Vancouver entered the S35 SMJHL regular season as heavy favorites to win the Four Star Cup. Behind a team stacked with TPE, the Whalers were expected to make quick work of teams that had less experience or a history of under performing in the league.

However, things have not gone as planned for the Vancouver Whalers, and I fear that the team is doing much worse than what meets the eye. Vancouver has fared well against Halifax, who they have played 7 times. The Whalers are 5-2 over 7 games, and have three more meetings with the Raiders before the season comes to an end. In these games, the Whalers hold a +7 goal differential and have amassed 70 total points across those 7 games.

Against other teams, however, Vancouver has struggled. The team is 5-6 against all other teams in the league, including a rough 1-3 record against Kelowna in a 7 game regular season series. Kelowna has served as a solid foil against Vancouver, and has time and time again pulled out wins despite close games. Winning games in the SMJHL involves a bit of luck, and luck has been on the side of the Knights in bouts against Vancouver this season.

Colorado has proved to be a tough matchup for the Whalers as well. Over two games in a six game regular season series, the teams have traded wins. However, the stats tell a different story. Vancouver has averaged 15 PIMS in each of those games. While the man advantage has proven to be a wash, this constant time on the penalty kill has absolutely destroyed any momentum that Vancouver has been able to gain.

One reason Vancouver has had problems this season is terrible luck in the Sim. The Whalers lead the league in shots for by an average of nearly two additional shots per game. However, Vancouver is having trouble creating goals out of those opportunities. Nine goalscorers are shooting less than 10% on the ice, including prolific scorers Spitfire, Chippy Chiclets, and Matthew Rossi II. For a team on paper that prides itself on its scoring prowess, these players need to get their numbers up if Vancouver is to see some wins against much tougher teams in the near future.

The statistical regression in shooting percentages should get Vancouver back on track, but will that be enough to get them to a 4 Star Cup Finals? Some line changes could be incoming that might help Vancouver get some young stars started back up again. For example, Brandon Gauthier's passing could be utilized to get Rossi II and Shirou's goal totals up on the third line, especially with Spitfire picking up the slack on the assist front. A shakeup of the bottom pairs, especially a shakeup in strategies, could get players like Johnson Jack and Hoid Wit producing to their normal levels. Finally, the powerplay has been atrocious, and a strong center like Brandon Gauthier can win faceoffs while moving Spitfire to the first unit would help set up Sophia Bennett to fire them home on the man advantage.