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This is a tough one. To decide on this i looked again at Gordie's Strength Meter. Hamilton is 10th on the list with a rating of 10272 and Winnipeg is 8th with a rating of 10357. Based on that you would think Hamilton is a bigger surprise, however if we look closer at who each team played so far than it becomes less obvious. Hamilton played 15 games out of 23 against weaker teams on the strength meter, whereas Winnipeg played 13 games against weaker opponents. Also Winnipeg already played 8 games against the top 3 (Buffalo, New Orleans, Edmonton), compared to Hamilton who played 5 times against those teams. I would say this is a tie.