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Segi's SMJHL Playoff Primer - Round 1
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Because this series enjoyed some popularity last season, I'm gonna do it again. Let's have a look at the teams which are participating in the first play off round of the S46 SMJHL play offs:

7. raiders Halifax Raiders - Different to last season, the Raiders had a really strong start to the season, before they caught an 11 game long losing streak, which put them right back towards the bottom of the standings. They ended their season on a 3 game losing streak but actually won 4 of their last 10 games. Overall, the team from Halifax put up a 23-21-6 record which put them only 1 point short of getting a first round bye. Of the four teams in this first round, the Raiders have the strongest offense - they scored 135 goals in their 50 regular season games.

8. Whalers Vancouver Whalers - Similar to the Raiders, the Whalers started strong into the season, with 7 wins out of their first 10 games. They never had a huge slump, but they also never really had big winning streaks. Out of their last ten games, the Whalers won 5. Their 23-21-6 record is identical to the one of the Raiders, but because the Raiders got more points out of the games against each other, the Whalers end the season on 8th, even though they also came just 1 point short of the first round bye. Interestingly, the Whalers have the 2 best scorers as well as the 2nd best goalie of the season on their roster and with 131 goals against, they put up the best defense of any first round team. 

9. Falcons Detroit Falcons - The Falcons have lost a lot of players to SHL call ups, so it's not a big surprise that they had a difficult season. However they still did respectably and finished on a 22-24-4 record, which put them 3 points behind the Raiders and Whalers and with that, home game advantage in the first round. They also won 5 out of their last 10 games and even won the last two against teams that finished in the top 3. The Falcons had a remarkably unremarkable season, they aren't the best or worst team in any metric, which was in this very close league only good for second to last.

10. Raptors Colorado Raptors - The Raptors were the surprise team of last season's play offs. This time around they start from an even worse place. The Raptors ended the season as far behind the Falcons as the Falcons were to get the first round bye. They won 4 out of their last 10 games but lost all of the last 3. Overall they put up an 18-26-6 record and have both the worst offense and defense of all the first round teams. Their goal differential of -24 is by far the worst in the league.



So let's have a look at the two series and how the teams performed against each other in the regular season:

Halifax Raiders raiders vs Raptors Colorado Raptors

Individual games: All of the games between the two teams were in the last part of the regular season, so we can have a pretty good idea of how the teams perform against each other. The points total out of those games is 7:5 in favor of the Raiders and the goal total 16:13 in favor of the same team. However, all the games were fairly close and the first 4 out of those 5 games ended with a home team loss. Together with the facts that the Raptors are a play off team and the Raiders seem to be unable to compete no matter how good their roster looks, this series might be closer than the standings suggest.
My prediction: Halifax wins the series in 7.




Vancouver Whalers Whalers vs Falcons Detroit Falcons

Individual games: Different to the other series, the games between the Whalers and the Falcons were all played early in the season. The Whalers won 10 points out of their games against the Falcons, while the Detroit team only managed to get 4. The goal total is 20:14 in favor of the Whalers as well. Even though the Whalers and the Falcons ended the season much closer to each other than the Raiders and the Raptors did, this series seems much clearer.
My prediction: Vancouver wins the series in 5.


Code:
1002 words plus research

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Segi's SMJHL Playoff Primer - Round 1 - by Segi - 03-25-2019, 09:15 AM



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