It is that time of the season again, the time where I need some sweet sweet money and I remember why I am not a graphics guy. So with that said, it is time to do a relatively short recap of the Edmonton Blizzard’s form to this point in the season. With Season 52 just over half way over, Edmonton finds itself trailing the San Francisco Pride, one point from first place in the Western Conference. While Season 52 saw Edmonton jump out to an early conference lead, the Blizzard have had a rough go as of late, losing 6 of their last 10 games. Even with this relative slump at the mid season mark, Edmonton remains in the driver’s seat for controlling their own destiny and still boasts one of the league’s premier defenses, leading the league with the fewest goals allowed at this point in the season. If offensive production can slightly improve and the defense can continue to remain stalwart, this Edmonton team has the potential to find itself back in the finals competing for the Four Star Cup.

While the offensive contribution to this point in the season has been a bit below the norm, the talented Edmonton forwards are continuing to do enough to win and I would expect to see offensive production increase in the latter half of the season as the Blizzard’s off season conditioning comes to the fore. While Edmonton’s offense currently sits tied for 9th in the league in goals for with 87, the remains a lot of talent amongst the forwards that have yet to hit their stride this season. Wingers James Truong and Barrett Blackwood have had an especially tough go of it, as of late, with uncharacteristically low production. Truong, a burgeoning talent in the Blizzard locker room, currently has 7 goals and 6 assists with a -2 +/- rating through 29 games while playing on the second line. Similarly, Blackwood, a rookie last season, was expected to have a breakout year on the third line but, as of yet, that breakout has yet to come to fruition. Through 29 games Blackwood has tallied 7 goals and 5 assists and sports a +3 +/- rating. While generally not poor performers, both Truong and Blackwood were expected to break out this season and have yet to do so. Another player having a relatively poor performance, especially considering last season’s MVP caliber one, is Blizzard star Tony Pepperoni. Last season, Pepperoni led all centers in the league with 66 points on 25 goals and 41 assists while also amassing a bone jarring 184 hits. This season has unfortunately been a different tale, however, as Pepperoni has found it hard to get an offensive rhythm going, especially with him already having accrued 45 penalty minutes. This marked uptick in penalties has to be concerning to the Blizzard coaching staff as Pepperoni, clearly one of the best players in the league, had 46 penalty minutes all of last season and is not getting the ice time necessary to turn his production around. When Pepperoni does see the ice, he is still delivering bone crushing hit, amassing 125 hits already, but the rest of his offensive production has lagged behind his typical pace, having scored only 10 goals with 14 assists to go along. Another contributing factor to the lack of goal production has been the significant drop in offensive production from the defensemen on the squad. Last season, three defenseman from the top four tallied 35 or more points with Tor Tuck leading the way with 60 points, good for second on the team overall. This season a defenseman is again second on the team in scoring, however this season it is Brady McIntyre who has tallied 4 goals and 19 assists while also adding 93 hits which is also good for second on the squad behind Pepperoni. The glaring difference for defenseman scoring this season is that while 3 defenders tallied 35 or more points last season, this season on McIntyre is on pace to break that mark, with FR Finn-Rhys, Jordan Von Matt and Karlstrasse Scholz all trending to end the season accruing point totals in the mid to late 20s. Unsurprisingly, Tor Tuck’s offensive production has taken a significant hit this season with his move to the second line and being paired with the young but still raw Finn-Rhys. Whereas Tuck ended last season leading all defensemen in the league with 11 goals and 49 assists, to date the future Hall of Famer has only 2 goals to go along with 13 assists and sports an abysmal 3.77% shooting percentage.

Compounding the offense’s goal scoring woes at the individual level has been the sheer lack of shots taken, especially during even strength play at the team level. While the power play unit has been exceptional, ranking fourth in the league at 26.09%, Edmonton’s shooters rank 12th in total shots for, averaging a paltry 30.83 shots per game. So striking is the difference in goal scoring between even strength and the power play that more than a quarter of Edmonton’s goals this season have been on the power play (27% to be exact with 24 out of 87 goals coming on the power play). While I have not done the math for every other team, it is a safe bet that Edmonton leads or near the top of the league in the ratio of goals scored on the power play vice even strength. This lack of production during even strength is disconcerting to say the least and for a team that had one of the league’s best offenses last season, the drop off in production from last season to this season has been jaw dropping.

While the tone of this article may make the situation in Edmonton seem dire, and that it may seem that Edmonton’s offense is in the doldrums of production, there actually is a lot of hope, and talent, remaining and things could turn around in an instant for this beleaguered corps of forwards. Two players that are particularly having exceptional seasons are Hercules Rockefeller and Boruvka Banananak. Rockefeller, who had 32 points last season, already has tallied 10 goals and 11 assists and is well on pace to exceed his performance last season while maintaining his slot on the first line. Another player having an exception season is Banananak, a right winger on the second line who accrued 28 points last season. Almost 60% of the way through this season, Banananak has already tallied 20 points on 10 goals and 10 assists and is well on pace to exceed his performance last season. Add in the steady production of Julio Tokolosh who currently has 10 goals and 12 assists and is third on the team in scoring.

Conversely, whatever production the offense has lacked, the defense has to this point been well above par having given up only 77 goals against which leads the league. Much of this defensive prowess can be attributed to the stellar play of goalies Tommy Tuck and Emiko Spector who have combined to allow only 2.66 goals against average. While both goalies have split time relatively evenly to this point in the season, Tommy Tuck still holds the reigns as the team’s best goalie. Sporting an 11-3 record with a 93% save percentage and 2.13 goals against, Tuck could be having a league-record setting year if not for the sharing of goal tending duties. Or, it may be because of the sharing of goal tending duties that Tuck has been able to put up such gaudy stats as Edmonton looks to preserve his legs for later in the season and during a playoff push. Spector, on the other hand, has played solidly this season, although her record does not clearly convey that. Holding a 6-8-1 record and having an 89.6% save percentage and 3.12 goals against average, Spector clearly has room to mature and grow as the Blizzard’s goalie of the future and it is expected that while she has taken her lumps early the consistent playing time she is seeing now will pay dividends in season’s to come as she progresses and assumes a larger role as the franchise’s goalie of the future.

Adding to the Blizzard’s defensive performance this season has been the quality of the penalty kill unit. While Edmonton takes a significant amount of penalties (250 penalty minutes to date – tied for fourth in the league for most penalty minutes), the penalty kill has been top notch and has alleviated most of the opponent’s offensive chances. Indeed, the penalty kill currently leads the league with an 86.05% penalty kill rate, only giving up 12 goals this season. Also aiding the defense of the Blizzard has been the incredibly low shot totals per game the team is giving up. What the forwards currently lack in scoring prowess they more than make up for in forechecking ability and they are a significant reason that the team has given up, on average, 30.45 shots per game.

While nothing is set in stone as of yet, clearly Edmonton has all the pieces available to find its way back to the playoffs, and clearly the team has the talent to go far and potentially back to the finals. While so far the formula of a stalwart defense combined with an offense that does just enough has worked, Edmonton will look to capitalize on their typical late season form and improve their scoring opportunities while maintaining their rigid defense. With as much talent as there is on this roster, and with a world class coaching staff, it is only a matter of time until Edmonton finds its rhythm offensively and becomes a more well rounded and potent team.