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**RomanesEuntDomus** · 03-26-2020, 07:20 PM

03-26-2020, 07:10 PMGeekusoid Wrote:
03-26-2020, 07:06 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote: No.

You seem to assume that we are guaranteed to get the wrong person with the lynching, which I don't agree with at all. And even if we picked the wrong person we a) get some info in the process and b) he can still survive if he makes a good case for himself, for example by hinting at a role, and we decide to retract our votes. The chances of actually hitting a crucial role like the Seer with this are much, much slimmer than hitting a Wolf, and the Seer could still reveal himself in that case and survive. My main point is, if we don't do anything tonight, then how are we in any better situation to make a decision tomorrow? Or is it like the new "meta" of the game to play it suuuuuper slow, avoid lynchings altogether and just hope that all the important roles gather information faster than the wolves kill ppl over night?

And yeah I know that there are more investigatory roles but the Seer is the only really reliable one imho, as the lookout and escort only work in very limited capacity. Plus we don't know how many of these three roles are even in the game, while we are guaranteed to have 4-5 wolves. And regarding the snipes, I've seen quite a lot of those in the past tbh, not just from the Executioner but also from Jesters or people with other roles who just prefer to play a "wildcard" style of game, be it wolf or villager.

Just to make it clear, I'm not absolutely dead set on lynching anything right away, I just generally think it's the smarter approach. We already getting some info just by talking about it, like arty making some good logical points even if I might not agree with all of them.

So what your saying is....going for a lynching, we statistically have a better chance of a werewolf than not?

No not at all, but even if we decide on the wrong guy initially then that person can still get out alive if he manages to change our mind before the final vote. The threat of a lynching can be more useful than the lynching itself, as I say for me this is all about the info, not the killing itself. Statistically we won't have a better chance of getting a WW than a villager with a lynching until very late in the game when the WWs have basically won, does that mean we should just refrain from doing it until then? That's a recipe for desaster imho as it is based on two many prerequisites working in our favor: a) Lots of investigatory roles being in the game who b) do not get killed off and c) get lucky and find not one but multiple wolves.

**RomanesEuntDomus** · 03-26-2020, 07:22 PM

03-26-2020, 07:13 PMNhamlet Wrote:
03-26-2020, 07:10 PMGeekusoid Wrote: So what your saying is....going for a lynching, we statistically have a better chance of a werewolf than not?
Uh don't we have a 4/18 chance of getting a werewolf?

It's pretty much a 25% chance since their might be a turncoat as well, so if we assume that there is about a 50/50 chance that he is in the game, that would essentially give us 4.5 Werewolves.

Durden · 03-26-2020, 07:28 PM

I'm still focused on tnl. He's already lying to me about one thing. Why not this too? Cry

***artermis*** · 03-26-2020, 07:30 PM

03-26-2020, 07:06 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote:
03-26-2020, 06:00 PMTnlAstatine Wrote: are you willing to take on the first lynching for the good of the masses?

No.

03-26-2020, 06:23 PMartermis Wrote:

If one gets so desperate to make a choice on day 2 or later, then it's generally more acceptable to begin to make pushes due to lack of activity or things said in the lack of hard evidence IMO

but I'd rather bank on luck that we get something done day 2 on evidence then lynch a role player Day 1

If we do lynch we wake up two men down and with less time to gather the facts.

If the game goes down to the wire (2v1 villagers-wws), then, in a village victory, there's 3-to-1 dead villagers to werewolves. If we lynch every day, such a game lasts 8 days, as opposed to the exact opposite of a game where we let the WWs kill 3 villagers for every wolf we lynch lasting 13 days.

I recognize the information that's gathered from lynchs as very important, and recognize that the ideal game is more so going to be in-between those two extremes, but every villager we kill is less time for us to win, and incredibly unfortunate if that villager had a role.

I feel that your response neglects that there are three investigatory roles, but also note that, for the same reasons you state, I'm not against lynching on any other day during the game.

"late snipes" are simply shows of the hand, save for the special case of the executioner, which I had not thought of.

In the end, I expect no lynches to be random, but to lynch people for slightly suspicious comments or inactivity this early seems to jump the gun far too early

You seem to assume that we are guaranteed to get the wrong person with the lynching, which I don't agree with at all. And even if we picked the wrong person we a) get some info in the process and b) he can still survive if he makes a good case for himself, for example by hinting at a role, and we decide to retract our votes. The chances of actually hitting a crucial role like the Seer with this are much, much slimmer than hitting a Wolf, and the Seer could still reveal himself in that case and survive. My main point is, if we don't do anything tonight, then how are we in any better situation to make a decision tomorrow? Or is it like the new "meta" of the game to play it suuuuuper slow, avoid lynchings altogether and just hope that all the important roles gather information faster than the wolves kill ppl over night?

And yeah I know that there are more investigatory roles but the Seer is the only really reliable one imho, as the lookout and escort only work in very limited capacity. Plus we don't know how many of these three roles are even in the game, while we are guaranteed to have 4-5 wolves. And regarding the snipes, I've seen quite a lot of those in the past tbh, not just from the Executioner but also from Jesters or people with other roles who just prefer to play a "wildcard" style of game, be it wolf or villager.

Just to make it clear, I'm not absolutely dead set on lynching anything right away, I just generally think it's the smarter approach. We already getting some info just by talking about it, like arty making some good logical points even if I might not agree with all of them.

Quite simply, the odds we randomly lynch a ww at this stage is 1-to-4 (with or without TC)

I don't believe we are guaranteed information, after all if villagers are commencing the voting, the WWs may feel no need to vote themselves, or perhaps side with the the accused to cover their trail later on, but in general you are correct, there are a key few lynchings in a game that provide important facts.

That being said, I'd argue the chances of finding a ww through a trial is only higher in a trial due to a seer having a limited lifespan.

I didn't mean to imply that we don't lynch of course, I tried to say that in a sense, but certainly lynching every day is worse. A healthy balance of not jumping to conclusions is the answer in my eyes, as we cannot rely completely on the nameless and sometimes voiceless few who have investigatory roles to do all of the work for us. The only meta I support is to not lynch the first day, unless something is somehow painfully obvious, or otherwise against the village. Each consecutive day, especially without concrete leads or claims I'd say the potential for less-concrete lynchings increases.

I'd agree that lookout's hit or miss, but escort is quite good in finding the alpha.

I can absolutely respect your opinion as well, as I believe I cast a vote day 1 in the last game I played, but it's all contextual. For example, in that instance we had a bodyguard who was playing the part of a jester iirc, accusing everyone and causing more chaos than a wolf.

Just from the conversations so far I can't discern much myself.

EDIT: Corrected my math on the odds of lynching ww

*fishy* · 03-26-2020, 07:45 PM

I don’t think it’s luff or grum tbh

***luke*** · 03-26-2020, 07:46 PM

03-26-2020, 07:45 PMjfisherr Wrote: I don’t think it’s luff or grum tbh

who is it fish man

*Grum* · 03-26-2020, 07:47 PM

03-26-2020, 07:45 PMjfisherr Wrote: I don’t think it’s luff or grum tbh

I'm glad you believe in me fish

*fishy* · 03-26-2020, 07:49 PM

03-26-2020, 07:46 PMluketd Wrote:
03-26-2020, 07:45 PMjfisherr Wrote: I don’t think it’s luff or grum tbh

who is it fish man

I’m currently tempted by shiny muted segi RED Tron and hockeyiscool

*fishy* · 03-26-2020, 07:51 PM

Segi and RED because I think there could be some reverse psychology at play from one of them from the last game. The other ones cause they’re quiet. This is my beginner’s opinion.

***hockeyiscool*** · 03-26-2020, 08:27 PM

I was asleep for an insanely long time and am finally back at it--thanks corona. I'm suspicious of Jfisherr because why not?

I am part of
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