07-08-2018, 12:31 PM(This post was last modified: 07-08-2018, 03:07 PM by JayWhy.)
A TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS OF NEEDS AND STRATEGY
With the SMJHL Draft fast approaching – beginning this evening on SHL Network at 8 p.m. eastern – we have seen an incredible influx of talent preparing to make the jump into the league. While many organizations are reviewing individual players or rankings, here at The Athletic, we'll be reviewing the teams themselves. Based on their needs, we're going to do a pre-draft assessment of what we expect of them tonight. Later, we'll have a post-draft assessment of how they did at addressing their immediate needs as well as future needs. The post-draft will be team-by-team articles, while the pre-draft is all combined. This list is in draft order, so as the teams come for their first pick, we will address them.
ANCHORAGE ARMADA
TOP PLAYERS: Benjamin Blue (S41), Grayson St. Raegan (S39), Viktor Kolesnikovs (S39), Jordan Von Matt (S42), Cameron Carter II (S42)
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: Viktor Kolesnikovs, Tim Patton, Niklas Mueller, Chazz Michaels, Grayson St. Raegan
The recently rebranded and moved team from Prince George to the Northwest corner of North America comes into the evening with the first overall pick in the draft. They own three picks in the first two rounds, then don't pick again for 19 selections. With that in mind, they can't just focus on best player available early like many do. This team will have to address their needs quickly. Based on statistics from last season, Anchorage had poor possession with a 48.12% BBP% and were the luckiest team in the league with a 100.80 PDO. They still failed to make playoffs and had major struggles in that regard.
Strategies may need to be adjusted when it comes to the on-ice product, however in the draft, they have a clear immediate need: impact players.
While the team has enjoyed success from Grayson St. Raegan and Viktor Kolesnikovs, this is their last season of SMJHL eligibility and beyond them are players who either had their work ethic come into question or who struggled along the way in development. They do feature the recent fourth overall draft pick in the S42 SHL Draft of Jordan Von Matt, however, few players can truly carry teams on their own. They luckily have a strong goaltending situation, and while they need a back-up, that is something that can be addressed later in the draft. Early on, they need to fill out their forward line-up, probably grab what will be their fourth best defenseman out of the gate and focus on increasing their scoring.
In the long-term for needs, they are looking for centers and defensemen. The majority of their graduates for next season will be in those positions and they need to prepare for the future with replacements. Likewise, their biggest impact players of St. Raegan and Kolesnikovs are among those graduates and they need the skill players to take their place in the line-up. They were the second worst offensive team in the league by a mile, only five goals more than Halifax but 19 fewer than Detroit.
We expect with the first overall selection, they'll be addressing their need for a center early. While any impact player is useful, they will likely look the way of Jax Aittokallio, Goku Muerto or Leshaun King.
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: Freddie LaFlame, I Shattenkirksbed, Jack Parker, Hans Gruber, Zach Hartery
This team is the ideal of a rebuilding franchise. With 12 draft picks in tonight's event, they are expected to be big players in one of the biggest drafts in SMJHL History. This was a well-planned effort which included trading players like Manhattan's Reginald MacIntyre and Los Angeles's Jon Toner last season. In terms of play last season, Halifax was easily the worst in the league. They scored the fewest goals with just 124. They had the worst BBP% with a 48.02% possession rate, and they were even marginally lucky with a 100.22 PDO. They have a long way to go, but are well set up to be a heavy player in the SMJHL in the coming seasons off this draft.
When it comes to their immediate needs, they have what any team that performs so poorly needs: everything. Well, except goaltending. Similar to Anchorage, they need impact players, most importantly.
Currently, they have two centers on their roster who are both in their final season of eligibility and the best of whom -- Hans Gruber – scored only 4 goals and 21 points. They don't have many other players who are in their graduating season, with Freddie LaFlame being the only other notable in net. However, the team has already filled the postion LaFlame is vacating with the 10th overall selection in the S42 SHL Entry Draft Geezus Kryyst, another great prospect. With that in mind, they have placed themselves well to not have to focus on a shorter goaltending pool, even for a back-up, and be able to only grab impact skaters who will drive play forward as they desperately need to do.
Shooter McGavin is on an island in Halifax as a superstar, having 11 more points than his next highest teammate Quinn Cullen. Both of those players are S40, and with that, only have two more seasons of eligibility left if they continue for both seasons. This is as clean of a slate as you can get with a team.
As for future needs, the team once again needs everything except the goaltender. Kryyst is young, however going to a team in Hamilton that will be in need of a goaltender soon enough. They should keep that in mind, of course, and be in contact with GMDT of Hamilton about the plan moving forward. If they focus in on goaltending early on, they may have gotten bad news. More likely, they would be well-planned to grab a goaltender in the later rounds to allow for a longer development period.
Due to the extremity of their team at this point, Halifax is going to be a fascinating case to pay attention to. They could go just about any route off the bat. This would be an ideal landing place for a high-skill forward such as Max Mauldin, had he not made it clear he intends to only play for the Colorado Raptors and fall to fourth overall. Instead, expect the Raiders to focus on Leshaun King, Crush Cile and Marc Palicka with their gluttony of early selections.
VANCOUVER WHALERS
TOP PLAYERS: Alex Andani (S41), Jean-Luc Picard (S40), Herb Robert (S42), Eriks Skalbergs (S42), Tokek Takshak (S42)
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: Guts O'Bigbers
A team that was incredibly successful in recent seasons is also sitting at the top part of the draft. The third overall selection follows with 21 picks where they sit and wait, but getting that high-level impact forward can be massive early on. This is especially true for a team that has had the success they've had and is only guaranteed to graduate one player after next season and two the season after. This team is well-built for the long-term. Meanwhile, they were also fantastically coached last season having been third in BBP% with a 50.57% possession rate and were only minorly luckily with a 100.25 PDO. They made moves to acquire players in a win-now mode and unfortunately fell short, but nonetheless are well set up for the foreseeable future even despite graduating their top scorer Kolja Seppanen from last season.
The general manager of this team for last year was recently hired on as the general manager of the Hamilton Steelhawks, however, and things have changed. The room is expected to be able to rally behind the new guy in charge without problem. At this point, their only immediate need is staying the course with an opening in their top-6 on the dot available this season.
As mentioned, they had graduated Seppanen from last season. It's expected they'll be moving David Kastrba up the line-up, however with the vacancy being at center, they may be more likely to move O'Bigbers up and looking to fit a player in the middle-six. In terms of the long-term, it appears center may be a big vacancy for them. Their defense is incredibly well set with six experienced players, and I don't look for them to make any moves for defensemen in this draft, electing until next season.
Their future need may come to defense next draft, however for this season it appears their future need is more replacing Guts O'Bigbers and solidfying the middle of the line-up. They have so few holes, it's difficult to really set anything long-term, as they were a very well managed team by GMDT.
I expect to see them in the goaltender market early on. While they have a starter currently, it never hurts to grab a back-up and begin preparing for the future where you may not have them despite the opportunity for Santos to be around for three more seasons. However, once they've placed a center or two into the line-up, they're pretty well set and forget with maybe wanting to grab a few wings to take the place of top picks from the past two seasons Alex Andani and Herb Robert once they make their way up.
Look for Vancouver tonight to be targeting Goku Muerto, Snipperri Baardownen or Philipp Winter.
COLORADO RAPTORS
TOP PLAYERS: Cash Savage (S41), Ryan Gardiner (S39), Kevin Maddox (S41), Maui (S42), Scottey Crawfling (S42)
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: James Jamason, Baron O'Beefdip, Ryan Gardiner, Doc Digreasi
With Mattias Enqvist and Anders Christiansen apparently graduating to the SHL next season to Los Angeles and Toronto respectively, it appears the top scorers on Colorado are on their way out. Luckily, Colorado has a largely solidified top-four on their defense with Kevin Maddox, Maui, Sachimo Zoidberg and Nico Wallner. Last season, this defense helped lead the team to a dead even 50% BBP% landing at fourth in the league – dead center. They were slightly unlucky, though not much, with a 99.66 PDO. However, with Enqvist and Christiansen both heading to the big leagues, they may feel they're more unlucky than that.
In the short term, the Raptors are very much in need of scoring forwards. They mostly need playmaking and skill of any kind in the early parts of this draft, but it should be expected to be focused up front. With their top two scorers on the way out, replacing that kind of playing time and skill is a difficult task.
Luckily for Colorado, the early story of the off-season was the entrance of Max Mauldin to the draft and his somewhat infamous request in that he'd only play in Colorado. Mauldin is the son of a legendary PHL player, and is known as a fantastically skilled and high-impact player. Expecting him to fall to fourth is a given considering the level of talent at the top and the request he had made, and he should fill a void.
They will be looking to grab any skaters they can however, with the future in mind. Their future needs, which will also be incredibly helpful for the present, are depth players. They're graduating four players, two defensemen and two forwards. They should be looking defense in the middle-parts of the draft. Seeing as they had to forfeit their 22nd overall selection, they are short a pick that could have been useful toward gaining additional pieces. The early picks used on players like Maui and Zoidberg, as well as the skill of Maddox and Savage being very appealing in the SHL level, it's expected they could see players graduate early from the SMJHL level. Gardiner and Digreasi graduating this season being guaranteed, forwards will be the immediate need. However, all around players are always welcome for any team.
It would be an absolute shock if we didn't see Max Mauldin selected with the fourth pick. However, if they do break from the expectation, we could see this as a landing place for Marc Palicka, Crush Cile or Nicky Pedersen Jr.
ST. LOUIS SCARECROWS
TOP PLAYERS: Daniel Karlsson (S41), Tony Snow (S39), Friedrich Schmidt (S39), Nicholas Falk (S42), Gordie Maple (S41)
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: Friedrich Schmidt, Kyle Davis, Tony Snow
Another team who has a forfeited pick, this one at 23. They will be going 20 selections between their first pick and their second, meaning they need to make it count with their first selection. This is a team that enjoyed success recently, with last season ending with a 30-14-6 record and topping the league in possession with a 52.55% BBP% despite being somewhat unlucky with a 99.56 PDO. They are absolutely a crème-de-la-crème club in the SMJHL last season that is now suffering due to that success. From last season, they graduated or otherwise moved 4 of their top-5 scorers, only maintaining Tony Snow. The losses of Paddy O'Sullivan , Carter Manning, Michael Fischer and Jack Daniels will be heavily felt on the line-up.
In terms of immediacy, this team is in dire need of impact players in the same way rebuilding teams like Halifax and Anchorage were ahead of them. However, their success in the season prior will likely keep them from the absolutely best in the draft, being at 5th overall, they can absolutely land a magnificent player. Unfortunate for them is their lack of other high selections afterward, meaning they need to really bunker down on their moves following this pick and focus on what needs they can address immediately in this draft. With the ever-growing number of potential draftees, expect to see some gems later in the draft, but making use of those picks to find them is where the difficulty comes in.
The team currently has no natural left wings and only one natural center on their listed roster, which means they will be in the market for high-impact players up front. However, they also only list three defensemen on the roster as well! This could be a landing spot for our first defenseman off the board. This is one team that is incredibly difficult to read going into the draft due to their needs both immediately and for the future.
Speaking of future needs, they need everything but one thing that isn't an immediate need, but could be necessary soon is goaltending. This is the first team to actively need to look for a goaltender.
While they have three on the roster currently, yes the same as the number of defensemen they have. Two of their goaltenders are S39 and entering their last season of eligibility, and the third goaltender has faced criticisms before for his work ethic. I would keep an eye on them as a team that could be an early player in the goaltender market as well, and possibly the first goaltender off the board in this draft. They will need to fill in defense, as Daniel Karlsson will be expected up in Texas sooner than later knowing their situation and having one center and no left wings means they could legitimately be after any player.
This team is the perfect "best player available" team in that no matter who they pick, they'll be filling a need as well. However, at the fifth selection things get tricky. They could go any direction and as such I could see our first defenseman off the board. I expect them to target players like defenseman Tig Murphy, or forwards Nicky Pedersen Jr. and Eero Niemi. They are the true wildcards of the draft in the middle of the first round.
DETROIT FALCONS
TOP PLAYERS: Flacko Lagerfield (S41), Lightning Jones (S41), Kyle Keenan Jr (S39), Papa Huligans (S40)
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: Aleksandr Aleksandrov Jr (Retiring), Michael Owens, Filip Armstrong, Sticken Pucker, Hypolact Asia, Finn McCool, Kyle Keenan Jr.
We are outside of the first round at this point, though not yet done with teams. There are three teams who won't be selecting in the first round. Luckily, two are still selecting in the second. Detroit has the earliest pick of those with the tenth overall selection. Unluckily for Detroit, they are coming into a season where they will be expecting to graduate a lot of players. The majority of their depth for this coming season will be gone the next, so they need to use these 11 picks wisely for the future. In terms of the present, Detroit was sixth in the league in BBP% with a 49.11% and had a somewhat lucky season with a 100.38 PDO. The present was fine to Detroit, but they're more of that middling team where the bottom could fall out instead, carried along by fantastic players in Flacko Lagerfield and Lightning Jones.
The immediate need for Detroit is to surround Lagerfield and Jones with more skill and specifically address the net.
While the goaltending situation appears resolved with two available to play any given night, both are low-skill players and one announced he'd be retiring at the end of the season. I expect this to be among our first goaltenders off the board, in a race with St. Louis. However, I don't expect it to be prior to the 20th selection, more likely coming at picks 28 or 36. Instead, their early focus in the top-20 should be on high skill players who can fit alongside Lagerfield and Jones. The considerable skill from those two has dragged along less-than-stellar teammates previously, but should not be relied upon so singularly. Papa Huligans had a fine season on the back-end, but is their only true skill player along the blue line.
In a holding pattern with these players, expect Detroit to be just after anybody they can get with skill. In terms of future needs however, they absolutely need a goaltender.
No team can be successful without a good goaltender in net, or at least a serviceable one. In the case of Detroit, their only serviceable one is retiring and they absolutely need the skill there to make up for any lack of it ahead of them. The likeliest scenario is what I stated earlier, but don't be surprised if a goaltender does go earlier than expected in order to win the race with St. Louis for their guy. Since this is a team like St. Louis in need of filling just about every spot in the line-up in one way or another, it's one to expect the unexpected with and just enjoy the ride.
In terms of players available here and the expected pick to be made, I could see Detroit going for former players kids like Nicky Pedersen Jr., Philipp Winter or going for a defensemen themselves with Tig Murphy.
MONTREAL MILITIA
TOP PLAYERS: Radovan Hudec (S40), Piotr Czerkawski (S41), Daniel Daniil (S41), Rafe Ulrich (S42), Harvey Danger (S42)
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: Grease La Roache, Rocky Park
The great news for Montreal, they aren't expected to be graduating any key players due to eligibility after this season. They also have had multiple high SHL draft picks in recent seasons, including first overall and third overall in S42 in Rafe Ulrich and Harvey Danger. They have a good amount of picks and had relative success last season being fifth in the league in BBP% with 49.62% and a near even of 100.19 in PDO. They only lose two of their top-five scorers next season in Ensio Kalju, their top defenseman, but he's already been replaced by Danger and Dayymo Ralchankinov, their top center. The bad news for Montreal comes in their immediate need.
The Montreal Milita absolutely need a goaltender. It is without a doubt. They have one on the roster who is below subpar.
They could probably use some depth in their line-up, but that isn't very persistent. They've got a solid cast on their line-up and definitely appear prepared for this season to be a breakout for them if they can find a solid goaltender to fill their biggest need. However, picking in the second round is not the place for a goaltender. While that may be their only pressing need, they could be looking to get players to supplant La Roache in the top-four of their defense or Ryan Peters in the third line role at center, considering he's a more subpar option.
In terms of future needs, when you have high picks like Ulrich and Danger, or well developed high-skill players like Piotr Czerkawski, you can expect them to be called up. Ralchankinov and Kalju both are graduating early as they have surpassed this level and it can be expected the three prior named players will be making that jump sooner than later as well. They should be looking to add depth and skill, especially down the middle and on the blueline.
They'll be strong on the wing for this season and likely next, barring changes of heart by certain SHL teams. The defense is graduating two players this season, and has one more to graduate the season after. If they can fill the center and defensive roles in this draft with early picks they could be well set up for the long-term future.
With them focused on goaltending, I expect to see a goaltender off the board at pick 20 or 27. However, when it comes to their first pick this seems an ideal landing spot for Snipperri Baardownen or Maximilian Egger.
KELOWNA KNIGHTS
TOP PLAYERS: Kata Vilde (S41), Daddy Mack (S40), Michael Fischer (S39), James Dekens (S40), Xavier Paquette (S41)
TOTAL DRAFT PICKS: 6 (41, 45, 53, 61, 69, 77)
PLAYERS ENTERING FINAL SEASON OF ELIGIBILITY: Deku Izuku, Elias Svensson, Michael Fischer, Matthias Berk, Mirio Togata, Pete J. Walker, Fenton Uriel
The reigning back-to-back Four Star Cup Champions are definitely reeling heading into S42. They'll be losing four of their top five scorers, only maintaining Daddy Mack from the previous season. They have a lot of players also entering their final season of eligibility and it appears the sun may finally be setting on the recent dynasty of the Kelowna Knights. However, they definitely aren't going out without a fight. In route to a second consecutive Four Star Cup victory, Kelowna was second in the SMJHL last season with a 51.94% BBP% and were the unluckiest team in the league last season with a 98.68 PDO. They've made multiple moves this offseason, trading picks to gain high value players such as Michael Fischer and Pete J. Walker to attempt a third straight run before the bottom potentially falls out on them.
In terms of needs immediately, Kelowna will be looking to add heavily to their defense. Unfortunately for Kelowna, they don't pick until the 40s in this draft! While that's halfway and there are plenty of good options available, it's going to take serious work to find the necessary skill in order to be successful in this draft.
The good news for Kelowna, they don't need to go for a goaltender. They still carry Kata Vilde over from their previous two Cup wins, and while they need a back-up, they can wait to the very end for it. Going into the season with only three defensemen on the roster and two of them in their final season of eligibility, this team is looking down the barrel at having to rely very heavily on Vilde. While Vilde has been stellar thus far, exhaustion and fatigue could kick in soon enough and they would benefit from having some help there.
The key to Kelowna is more in their future needs of just about everything, especially centers. The defense is paramount to success next season and beyond, but centers they're fine on until they eventually graduate Fenton Uriel and Pete J. Walker at the conclusion of the season. These are their top two centers heading into next season and will absolutely need high skill forwards who can fill those roles after them. They will also be losing their top two defensemen, their top wing as well as likely others in that range. They are truly a team in need of everything in the long-term. Defense is immediate, but this team is on a heavy downswing at this point trying to stay competitive.
I cannot even begin to guess who will be available when the 40s come around in tonight's SMJHL Entry Draft, and will not attempt to predict who Kelowna could target. However, I'm sure they've done their homework and we can expect to see them targeting defense early on in their draft.
This concludes our pre-draft look into the strategies that may be in play later this evening in the S42 SMJHL Entry Draft. Of course, these teams would know better the possibilities at hand with regards to what SHL general managers may be preparing to do with their players. However, there are obvious needs in both the immediate and distant future for every team and we can expect to see them looking to address them tonight.
Look out for further coverage later this week as we check back on each team's draft and review how they performed in addressing their needs, as well as looking into the coverage of different prospects available.
Quote:Word Count: 4309. Double media week is going to try to kill me.
This was an interesting one to write, been working on it just about all morning. We'll see how it goes, and good luck to all those being drafted. I tried to address multiple different people in this article, so I do apologize if I didn't name you but I just was grabbing possible options and trying to keep the article realistic as well. I'll be doing review articles this week for each team individually, so we'll see how this goes. RIP Me.
An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.
Kristaps Ball not a top Vancouver player? Even at 350 TPE?
First Ever SHL Goal:
Code:
5. New England Wolfpack , Kristaps Ball 1 (Piotr Czerkawski 1, Cameron Dubois 2) at 16:27
First Ever Hat Trick:
Code:
S45 Game 46 NEW vs TOR
6. New England Wolfpack , Kristaps Ball 1 (Artemi Berezin 3, Tigole Bitties 5) at 5:21
9. New England Wolfpack , Kristaps Ball 2 (Artemi Berezin 4) at 18:58
10. New England Wolfpack , Kristaps Ball 3 (Tigole Bitties 7, Manuel Gotze 2) at 19:38 (Empty Net)
JayWhy![[Image: Draft-Board-1024x581.jpg]](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2018/01/27222454/Draft-Board-1024x581.jpg)
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Tomen
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