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***boom*** · 02-27-2020, 08:31 PM

[1354 words, ready for grading]

With the quarterfinal matchups shifting to the lower-seeded teams of Newfoundland, Kelowna, Colorado, and Vancouver, some trends are starting to emerge. Let's dive into the stats and try and project how the rest of the series will go.

#1 Detroit (29-18-3) vs. #8 Newfoundland (24-21-5) Berserkers

Detroit currently leads this series with two wins on their home ice, and they've done it by pretty much sticking to the script that got them the best record in the SMJHL this season and overwhelming their opponents with offense. In Game 1, they jumped out to a 6-2 lead and chased Berserkers goalie Steven Vassallo with four goals on ten shots, then rode out the rest of the game for a 6-4 victory. Game 2 was more structured, as the Falcons were up 2-1 after the first period and gradually added to their lead throughout the game, culminating in a 4-1 victory and a two-game series lead as the series shifts to the Rock. If they can keep controlling play on offense and getting looks on the Berserkers, they'll be in good shape.

For the Berserkers, it's pretty easy to pinpoint the issues in the first two games. First, the penalty kill has been dreadful, only killing off 3 of 8 in the first two games. Newfoundland simply can't keep taking undisciplined penalties, because they will pay for it against the Falcons' lethal power play in this series. Steven Vassallo was awful as well in Game 1, giving up four goals in ten shots in less than half a game of work. He was a little better in Game 2, going 32/36, but Vassallo will have to prove that he can steal a game for Newfoundland to have a chance in this series. Detroit's issues are similar. Their penalty kill has given up three goals on nine attempts, and while A Jobin has two wins, he's been merely adequate with five goals against on 37 shots for a mediocre 0.865 save percentage. If Newfoundland can shut down Detroit's offense in a building that will no doubt be electric for their first-year team, they might be able to have a chance against a shaky defense.

#2 Carolina (29-18-3) vs. #7 Kelowna (25-18-7) Knights

This is a rather unlikely scenario that I don't think anyone could have predicted, but the Carolina Kraken, a team stuffed to the gills with top-six forward talent and with one of the better goalies in the SMJHL in Mike Hroch, are down two games to none and heading to British Columbia against a seventh-seeded Kelowna Knights team. The first game of the series was a closely pitched back-and-forth battle where neither team could pull ahead by more than a goal. Carolina outshot Kelowna 28-26 and both teams had a power-play goal. It was one of the better games of the playoffs so far, and a shame that one team had to lose. Regardless, Kelowna got the upset 5-4 victory on the road. No big deal, these games happen. All Carolina had to do was collect themselves, regroup, and come back out in Game 2 and tie the series, and for 20 minutes, it seemed like they were doing just that. The Kraken outshot Kelowna 14-10, and despite a late power-play goal for the Knights, were up 2-1 heading into the first intermission. And then the second period began and everything fell apart. Carolina took four penalties in the middle frame and two more in the third period, and gave up two second-period goals to the Knights while shorthanded to put Kelowna up 3-2. What's more, the high-powered offense only managed five shots the rest of the way.

We'll never know what happened between that first and second period, but we do know that Kelowna has been red-hot away from home these playoffs. Despite their rather pedestrian 1-2 record and -2 goal differential at home, the Knights are a stunning 5-0 and +10 with two shutouts away from the cozy confines of Prospera Place. This bodes well for the seventh seed, as they'll be on the road more for the rest of the playoffs unless Newfoundland somehow comes back. For Carolina, this Game 3 is absolutely pivotal. They need to play a full sixty minutes of disciplined hockey and get back to their offensive ways, or this will be a very short postseason.

#3 Colorado (27-16-7) vs. #6 St. Louis (26-19-5)

Just four points separated these two teams in the regular season, so this series was projected to be a toss-up. Colorado, however, is quickly taking control of this series in the first two games, with 6-2 and 3-2 victories over the Scarecrows as the series shifts to St. Louis. The first game was a wild match that evoked comparisons to the 9-1 blasting that the Raptors laid on the Scarecrows late in the regular season. The game plan was typical defense for the Raptors, as they only allowed 21 shots on second-year goalie Samat Beibitzhanov and didn't allow a lot of chances. Colorado stayed disciplined too, not taking a penalty in this game. The keys to a Raptors victory were that the normally dormant power play, second-worst in the league in the regular season, scored twice on five tries and Scarecrows goalie Elizabeth Doyle, one of the best in the SMJHL, had an uncharacteristically poor performance with four goals against on 17 shots before being replaced with Jason Voorhees. The second game between the two teams was more of the same. Colorado killed off all three penalties they took and only allowed 22 shots on Beibitzhanov, and the offense really showed out in this game, putting 37 shots on Elizabeth Doyle and scoring a timely third-period goal by Sven Svenson just 18 seconds after the Scarecrows had cut the lead in half.

Going forward in the series, Colorado doesn't have too much to complain about so far, as they've played two defensively sound and disciplined games. Raptors rookie defenseman Bradley Barkov needs recognition in particular, with two goals and three assists, as well as a fight for good measure. St. Louis, meanwhile, needs to tighten up significantly on defense. One of the worst offenses in the league this season should not be getting 37 shots in a game. As well, if they can't get through Colorado's defensive brick wall, it's over.

#4 Anaheim (27-17-6) vs. #5 Vancouver (24-16-10) Whalers

One of the more anticipated matchups of this second round has so far lived up to expectations, with the two teams trading one-goal victories in Anaheim. The first game of the series, a 4-3 Whalers victory, immediately set the tone for how things would look the rest of the way. Vancouver jumped out to a 2-0 lead near the start of the first period, but Anaheim chipped away at the deficit and eventually tied the game 3-3, but Francois Breton broke through with the winner midway through the third period. Both defenses and penalty kills did their jobs, with Vancouver winning the shot battle 27-26 and neither team recording a power-play tally. The second game was a classic defensive battle. This time it was Anaheim's turn to take an early two-goal lead, and picking up the first special-teams marker of the series while Whalers rookie William Hartmann was in the box for hooking. It took over a period for either team to finally solve the opposing goalie, with Stracimir Petrovic finally beating Strom Chamberlain eighteen seconds into the third period. However, it wasn't enough, and the Outlaws hung out for a thrilling 2-1 victory.

This series is hanging on a razor's edge and I would absolutely not be surprised if it was 2-2 heading back to Anaheim after these two games at Pacific Coliseum, but the X-factor probably has to be Vancouver's power play. The Whalers have been awful with the man advantage, going 0 for 11 in two games. If they can't take advantage of those opportunities, they'll be very hard-pressed to put the puck in the back of the net. Otherwise, it's going to be a battle of which goalie - White Goodman or Strom Chamberlain - blinks first.