08-16-2022, 04:25 PMMatteo Wrote:

08-16-2022, 12:31 PMPremierBromanov Wrote: the other thing I'd mention is that i'm not sure what a comparable skater graph would look like. We know that higher TPE typically results in better performance, but this is sort of a self fulfilling prophecy as higher TPE forwards are usually rewarded with higher ice time, which in my experience is the biggest factor in individual player success. We've seen rookies paired with elite players in an effort to protect them, and we've seen those players perform very well. This is an obvious truth: players dont play alone and their lines/team matter more than their individual skillsets. We couldnt even begin to measure individual success of skaters without something akin to hockeyviz, which is an attempt at isolated impact of a given player by removing common factors (other players, coaches, schedule, etc).

Of course, we know that low TPE rosters typically perform very poorly. Any rebuilding team knows this. But, we also know that it's not a linear, one to one relationship. HAM should be the obvious evidence here, or BAP for that matter. That is to say, you can't BUY a cup.

But, where is the disconnect between skaters requiring a good team to do well and goalies requiring a good team to do well? What is the actual difference? I dont think anyone would say that a similar graph of skater TPE would see so flat a slope, but who can say what the actual slope would be? Once we know that difference, we can have a more accurate discussion.

As it stands, the fact that goalies require good teams to play well -- in and of itself -- is not exclusive to goalies. It's the grade of the slope that matters, and without a comparison we have no idea what we are shooting for. Every skater in this league is beholden to their team composition. If we want to fine-tune how good it feels to play a goalie, we have to know exactly how good it feels to not be a goalie.

It would definitely be interesting to compare this to a similar skater graph, if the stats we can get from FHM 8 allow someone smarter than me to have a way to make that it that would be really cool to look at. First thing that came to mind was points vs TPE but obviously then defensive players aren't represented well, then maybe I thought relative cf% vs TPE but that's also far from perfect.

Skaters definitely do benefit from better teams around them as well, I would guess not as much as goalies do, but I was also wrong about both of my predictions before and I've also only been a goalie so far so I'm sure I have biases there too.

Oh we're smart enough, baby. The question is: are we lazy not enough?