03-30-2020, 05:07 PMTommySalami Wrote:

03-30-2020, 05:00 PMjfisherr Wrote: Okay, I’ll bite. Sure, it’s possible. Odds the wolves skip a kill night are low though. The odds he blocked the alpha were minuscule, much lower than the odds a wolf kills an important role like seer, lookout, or doctor. the wolves skipping a kill night thus seems like a horrible play, as hitting the doctor or seer last night would’ve pretty much guaranteed the wolves the win. Imagine how much of a mess the villagers would be in right now if the wolves hit muted last night? All in all, it doesn’t make sense for the wolves to skip, although I appreciate you continuing to play and defend yourself. If I’m proven wrong so be it, but the odds are heavily against you here, and I’ll take the favourable odds every day of the week.

Wolves just need to bet that Durden doesn't hit the Alpha, 1 in 12 chance pretty much. Then they keep the "Alpha" hostage leaving 1 more wolf out there than expected.

If Durden hits on a wolf they just kill the next time the alpha should be blocked to show that he was wrong and put this whole thing into chaos. It's a great play for the wolves imo.

Not a 1 in 12 chance, more like a 1 in 5.
And still, the wolves had a better chance of killing a villager with a useful role.