S79 Team Roster Analysis and Predictions

Hello and welcome once again to these pieces analyzing the team TPE to predict where they will finish in the standings.
With most teams having their rosters finalized or close to it, we can start to see how they all stack up against each other!

My methodology is based on the premise that the single biggest indicator to how a team will do is the team TPE, and how it is distributed. That is to say that generally Forwards > Defense > Goalie. Obviously things like player builds and roles, and coaching strategies and line chemistry are factors that can change things, but I would argue to a lesser extent than simply team TPE. Also, I list the roster depth chart solely on TPE: not all teams, or any team necessarily, will run their lines exactly like this but it still gives a clear view on where the strengths or weaknesses of a team may lie.

Without further ado, let's have a look at:

CENTRAL DIVISION

  TEXAS RENEGADES 

1795 1733 1683
1503 1488 1305
1132 1017  950

1830 1649
1574 1259
1107  798

1600  668

Texas did get hit a bit by regression and their top line is not quite the super elite group of last season but overall they still have a deep squad. When compared to the other teams in the division their second and third lines are clearly superior so they don't need to rely only on the top line to help them win games. Even with that slight drop due to regression, they have maintained their edge over the other teams in this division and should happily cruise to home ice in the playoffs.
Prediction: 48-50 Wins

NEW ORLEANS SPECTERS 

1819 1772 1487
1394 1247  972
962  925  830

1758 1742
1731 1540
1466 1454

1654  383

If defense was the only thing that mattered I'd say the Specters were one of the best teams in the league. It is an enviable collection of blueliners and goalie that they are working with. They have some elite players at forward on the top line but after that you start seeing some areas of weakness. Overall they got hit by regression pretty hard it seems and they have seen TPE levels drop across the board. They are still stronger than the teams below them in this division and conference so I think they will be a good team but maybe not a contender.
Prediction: 38-40 Wins


MINNESOTA MONARCHS 

1785 1563 1541
1410 1336 1272
874  845  567

1405 1281
1151 1095
710  603

1010  949

It's hard to say whether the Monarchs have gotten any better than last season. Their top line is about the same, the second line is maybe a bit stronger, but the third line is noticeably weaker. They have some talent on those top 2 lines for sure so they can be competitive in this somewhat weakened division but the weakness in the depth chart is a bit glaring to think they will be able to really take a step forward.
Prediction: 26-28 Wins

CHICAGO SYNDICATE 

1715 1561 1308
1028 1017  937
857  798  725

1537 1330
1295  970
913  729

836  640

A team in the mid stages of a rebuild, the bulk of their players are in the S73 - S76 Draft range. They are quite strong at the top end of the roster but they start feeling the lack of depth on the 2nd and 3rd lines. They have definitely made some strides and seeing an improved roster over last season so they should be in a wildcard position this season after missing the playoffs in S78. They will need their top line to have a breakout season to climb much higher than 4th in this division but they are trending in the right direction.
Prediction: 22-24 Wins

WINNIPEG AURORA 

1766 1372  964
959  951  948
896  894  656

1337 1156
915  731
704  632

1930  562

The Aurora are in a tough spot this season, overall the roster is diminished compared to last year. There are a few good players on the team, and they do have one of the top goalies in the league, but there's just not enough pieces surrounding those great players to make up the difference. They have embraced a rebuild and their prospect pool is definitely exciting with several players going to make the jump to the SHL in the next few seasons so there is a bright side. The best they can hope for is maybe a wild card spot if they outperform, given the relative weakness of the Western Conference compared to the East, but most likely they will be on the outside of the playoff bubble.
Prediction: 18-20 Wins

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There you have it! Good luck and have fun!