Login

Phobospwns · 05-31-2017, 03:12 PM

Texas had a surprising year this season, reversing a trend in which they had lost ground in consecutive years to the playoff pack in the SHL. It was a revival which occurred mostly as a result of young players stepping up and improving their game- the likes of Conklin Owen, Beau Bent, Adam Kaiser and Georgette Pel contributed in a positive way, helping push the team's vets like Jack Durden, Geoffrey Allen, Adam FÃ¤lk, Evandrus Jesster and Vladimir Lidstrom back into playoff contention.

So which direction might they go in this year's coming draft? To begin to formulate a possible target list, we've first got to examine where the needs may be in 3 season- the usual time that prospects need before they can contribute. So we're looking at possible needs in S38... Let's take a survey of the positions and see where we land.

Current Roster

Goal Tending
Currently on Roster:
[S31] Georgette Pel - 936 TPE (Prime of career by S38)
[S26] Christoffer BjÃ¶rnsson - 1246 TPE (3rd year regression by S38)
[S24] Igor Ogorodnikov - 606 TPE (5th year regression by S38)

The Renegades are set in regards to their starting goal tender- in fact, Georgette Pel is amongst the youngest starters on the roster, and already at 900+ TPE, clearly heading toward being a top TPE goal tender in those 3 seasons. The backup situation is far less clear, in fact, there is no viable back up option who is currently on the roster and likely to be there in 3 seasons. Due to that, it's quite possible that Texas picks up net minder in the draft, but it most assuredly won't be an early pick- where a team would be looking for a long term starter.

In the Pipeline:
None.

With no players in the SMJHL Pipeline, the odds the Renes pick up a young goalie to groom are very strong.

Defenders
Currently on Roster:
[S23] Vladimir Lidstrom - 1397 TPE (6th year regression)
[S26] Kristoffer Ruud - 750 TPE (3rd year regression)
[S26] Cody Black - 1290 TPE (3rd year regression)
[S27] Lord Vader - 1610 TPE (2nd year regression)
[S25] Andris BukÅ¡s - 898 TPE (4th year regression)
[S31] Adam Kaiser - 897 TPE (In his prime)

Texas is renowned for carrying a slim 6 man rotation at the defensive position, utilizing essentially a 3 line approach. It allows them to keep their cap down, and guarantee free agents big playing time... but it requires high TPE players who can withstand a ton minutes of ice time while keeping up a high level of play. With the age of the players who are currently prominent at the position, Texas is clearly going to need some fresh blood at the blue line in the next two drafts to be prepared for the erosion of skills that age has on those players. 5 of the 6 current defenders on the roster will be in their 2nd year or later of regression, the point at which the loss of a step cannot be masked, no matter how much players try. Aside from Adam Kaiser, young talent on the roster is absent.

In the Pipeline:
[S34] Eddie Andrezejeck - 405 TPE, active

The Renegades youngest prospect in the minors right now, Eddie has shown to be a very promising player, already topping the 400 TPE mark, and only just now through his first full season. There's a good chance the Andrezejeck could be pulled up as early as Season 37, where he could likely contribute on a bottom 4 pairing. By Season 38, he may be ready to jump up to a top 2 grouping. The fact that the Renes control his right alleviates their depth problem to a degree, but they'd still do well to look to add at least 1 more prospect this season.

Left Wingers
Currently on Roster:
[S25] Adam FÃ¤lk - 1507 TPE (4th year of regression)
[S25] Jack Durden - 1646 TPE (4th year of regression)
[S30] Conklin Owen - 1101 TPE (hitting his prime)

Clearly Texas favors taking Right Wingers and converting them to Left Wing, but regardless, they do have some pure left wingers on the roster in Falk, Durden and Owen. All 3 players are relatively high TPE wise, but the first two aforementioned players will be hitting their 4th year in regression by the time any Season 35 Draftee Prospects get pulled up. On the other hand, Conklin Owen should be coming into his full maturity around that time. With 2 high TPE players who should still be serviceable, even in 3 more seasons, and one player who should be a star by that time, any draftee who came in as a left wing would likely be able to be brought up slowly through the ranks of the SMJHL followed by a year or two on lower lines at the SHL level. That bodes really well for any "project" players that Texas might be interested in, perhaps in the 2nd and/or third rounds in the draft. Of course, if the Renegades are unable to re-sign winger Conklin Owen this offseason, that need could change pretty quickly- creating a need to pull Durden or Falk up a line, creating a void in the 2nd or 3rd lines as a result.

[i]In the Pipeline:
[S34] Lucas Meier - 222 TPE, inactive
[S33] Zanarkand Abes â€“ 605 TPE, active

While Meier has shown that there's likely no SHL future in store, Zanarkand Abes has put forth the exact opposite. With 605 TPE over a 2 year junior career, Abes will likely spend 1 more season in the minors before making the jump. By S38, Abes should be around the 1000 TPE mark, which will make him a high quality contributor for the team, probably on the second pairing (due to Owen's presence), or with an opportunity to dominate on a 3rd/4th line situation. High TPE aging vets FÃ¤lk and Durden, along with Owen and Meier, probably mean that LW is not an absolute must in this draft... but perhaps in following years it may be.

Right Wingers
Currently on Roster:
[S25] Geoffrey Allen - 1607 TPE (4th year of regression)
[S26] Rick James - 1047 TPE (3rd year of regression)
[S30] Kip Kippery - 158 TPE
[S31] Michael Burrows - 461 TPE
[S31] Vasily Horvat - 642 TPE (should be entering his prime)

Despite the volume of right wingers currently on the Texas Renegade roster, they may have trouble brewing for the future, when you look at each player individually. The likes of Geoffrey Allen and Rick James are both dependable players, but both will be several years into regression- and while they won't be devastated by Season 38, they'll be feeling the burn. Vasily Horvat has been a complete bust since being drafted, and Michael Burrows- despite showing great promise throughout his SMJHL career, has also appeared to have stopped progressing, a likely bust himself. Vasily Horvat is the only young player who is showing any ability in the SHL level, getting his "sea legs" under him this past season. Even if he keeps up, he will be the only winger capable of top line play, alongside Conklin Owen, who isn't in regression. Similar to the left wing position, someone drafted in Season 35 would be able to be built up patiently, setting them up for long term success.

[i]In the Pipeline:
[S31] Reed Laing - 873 TPE, active

At 873 TPE, Lang could have made the jump up to the SHL this season, but with the depth that's currently in place on Texas' roster, he didn't have to. This is a guy who should be fully in his prime by Season 38, and we'll probably see him alongside Conklin Owen and Beau Bent on the top line for the Renegades. With Horvat around, and Allen likely still being a strong player, along with the venerable Rick James, the Right Wingers on Texas should be solid, but of the two winger groups, this might be the side to invest in.

Centers
Currently on Roster:
[S19] Liam Kinsler - 995 TPE (most likely retired by S38, but maybe not?! Wink

[S25] Evandrus Jesster - 1354 TPE (4th year of regression)
[S27] Alexander Charlyb'y - 800 TPE (2nd year of regression)
[S30] Beau Bent - 586 TPE (should be hitting his prime)
[S30] Jean ChrÃ©tien - 177 TPE (total SHL bust to date)

Much like both winger positions, with only 1 center who won't be in regression by the time Season 38 rolls around, Texas has a need for picking some young players up to stack the pipeline. Liam Kinsler, one of the longest tenured players in the league as a whole will, if he's still playing at all, be a 4th liner. Their current top center, Evandrus Jesster, will be 4 years into regression. Alex Charlyb'y, a faceoff specialist, will be in his second year of regression- but without an ultra-high TPE count currently, he'll likely be behind higher TPE players whose regression is more advanced. That leaves only Beau Bent as the lone prospect who should, by then, be a top center.

[i]In the Pipeline:
[S33] Joonas Rasmussen â€“ 312 TPE, active

Rasmussen has been a slow by steadily building player in the SMJHL for 2 seasons up to this point. In that time he's managed to hit 312 TPE, not exactly what you're looking for in a future top 6 center, but rather the type of role player that most teams need holding down that 3rd/4th line center spots. With only 1 player primed to become a star, only one high TPE regression center, and 2 role playing guys on the roster, this is a big area of need for the Renegades, at the most important position.

Players on track to be in their prime: 5 - G, 1X D, 1X LW, 1X RW, 1X C
Players at 1k+ TPE, but will be in regression: 8 - 1X G, 3X D, 2X LW, 2X RW, 1X C
Players at 700+ TPE, but will be in regression: 3 - 1X C, 2X D.
Players likely to be retired: 2 - 1X G, 1X C
Junior Players showing promise: 4 - 1X D, 1X LW, 1X RW, 1X C

With a strong core, and a number of players strongly on the rise, Texas looks to be a team who will be in contention to make the playoffs, or maybe even compete for a cup, for some time. This draft class which is upcoming should be able to cash in on some of the talent that's on board currently, likely spending their rookie and sophomore years taking on a role most young players should be able to handle. That being said, there's some clear areas of need in the future for this team. Center is probably the most glaring weakness in the future for the Renes, followed closely by Defense. Goal tender wise, Texas is probably set with the starter, but they don't have much for prospects as a backup. With the rules in place that the backup goal tender must play, and with how close races for playoff spots are in the league, they should probably look ahead and consider it as well.

Top Needs: Center, Defense
Secondary Needs: Goal Tender, Right Wing

Possible Targets

Center

Players to avoid: Ziv Alekzandrov (155 TPE), Dylan Peat (155 TPE) - These guys haven't been able to distinguish themselves in any way from any other prospects in the SMJHL. At best, these guys will be career SMJHL players, but most likely, you'll see them wash off rosters pretty quickly. No way will Texas look in their direction, I'd be shocked if any teams did at all.

Possible late round pick: Gord McKenzie (161 TPE) - After what appeared to be a strong jump from Canadian U17 teams into the SMJHL system, Gord tapered off, and has become stagnant in his growth. Personally, if I were GM, I wouldn't even bother, but the leadership in Texas has shwon they're willing to take fliers before. Someone like McKenzie might be worth a slip in the 5th round or later... but ultimately, it's not all that likely.

Mid Round Pick: Chris Smulander (210 TPE) is a pick which might end up resembling Joonas Rassmussen in his career- a player who steadily builds, but at a rate which will likely never land him as a top player. Smulander could be a replacement for a player like Charlyb'y, a role player who indeed has a place in this league. This is the most likely available player at the center position for Texas in the draft, so odds are pretty good that he ends up in Texas.

Top Target: Robert Phelps (323 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2572' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-62'>DrunkenTeddy</a>) is clearly the top center in this season's draft. At 323 TPE, his advancement in his rookie SMJHL year has been rapid, and he's showing the signs of potential synonymous with top picks historically. Phelps is the type of pass first, 2 way center men, which are coveted in the league. There's a pretty solid chance he won't even be available for Texas to pick, with their Western Conference Finals appearance putting them in the 11th overall slot... but if he's there, Texas should absolutely take him. A solid player who has shown dedication and a will to grind, he's likely to be a star by season 40.

Defense

Players to avoid: Thor Ljunggren (155 TPE), Adrian Deckar (161 TPE), Caleb Harding (165 TPE), Kevin St. Lauren (175 TPE), Jake Brosnan (172 TPE), Suri Uedo (183 TPE)

Maybe if you've got your 7th round pick coming up, and people are passing left and right, one of these guys might be worth taking... but even then, might as well pass. Esepcially on a big club that runs only 6 defenders, you might as well save a few pennies and let these players fall by the wayside.

Late Round Picks: Shoyu Kikkoman (228 TPE), Ryan Richter (193 TPE), Hoid Wit (199 TPE), Jack Sanders (203 TPE)

Truth be told, some of these "late round picks", if they were at any other position, would probably get looks at late 1st, early 2nd round chances, given their TPE counts. The fact of the matter is, with such a deep defensive class, some nice talent is going to get pushed down the boards, as teams scramble to gobble up the more scare positions- like center. There's a good chance at landing some great value here, so if you're in this category, don't get down on yourself, you're just caught up in a numbers game.

Mid Round Picks: Niklaus St. Croix (249 TPE), Chuck Goody Jr (245 TPE), Trucker Grogan (228), Jack Hansen (219 TPE), Jack Johnson (208 TPE)

Again, the line between "late round" and mid round was very tough to draw this year, for this group of players. These players have a slight edge in TPE, and have been slightly more active. Some of them come from respected minor systems, and are more well known to those in front office positions around the SHL. Picking up any of these players in the 2nd round, or especially the 3rd, would represent big value in the future.

Top Targets: Finn KrÃ¼ger (296 TPE), Fedor Shirobokov (269 TPE), Indesvara Magar (262 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2586' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-3'>dandydoodle</a>), TomÃ¡Å¡ Toothsome (242 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2563' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-62'>Sapiens</a>), Khet Chupp (247 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2578' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-3'>TheKandyCinema</a>)

These players are the top of a big group, all of them have a ton of potential to go on to be stars in the league. The top few players, Shirobokov and especially KrÃ¼ger, will likely be capable of making the step up to the SHL after just 2 SMJHL seasons; which, in Texas' case, might be a necessity- depending on how long some of the older vets hang around. Naturally, it's unlikely the top 2 will be available to Texas, and maybe even down through the top 3 players will be off the board, but there will a nice option at a position of need available. Barring an unlikely big run on D, Texas is going to have their pick of a nice group- and even should that occur, that would mean top talent from another position group may fall. Any of these players, given 3 years to mature, should be able to step in and contribute on a lower line respectably.

Right Wing

Players to avoid: Maxwell Andrews (155 TPE), Alexandre Lebeau (175 TPE), these guys just haven't done anything to make anyone believe they will amount to anything beyond 4th line SMJHL scrubs. With Andrews, it's a real disappointment, as there was high hopes for him from a young age- but not all young stars turn into the players they were destined to become. These guys are only worth an undrafted free agent signing for the min.

Late Round Picks: Jack Dore (175), Jay Beagle Jr. (237 TPE), Yuri Bakos-Markov (258 TPE), there's a few players in this group who have shown flashes of their abilities, but it's just not happening as often as GMs like to see. Dore probably has shown the most recent potential in this group, but even still, taking any of these players with a pick higher than a 4th round pick would be a knock against a GM, unless they know something we don't. Then again, if any of these guys turns into something, the club that picks him will look like a genius.

Mid Round Picks: Cam Ouellette (219 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2603' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-3'>Camo</a>), Scotty Steele (260 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2588' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-3'>good_dude_great_hands</a>). I'm personally a fan of new comers who have shown that they can advance, and have been diligent in their progression. That's what these level players represent. While they may not have the reputation or the raw TPE to vault themselves into the top levels of the draft, they'd be worth a 2nd to 3rd round pick- it looks like they'll pay dividends in the long run, or at the very least, they could be trade bait to pick up future picks. TPE count isn't everything, and I think these guys have more than meets the eye to them. I think Scotty Steele could be an absolute steal on draft day- pun intended.

Top Targets: Spitfire (312 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=1174' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-67'>Storm</a>), Louie Garrett (305 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2565' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-52'>dizzyDC</a>), Sophia Bennett (302 TPE) (<a href='index.php?showuser=2582' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-30'>goilers</a>), there's a clear group of 3 right wingers who are above and beyond the rest of the group. It's unlikely that Spitfire will be available to the Texas Renegades at 11, if he were, I think he'd be the pick, but there's next to no chance that happens. Garrett and Bennett both stand a much better chance of making it deep into the first round, so it's possible that 1 of them will be on the board when the Renes are on the clock. If it's me, in the first round, I'd take either of these players. Bennett in particular reminds me of myself at the SHL draft- a relatively unknown player who has shown great potential- but GMs are often weary of the unknown. She could slip outside the first round, but should that happen, I would hope it's used as fuel to become great.

Goal Tenders

There's only 4 goal tending prospects, and with Texas' need for a starter covered by Georgette Pel, there's no real chance you'll see Texas going with a goal tender early on in the draft- so ranking between mid, upper, and lower level prospects is a bit of an exercise in futility. The goalies on the board are, in the rank of best to lest in my opinion: Artom Zhumbayev (280 TPE), Jordin FourFour Jr. (247 TPE), Aleksandr Aleksandrov (230 TPE) and Carrick Murray (269 TPE)

Who I think Texas May Draft

As I mentioned, a lot of the best players won't be there, with Texas holding such a low pick this season. Just going off my instincts, and who I think might get picked, I think the following are the most likely to end up on Texas' roster when it's all said and done:

1st Round

I think most of all, Texas needs a center. But, Phelps will be off the board before 11, I guarantee it. The next best options aren't worthy of a first round pick... so frankly, I think there's a chance Texas will want to get out of that spot. That's a bit of a stretch, and it's hard to predict with whom they might trade, so I'll stick with them making a pick regardless. As I noted, their second biggest need is Defense, and given the number of high quality selections, even if 4 or 5 go before their pick, they're going to get a good one. My guess?

D - Khet Chupp

I think Chupp will be available, and I like the fact that he's been so determined, even as a newer guy, to get toward the head of the pack in his position. I think he could grow into a solid defender, with Defense, Passing and Strength as his build's strong points. He'll fit in well with a team who will need to add some young future talent, and he'll bring a physical presence that is useful, without being over done, to the roster.

2nd Round

I'm going to go out on a limb here, but I think that it's quite possible that Texas doubles down on Defense in the draft- again, spurred on mostly by the lack of talent up the middle who is coming out this year. It'll be tempting to take a winger who's fallen, but ultimately, they can't ignore their pressing need at the blue line.

D - Trucker Grogan

I think there's a decent chance that SHL GM's may be weary of Grogan, as he's the second generation player of his manager, WheelingMoms, in less than 12 months. We've seen players who've had short prior player careers fall in the draft, and at just over 220 TPE, Grogan isn't so high in TPE count that GMs will look past that. A strong LR in Texas, and GMs who aren't afraid to pick up a guy who would probably fit in well there, would suit him well. If he falls that far, I could see him being the 2nd round pick.

3rd Round

RW - Scotty Steele

In the 3rd round Texas has a shot at picking up some good value players, and I think Scotty Steele will stand apart as a guy who slides, justified or not, outside of the first two rounds. Steele is a relative newcomer, and his TPE count isn't phenomenal, but all too often GMs take players off their boards for that very reason, when there's a good player to be had. I'm hoping Texas is the beneficiary of that effect, and we get ourselves a solid winger who will be ready to go in a big way in Season 39 in the draft here.

4th round

G - Aleksandr Aleksandrov

If there are any goal tending prospects left on the board by the time the 4th round rolls around, it might be a decent opportunity for Texas to pick up a possible future backup- at the very least to turn into picks down the road. I think Jordan FourFour Jr. and Artom Zhumbayev will be well off the board by the 4th, with Carrick Murray standing a good shot of having a GM take a chance on him based solely on the fact that Hoovuh is so well liked in this league. That leaves Aleksandr Aleksandrov as the only one I see as a possibility in this spot. If the last goal tender is there, I think the Renes should take a flier, and hope for the best.

-----

So there you have it... an in depth look at the Texas Renegades current organization, the SMJHL players that they currently hold the rights to, and the holes which they may look to fill in this draft. Texas has a good year to need a defensive player on their hands, with an opportunity to pick up some very nice players, possibly even their future first pairing. There's some nice skill players on the board who may slide down simply for the fact of being somewhat unknown, and Texas has shown in the past they're not afraid to roll the dice on a player like that (like yours truly). Good luck to all the prospects out there, and to those who do indeed end up playing for Texas, we'll be waiting for you.