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mcculloughgulch · 03-14-2016, 03:15 AM

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[Ready for grading]

<div align="center"> [Image: S28ShowcaseLogoSmaller_zpsbd3sft7s.png]

S28 SMJHL Prospect Showcase

Analysis & Playoff Predictions</div>

Well, this year’s prospect showcase is drawing to a close, with only playoffs left before the SMJHL draft. With a day off today, let’s take a look at the last two weeks.

In the standings, we have the Outlaws and the Blazers tied for first, each with thirteen points and identical records of 6-3-1, with the Lions on their heels with twelve points and a 5-3-2 record, and the Stingrays trail in fourth with seven points, 3-6-1. However, each team has had some fantastic standouts and a few surprises.

<b><div align="center">ANALYSIS</div></b>

The Stingrays’ considerably poorer record may imply that they’re a lesser team, but a closer look at their stats definitely complicates that suggestion. It’s undeniable that the Stingrays had the worst goals-against average in the showcase at 3.40, but they also are taking the fewest shots against per game and are second in shots for. Four of their six losses came in one-goal games. Their faceoff percentage was second in the league, and they took the fewest penalty minutes per game.

The Stingrays’ biggest problem is their special teams, where they are third on the power play (at just under 8%) and last on the penalty kill (at roughly 86%). Additionally, their goalie, Daniel Vann, has struggled compared to his counterparts, who have played extremely well. Vann has a record of 3.33 GAA and a SV% of .886. Unless they can fix their special teams before playoffs, and Vann can up his game a little, I don’t foresee them having surprising and taking the tournament.

However, while the team has struggled, I don’t think this is a significant warning sign to potential GMs looking to draft players. The tournament’s highest scorer, phenom Felix Herzog, plays for the Rays and has put up a spectacular 20 points in 10 games, including one of the tournament’s two hat tricks. And he’s had great support from Maximum Sarone, who’s gone 8-7-15 in ten games, is second in hits with 34 in the tournament, and is fourth in the tournament in faceoff wins, at over 63%. Sarone and Herzog are the only players in the tournament to have points in every game. They also have a promising two-way center in Nicolas Winter, who had 8 points in the tournament and won 72% of his draws. Ultimately, while the team has struggled, the individual success of their players in undeniable.

Moving up in the standings, we come to the Lions, who have had a number of strong defenseman make themselves known. Particular standouts are Randolph Grey and Barak Obrana. Obrana is third amongst defensemen with eight points in ten games, and second in shots bloceds, averaging 2 shots per game. Meanwhile, Grey has seven points and has blocked 27 shots. They have a strong forward in center Lief De Bruin, who has the most power play goals in the tournament has played a solid, all-ice game. They also have one of the top goalies in the showcase, Sivy McSieve, who leads in GAA, SV%, and minutes played, all while facing the most shots against. McSieve’s play has been the backbone of the Lions, allowing them to win low-scoring, tight games. However, GMs should be wary, as chatter here in Kelowna about McSieve’s off-ice personality has been overwhelmingly negative.

The Lions are not particularly strong offensively, scoring the fewest goals per game, but they match that with the lowest goals against in the league as well, with both stats at 2.20. They have the second best power play and penalty kill in the league. They’re also the worst faceoff team in the league. However, they’re finding ways to win games with strong goaltending and defensively minded players who aren’t afraid to lay their bodies on the line. This team is blocking a lot of shots.

Up next we have the Blazers, one of the two teams tied for the league in the Showcase. The Blazers are probably the most consistent team at even strength in the league, currently in second in goals for per game at 2.90 and in second in goals against as well, at 2.50. Their PK is clicking at 90.48%, just half a percentage point above the Lions and good for first in the league. However, their abysmal power play removes them from being clear favorites; they have the worst PP in the league, converting only 7.32% of the time. Like the Lions, they’re struggling at the faceoff dot as will, winning the draw only 46% of the time.

The Blazers have had great play from LW Harry Hans, who is 8-6-14 in 10 games. However, that play may be unsustainable, as he also has the 3rd highest shooting percentage in the tournament at over 17%. Hans is backed by two strong blueliners, Darian Tupper and Fedor Gregorovitch Shirobokov, who lead the defensemen in points scored (4-8-12 and 2-9-11 respectively). The Blazers’ completeness as a team has led them to success, and feel free to foresee that success to continue--unless, of course, their power play comes back to bite them. The Blazers are backstopped by Casey Holmes, one of the more promising goalie prospects, who’s second in the tournament in GAA and SV%.

Finally, we have the Outlaws. The Outlaws have another strong all-around team with a lot of positives. Their goalie, Triforce Link, is third in the standings, but don’t let that fool you--his numbers are excellent, with a .915 SV% and a 2.76 GAA. Their standout left wing is Hans Moleman, who has sparkled with 16 points in ten games. An excellent playmaker, Moleman is second in the tournament in assists and third in plus-minus. Expect him to go high in the draft. The Outlaws also have one of the more notorious bruisers in the tournament, Gorlab, who leads in penalty minutes as well as hits.

The Outlaws have clicked very well as a team and are a strong offensive force. They’re first in the tournament on the power play, converting on one in five chances. The second-place team, the Lions, is almost ten percentage points behind them. While their penalty kill is third, it’s very strong as well at over 88%--which is good, as they’re taking far more penalties per game than anyone else in the league. Their shots-for per game is also very high, with nearly 40 shots on average a game. This has been translating to goals.

<div align="center">PREDICTIONS</div>

So, after looking at these teams and their players, what can we guess about playoffs tomorrow?

Since there isn’t much time for tweaks, I can’t imagine much will change. However, the race at the top is pretty close. Barring a sudden drastic improvement in goaltending, the Stingrays will likely fall back to fourth again, but their games are sure to be engaging and fun, with the fantastic play of their top line and prospects like Herzog and Sarone.

The Lions will be able to challenge the Blazers and the Outlaws for at least second place. I predict they might actually outlast the Blazers, taking over second with their tight, well-disciplined defensive play, and taking advantage of the Blazers’ terrible power play to keep them under control.

However, ultimately I think the well-rounded play and stunning power play of the Outlaws will win the day, pushing them past a tie to the true top of the standings. Expect them to come away with the win tomorrow as we wrap things up here in Kelowna.

Best of luck to these four teams, and good luck to the future SMJHL players in the draft tomorrow!