09-23-2020, 03:26 PMhonkerrs Wrote: Maybe first pass through when this is implemented you have to have both GM and Player sign off on the swap to happen. So if a GM really views the goalie as essential it wouldn't screw their vision. Honestly anything allowing me to swap I'm gonna basically be down for because I see no upside to myself sticking to a goalie at the moment other than I just spent time building him so might as well keep going for "fun".
Having GM and player approval could be the way to go. @Zoone16 any thoughts?
It's not a bad idea. But also look at it in reverse, what if the person just doesn't want to play goalie anymore because it's just not their thing. What if their GM refuses for them to change position for who knows what reason. At the end of the day, you want user retention in the league. Either solution can be implemented, but the main goal has to be user engagement & retention through both leagues. I can also assure you that most of the current crop of goalie will not recreate as goalies in the future. It honestly feels like you do not have any input in the success of your team. That was a limitation in sths. It's a limitation in FHM. We might as well have 1200 TPE goalie bots for every team and have people only play skaters. (ok maybe exaggerating but that's what it feels like).
09-23-2020, 03:41 PM(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020, 03:41 PM by DeletedAtUserRequest.)
The amount of games we play each seasons eventually going to go up, we can alleviate a goalie jam by soft or hard forcing teams to play there backups a bigger pct. of games.
09-23-2020, 02:43 PMcharlieconway Wrote: Mandate at least 12 games a season for backups. Also, consider having them on their own contract tier system, so we don't get to the twisted (and IMO inevitable) point where teams will be hurt for having a high TPE starter.
We should definitely have something prepared for a potential goalie logjam but let's not get too aheard of ourselves either. Right now this concerns exactly one player who has done a lot to alienate various people around the league in the past. I would argue that there would absolutely be room to fit him insomewhere, it's the willingness to make room for him that is missing around the league. And while I don't really have any issues with him personally I think it's fine that this situation exists, that there actually are consequences for once regarding bad personal conduct. It's somewhat unfair that it hits one guy now when so many people have gotten away with similar or worse stuff in the past, but I for one don't think we need to overhaul a huge part of the league because of one insular case.
I quoted charlieconway because I think his suggestions are the ones that would actually do the most to fix potential problem without going for a complete overhaul. The OP brought up some good points too as did fisherr but honestly, I don't think the situation is as bad as a lot of people make it sound right now. It's not that unusual that there are more Goalies in the pipeline somewhere than we will eventually have room for, the same is true for Skaters after all but during their journey through juniors we are bound to lose some people. We couldn't fit in all those Skaters either if they all stayec active. But it's good that we actually have more people in juniors now than we will need later at the SHL level, it's a reserve, a buffer that the league needs to not run into shortages.
When looking at honkerss list I don't quite draw the same conclusion as him, because this is what I see:
Teams that have exactly one active goalie (who could, as good as he is, retire or go inactive or ask for a trade at any second, leaving them goalieless):
8/18
BAP
NEW
MIN
TEX
WPG
ATL
NOLA
SEA
Teams in a good spot, with one goalie and one other in the pipeline:
6/18
TOR
LAP
MAN
CGY
HAM
TBB
Teams with an actual logjam (3 or more):
4/18
BUF
SFP
EDM
CHI
This isn't a league-wide logjam.
Almost half the league only has one goalie and only four teams have what could be described as a surplus, but even some of them still have time to marinate some of their goalies in juniors. It could well be that those numbers will change soon with more people coming from juniors but so far this hasn't happened. I would argue that the raw numbers aren't the problem here and that stuff like a goalie-to-skater change isn't really necessary. Although, while I don't like it from an immersion standpoint, it also doesn't really hurt anyone so I probably wouldn't be completely against it either.
The real issue here is the other point that honkerss touched upon, that goalies do not matter (enough) in FHM. This is what we need to take a look at, be it through changes to the goalie update scale or other measures. Also I am a huge proponent of making the backup position or 1A/1B splits more viable, which could be achieved by charlies suggestion of a separate goalie cap and more mandatory back-up games.
The main issue which you are not addressing is that no one wants to be a backup. That in itself creates a positional logjam. And no goalie will want to be a goalie if they're playing 25 games a season. It's frankly not worth the tpe & time & shl money investment.
Side note: if you think i'm going inactive on BAP you're smoking some good stuff.
09-23-2020, 03:42 PM(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020, 03:45 PM by honkerrs.)
09-23-2020, 03:34 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: The real issue here is the other point that honkerss touched upon, that goalies do not matter (enough) in FHM. This is what we need to take a look at, be it through changes to the goalie update scale or other measures. Also I am a huge proponent of making the backup position or 1A/1B splits more viable, which could be achieved by charlies suggestion of a separate goalie cap and more mandatory back-up games.
Appreciate the write up RED but thinking we can fix goalies in FHM isn't the solution because they only have so many stats and it doesn't matter much anyways. My main argument for the logjam, and why I set the tiers of teams as I did, is that there will be more than enough 800-1200 TPE goalies to go around for any team to pick up whether they go IA or whatever happens. I've done FHM tests where even in extreme cases 2k TPE goalies on JUNIOR teams have marginal effects so fixing the scale won't help unfortunately. Smart teams aren't going to care what your TPE is past the 1000 range and that is honestly being pretty generous to stay positive when I made that assumption
09-23-2020, 02:52 PMjfisherr Wrote: Thank you for doing what I was too lazy to and putting this situation into words. I think HO should allow a one time position swap for goalies to become skaters.
This would likely increase player retention, as first-gens that create as goalies would actually have a pathway to future playing time besides getting 6-10 games as a backup every season. This would also help alleviate the lack of depth we have at certain positions (defencemen currently) that are resulting in a number of teams fielding sub-500 TPE IA defencemen.
HO should also be doing a better job at advertising which positions are actually needed. Many first time creates don’t understand that the goalie market is already flush with elite talent.
However, I do see some pushback in this suggestion from GMs and HO. I can see GMs, both SHL and SMJHL complaining about allowing free position swaps as it could screw up their roster in the short term and long term. Allowing these position swaps should thus only occur during the offseason so teams can plan around this. Additionally, there could be some possibilities that a user creates as a goalie in order to tank his draft stock, allowing a team to get additional prospects, knowing that this user is going to position swap from goalie in the future. A rule change must then account for the following;
1. Goalie saturation
2. Team planning
3. Potential abuse.
To counter these, at the present I think HO should implement something like allow any current goalies a free one time position switch. This would likely immediately alleviate the current goalie logjam.
Moving forward however, all future created goalies should only be allowed to position switch in the time between the end of their rookie season, and the time they get drafted into the SHL. This allows both SMJHL and SHL GMs to plan for the prospect’s position switch, and would prevent any abuse of the system through draft stock manipulation.
Ideally in conjunction with these rules, HO would then implement a “Position Need Tracker” of sorts, allowing first-gens and recreates to accurately assess which positions are truly needed, allowing these new users to make informed decisions when making their player.
it seems like our primary concern here is with new players feeling like they've made the wrong decision, particularly with goaltender. Would it make sense to allow all new creates a free position swap within the first X seasons (maybe 3 or 5)?
There are some numbers that may help us speak to this more accurately, and also because I think there is more than one issue at play here
There are 325 Forwards, 192 Defensemen, and 67 Goaltenders. What percentage of these players are new or inactive is unknown to me, but very relevant. That's 584 Players.
That means 55.7% of players are forwards, 32.9% are defensemen, and 11.4% are goaltenders.
Each team has 6 Forward spots, 6 defense spots, and 2 goaltending slots. Really, its 1 goaltending slot, due to the nature of goaltending.
The breakdown for this is 46.15% forwards, 46.15% defense, 7.7% goaltenders
So we have more than just a goaltending issue, we technically have an issue with too many forwards as well.
This speaks to your request for a positional need tracker as well as a free position swap early in the career.
Of course, we could always open up the 4th line, which changes some of the distributions
09-23-2020, 04:07 PM(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020, 04:23 PM by RomanesEuntDomus.)
09-23-2020, 03:42 PMZoone16 Wrote: The main issue which you are not addressing is that no one wants to be a backup. That in itself creates a positional logjam. And no goalie will want to be a goalie if they're playing 25 games a season. It's frankly not worth the tpe & time & shl money investment.
Side note: if you think i'm going inactive on BAP you're smoking some good stuff.
Well right now barely anyone has to be a back-up because there is no logjam.
And with the suggestions I quoted plus maybe some other stuff we could make the back-up position a lot more viable, creating actual battles for spots between the posts within teams. This could gives us a lot more situations like one where a young player enters the squad at 700 TPE, playing the minimum number of back-up games, but then he keeps developing and demanding more and more games if the GM doesn't want him to go to FA and try to get a starter spot elsewhere. At the same time it would give the starter some extra motivation to keep pushing because he sure as hell doesn't want to give up any of his starts. This could lead to a bunch of interesting player and roster management decisions. Do you go for two goalies who battle it out, risking some drama but also potentially getting two very valuable assets out of it and giving you the chance to play the hot hand in the playoffs, or do you stick to one starter, avoid the drama but take greater risks in terms of cold streaks and inactivity/leaving? Do younger goalies prefer to be patient and wait it out as a back-up at their team or try to jump shit early on to prove themselves as a starter elsewhere, maybe on a weaker team? There's a bunch of stuff like that that we could see open up with changes to the system.
09-23-2020, 03:42 PMhonkerrs Wrote:
09-23-2020, 03:34 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: The real issue here is the other point that honkerss touched upon, that goalies do not matter (enough) in FHM. This is what we need to take a look at, be it through changes to the goalie update scale or other measures. Also I am a huge proponent of making the backup position or 1A/1B splits more viable, which could be achieved by charlies suggestion of a separate goalie cap and more mandatory back-up games.
Appreciate the write up RED but thinking we can fix goalies in FHM isn't the solution because they only have so many stats and it doesn't matter much anyways. My main argument for the logjam, and why I set the tiers of teams as I did, is that there will be more than enough 800-1200 TPE goalies to go around for any team to pick up whether they go IA or whatever happens. I've done FHM tests where even in extreme cases 2k TPE goalies on JUNIOR teams have marginal effects so fixing the scale won't help unfortunately. Smart teams aren't going to care what your TPE is past the 1000 range and that is honestly being pretty generous to stay positive when I made that assumption
Thanks for doing the research on this, if this is the case then I absolutely agree that we need to look into this and consider changes. It's just different from the "logjam" argument that has kinda started this discussion and that a lot of people are still making.
I for one think that this could still be absolutely solveable within our current system, be it through the update scale or other measures. Goalies already operate on a separate (and easier) update scale, there is no reason we couldn't work on a fix through that scale. If the difference between lower TPE and higher TPE goalies isn't big enough, wouldn't it be a very simple solution to make the scale harsher? If 1000 TPE goalies are too strong compared to 1500-2000 TPE goalies, couldn't we fix that with a scale that makes it a bit harder to actually be an above-average SHL goaltender than seems to be the case nowadays?
09-23-2020, 02:52 PMjfisherr Wrote: Thank you for doing what I was too lazy to and putting this situation into words. I think HO should allow a one time position swap for goalies to become skaters.
This would likely increase player retention, as first-gens that create as goalies would actually have a pathway to future playing time besides getting 6-10 games as a backup every season. This would also help alleviate the lack of depth we have at certain positions (defencemen currently) that are resulting in a number of teams fielding sub-500 TPE IA defencemen.
HO should also be doing a better job at advertising which positions are actually needed. Many first time creates don’t understand that the goalie market is already flush with elite talent.
However, I do see some pushback in this suggestion from GMs and HO. I can see GMs, both SHL and SMJHL complaining about allowing free position swaps as it could screw up their roster in the short term and long term. Allowing these position swaps should thus only occur during the offseason so teams can plan around this. Additionally, there could be some possibilities that a user creates as a goalie in order to tank his draft stock, allowing a team to get additional prospects, knowing that this user is going to position swap from goalie in the future. A rule change must then account for the following;
1. Goalie saturation
2. Team planning
3. Potential abuse.
To counter these, at the present I think HO should implement something like allow any current goalies a free one time position switch. This would likely immediately alleviate the current goalie logjam.
Moving forward however, all future created goalies should only be allowed to position switch in the time between the end of their rookie season, and the time they get drafted into the SHL. This allows both SMJHL and SHL GMs to plan for the prospect’s position switch, and would prevent any abuse of the system through draft stock manipulation.
Ideally in conjunction with these rules, HO would then implement a “Position Need Tracker” of sorts, allowing first-gens and recreates to accurately assess which positions are truly needed, allowing these new users to make informed decisions when making their player.
it seems like our primary concern here is with new players feeling like they've made the wrong decision, particularly with goaltender. Would it make sense to allow all new creates a free position swap within the first X seasons (maybe 3 or 5)?
There are some numbers that may help us speak to this more accurately, and also because I think there is more than one issue at play here
There are 325 Forwards, 192 Defensemen, and 67 Goaltenders. What percentage of these players are new or inactive is unknown to me, but very relevant. That's 584 Players.
That means 55.7% of players are forwards, 32.9% are defensemen, and 11.4% are goaltenders.
Each team has 6 Forward spots, 6 defense spots, and 2 goaltending slots. Really, its 1 goaltending slot, due to the nature of goaltending.
The breakdown for this is 46.15% forwards, 46.15% defense, 7.7% goaltenders
So we have more than just a goaltending issue, we technically have an issue with too many forwards as well.
This speaks to your request for a positional need tracker as well as a free position swap early in the career.
Of course, we could always open up the 4th line, which changes some of the distributions
Nice, all great beginning statistics - thanks for that. But I think the data would be even worse if you assume that, lets be generous and positive, 1k tpe is "SHL impact ready" for goalies but for forwards / dmen the "SHL Impact Ready" value is probably around 1400-1500 TPE. Without having the data myself, I'd assume that there is a bigger need for 1400-1500 skaters than a goalie with marginal upside to being 1k vs 500 tpe lol. Even with only 3 lines.
Also maybe someone who isn't earning that well but is still an active LR decides "wow goalie seems perfect for me since i can't get to 1400 tpe" and they could swap to goalie. Would be nice imo
09-23-2020, 02:28 PMefiug Wrote: we should have a seperate european league filled with fake players that only goalies can play for. then we can add like 8 more starting spots and everyone is happy. crazy nobody else has thought of this yet.
Time to go get the Thun Lakers jersey out of the wardrobe, I guess.
Player Page - Update Page
Former Players: Yoshimitsu McCloud (LW, #64) - Won a Four Star Cup once, knew ninjutsu, picture editors hated him, never tried free agency
Anton Harrier (LW, #90) - Won WJC gold, liked skateboarding a lot, went to the finals with Manhattan, kept his seat glued in LR
09-23-2020, 08:17 PM(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020, 08:19 PM by KlusteR.)
TL;DR - Fix the TPE scale for goalies. It's way too easy to create a starting goalie, and that naturally created the logjam we're seeing right now.
Thanks @honkerrs for opening this can of worms. It's a subject I've been wanting to approach for a bit, but was too... stubborn in trying to find arguments against this theory (since I'm a big offender, being the hyper-active GM goalie you show in the forefront of your article ). But you have the right of it. There's a huge logjam at goalie incoming, and it's almost already upon us.
While allowing a position switch is a good suggestion, one that will help rookies that could feel the "backup" tag coming for them, I'd say that we may need to start taking a look at the goalie TPE scale. The reason why 1k-1.2k is considered the "sweet spot" to get to a "starting job" level as a goalie, is that goalies don't need the amount of TPE to flesh out their build, as opposed to the "standard" a skater has to aim for to be efficient in their roles.
We only have two "physicals" to worry about (as opposed to six... well, five for skaters), and 11 goalie attributes (as opposed to 17 possible attributes for skaters.)
Here's the kicker. That means that a goalie can theoretically have 15s everywhere in his attributes (which would put them at around a Cam Talbot-level starter, so weak, but still passable enough on a good team) with 806 TPE. It's laughably easy to achieve. Now, keep in mind some attributes are fairly useless, yet need to be somewhat kept up with the rest... Take out a few points here, put them there... Yep. You're getting very close to a .910 Sv% goalie on a good team with those 800 TPE, and around .900 Sv% goalie on a mediocre to bad team.
Louder for those in the back - 800 TPE, which is what is needed to build a capable 3rd line winger that can almost play on the 2nd line but not quite, is enough to build a starter in the SHL.
We cannot continue to keep the same updating scale for goalie - and I say that as a max earning, "possibly leaving according to RED even though I was named as a GM a month ago" goalie that is/was/will be planning to fight regression.
For what it's worth, I also did some testing on my end, and while the results were not as dramatic as honkerss seems to want us to believe (goalie incidence is real, but you need the right conditions for it, and right now, we absolutely don't have those conditions in place), there is also no real argument for a platoon, or a 1A/1B situation, in the SHL. There simply isn't. Goalie Stamina is a joke - as long as you have a 15, congrats, you're a starter. Builds are also fairly pre-determined - either you focus on your shot-stopping attributes, or you go for a Positioning/Recovery/Reflexes build. And even that stops being a real choice around 1.5k TPE, where you can have everything at 17 - which gets you closer to a Braeden Holtby type, to keep the NHL comparison alive. I mean, sure, you could be a Carey Price at 2k TPE... But tell me - how far are the Habs from winning with that D core?
...And there we have it. The crux of the issue. As good as a goalie is, when they have to stop 2 McDavids-ish, 2 Draisaitls-ish and 2 Pavelskis-ish, backed up by 2 Hedman-ish and 2 OEL-ish level defense partners, day in and day out (shoutout to you, Carpy, my Astral Twin, my guiding light, too pure for this league, too precious, Great Lakes don't deserve you) - their impact on sim results become purely anecdotal. And when a goalie actually has a good season under duress, since their conference is actually competitive in the middle-ground as opposed to the one where the "vouched for" goalies play, because their own team does not have said monsters on their first two lines... they get told that the numbers are skewed for them, and that we should simply disregard their season (yes, I'm still a bit salty about getting no recognition for the season I had in Minnesota, considering the TPE level of the rotting corpse of a D I had to carry last season - with no offense to Segi, my rock, my salvation - because Wins and GAA seem to be sacrosanct relics for some, and what the hell is a GSAA anyway?)
But the real defining factor behind goalie performance is team caliber. How good is your D corps at sheltering you, may it be by blocking shots, forcing turnovers, or just being general puck-retention monsters? Are your forwards able to play minimally well defensively? How's your surrounding system, and does it play to the skaters' strengths? The goalies themselves have no real impact on the sim - team tactics are built with the expectation that 800 TPE goalies should be more than enough. This gives no incentive to really push past that point, or even past the 1.2k point where your build stabilizes, apart from personal fantasies of longevity.
So we're stuck at a crossroads, then. Either we re-adjust the scale, and this impacts all current goalies, positively or negatively, or we simply let the league have the same 18 goalies for the foreseeable future. Because no amount of allowing a position switch for a goalie is going to fix that much, MUCH deeper problem we have at the SHL level. The goalies in the J are an entirely other subject of conversation.
All this talk about no goalie wanting to be a backup and that is Blunt Man's plan. The old Alex Moran. But for real I am sitting here knowing he will probably never be a teams #1 in his SHL career.
09-23-2020, 03:06 PMGeekusoid Wrote: @honkerrs is right on the money with this one.
I don't imagine this will be the last time we see this either. For a while, there was an absolute need for goalies, so goalies were created. Now, since they're all mostly active, we have a logjam...a pretty significant one too.
I support these ideas. #chokerlain4defense
You were a very good Crease Clearer in the Cookie Classic, as I recall.
09-23-2020, 10:06 PM(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020, 10:36 PM by honkerrs.)
09-23-2020, 08:17 PMKlusteR Wrote: TL;DR - Fix the TPE scale for goalies. It's way too easy to create a starting goalie, and that naturally created the logjam we're seeing right now.
Really appreciate you taking the time to write all that and read the article. Let's just say that I agree with "fix goalie TPE scale crowd". I think the biggest rebuttal to that is that back up goalieing isn't fun for anyone. Maybe the rare chance of a user being semi active and just likes to chill in the LR. But after my breakdown I realized that the goalies in this league are STACKED with great users in this league. It would be unfair to these users in my opinion to have to share playing time. And then on top of that , the few teams that might not have to share playing time, well their goalie gets the best chance at awards since they will get the most wins. The SHL will never have two backup goalies that are active on every team so increasing the amount of back up games won't do anything either imo (you didn't say that but many others have)
So getting back to me still thinking a tpe scale wouldn't change anything. The 1k TPE threshold thing was just me being as positive as possible to be honest. I've heard multiple GMs tell me that they'd be perfectly comfortable with a 500 TPE or less goalie and it would only result in them losing maybe one or two extra games in the regular season. Something as dramatic as that won't be solved with a TPE scale fix imo. "Ok honkerrs well let's just make the scale so harsh that 1500 tpe now equates to a 500 tpe goalie". Well banking tpe forever to just move a stat from 14->15 sounds miserable and I'd probably recreate on the spot..
I 100% agree with you though that I heard when FHM came out that "oh man, goalie tandems are gonna be the new meta". But in reality now after a few seasons, stamina for goalies is a major joke. Hit the nail on the head there
I can see the argument maybe that making a skater tpe adjustment would maybe make goalies better. But still, there is an overabundance of goalies right now that are great users so that wouldn't solve the logjam of funness limits for these users because of being stuck on back ups
Feel free to ping me any time on discord at honkerrs#9675 if you want to see a goalie test I ran. I've showed many people this already but just didn't want to make a massive article about it because it would depress some people even more.
09-23-2020, 10:20 PM(This post was last modified: 09-23-2020, 10:31 PM by spooked.)
Goalies have 13 total skills to spend TPE on, Skaters have 23. Skaters need 1.5x the amount of TPE to get to a "perfect" build, making goalies better than their TPE would make you think by quite a bit. It also makes their cap hits at high levels much less representative of their actual performance. To fix this for goalies to be appropriately contracted/updated you would probably need to calculate some reasonable adjustment for goalie update scale and contract scale. Leaving it as is is kinda weird imo.
Would make goalies worse in the 800-1300 TPE range than currently (and overall TBH except at the very top probably since the scale is already quite high anyways) and force some goalies out of their position earlier in their regression.
Zoone16![[Image: Zoone16.gif]](http://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/Zoone16.gif)
![[Image: 9QVaMRC.png]](http://i.imgur.com/9QVaMRC.png)
![[Image: canybyK.png]](http://i.imgur.com/canybyK.png)
![[Image: sXDU6JX.png]](https://i.imgur.com/sXDU6JX.png)
![[Image: OnGNB1G.gif]](https://i.imgur.com/OnGNB1G.gif)
![[Image: cgv4vCv.png]](http://i.imgur.com/cgv4vCv.png)
|![[Image: 95lCCDx.png]](http://i.imgur.com/95lCCDx.png)
|![[Image: KgwtJeY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/KgwtJeY.png)
|
|
![[Image: honkerrs.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/honkerrs.gif)
![[Image: OPTIMIZED.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/268946899795443729/833026899462586428/OPTIMIZED.png)
![[Image: d8gycCg.png]](https://i.imgur.com/d8gycCg.png)
). But you have the right of it. There's a huge logjam at goalie incoming, and it's almost already upon us.![[Image: mTgAyCs.png]](https://i.imgur.com/mTgAyCs.png)
![[Image: premierbromanov.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/premierbromanov.gif)
![[Image: EePsAwN.png]](https://i.imgur.com/EePsAwN.png)
![[Image: eaex9S1.png]](https://i.imgur.com/eaex9S1.png)
![[Image: vo5yF0X.png]](https://i.imgur.com/vo5yF0X.png)
![[Image: KlusteR.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/KlusteR.gif)
![[Image: e0LuHwa.png]](https://i.imgur.com/e0LuHwa.png)
![[Image: olivercastillon.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/olivercastillon.gif)
