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StadiumGambler · 06-01-2019, 06:32 PM

(Word count is 3417, plus 2x draft media bonus)

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I need to get paid, then laid, in that order. Since NHL 94 projects might not pay the bills and I always run into recording screwups, its time to ruthlessly exploit bonuses in media! Welcome to the Gambler's Ramble.

So this offseason I will do a draft needs analysis of all 16 teams across the league's 4 divisions to break down their rosters, the current direction of the team, and what their next course of action should be. After all these breakdowns I will post a draft board and then a (very) rough mock draft article.

I will rate players according to a scale similar to EA NHL's Dynasty mode. Players will be described with a future position in their careers, and then a note in brackets describing what I think their chances of achieving their future position is. The scale is as follows:

Star = projected to get 1500+ TPE and be a guaranteed pick in fantasy groups. Generally max every relevant attribute.
Elite = projected to get ~1300 TPE and be first line/first pairing for most teams, maybe a bit below that on juggernauts.
Top 6 F/Top 4 D = projected to get ~1000, maybe a little higher or lower TPE. Can be second line or second pairing on most teams, maybe first line on weaker teams and 3rd line on stronger teams.
Top 9 F/Top 6 D = projected to get 600-900 TPE. Are third line/third pairing guys for most teams, although defense gets a little more leeway below 600
Bottom 6 F/7th D = projected to end up around the SMJHL cap for TPE. Would be 4th liners if teams used 4th lines, can be 3rd liners in a pinch, and for defenders might get an occasional shift with a top pairing dman protecting them on the 4th pairing
SHL Extra F/D = 155-250 TPE guys that are meme roster filler

For goalies

Star = Maxed out, or near maxed out if they don't believe certain attributes work
Elite = Nearly maxed out
Starter = Around 800-1000 TPE, are acceptable for most teams but juggernauts would want better. Can win cups though (hi grok!)
Fringe Starter = Around Richard Hocolate level, a guy who can come in in a pinch and not be embarassed
Backup = Around the SMJHL cap
Extra G = Around league minimum and just there to fill the roster

Then besides that in brackets I put:

[EXACT] = The player is in regression and thus can't improve from what they currently are. They have reached their potential, whatever it may be.
[HIGH] = The player has a great chance of reaching their potential and a small chance of falling short.
[MED] = The player has a decent chance of reaching their potential but might fall a level or two short.
[LOW] = The player has an outside chance of reaching their potential but will probably fall a level or two short.

Obviously this isn't an exact science so I'll cover my ass with alternate predictions in brackets. If you disagree, feel free to flame the bejesus out of me in the replies below!

IF ANY PLAYERS ARE DEFINITE FREE AGENTS THAT AREN'T COMING BACK, OR IF ANYONE LISTED IS RETIRED FOR NEXT YEAR, PLEASE LET ME KNOW!

We'll start with the Northwest Division, home of some of the league's most iconic franchises. A Challenge Cup contender will regularly come from this division (and in fact did this year as Calgary got back to the finals), but a few teams within are at a major crossroads. Missteps here will sink the franchise, so lets break each team down and see whats going on.......

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Winnipeg Jets - Jets

Season 47 Performance: Better than expected, all things considered! According to analytics (from aaronwilson I believe) the Jets rode high luck-based stats and the collapse of the Minnesota Chiefs to finishing within 5 points of a playoff spot. While some would've been happier to see the Jets completely tank, its still an encouraging step forward. Next year the Jets plan to make callups and push towards a playoff berth by improving the forward depth, and are hoping for a banner year from top defense pairing Gary Grease and Troy McClure.

Season 47 Record: 22-25-3 (47 Points), 12th place in League, Missed Playoffs

S47 Draft Picks: WPG 1st, (WPG 3rd, depends on conditions), WPG 4th and 5th

Centers
Jason Visser S31 - [EXACT] Star (Will regress to Elite within a season or two.)
Michael Scarn S46 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite? [HIGH] Top 6 F???)
Nolan Snipez S38 - [EXACT] SHL Extra F

Wingers
Lil Manius S43 - [HIGH] Star
Ola Wagstrom S44 - [HIGH] Star
Nick Brain S46 - [HIGH] Elite ([MED] Star?)
Noah Gallagher S47 - [HIGH] Elite ([HIGH] Top 6 F? [MED] Star???)
Commander Shepard S46 - [LOW] Star ([MED] Elite? [MED] Top 6 F??)
Ignatius Blunt S43 - [HIGH] Top 6 F
Corey Bearss S31 - [EXACT] Top 9 F (will regress to Bottom 6 F within a season or two.)
Ace Redding S31 - [EXACT] Bottom 6 F
Vladimir Vaskov S42 - [HIGH] Bottom 6 F
Andrew Hawkins S40 - [HIGH] SHL Extra F
Jensen Trygg S40 - [HIGH] SHL Extra F

Forward Prospects
Juulius Smonk S47 - [LOW] Elite ([LOW] Top 6 F? [MED] Top 9 F? [HIGH] Bottom 6 F????)

Defensemen
Gary Grease S39 - [HIGH] Star
Troy McClure III S42 - [HIGH] Star
Slip McScruff S45 - [HIGH] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)
Dylan Karlsson S46 - [MED] Top 4 D ([HIGH] Top 6 D? [LOW] Elite??????)
Max Weber S32 - [EXACT] Top 4 D (will be [EXACT] Top 6 D in a season or two)
Max Poulin S39 - [HIGH] Top 6 D (will be [EXACT] 7th D in a couple seasons)
Hypolact Asia S39 - [HIGH] SHL Extra D
Chase Byron S36 - [EXACT] SHL Extra D

Defense Prospects
Jax Duggan S47 - [LOW] Star ([MED] Elite? [MED] Top 4 D??????)

Goalies
Cedric Moreau S39 - [HIGH] Fringe Starter
Vivian Leblanc S45 - [MED] Starter ([HIGH] Fringe Starter?)

Draft Needs: Depending on the board and barring any last-minute trades, the Jets may only get one meaningful crack at the draft, as their second round pick this season was traded in a swap with the Chicago Syndicate to move up in S46 draft positioning (they used the move-up to select Commander Shepard, so not a bad move if he pans out).

If every single prospect currently in the system pans out for the Jets, they will have an acceptable core in terms of Wingers and Defensemen. The question marks are at Goalie and Center. Goaltending could be a bit of an issue for the Jets, as Moreau and Leblanc have their ups and downs as legitimate starters, and seem to be more in the line of luxurious backup options for a contender that doesn't have a J goalie in the pipeline. However, burning a high pick on a goaltender may not be the best idea in any draft (even though 4 intriguing options of varying quality are available), so the Jets should look to get a committed Center first and see if they can get a goalie prospect later depending on Leblanc's career arc. This could lead to a selection of Center Mika Kandisky depending on how the board flows.

Depth defenseman could also be a decent pick for the Jets, in the unlikely event a decent one falls to Round 3 or 4, offering protection in case they brick it with Dylan Karlsson or Jax Duggan.

The only meaningful trade piece for the Jets is Jason Visser, but I don't think trading the franchise icon for picks and prospects would go down too well with the fans, and it would affect the Jets attempt at a playoff push (whether warranted or not). Corey Bearss and Max Weber could be flipped to a team desperate for depth pieces, but there wouldn't be much in the way of return there.

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Calgary Dragons - Dragons

Season 47 Performance: The Dragons were supposed to be in a tear-down and rebuild mode following the retirement of the iconic Esa Anrikkanen, but they sprung a surprise over the past couple years, making the playoffs twice and shocking everyone this year with big upsets over the Edmonton Blizzard and Texas Renegades to make it to the Challenge Cup Finals. Unfortunately Goaltender Kata Vilde had a rough series as the Dragons were swept by the West Kendall Platoon in 4 straight.

Season 47 Record: 28-16-6 (62 points). 4th in League, 2nd in Playoffs, Lost Challenge Cup Finals 0-4 to the West Kendall Platoon

S47 Draft Picks: CGY 1st through 5th

Centers
Mike Izzy S35 - [EXACT] Star (A few seasons away from being [EXACT] Elite)
Nick Pedersen Jr. S43 - [HIGH] Star
Barry Batsbak S46 - [MED] Elite ([MED] Top 6 F? [LOW] Star??)
Paddy O'Sullivan S39 - [HIGH] Top 9 F

Wingers
Shooter McGavin S40 - [HIGH] Star
Maxime Bouchard S45 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)
Rainbow Dash S44 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite? [HIGH] Top 6 F???)
Hunter Jones S38 - [EXACT] Top 6 F
Mikael Choybuk S44 - [HIGH] Top 6 F ([MED] Elite?)
Brock Nuck S44 - [HIGH] Top 6 F ([MED] Elite?)
Mason Hudson S43 - [HIGH] Bottom 6 F

Forward Prospects
Esa Parmborg S47 - [HIGH] Star

Defensemen
Otis B. Driftwood S40 - [HIGH] Star
Ostap Maksimov S39 - [HIGH] Elite
Chico Smeb S46 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)
Brennan Kennedy Jr. S46 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)
Casey Creller S36 - [EXACT] Top 4 D (Will regress to [EXACT] Top 6 D in a season or two)
Your Overlord S38 - [HIGH] SHL Extra D

Defense Prospects
Bernik Vrzala S46 - [MED] Elite ([LOW] Star?)
Oliver Klozoff S46 - [LOW] Elite ([MED] Top 4 D?)
Olin O'Dowd S46 - [HIGH] SHL Extra D [i]([HIGH] 7th D? [HIGH] Top 6 D?????)[/i]

Goalies
Kata Vilde S41 - [HIGH] Star
Richard C. Hocolate S29 - [EXACT] Fringe Starter (Will be [EXACT] Backup soon)

Draft Needs: The Dragons are actually set up VERY well for success, and could even sell picks for better depth if they wanted. If all their prospects pan out they'll be setup to have a mighty core that will no doubt contend again, and they'll have another half dozen seasons at least from the Augment to back up the youngsters.

Selling may be the best strategy, but given that the Dragons aren't a cursed franchise that absolutely needs the Cup now, making a stable contender and valuing the culture is the more likely route. There will probably be only two meaningful picks on the board due to the playoff successes, and if I were the GM, I'd go Defense and Goal for the picks. Vilde is set for a while, but Richard Hocolate is sure to hang it up soon and a new stable backup may be nice for the Dragons to have.

I would wager due to prior history that the Dragons would take a chance on Alexander Thorstrom if he falls to Round 2. We'll revisit this when I do my draft board to see who would fall to them in Round 1 however......

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Edmonton Blizzard -

Season 47 Performance: The Blizzard were once again one of the best teams in the league, after taking some steps backward in S46 and needing a tiebreaker to make the playoffs. The end result was the same as last year however, as they lost the Battle of Alberta to Calgary, this time in the Conference Semifinals.

Season 47 Record: 33-16-1 (67 points). 2nd in League, T-5th in Playoffs, Lost Western Conference Semifinals to the Calgary Dragons 2-4

Draft Picks: EDM 1st and 2nd, TOR 2nd, EDM 3rd thru 5th

Centers
Hercules Rockefeller S37 - [EXACT] Star (Will be [EXACT] Elite in a couple seasons)
Tony Pepperoni S43 - [HIGH] Star
Derrick Glover S32 - [EXACT] Bottom 6 F (will be [EXACT] SHL Extra F in a couple seasons?)

Wingers
Teddy Cuddles S36 - [EXACT] Star (Will be [EXACT] Elite in a season or two)
Joseph Lombardi S36 - [EXACT] Elite (Will be [EXACT] Top 6 F soon?)
Willy Mack S44 - [HIGH] Star
Cory Knouse S32 - [EXACT] Top 6 F (Will be [EXACT] Top 9 F in a season or two)
Bernard Freeman S44 - [LOW] Top 9 F ([HIGH] Bottom 6 F? [LOW] Top 6 F????)
Adam Taylor S43 - [HIGH] Bottom 6 F ([HIGH] Top 9 F?)
Evan Cordes S43 - [HIGH] SHL Extra F
Barbie Tanner S37 - [EXACT] SHL Extra F
Logan Crosby S40 - [HIGH] SHL Extra F

Forward Prospects
Marc Hagan S47 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)
Julio Tokolosh S47 - [MED] Star ([MED] Elite? [MED] Top 6 F???)
Boruvka Banananak S47 - [MED] Elite ([LOW] Star? [MED] Top 6 F?)
James Truong S46 - [MED] Top 6 F ([MED] Top 9 F? [LOW] Elite??)
Savoli Tankovic S47 - [LOW] Top 6 F ([MED] Top 9 F? [LOW] Elite??? [HIGH] Bottom 6 F???)
Cant Eykhil S46 - [LOW] Top 9 F ([HIGH] Bottom 6 F?)
Hans Zucker S46 - [HIGH] SHL Extra F

Defense
Brady MacIntyre S39 - [HIGH] Star
Tor Tuck S37 - [EXACT] Star
Ensio Kalju S40 - [HIGH] Star
Karlstrabe Scholz S46 - [HIGH] Star
Chippy Chiclets [EXACT] Top 4 D (Will be [EXACT] Top 6 D in a season or two)
Viktor Valentine S40 - [HIGH] 7th D

Goalies
Tommy Tuck S39 - [HIGH] Star
Mark Stewart S38 - [HIGH] SHL Extra G

Draft Needs: The Blizzard are at a true crossroads, and the future direction of the team, good or bad, tanking or pushing, is going to come down to this offseason. If the Blizzard decide to push, it would be a sage idea to try and retain Joseph Lombardi, then package Savoli Tankovic (who wants out of Edmonton), and a high pick in exchange for a short-term asset, preferably a winger. The Blizzard have an extra 2nd rounder this year (courtesy of a trade to Toronto that gave the North Stars Halfdan Thorstein), so that would be an asset that gets moved if the Blizzard take one final crack at a Cup to round out their current core's legacy. Marc Hagan could also be called up to shore up the forward depth for the Blizzard.

If the Blizzard decide to build for the future, trading Cory Knouse as a depth piece to a contender might be the best plan if franchise stalwarts Tor Tuck, Teddy Cuddles, and Hercules Rockefeller get kept. Another projected star defenseman to complement future franchise d-man Karlstrabe Scholz would be a great idea for the Blizzard.

Regardless of the future direction the franchise takes, getting a goalie should be considered a priority for the Blizzard. If they're pushing for another Cup, getting wins in the backup games with a better option than the hot mess that is Mark Stewart would help. If they're rebuilding, they could use a future replacement for star netminder Tommy Tuck. Tuck should still be a surefire starter for at least half a dozen more seasons, but better to plan ahead...........

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Minnesota Chiefs - Chiefs

Season 47 Performance: This season was an absolute disaster for the Chiefs. A team widely expected to win their division or at least be 2nd and in the playoffs crashed and burned under the weight of puck luck and an aberration year from Goaltender Sebastien Primeau. This was followed by a co-GM hire that got immediately hammered by head office for tampering and now the Chiefs have some decisions to make while awaiting the status of their appeal. The only upside for them is that at least they've won a few Cups before and don't have that noose hanging around their neck. That and some shrewd selling off that leaves them with quite a lot of draft capital to work with this year.

Season 47 Record: 19-25-6 (44 points). 14th in League, Missed Playoffs

Draft Picks: (MIN 1st, pending appeal), MIN 2nd, MAN 2nd, BUF 2nd, MIN 3rd, TEX 3rd, BUF 3rd, MIN 4th and 5th

Centers
Terrance Nova S32 - [EXACT] Star (Will be [EXACT] Elite soon)
Eric Pelletier S36 - [EXACT] Top 6 F (Will be [EXACT] Top 9 F soon)
Conor McGregor S40 - [HIGH] Top 6 F ([MED] Elite?)
Mika Mayfield S45 - [HIGH] Elite ([LOW] Star? [HIGH] Top 6 F?)
Nickolas Klaus S45 - [MED] Top 9 F ([LOW] Top 6 F? [HIGH] Bottom 6 F??)
Sam McGrizzley S37 - [EXACT] SHL Extra F

Forwards
Bobby Watson S38 - [HIGH] Star
Eero Niemi S43 - [HIGH] Top 9 F ([LOW] Top 6 F?)
Dean Colt III S44 - [MED] Top 9 F ([LOW] Top 6 F? [HIGH] Bottom 6 F?)
Sinn Nolan S36 - [EXACT] SHL Extra F
Sterling Slaughter S35 - [EXACT] SHL Extra F

Forward Prospects
Collin Gibbles S46 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)

Defense
Ti-Guy Emond S39 - [HIGH] Elite
Geoff Moore S42 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)
Sanyi Kocsis S45 - [HIGH] Elite ([MED] Star?)
Caelan Fearghal S33 - [EXACT] Top 6 D (Will be [EXACT] 7th D soon)
Dwayne Wyder S36 - [EXACT] Top 6 D (Will be [EXACT] 7th D soon)
Luisa Koller S36 - [EXACT] 7th D (Will be [EXACT] SHL Extra D soon)

Defense Prospects
Mathias Seger S46 - [MED] Star ([HIGH] Elite?)
Jerry Mander S46 - [HIGH] 7th D ([HIGH] Top 6 D? [LOW] Top 4 D???? [LOW] Elite????????)
Igor Volkov S47 - [MED] Top 6 D ([HIGH] 7th D? [LOW] Top 4 D??)

Goalies
Sebastien Primeau S39 - [HIGH] Elite ([HIGH] Star?)
Casimir Stevens S46 - [HIGH] Backup (at minimum, could be [HIGH] Fringe Starter if he uncaps and [HIGH] Star if he keeps going with the game. Not sure what'll happen here so dropping the format temporarily.)
Mark McFleury S44 - [HIGH] SHL Extra G

Draft Needs: This is going to get edited approximately 50 times, as the circumstances pre-draft might rapidly change for this biblical covenant curse currently masquerading as a hockey team. Suffice it to say if the absolutely ludicrous decision from Head Office stands, Minnesota has no choice but to tear down and rebuild, meaning the most likely trade piece (assuming no contract conflicts) is Ti-Guy Emond. Terrance Nova would be as well but is rumoured to be walking in Free Agency. Honestly, Minny could probably trade Bobby Watson and Eric Pelletier too, since they probably won't be around for the end result. Jerry Mander might also be a candidate as a minor trade piece, as hes made it clear hes retiring after spending a full five send-down years with the Outlaws, however he could be convinced to unretire and be at least a useful depth defense piece for a contender.

If the Head Office punishment gets a reduction to Cap room and FA signing at least, then I think Minnesota could be risky and gamble for a final all-in push to get a Cup with whats left, since their rebuild is going to be hampered anyways (unless the punishment is fully rectified and they get the picks back too, which is unlikely). If they retain Terrance Nova and get a final piece to complete the top line they're back in business, although defense is a concern. With the draft capital at hand they could pick up such a forward and maybe even a new top defender to replace the departed Poopity Scoop. The downside to this however is that several other teams are also making big-time pushes to cash in with their current core, so there would hypothetically be more of a seller's market (thus justifying a rebuild more than a last, desperate swipe at glory).

For the actual draft itself, Minnesota needs.......... everything, honestly, except maybe goaltending (depending on what happens with the career of Cashmere Stevens). Forward, defense, and most importantly locker room culture seem to be lacking in the current squad. Given recent events, its best to make sure that everyone on the team, regardless of potential, contributes to a positive locker room culture that can rebuild the squad's tattered reputation. With 3 second round picks to work with, even with no first rounder theres an outside chance of pulling an elite talent, but they MUST fit with the new culture that the Chiefs have to create here, instead of ptoentially creating more toxicity that excarbates the current problem and cause stars on the cusp of breaking out to want out. It'll be a long rebuild to clean up the mess (provided theres not any Chicago Syndicate-like puck luck coming the Chiefs way to compensate for last year's disaster.), but with the draftcapital the Chiefs have at hand and a solid new Co-GM hire in Leppish, they could clean up this intimidating mess if they play it right..........

StadiumGambler · 06-02-2019, 03:25 PM

OK this is now mostly done, but I'll make some last-minute edits as draft day approaches before actually leaving this for grading. If you disagree with what I've said in this article feel free to tell me why I'm wrong as meanly as possible in the replies below!

Next up will be the Southwest Division! I'll try to get the skeleton up tonight or tomorrow then flesh it out gradually.

Serpe x 13 · 06-02-2019, 03:34 PM

good read. I like that the grading scale is similar to NHL franchise mode.

Trautner · 06-02-2019, 08:29 PM

Awesome read and detailed breakdown on each team. The Chiefs situation is definitely one to monitor. I was really surprised to hear that the team was punished that severely, with an almost franchise killing penalty. We'll see if and how the team can respond, or if they may become a lost franchise.

FlappyGiraffe · 06-03-2019, 02:13 AM

Quote:Nolan Snipez S38 - [EXACT] SHL Extra F

I take extreme issue with this ranking, we all know Snipez is the face of the franchise

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