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charlieconway · 03-09-2025, 01:42 PM

One thing I've noticed in FHM is the discrepancy in performance at home vs on the road. It seems like the home team wins much more often than the away team, which I think makes sense (it's that way in real life). So I set out to see what that difference was.

In the above image...

...HP% is the team's points percentage in home games only
...AP% is the team's points percentage in away games only
...Diff is the flat difference between HP% and AP%
...P%PH is the percentage of the team's points that have come from home games. Note that Buffalo is the only team that has picked up more points away than home, due to having played more away from their own rink
...A/H Diff is the difference between home games and away games played at this point in the season. Positive means that team has more home games than away remaining
...Proj Pts. is what the final point totals for each team would look like IF the point percentage stayed what they are now, with the H/A split remaining for each team taken into account

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As you can see, not one single team has a better P% on the road than at home.
Three teams (MAN, HAM, MIN) have a less than .500 points percentage in their own rink.
Six teams have a greater than or equal to .500 points percentage on the road.
I think Buffalo deserves credit for punching above its weight on the road. Toronto as well, but less so: its record on the road is still sub .500, but it's better than you'd think given their home performance.

I'll be interested to see how the playoffs shake out: will home team dominance continue, or will talent win out no matter where the game is?

***RAmenAmen*** · 03-09-2025, 05:06 PM

This season feels like a huge shift in favor of the home team compared to past seasons. It's great to see this data made visible, but do we have a comparison across the FHM8 era?

*MikeLiut* · 03-09-2025, 08:10 PM

Great job with this, Charlie. It will be interesting to compare FHM8 and FHM10 in a few months.

By-Tor · 03-11-2025, 09:26 AM

So this is telling me that I have a ~25% higher chance to score extra TPE in the Primetimes if I just pick all the home teams every time

Credit to enigmatic, Merica, tweedledunn, and jaypc8237 for sigs

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