01-10-2020, 11:50 AMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: 3. 50 > 15

Now all the talk about data and test sims is good and well, but how about the actual results of this season? After all, Hamilton seems to be well on its way to win the Cup in sweeping fashion, does that not prove how well their exploit is working? Well, no it doesn’t. A dozen or so playoff games don’t prove anything from a statistical standpoint. There are so many factors that could be at work here. We all know how random STHS can be, teams go on Cinderella runs or unexpectedly falter in the playoffs all the time and in such a small sample of games, basically everything can happen. Even if Hamilton ends up sweeping the finals, that doesn’t prove anything. Be prepared for me to talk about sample size again and again over the course of this article, as it is basically my main argument (and the only one I really need) about people who are condemning Hamilton based on how the playoffs are going.

The only bigger sample we have at 50 games is the regular season, which is still subject to a lot of randomness, but is a better data base than the 15 or so games they had in the playoffs. And during that regular season, Hamilton did well but they didn’t break the league. Hell they didn’t even finish first in the standings but finished nine points behind the first-placed team and two points behind the team they are now facing in the finals. Is this exploit some weird kind of magic that only works in the playoffs but not the regular season? I’d say that’s highly doubtful.

This is absolutely true, and I'm glad people are talking about sample size - please keep stressing this, I'll be right there with you. Claiming that 15 games provides proof of a broken system is asinine. Unfortunately for Steelhawks supporters, tests on seasons of a much larger sample size (600 games) prove the same point. I ran loooottttsssss of those 600-game season tests this season and Hamilton cruised to the top of the East every single time (literally every one). 15 games isn't proof that the tactic works, and 50 games isn't proof that the tactic works, but 40x600 is stronger evidence. Feel free to use that as evidence in your "against" column if you wind up writing it  Great stuff RED!