with Quebec holding down the top spot with an impressive 14-4-0 record. On the other side of the standings, Nevada is still on the bottom, a full .081% below the next placed team (Kelowna.)

Now with some light shined on where each team stands at this point, how do these rankings compare to where we expected teams to be?

For the purposes of this section, I will be going off of @Jexter's "Preseason SMJHL Power Rankings" article, and the TPE charts featured in @Ultimatedestroye's "S75 SMJHL Predictions" article, as I really don't personally know what the expectations were going into the season.

Anchorage Armada
Applied TPE Rank: 6th
Projected Placement: 6th
Standings by Points: 8th
Standings by Points %: 7th

Anchorage was expected to be a slightly above average team this season. It hasn't come together fully for them, but they aren't that far behind expectations and absolutely have the room to meet or even exceed them. They've had some tough losses and some strong wins, if they can be a bit more consistent through the rest of the season they could certainly rise in the standings.

Carolina Kraken:
Applied TPE Rank: 7th
Projected Placement: 8th
Standings by Points: 5th
Standings by Points %: 4th

Carolina has been a pretty pleasant surprise this season. With the 4th best points percentage in the league, they're sitting pretty and have to be happy with where they're at. If you look under the hood a bit, their record becomes a bit misleading. 12 of the 15 games they've played so far have been against the bottom 5 teams in the league, going 7-5-0, and they haven't played any of the top 3 teams (by points percentage) yet. You would like to see them perform a bit better against some of the lesser teams, but a winning-but-not-great record against below average team checks out for an average TPE team. You can only play who the schedule gives you, and to their credit they won their one game against GFG, and are 1-0-1 against Regina, but it will be interesting to see if they can stay up in the standings when the schedule gets tougher.

Colorado Raptors:
Applied TPE Rank: 3rd
Projected Placement: 1st
Standings by Points: 3rd
Standings by Points %: 2nd

Colorado should be satisfied with their season so far. They're 2nd in points percentage, and are 2-1 against QCC so far, outscoring them a combined 14-9. With that in mind, there's a real argument that they've been the best team in the league this season, and have won 10 of their last 11 games. The sky is the limit for Colorado this year, and they'll be a strong contender to return to the cup finals this year if they keep it up.

Detroit Falcons:
Applied TPE Rank: 5th
Projected Placement: 2nd
Standings by Points: 4th
Standings by Points %: 6th

Detroit started slow this season, and while they've been trending in the right direction recently, there's still work to be done to get back to where they know they can be. 6th in the league by percentage still isn't bad, but they know they can be better. It won't be easy, but there's a real chance they can ride the momentum from their past couple wins and use it to challenge Colorado and Great Falls for the top of the 510 Division.

Great Falls Grizzlies:
Applied TPE Rank: 9th
Projected Placement: 10th
Standings by Points: 2nd
Standings by Points %: 5th

One of the biggest success stories so far this season, Great Falls started off the year by winning 4 of their first 5 games. They struggled a bit to put consistent wins together afterwards but are currently on a 3 game winning streak. Projected to be towards the bottom of the league thanks to a 9th ranked applied TPE total, they have smashed those expectations and are 2nd in the league in points. Points percentage brings them down to 5th, but considering where everyone expected them to be, that's still very good.

Kelowna Knights:
Applied TPE Rank: 12th
Projected Placement: 12th
Standings by Points: 12th
Standings by Points %: 13th

A rough season expected, a rough season delivered so far for Kelowna. They haven't been able to outperform their TPE constraints up to this point, and they're right where they were projected to be at the start of the year. There's some reason for optimism, they've only played 5 of their 18 games at home so far, going 3-1-1 in those games. If they can keep cooking at home then they should be able to take advantage of lots of home games through the rest of the season.

Maine Timber:
Applied TPE Rank: 8th
Projected Placement: 7th
Standings by Points: 6th
Standings by Points %: 3rd

Maine has been another great story so far. Ranked in the bottom half of the league by TPE, they won their first 4 games of the season and never really looked back. They're tied for lowest games played so far with 14, but their offense especially has been very strong and it has carried them to a shining 9-4-1 record. It'll be hard to overtake Quebec for top of their division, but it's hard to find many complaints with Maine's season so far considering how they were expected to perform

Nevada Battleborn:
Applied TPE Rank: 13th
Projected Placement: 13th
Standings by Points: 14th
Standings by Points %: 14th

A bad season turning for the worst, the only real positive out of Nevada's year so far is their bright future. They are full of young players who will be good later down the line, but for now the team is struggling to find its footing. Having lost games against Kelowna, St Louis, and Vancouver, they haven't been able to fully keep up with other teams close to them in TPE, and it has led to them being last in the standings. A league-worst -58 goal differential, 18 worst than the next placed team, (St Louis, -40) is attributed mainly to having allowed 105 goals against in 18 games. They're averaging 5.83 goals against per game, which is tough to win with. As their rookies keep earning and their TPE catches up through the season they should be much stronger through the 2nd half of the year, but for now it's a rough time in the desert.

Newfoundland Berserkers:
Applied TPE Rank: 10th
Projected Placement: 11th
Standings by Points: 10th
Standings by Points %: 11th

Performing pretty close to their projections, it's hard to have too much to quarrel with over their season so far. They weren't expecting to be great, and they haven't been, but in a rebuilding year you can take that. They just broke out of a 6 game losing streak which tanked their placement a bit, so if they can steady the ship there they have room to move up the standings. For now though, they're about where they were expected to be, and there's really nothing wrong with that

Quebec City Citadelles:
Applied TPE Rank: 2nd
Projected Placement: 3rd
Standings by Points: 1st
Standings by Points %: 1st

Even the most optimistic projections didn't have Quebec City starting off like this. They won 9 of their first 10 games, and never fully looked back. There's been a couple bumps in the road, they're 2-2-0 in their last 4 and lost 2 out of 3 against second place Colorado. The Colorado season series so far is the only real concern, you would like to see them perform better against the other top teams to really cement themselves as the best in the league, but it's hard to fault them for losing to a good team. They have the most potent offense in the league, averaging 5.11 goals per game, and their defense has been strong to match. They have a real shot at a cup final appearance this year if they can keep up the momentum.

Regina Elk:
Applied TPE Rank: 4th
Projected Placement: 5th
Standings by Points: 7th
Standings by Points %: 8th

A disappointing start to be sure for a projected top-5 team. They haven't been able to string together consecutive wins a single time all season, they've been alternating wins and losses since the beginning. They finally broke that streak over their most recent two games, unfortunately not in the way they wanted, as they lost 5-2 to both Detroit and Quebec City in consecutive games. The biggest culprit is a surprisingly weak offense, averaging the 4th lowest goals per game with an even 3 a game. Their defense has actually been absolutely stellar, averaging a league-best 2.70 goals against per game. They're keeping the puck out of their net well enough, they just haven't been able to translate that into offense to win games. You have to imagine that a 4th highest TPE team will find a way to score a few more goals, so as long as they don't sacrifice their defense to do it they should absolutely be able to find some wins going forward.

St Louis Scarecrows:
Applied TPE Rank: 14th
Projected Placement: 14th
Standings by Points: 11th
Standings by Points %: 10th

It hasn't been all roses for St Louis, but they've been better than expected this year. They came into the most recent draft with absolutely nothing, but they made a ton of trades to get themselves a ton of rookies. They still have the lowest TPE in the league, but they've been outperforming that a bit. They've still lost by 10 or more goals twice, which isn't great, but it's hard to complain about their season so far. They were expected to be the basement team all year, but they've found a way to be much better than those projections placed them

Vancouver Whalers:
Applied TPE Rank: 11th
Projected Placement: 9th
Standings by Points: 13th
Standings by Points %: 12th

A minorly disappointing start here for Vancouver. They weren't expected to be great, and they haven't been, but it's been worse than they anticipated. They've lost 9 of their last 8, with that lone win coming in the shootout against Kelowna. To be fair to them, that 9 game stretch included 3 games against Colorado, and a game against each of Great Falls and Quebec City, and they never got completely dominated in those games. It doesn't get easier for them soon, with Colorado, Anchorage, and Quebec all waiting in the next 3 games, but eventually the schedule will ease up and they could use that to climb a bit in the standings.

Yukon Malamutes:
Applied TPE Rank: 1st
Projected Placement: 4th
Standings by Points: 9th
Standings by Points %: 9th

Without a doubt the biggest disappointment this year has been Yukon. The number one ranked team by TPE have lost more than they've won. There were some concerns going into the year over whether they could parlay their TPE into a top 3 finish in the standings, but nothing like the collapse we've seen so far. They're on a game losing streak right now, with the most recent two of those coming against the last-place Nevada Battleborn, and second to last place Kelowna Knights. Those are teams they just have to find a way to beat, and losing those to keep a losing streak going has to be rough for the locker room vibe. Their schedule hasn't been terribly rough either, they haven't played QCC yet and only played 1 against Colorado. A +6 goal differential and 8-9-0 record has them in firmly "average" territory, and they should absolutely be better than that with the talent they have. There's plenty of time to right the ship, but this team has a ways to go to get to where they wanted to be coming into the year.

The only certain thing I can say about how the standings will shake out from here is that my season predictions are probably gonna be mostly wrong.

***Jexter*** · 02-12-2024, 02:06 PM

We’re smurfing. Trust

Navigation

Extra Menu

About us