S27 By the Numbers
An Examination of the Milestone System
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Pandar
Registered might be a wizard
Recently, a discussion broke out about the Milestone system and how it seemed to be broken. I decided to do some digging to find out how broken it was (or wasn’t) by gathering (a lot) of data. I’ll start by explaining how I collected my data, then show the results, and finally offer some thoughts.
DATA COLLECTION: I started by going through the lines for each team and determined whether each skater was a center, winger, or defender. To do this, I used the player’s first position in the lines (e.g. if a player was a first line left wing and a third line center, I listed them as a winger). Then I collected the relevant stats for every player who appeared in a team’s lines as of the final sim of the season. Admittedly, if a player had been assigned to center for the last sim and had been a winger for the entire season before that, I didn’t know that, but this should still be a “good enough†approach from which we can draw relevant conclusions. I will also state that I only examined the starting goaltenders for each squad, as many teams are either using inactive backups, or SMJHL send-downs for the back-up slot, these players wouldn’t be able to claim milestone TPE anyway. This was also before Bojo released a god damned spreadsheet that I could have just modified, so I did this all by hand <_< RESULTS: CENTER (41 players in final sim) Goals -> 15 or more (21 of 41, 51%) Assists -> 25 or more (14 of 41, 34%) +/- -> 15 or more (3 of 41, 7%) PIM -> 12 or less (14 of 41, 34%) FIGHTS -> 1 or more (21 of 41, 51%) HITS -> 90 or more (15 of 41, 37%) Special PTS* -> 20 or more (1 of 41, 2%) Faceoff -> 50% or more (27 of 41, 66%) Game Winning goals -> 3 or more (14 of 41, 34%) Game Tying goals -> 3 or more (4 of 41, 10%) MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 7 NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 2 of 41 (5%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 9 of 41 (22%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 4 of 41 (10%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 5 of 41 (12%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 11 of 41 (27%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 3 of 41 (7%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 7 of 41 (17%) WINGER (84 players in final sim) Goals -> 20 or more (11 of 84, 13%) Assists -> 20 or more (26 of 84, 31%) +/- -> 15 or more (3 of 84, 4%) PIM -> 12 or less (39 of 84, 46%) FIGHTS -> 1 or more (21 of 84, 25%) HITS -> more than 90 (25 of 84, 30%) Special PTS* -> more than 10 (31 of 84, 37%) Hat Tricks -> more than 1 (0 of 84, 0%) Game Winning goals -> 3 or more (17 of 84, 20%) Game Tying goals -> 3 or more (0 of 84, 0%) MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 6 NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 7 of 84 (8%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 32 of 84 (38%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 19 of 84 (23%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 12 of 84 (14%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 4 of 84 (5%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 9 of 84 (11%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 1 of 84 (1%) DEFENSE (85 players in final sim) Goals -> 15 or more (2 of 85, 2%) Assists -> 25 or more (17 of 85, 20%) +/- -> 20 or more (3 of 85, 4%) PIM -> 15 or less (16 of 85, 19%) FIGHTS -> 1 or more (47 of 85, 55%) HITS -> 100 or more (23 of 85, 27%) Special PTS* -> 10 or more (29 of 85, 34%) Shot Blocked -> 50 or more (47 of 85, 55%) Game Winning goals -> 2 or more (12 of 85, 14%) Game Tying goals -> 2 or more (7 of 85, 8%) MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 8 NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 12 of 85 (14%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 21 of 85 (25%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 14 of 85 (16%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 18 of 85 (21%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 7 of 85 (8%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 9 of 85 (11%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 4 of 85 (5%) GOALIE (14 Starters in final sim) Save% -> .900 or more (5 of 14, 36%) GAA -> 2.00 or less (1 of 14, 7%) Shutout -> 3 or more (8 of 14, 57%) Assists -> 2 or more (6 of 14, 43%) Penalty Shot % -> 85% or more (1 of 14, 7%) Starter -> 33 or more (14 of 14, 100%) (I assume that this is games played…) Backup -> 12 or more (1 of 14, 7%) (Only 1 backup qualified, but I did notice that one…) Wins -> 24 or more (5 of 14, 36%) MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 5 NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 0 of 14 (0%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 2 of 14 (14%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 3 of 14 (21%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 5 of 14 (36%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 3 of 14 (21%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 1 of 14 (7%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 0 of 14 (0%) TOTAL: 224 TOTAL PLAYERS NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 21 of 224 (9%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 64 of 224 (29%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 40 of 224 (18%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 40 of 224 (18%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 25 of 224 (11%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 22 of 224 (10%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 12 of 224 (5%) ANALYSIS: From this, in my opinion, the milestone system is broken. If the milestone system is supposed to be a way to make up for missing a PT, then most people should be getting 3 or more TPE… but only 44% of users get 3 or more TPE, while 38% get 1 or none. Furthermore, this number is not the same across all groups. 37% of centers get less than 3 TPE and 35% for goalies, which seems not great, but at least okay… However, defenders have 55% of players failing to get a full PT out of this, while an astonishing 69% of wingers (who are not helped by the fact that the only players to qualify for the hat trick milestone were centers, who can’t claim it) miss out. There should be a better way to do this. PROPOSAL: I believe that it was GCool who suggested this, but I can’t remember. Essentially, instead of being rewarded for hitting an arbitrary number, you’re rewarded for your performance compared to the rest of your position group each season. If you’re in the top half, you get 1 TPE. I ran the numbers for this season (except for FO% and Hat tricks, as I’d only collected whether or not they hit the mark, not the actual value :facepalm: however, I was also able to calculate the forwards performance at shot blocking, which could be a way to reward defensive forwards.) Players would still be capped at 6 TPE. Here’s what that looks like: CENTERS: MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 9 NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 1 of 41 (2%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 3 of 41 (7%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 7 of 41 (17%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 3 of 41 (7%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 1 of 41 (2%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 4 of 41 (10%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 22 of 41 (54%) WINGERS: MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 10 NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 1 of 84 (1%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 7 of 84 (8%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 15 of 84 (18%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 11 of 84 (13%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 9 of 84 (11%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 8 of 84 (10%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 33 of 84 (39%) DEFENSE: MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 9 NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 0 of 85 (0%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 6 of 85 (7%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 12 of 85 (14%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 18 of 85 (21%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 8 of 85 (9%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 10 of 85 (12%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 31 of 85 (36%) GOALIES: MOST MILESTONES ACHIEVED: 5 (ONLY 7 TO PULL FROM, AS OPPOSED TO 10 FROM EVERYONE ELSE) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 0 of 14 (0%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 0 of 14 (0%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 2 of 14 (14%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 4 of 14 (29%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 3 of 14 (21%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 5 of 14 (36%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 0 of 14 (0%) TOTAL: NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED NO MILESTONES: 2 of 224 (1%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 1 MILESTONE: 16 of 224 (7%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 2 MILESTONES: 36 of 224 (16%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 3 MILESTONES: 36 of 224 (16%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 4 MILESTONES: 21 of 224 (9%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 5 MILESTONES: 27 of 224 (12%) NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO REACHED 6 OR MORE MILESTONES: 86 of 224 (38%) This change would make it possible to open up even more stats for examination, such as saves for goalies, so that goalies who face more shots get rewarded for that pain, or points/minute for skaters. We also see a general benefit to the masses, as our total users getting less than a full PT’s worth of TPE is reduced from 56% to 24%. The 37% of centers in this boat are reduced to 26%, the 35% for goalies to 14%, 55% of defenders to 21%, and the 69% of wingers are reduced to 27%. This change helps move us to a system where position groups aren’t discriminated against, and since it’s all under the 35 TPE cap, it shouldn’t contribute to any form of TPE inflation either. (I also think it would be interesting to see a Career Milestone system instituted, as McZ suggested, where you could get a free uncapped TPE for hitting totals like your 50th goal, then 100th, then 200th… or something like that, but that’s a different issue.) Hope this was interesting, informative, and persuasive! Code: 1919 words
Eggy216
Registered S30, S31 and S33 Challenge Cup Champion and Wonderbolt
I love your articles like this, Pandar.
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lil
Registered S30, S31 and S33 Challenge Cup Champion and Brigade Leader
Yep, completely agree that milestone claims should be changed to a percentage system, plus I like McZ's suggestion of career awards for round numbers.
Though if we do the latter, we should also implement GCool's suggestion of tracking career stats on player pages.
Dangles13
Registered AKA: Dangies
jason97
Registered S14, S26, S37 Challenge Cup Champion
Pandar
Registered might be a wizard Quote:Originally posted by Eggy216@Feb 20 2016, 11:11 PM Thanks, Eggy! It's nice to be appreciated :D Thanks everyone else, too!
.bojo
Site Management Just Monika Quote:Originally posted by Dangles13@Feb 20 2016, 11:17 PM
GCool
Registered RIP Lefty
YES!
Well done, Pandar. I really think putting every player's stats on a curve should determine how TPE is given out at season's end--and this is a thorough analysis!
Schultzy
Registered S11, S24, S26, S31 Challenge Cup Champion
TheNextGreatOne
Registered Mango
Possum Queen
SHL GM S24, S26, S30, S31 Challenge Cup Champion
Slappydoodle
Registered S42 Challenge Cup Champion
Very well done. =D>
Good, insightful read. Really agree with your conclusions. |
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