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Julio Tokolosh · 03-06-2019, 02:20 AM

TL;DR - I've taken all rookie's TPE and compared it to where they were drafted. Sorry for the block of text, charts are being prepared for the next post.

Rookies eligible for the Season 47 draft have a solid 12 games of statistics to be assessed by at a professional level. All rookies start at the same ability level and are able to distribute their initial 155 TPE wherever they deem appropriate. Players that are rebuilds will have a slight advantage in knowing that putting stock in “Defense” is more important than “Penalty Shots” even if your build is modeled after the least defensive dangler of all time. A playmaking forward that errantly put a few too many points into “Checking” is able to reallot them for a fee. So after everything is said and done, TPE should work as a function of skill. Whether or not the game's statistics reflect the off-ice efforts is a crapshoot, after all, hockey is a game of bouncing pucks. But in a vacuum, the players with a higher TPE eventually will help their team more than a player with a low TPE.

How good is the current crop of rookies? Without week by week data from previous seasons, this question is impossible to answer. The best way would be to present findings on current rookie abilities and have them observed by older players, who could easily say “yea, I was better than these guys but not as good as Bathory.”

All players start at 155, so that is assumed to be the skill level of the worst player. A player that is at 155 TPE in week 2 (after 2 updates), should be considered untouchable by all franchises unless they know something that the rest of the league doesn’t (i.e. “she’s a rebuild of a hall of fame player who has been traveling for the past 3 weeks”, “it is my cousin who just got into it, joined late, but he’s been grinding, and it will be easy for me to keep tabs on him”). TPE opportunities aren’t exactly fruitful, but the basic ones are enough to get a player to 160. With that in mind, since the close of the 45th season, there have been enough TPE opportunities for a player 2 weeks in to be leveled up to roughly 250. In order to do this, the player would need to purchase the necessary equipment and have perfectly predicted their mock draft, while participating in every activity check, world-class training, prospect interview, Reddit upvote, twitter repost, training camp, and followed the tutorial perfectly (if you’re late, these are pretty much all locked at this point).

Thomas Bathory and Filip Zadina have come the closest, at 234 TPE. They have grinded for weeks before the rookie draft. A combination of media posts, graphics posts, and money left over from previous builds enabled them to purchase the training and equipment that they needed long before most players had even picked out a weakness.Westbroek and Sodderberg are right behind them at 227, and SixNine at 226, but when does the countdown lose its relevance? (Much lower, obviously those are all great players). I have kept my findings strictly to skaters (Goalies have a different progression path, it wouldn’t have made sense to compare them). Predicting a players course is extremely difficult, gauging interest, TPE pursuit, forum activity, and discord chatter are all things that need to be weighed when deciding which player a team should draft.

All rookies currently average 192 TPE, ranging from a stinky 155 to a Bathorean 234. The standard deviation is roughly 24, so for the sake of determining who is “elite” or on an elite track, 192+24 = 216 TPE will be the number to hit to be considered dangerous. If you are reading this as a second+ year player, odds are that you were above average at this point in your first year. Assuming that everyone who is "average or below" is out by their second season, the average moves to 214 (and standard deviation to 10.5). Players below the current average are assumed to have either stopped participating, or joined late (making them outliers), or not participating enough to competitively make a future roster. A range from maximum to mean minus one standard deviation gives us a top 25, which I've listed as follows (none of this will need anything once the next updates go into effect. With inactive players stagnating and participates growing, the relevant average will rise competitively).

Top 25

Thomas Bathory 234

Filip Zadina 234

Martjin Westbroek 227

Gunnar Soderberg227

Akashi SixNine 226

Seemu Telanne 225

Joseph Laraque 223

Vadim Malichov 221

Charlie Serpe 221

Austin Roenick 216

Jules L'Eclair 216

Marc Hagan 216

Corey Kennedy 215

Espen Knutsen Jr 215

Boruvka Banananak 215

Cullen Gray 215

Juulius Smonk 214

Jax Duggan 213

Eko Van Otter 212

Tony Ford 212

Esa Parmborg 212

Gunnar Petrov 211

Julio Tokolosh 210

Jaguar Johnson 208

Aaron Wilson 205

Best Value

In regards to when they were drafted in relation to how their week 2 TPE effort has been, the following players are considered “steals”:
- Akashi SixNine - COL (performing 29 places better than draft location)
- Martjin Westbroek - ANA (20)
- Jules L’Eclair - LBL (20)
- Mattie Brunton - STL (14)
- Slap McShotty - ANA (13) Anaheim, what-up
- Przemysław Brzeszczyczkiewicz - DET (13)
- Aaron Wilson - WHA (12)
- Vadim Malichov - KEL (10)
There are plenty more who are performing up to 10 spots better than they were drafted, but i stopped for relevance sake, and gave special considerations to players in the 216 range.

Worst Value

In regards to when they were drafted in relation to how their week 2 TPE effort has been, the following players are considered “low value”:
- Esa Parmborg - HAL (-20) The Parm-God? Lets give this another week or two to grow the sample size, yikes.
- Isaiah Reece - HAL (-20), ooh, back to back Halifax?
- Ender Zavala - HAL (-18), Halifax, what is you doin, baby.
- Kobe Krisp - HAL (-17) I just cant look away
- Lex Peters - DET (-17) thank god, Halifax
- Tony Ford - ANC (-14)
- Joe Ackroyd - WHA (-13)
These findings are a little less noteworthy, because Parmborg, Ford and a few just outside of the list are still performing at a high level, and were not “bad picks”

Appropriate Value

In regards to when they were drafted in relation to how their week 2 TPE effort has been, the following players are considered “Appropriate value”:
- Thomas Bathory - LBL (within 2 spots of TPE ranking and draft spot)
- Gunnar Soderberg - KEL (1)
- Austin Roenick - LBL (1)
- Boruvka Banananak - LBL (3)
- Cullen Gray - WHA (1)
- Ja'aj Coitus-Wagg - COL (1)
These findings are a little less noteworthy, but I just find them interesting that the noted players have performed roughly as well as projected. Unfortunately, there were a handful of late 6th rounders who were just as inactive as the general managers predicted that they would be.

Please reply with comments telling me that my math doesn't make sense, or why my logic is flawed, or what you think my parents think of what I've done with my life.

Up Next: Julio’s Draft Rankings after 2 weeks (ongoing)

Sami · 03-06-2019, 04:39 AM

Okay your math doesn't make sense and your logic is flawed and your parents must be disappointed because I'm not on your list.

awils13 · 03-06-2019, 09:04 AM

03-06-2019, 02:20 AMJulio Tokolosh Wrote: - Esa Parmborg - HAL (-20) The Parm-God? Lets give this another week or two to grow the sample size, yikes.
- Isaiah Reece - HAL (-20), ooh, back to back Halifax?
- Ender Zavala - HAL (-18), Halifax, what is you doin, baby.
- Kobe Krisp - HAL (-17) I just cant look away

rekt

***hhh81*** · 03-06-2019, 09:45 AM

Good work, Toko!

Julio Tokolosh · 03-06-2019, 10:42 AM

03-06-2019, 04:39 AMSami Wrote: Okay your math doesn't make sense and your logic is flawed and your parents must be disappointed because I'm not on your list.

@Sami it looks like you should have been marked at 213 (currently 222). I'm not sure why the list had you at 198 (your first update cycle). I'll post corrections and a more in-depth look later this week. thank you for pointing this out.

If I have to click on every players' update page, at least I'll get up to date numbers.

***luke*** · 03-06-2019, 10:46 AM

@Julio Tokolosh http://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=89187

If you want to continue with this, it will make your life easier

Sami · 03-06-2019, 10:46 AM

No worries, it's still great work and I look forward to the next one.

Julio Tokolosh · 03-06-2019, 10:57 AM

03-06-2019, 10:46 AMluketd Wrote: @Julio Tokolosh http://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=89187

If you want to continue with this, it will make your life easier

Yea, this probably would have been a bit easier and more efficient than manually scraping numbers. How often do you update each season? Thank you for sharing this resource.

***luke*** · 03-06-2019, 10:59 AM

03-06-2019, 10:57 AMJulio Tokolosh Wrote:
03-06-2019, 10:46 AMluketd Wrote: @Julio Tokolosh http://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=89187

If you want to continue with this, it will make your life easier

Yea, this probably would have been a bit easier and more efficient than manually scraping numbers. How often do you update each season? Thank you for sharing this resource.

Every week on all the sheets. I didn’t yet this week because I got 2 exams today. But I update every week

FourFour · 03-06-2019, 11:34 AM

03-06-2019, 10:59 AMluketd Wrote:
03-06-2019, 10:57 AMJulio Tokolosh Wrote: Yea, this probably would have been a bit easier and more efficient than manually scraping numbers. How often do you update each season? Thank you for sharing this resource.
Every week on all the sheets. I didn’t yet this week because I got 2 exams today. But I update every week

Is there a way it could be connected to the updating sheet so it becomes auto updated every time the player is updated ?

***luke*** · 03-06-2019, 11:35 AM

03-06-2019, 11:34 AMFourFour Wrote:
03-06-2019, 10:59 AMluketd Wrote: Every week on all the sheets. I didn’t yet this week because I got 2 exams today. But I update every week
Is there a way it could be connected to the updating sheet so it becomes auto updated every time the player is updated ?

That’s what I do, but I have it off to the side because when FA’s join they mess up the whole system.

Wibbly McButternutz · 03-06-2019, 11:54 AM

I gotta step up my game...

Good post.

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