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[VSN] Studying Pipelines (S74-S78)
#1
(This post was last modified: 08-09-2024, 04:50 PM by ValorX77. Edited 1 time in total.)

Hello and good time-appropriate greeting, a couple of weeks back, a user by the name of furiouschicken did the daunting task of investigating the drafts of each team during the seasons of S62-S76. Inspired by their work, I've decided to take a look at which SMJHL teams produce the most draft-ready talent.

* Starting from the S74 SHL draft, this is because of recency
* The Regina Elk and Thunder Bay Walleye will be seen as 1 team.
* If a player is not in the portal, the player is not included
* I use the drafted by that is seen in the portal, not looking at if the player switched J-team before the SHL draft (or switched SHL team before being called up for that matter). If the player was not drafted (for example a player going through the waiver) the first team found in the SMJHL index is used, if this is also not linked, the Portal history will be used to go back to the originally assigned value for the SMJHL team.
*If an SHL team does not draft a player, the player is not included.

Unlike the articles by furiouschicken focusing on whom the SHL teams got, we will be focusing on the pipelines that are produced in selecting certain players from certain teams. To add some clarity, these will be based on the drafts from S74 to S78, to ensure that I get the most up-to-date information available through our portal system. There will also be no players with missing J league teams in this article as well to ensure we have an efficient and accurate model. Each team will be accompanied by a chart that shows how many players went to a team during our sample tests. Each team will have a short summary of the charts, and explain any strange or weird pipelines.
I am also not alone in writing this, I have fellow GFG teammate Waters helping out with this project.


Anchorage:

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The Armada seems to have 3 well-established pipelines in Texas, Seattle, and, Buffalo. The connection to Texas grew exponentially in the S78 draft with a second and a third-round selection adding to the pipeline. Buffalo's main gains come from the S74 entry draft, also from a second and a third-round pick. Seattle's mainline was established in the S76 entry draft, once again with a second and a third-round selection, which seems to be an early trend with Armada's pipeline system. There are also a few smaller pipelines that can grow if those teams select an Armada player. These include the Hamilton Steelhawks, Minnesota Monarchs, and the New England Wolfpack. All of these teams have selected 2 players during the sample size, with Hamilton using a third-round selection to expand their pipeline. If there is anyone responsible for these pipelines or started it, let me know in the comments. However, later picks does not necessarily mean they have a healthy pipeline..


Carolina:

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The Kraken has three main pipelines, to Calgary, Hamilton, and, Toronto. Back-to-back first-round selections by the Dragons in S75 and S76 boost the pipeline to Calgary. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a bit more unrealistic and inflated by the model, as they are mainly fueled by Third round or later picks. The Toronto North Stars, however, have a bit more of a realistic chance at a pipeline here as they've on average, taken a Kraken player in the second round, with the most recent example coming from the S78 draft not too long ago. When I said there were three there is a fourth pipeline, which is the Tampa Bay Barracuda. However, much like Hamilton, it's only a first-round pick in S74 that affected the model here. Carolina only has two real pipelines.


Colorado:

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Two main pipelines define the development of the Colorado Raptors; The Atlanta Inferno, and the Seattle Argonauts. Atlanta hasn't selected a Colorado player since S76, but I believe that the pipeline was influenced by one user, Micool, maybe that's why they have been good at producing first-round talent in this short sample size. But the surprising thing is that even though you might have a well-established pipeline, another one might spawn without notice, which is Seattle. A third overall pick in S75, followed by two early second-rounders and a GM in between is a hell of a pipeline. Not to mention, they also had two first-rounders in S78 as well, going to Minnesota and Tampa Bay respectively. Even that Minnesota pick could potentially be the start of a new pipeline.

Detroit:

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Detroit is an interesting case for pipelines, as it appears on the surface that there are three of them. However, Toronto is not a real one as it is riding on a tenth-overall pick from S75. Then we have Minnesota, despite not producing a first-rounder, they have two second-round picks that will help boost them. We now have the main course, Seattle, with two first-round picks in S74 and S77, and a second in the latter year. There is a user that is synonymous with Detroit and Seattle and the user in question is a former GM for Seattle in NotoriousTig. However, this is another pipeline brewing with another fellow bird team in the Hamilton Steelhawks, with a first and second-round pick in the S78 draft. Can this trend continue for the S79 draft?


Great Falls:

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Now we go to the team that drafted us in the SMJHL, the Great Falls Grizzlies. The main pipeline during this time is the Minnesota Monarchs, with 6 prospects selected by the Monarchs organization during this sample period. However, this pipeline is only half of what it seems, with a first-round pick in S74 and two second-rounders in S77 and S78. This pipeline earned the nickname "SpartanGibbles line" because he was a former Minnesota GM who helped uproot this line. There are possible pipelines forming with Montreal, Seattle, and Calgary. But, with New England taking their GM in Luke from the Grizzlies, is there a potential New England pipeline brewing when the team eventually enters a rebuild?


Kelowna:

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Kelowna is a team that has quite a few recently developed pipelines. Still, the main one is Calgary having three members taken from Kelowna producing a pick in each round during this time. Recently, the Winnipeg Aurora had their GM, Ace, selected by the Knights in the J draft sixth overall, and this has also produced a second-round pick in the same S77 draft. Atlanta, Buffalo, Texas, and New Orleans are some of the other main pipelines that Kelowna has produced in recent years, with all but Texas selecting a Kelowna Knight with a first-round selection. Not to mention, Philadelphia and Edmonton also have taken a Knight with a first-round pick during this sample size.

Maine:

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Another team with similarly streamlined pipelines is the Maine Timber, Although their main line seems to head toward the Hamilton Steelhawks, they have failed to produce a first-round pick out of the Timber organization. If you want to see a team creating a pipeline using only first-round picks, take a look at the Tampa Bay-Maine pipeline, back-to-back first-round picks in S77 and S78. You also have another small pipeline with the Seattle Argonauts, where you had 3 players selected including a first-round pick in S76 off a waiver pickup. Another potential pipeline in the works is with the Philadelphia Forge, with two second-round selections, and a first-round selection in S79 can create a major pipeline for years to come.


Nevada:

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Nevada has one main pipeline that has been the main part of the organization for many seasons, and that's the Chicago pipeline. Two first-round picks in S74 and S75, and a second-rounder in the latter draft, show that there is indeed a major pipeline. Montreal also has a pipeline in the works with the Battleborn mainly stemming from the S76 draft, with a first and second-round selection. The story is quite similar in Edmonton with their S77 draft class, which is an exact clone of the S76 Chicago model. There is also one more possible pipeline brewing in Winnipeg, with a first-rounder in S77, and a possible steal in the third round, which presents the way Battleborn player might get taken going forward.


Newfoundland:

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Newfoundland has a few very interesting pipelines. In terms of raw numbers, the main one is the Stampede, with a first rounder and 3 second rounders heading there since S75. PLayers tend to move all around the league, however, with the Blizzard having 2 first rounders from the Berserkers, the Forge having a 2 as well (somehow both picked at exactly 18th, after also both going in the 30s in juniors. What? Huh?) The Aurora have only one pick from here, but it’s also the only top 10 player to come out of Newfoundland since S74, so it’s a fairly significant one pick. There’s also the Monarchs and the Patriotes, having both dipped in the Newfoundland waters in the late drafts many times over the last few seasons.

Ottawa:

[Image: Ottawa.png]

The Highlanders are of course, a very new team, so there’s much less data to go off here. There are a couple patterns starting to emerge, however; 5 out of 8 of these picks have been first rounders, two of them in the top 10. They seem to create very successful SHL draft picks, and teams should be taking notice by establishing a pipeline here. The only teams with multiple Ottawa players are the Stampede (have they had 6000 picks?), going back to back ottawa players in the first round, and the Argonauts, who picked up a defenseman in the first in S77, and a goalie in the third. Looking forward to how this will develop.


Quebec City:

[Image: Quebec-City.png]

QC has several interesting pipelines, but two major ones: the Dragons, and the Stampede (what is going on with the Stampede??). The Dragons established their pipeline between S74-S76, managing to nab all four of their QC draftees in the first round, including a 1st overall in S74 and a 3rd overall in S76. The Stampede have opted for the later rounds, and also later drafts, really making their mark on this team by picking up two Citadelles in the most recent draft. There have a been a ton of Quebec City draft picks, and many teams have gone to the well multiple times. The Blizzard also picked up two Citadelles in this last draft, the Patriotes focused their efforts on S75, getting another 1st overall pick from the QCC crew, and a goalie later in the first round. The Forge have made a small mark, and the Barracuda have technically drafted two of them, but one of them was in the 6th round, so most likely a GM player.


Regina/Thunder Bay:

[Image: Regina.png]

The Elk, now Walleyes, havent really established any major pipelines. Most notably, there are 3 Monarchs draftees on the team, two defensemen picked in the first and a goalie picked in the second. Other teams with multiple Walleyes are the Stampede with multiple firsts (im getting more and more confused by this), the Patriotes with a couple defensemen, the Wolfpack, both of which were waiver pickup RDs, the Argonauts, who picked two goalies from here in S75, and the Barracuda, looking to get some value in the later rounds. There’s no real future pipelines to watch as far as I can tell either, but the Monarchs will likely see what they can get from here.


San Diego:

[Image: San-Diego.png]

Another very very new team, the Tidal havent had the success that the Highlanders have had at the top of the draft, with only one first round pick so far in their short existence. Incredibly, not a single one of these players ended up in the same place. I would say the Syndicate are the only team I could see building something out of here, having invested 3rd overall in S77 in a member of the Tidal. Looking forward to seeing what happens in the coming seasons as Tidal alumni become more established in the SHL.

St. Louis:

[Image: St-Louis.png]

St. Louis has always had a very successful partnership with the Specters, as many original Specters members bonded as STL alumni. This is not the only pathway to the SHL for Scarecrows though, and seemingly, its the Patriotes who have picked out of this crop the most. However, I think the legitimacy of that pipeline may not be as valid as the numbers might say, as 4 of those players were picked in S76, 3 of them round 7 or later, and the other one was S75. Most of their core are not Scarecrows alum. This is the same situation as the Barracuda, as they do have 3 picks from here, but none of them were in the first round. Only the Blizzard have consistently gone Scarecrows early, with two 2nd overall picks in S76 and S78, so that pipeline is likely developing. As clear as pipelines may seem from the chart, St. Louis actually doesnt really have many established ones as of yet.


Vancouver:

[Image: Vancouver.png]

The Steelhawks have established a solid Vancouver pipeline through aleks’ transition from Whalers GM to Hamilton Co. It does need to be said that they havent gone Whaler since S76, but its likely to continue being a genuine pipeline, I would assume. Only 5 Whalers have ended up in the first round in the last 5 seasons, and they’ve all gone to different teams, with all of them being in the last 3 seasons. The top 5 from this most recent draft had two Whalers, going 3rd to the Blizzard and 5th to Winnipeg. Of the teams with 2 Whalers in their prospect pool, the Wolfpack seem to be making a legitimate investment as of late, having gotten both their Whalers in the S77 draft. Same can be said for the Aurora, with that aforementioned 5th overall pick, and a second rounder in S76.


Yukon:

[Image: Yukon.png]

In terms of raw numbers, the Steelhawks and the Argonauts are the two teams that seem to pick the most Malamutes. The Argonauts mostly built this pool in the S74-S75 drafts, adding a second rounder in this most recent draft. The Steelhawks did all of their work in the S76-S77 drafts, picking up a 1st rounder, a 2nd, a 3rd and a 5th. The Malamutes havent produced a ton of picks in the last couple drafts, especially S78, but looking at the numbers from drafts before that, other interesting pipelines are the Rage, with notably a 4th overall pick in S76, and the North Stars, who had drafted two Malamutes in the S75 draft, one of them 6th overall.



Conclusion:
So what have we learned from this experiment?

In this small sample experiment, we have learned a couple of things. The first such occurrence is that the pipeline is stronger when the teams focus on quality over quantity. Take a look at the St. Louis to Montreal pipeline, they may have produced the most picks from the team, but take a closer look and you will notice they are all from the same draft and 3 of those picks ended up being busts. The second occurrence is that teams in the SHL who tanked or had a lot of picks had greater chances to forge a pipeline. Calgary's connection to Quebec City comes to mind, as Calgary for much of the sample size was at best mediocre and had a lot of picks, which is quite similar to Edmonton who had picks 1-4 in the S78 Draft which allowed them to expand their outreach to other J teams.

This is only the beginning of a potential media series, as the next time you will likely see us try to create a mock draft based on this model, but it will more than likely end up being wrong because GMs love messing with everyone's TPE. After that, we will expand on this as we continue furiouschicken's research as we add S77 and S78, and possibly S79 to his previous work and see how the pipelines change!

(Please split the payment between myself and waters!)

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#2

Very fun to work on! A lot of really interesting pipelines developing in the SHL

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#3

Nevada :handshake: Chicago

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#4

Nice work here!

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#5

Chicago
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#6

I like colorful graphs. 10/10

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#7

This is a cool read



Character Page RD- Quarterback
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Retired players:
-Toki Wartooth
-Nathan Explosion btw
-Angus McFife XVIII

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#8

Very cool! Texas didn't had a lot of draft picks in the past so normal to not see us ahha!

Also it's maybe me, but I don't see the graphics until San Diego?

  
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#9

this is neat. would be cool to see this once a year or so

 
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#10

Quote:and the Stampede (what is going on with the Stampede??).

We have our favorites





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#11

08-10-2024, 02:02 PMAnthique Wrote: Very cool! Texas didn't had a lot of draft picks in the past so normal to not see us ahha!

Also it's maybe me, but I don't see the graphics until San Diego?

Sometimes they take a bit to load. (I did not use discord btw)

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