Expansion Draft Analysis:

I have seen a couple of mock expansions. Honestly, a few of them were pretty low effort; more recently, there have been some better ones (Hockey Talk Tonight, Canes2112, Rich and Luke). We can speculate all day on which players will be picked, however we must analyze what the GM’s are thinking. To be honest, I’m certain both Acsolap and Dankoa are out to build the best team they can. With the talent available, it is difficult to suggest that these expansion teams will be able to REALLY compete: Perhaps one or both expansion teams have the potential to make the playoffs, but it is unlikely that they would be able to make a run.

I’ve done an in-depth analysis of the BEST Eastern Conference targets using the Player Analyze and Budget 2.0 tools; These are the players who I think would be smartest to choose in the east. With that being said, I’m totally unaware of Acsolap and Dankoa’s strategies; unsure if they have been speaking with each other. It’s possible that one GM is building for the short term while the other is looking to build a team.

Atlanta Inferno

S50 – Defense
Rintarou Okabe – 1050 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
ByrdeMan


With the promise of more playing minutes, Okabe could be enticed to sign in Montreal or Philadelphia. Okabe is a very active member in Atlanta and even though he slowly will be regressing, he could land on a 2nd or 3rd line defensive role. He is facing some minor regression but could be a solid pick and play an active role in the locker room as a veteran.



S56 - Centre
Josh Dolphin - 744 TPE
Status: 3 MILLION contract; (Expires S61)
d0lph1nb0y


I believe that Dolphin is the best pick on the board for Atlanta. Dolphin may be 39th in his draft class in terms of TPE, but with a change of scenery perhaps he can boost his game and acquire some SHL minutes. Dolphin can be a potentially good mid-earner and a role player for years to come; especially for a team that is focussing on a long term style of team building.

S53: Left Wing
Carlos Brown – 994 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
CB2212

Brown is the last option, but not a “non-option”. If a GM can guarantee Brown some minutes, perhaps they can work something out. Brown has been less active in his training lately, and has plateaued. If his interest could be stimulated again, this is perhaps a long shot but the third best option in Atlanta. This player saw tremendous growth but since march has been sort of MISSING IN ACTION.


Baltimore Platoon

S54: Defense
Adam Friedland – 1099 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Bongo


Friedland has history with Acsolap. As the Hockey Talk Tonight squad said, this pick may make sense. However, between him and Patrick Shepherd, it really comes down to what the Forge/Patriotes NEED: A Defender or a Forward? Both Shepherd and Friedland can realistically grow into 1400-1500 players before reaching regression. Expect these two off the board early.

S54: Centre
Patrick Shepherd - 1138
Status: S60 UFA
Cobbenstein

Shepherd may edge Friedland out on the board due to higher TPE and some forward firepower. I’d have to think that Shepherd is the first off the board in this draft for Baltimore. A loyal guy, it is likely he signs longterm with an expansion franchise.


S45: Right Wing
Nat Emerson – 1639
Status: S60 UFA
Thelastheraclid

Emerson brings grit, presence and skill in his old age. He can be an integral portion of a team looking to compete right away. If these two GM’s have profoundly different methods of drafting I could see Emerson being taken.


Chicago Syndicate

S48: Left Wing
Nick Connolly – 1562 TPE
Status: S61 UFA
Shutdown

Connolly is a no brainer pick for me here – he’s signed through the s60 season and if he can maintain his pace and fight regression he can be a key core player for years to come – something tells me Dankoa will be looking to get Connolly relatively early.

S55: Centre
Lassi Suhonen – 962 TPE
Status: S61 UFA
Teztify

Suhonen is the other no-brainer pick for Chicago. Signed through the S60 season, it is likely Suhonen develops at a rapid pace going forward. With 5-6 optimal seasons ahead of him, I can see a long-term builder grab the young finnish centre.

Hamitlon Steelhawks

S54: Defense
Bork Lazer – 1440 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Frick_Nasty

Bork is a solid pick here – 7th in his draft class, if the GM’s can make a connection with him, he is a no-brainer pick. However, the steelhawks culturally haven’t seen players walk in free agency. Bork plays bottom 6 minutes and that is unlikely to change any time soon. On an expansion franchise, he could be a #1 defender.

S51: Defense
Zlatan Ibrahimovic – 1833 TPE
Status: S61 UFA
Soulja

Absolutely pick this dude – let’s say he doesn’t want to resign or extend; just deal him at the deadline for future considerations; it is likely you could get a great return for an elite Dman not yet facing regression – he is signed through S60, so this is a smart pick for a franchise either looking to rebuild or compete. Expeect ZI off the board SUPER early in this draft. Again, we can only speculate – the GM’s have done their homework, so if he is not picked, they know something we do not.

S52: Forward
Slat Potts – 1136 TPE
Status: ???
Rendiee

I cannot seem to locate Potts contract terms in the budget page – perhaps this is a telltale sign that Hamilton has been speaking with Philadelphia or Montreal on a deal. “Hey, you take Potts rather than Zlatan, and we will give ya a first, how does that sound?”. Regardless, Potts could be a decent depth forward – he may be left in Hamilton with who is on their board though.


Manhattan Rage

S46: Goalie
Peter Larson – 1216 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Tomasnz

Here we have a “Marc Andre Fleury” situation. With Name redacted signing a longterm deal, perhaps Larson has been overshadowed in Manhattan. Past his prime, but still very serviceable and able to bail a team out when the bounces don’t go their way. Larson could bring a veteran presence to the locker room. I’m thinking Philadelphia takes a waiver on Larson here.


S50: Centre
Luca Veccelli – 1093 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Symmetrik

Veccelli is far from a max earner. Not much activity going on around his parts, but perhaps he could fill a depth spot – look for this name towards the very end of the draft.


S42: Left Wing
David Kastrba – 1131 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Hewasajazzman

Sure the Czech winger is retiring but perhaps he can be brought into the locker room to mentor the young guns. Expansion can be about networking as well as acquiring skill. With his son Eddie coming up the pipeline, one of these expansion franchises may have at least reached out to Kastrba. Wouldn’t expect his name to be called, but it would be an interesting move.

New England Wolfpack

S53: Right Wing
Clean Andrei Kostitsyn – 1065 TPE
Status S60 UFA
Clean Andrei Kostitsyn

The twitter comedian may find a home in Montreal or Philadelphia. He has been known to be a big personality. Far from a max earner, but with a chip on his shoulder, he may enjoy a change of scenery. Expect Philadelphia to look his way; or so the rumour mill says. He will have to take a big pay cut though – nobody is paying this guy 5 million anymore.

S56 – Right Wing
Alexis Vermette – 914 TPE
Status: S61 UFA
Treant

For an expansion team with 5-7 season window, Vermette may be a desirable addition in the mid-late rounds. If he’e committed to his growth, this may be a diamond in the rough for these expansion franchises; if the window of opportunity matches up with his growth, this is the NEW pick for you.

S56 – Right Wing
Adiran Ayers – 868 TPE
Status: S61 UFA
Gordieboom

Ayers is basically Vermette with some downside. This pick makes sense if Vermette is off the board, and you value ceiling potential over Kostitsyn’s.

Tampa Bay Barracuda

S55 – Defenseman
Jorgustaad DuBolk – 1198
Status: S61 UFA
MCP_

One of the better defenders from the draft and one of the premier targets in the east; with many seasons ahead of him, we can expect DuBolk to be chosen very early. His contract extends to S61, so again, he could be a deadline deal if plans change. Hopefully he’s receptive of going through the process; which will be hard after going through the same process with Tampa Bay.

S54 – Right Wing
Justin Keahi -1323 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
MyLittleHexx

This could be Keahi’s chance to play first line minutes. He’s a Keahi piece of the Barracuda core, so I’m certain exposing him was not an easy decision for the Tampa staff. Either way they’re losing 2 great players. Justiin Keahi makes big dollars at 5 mil; so this is something GM’s must consider moving forward. He’s not one to take the minimum.

S50 – Right Wing
James Ronlain – 1660 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Rankle

If Dankoa or Acsolap want to go for it now, Ronlain is their pick. It’s difficult to say if Ronlain will be receptive to leaving Tampa Bay given his age, and their big step forward that they are projected to make this season. Not expecting this pick, but it would certainly shake team directory.

Toronto North Stars

S53 – Centre
Taylor Johansson -1427 TPE
Status: S62 UFA
Tayjay

One of the only longterm contracts to be exposed, I expect Johansson to be chosen relatively early in this draft. He’s attractive to both teams as he has a long term contract with a high TPE count with a couple of prime seasons ahead.

S50 – Centre
First-Name Last-Name – 1569 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Gurbs

Last-Name would be one of the First-Picks I’d make; but the question begs; what does he want? A 1st line, and potentially GREAT 2nd line Centre option, it may be likely that he is looking to win NOW. Would he bother wanting to go to an expansion fracnchise as a UFA?

S49 -Defense
Delver Fudgeson – 1557 TPE
Status: S60 UFA
Massive Coiler

Fudgeson would be a no-brainer pick if Johansson and Lastname weren’t exposed, a very HIGH TPE defender only now facing regression due to age, he could be a great addition to the blueline of an expansion franchise. However, I’m thinking he plays some hardball and doesn’t want to be picked ; he’s in it to win it for Toronto.

1800 WORDS