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Baelor Swift · 02-18-2016, 08:33 PM

Previously billed as one of the potentially greatest draft classes the SHL had ever seen, the Season 25 SHL Draft Class has received very little attention as a whole. But, this is not for a lack of success as this draft class is filled with talented players who have found success early on in their careers. This class is quietly taking the SHL by storm.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about this draft class is that it is virtually devoid of busts - of the top twenty-one selections, only four have yet to reach the 600 TPE threshold. And ten of the top seventeen picks have at least 700 TPE. This is a group of, primarily, first generation players who have not only created highly successful players but has also loaded the league with positive contributions, some already possessing management experience.

Before we look at how the first three rounds of the Season 25 Draft should have went, here is a quick look at what went down on that fateful Wednesday night:

Round 1
1. [Image: 2mqmhad.jpg]

Seattle Riot - Evandrus Jesster
2. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack - Jasper Clayton
3. [Image: 34e4v3m.png]

Buffalo Stampede (via West Kendall Platoon) - Robb Wind
4. [Image: qZBAkbi.png]

West Kendall Platoon (via Buffalo Stampede) - Maria Maximova
5. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfack (via Portland Admirals) - Lord Pretty Flacko
6. [Image: SHLEmoteDragons.png]

Calgary Dragons (via West Kendall Platoon, via Edmonton Blizzard) - Michael Burch
7. [Image: 8x07c6.png]

Edmonton Blizzard (via Toronto North Stars) - Ivan Koroviev
8. [Image: vxgk7d.png]

Texas Renegades (via Manhattan Rage) - Travis Kudleychuk
9. [Image: SHLEmoteDragons.png]

Calgary Dragons - Leon Webb
10. [Image: SHLEmoteJets.png]

Winnipeg Jets - Luke Fleming
11. [Image: vxgk7d.png]

Texas Renegades - Geoffrey Allen
12. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Texas Renegades, via Minnesota Chiefs) - Zack Hoover
13. [Image: 30nc3sw.png]

Toronto North Stars (via Edmonton Blizzard, via Los Angeles Panthers) - Cynthia Taylor
14. [Image: i76fyt.png]

Hamilton Steelhawks - FORFEITED

Round 2
15. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack - Chris Welch
16. [Image: 30nc3sw.png]

Toronto North Stars (via Edmonton Blizzard, via West Kendall Platoon) - Adam Falk
17. [Image: s1hk6o.png]

Portland Admirals - Nikolaus Scholz
18. [Image: SHLEmoteDragons.png]

Calgary Dragons (via Buffalo Stampede) - Jonathan Lundberg
19. [Image: 2mqmhad.jpg]

Seattle Riot (via Edmonton Blizzard) - Ryan King
20. [Image: 2mqmhad.jpg]

Seattle Riot - John Matthews
21. [Image: 16gwwf9.png]

Minnesota Chiefs (via Toronto North Stars) - KristjÃ¡n Vilhjalmsson
22. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Manhattan Rage) - Jack Durden
23. [Image: 34e4v3m.png]

Buffalo Stampede (via Calgary Dragons) - DJ Stanley
24. [Image: SHLEmoteJets.png]

Winnipeg Jets - Austin Lemieux
25. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Texas Renegades) - Roman Morenov
26. [Image: 8x07c6.png]

Edmonton Blizzard (via Toronto North Stars, via Minnesota Chiefs) - Fredrik Zavstrom
27. [Image: 2ugjkte.jpg]

Los Angeles Panthers - Alexander Wolff
28. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Hamilton Steelhawks) - William Hendrickson

Round 3
29. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack - Julie-Anne Marshall
30. [Image: 16gwwf9.png]

Minnesota Chiefs (via Toronto North Stars, via West Kendall Platoon) - Michael Gerrard
31. [Image: qZBAkbi.png]

West Kendall Platoon (via Buffalo Stampede) - Tony Flow
32. [Image: 8x07c6.png]

Edmonton Blizzard (via Portland Admirals) - Ross Burke
33. [Image: s1hk6o.png]

Portland Admirals (via New England Wolfpack, via Edmonton Blizzard) - Matt Veenstra
34. [Image: 30nc3sw.png]

Toronto North Stars (via Manhattan Rage, via Seattle Riot) - John Wick
35. [Image: bgtq49.png]

Manhattan Rage (via Toronto North Stars) - Mario Nyquist
36. [Image: 34e4v3m.png]

Buffalo Stampede (via West Kendall Platoon, via Manhattan Rage) - Rostislav Pirozhkov
37. [Image: SHLEmoteJets.png]

Winnipeg Jets (via Calgary Dragons) - Tim Tebow
38. [Image: vxgk7d.png]

Texas Renegades (via Winnipeg Jets) - Sergei Volchenkov
39. [Image: SHLEmoteJets.png]

Winnipeg Jets (via Calgary Dragons, via Texas Renegades) - McLaren Nasher
40. [Image: 16gwwf9.png]

Minnesota Chiefs - Jukka-Emil Vanaja
41. [Image: 2ugjkte.jpg]

Los Angeles Panthers - Michael Ferkland
42. [Image: SHLEmoteJets.png]

Winnipeg Jets (via Hamilton Steelhawks) - Johnny Cahill[/quote]

Now, for the part everyone is actually here for - the redraft. For this redraft, I made the assumption that each team would simply pick the player with the most TPE to this point. All TPE values were obtained from player pages at approximately 5:30 PM EST on February 18, 2016. SOOOOO, if you have a problem with your TPE here, take it up with your updater. But here we goooooooooo:

Round 1
1. [Image: 2mqmhad.jpg]

Seattle Riot - Robb Wind (763 TPE) +2
2. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack - Jasper Clayton (747 TPE) EVEN
3. [Image: 34e4v3m.png]

Buffalo Stampede (via West Kendall Platoon) - Evandrus Jesster (738 TPE) -2
4. [Image: qZBAkbi.png]

West Kendall Platoon (via Buffalo Stampede) - Maria Maximova (736 TPE) EVEN
5. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfack (via Portland Admirals) - Lord Pretty Flacko (730 TPE) EVEN
6. [Image: SHLEmoteDragons.png]

Calgary Dragons (via West Kendall Platoon, via Edmonton Blizzard) - Geoffrey Allen (729 TPE) +5
7. [Image: 8x07c6.png]

Edmonton Blizzard (via Toronto North Stars) - Adam Falk (714 TPE) +9
8. [Image: vxgk7d.png]

Texas Renegades (via Manhattan Rage) - Nikolaus Scholz (714 TPE) +10
9. [Image: SHLEmoteDragons.png]

Calgary Dragons - Luke Fleming (703 TPE) +1
10. [Image: SHLEmoteJets.png]

Winnipeg Jets - Jonathan Lundberg (700 TPE) +8
11. [Image: vxgk7d.png]

Texas Renegades - Ivan Koroviev (695 TPE) -4
12. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Texas Renegades, via Minnesota Chiefs) - Michael Burch (678 TPE) -6
13. [Image: 30nc3sw.png]

Toronto North Stars (via Edmonton Blizzard, via Los Angeles Panthers) - Ryan King (671 TPE) +6
14. [Image: i76fyt.png]

Hamilton Steelhawks - FORFEITED

Round 2
15. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack - Kristian Vilhjalmsson (668 TPE) +6
16. [Image: 30nc3sw.png]

Toronto North Stars (via Edmonton Blizzard, via West Kendall Platoon) - Travis Kudleychuk (653 TPE) -8
17. [Image: s1hk6o.png]

Portland Admirals - Jack Durden (637 TPE) +5
18. [Image: SHLEmoteDragons.png]

Calgary Dragons (via Buffalo Stampede) - Cynthia Taylor (625 TPE) -5
19. [Image: 2mqmhad.jpg]

Seattle Riot (via Edmonton Blizzard) - Zack Hoover (582 TPE) -7
20. [Image: 2mqmhad.jpg]

Seattle Riot - Roman Morenov (519 TPE) +5
21. [Image: 16gwwf9.png]

Minnesota Chiefs (via Toronto North Stars) - Michael Gerrard (489 TPE) +9
22. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Manhattan Rage) - John Matthews (481 TPE) -2
23. [Image: 34e4v3m.png]

Buffalo Stampede (via Calgary Dragons) - Tony Flow (441 TPE) +8
24. [Image: SHLEmoteJets.png]

Winnipeg Jets - Johnny Cahill (431 TPE) +18
25. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Texas Renegades) - Andris Bukss (407 TPE) +20
26. [Image: 8x07c6.png]

Edmonton Blizzard (via Toronto North Stars, via Minnesota Chiefs) - John Wick (402 TPE) +8
27. [Image: 2ugjkte.jpg]

Los Angeles Panthers - Chris Welch (361 TPE) -12
28. [Image: 6jf4ld.png]

New England Wolfpack (via Hamilton Steelhawks) - Ross Burke (358 TPE) +4

This is interesting, right? Well time for a bit more analysis before I leave you with this. It's easy to say the player with the highest positive change is the biggest steal and the player with the most negative change is the biggest bust. But I'm not so sure about that... so let's take a look. Here's a nice little graph of Draft Position versus TPE.

[Image: cbwDAjN.png]

I made a nice little trendline... which shows that draft position in the Season 25 SHL Entry Draft was only a decent predictor of TPE according to the r-squared value. Basically, the trendline underestimates the TPE of early draft picks and overestimates the TPE of later draft picks. Which indicates what we already know - that this was a very, very strong draft, especially among the best draftees. But we'll use the trendline equation to determine the biggest busts and steals based on percentages of expected TPE. I excluded obvious outliers: players with such low TPE values and/or draft positions that will never make it to the SHL or never would be expected to do so.

Biggest Steals

1. :admirals: D Andris Bukks (45 Overall) - 407 TPE (144% of Expected)
2. Jets

D Johnny Cahill (42 Overall) - 431 TPE (138% of Expected)
3. Chiefs

C Kristian Vilhjalmsson (21 Overall) - 668 TPE (130% of Expected)
4. :admirals: C Nikolaus Scholz (17 Overall) - 714 TPE (129% of Expected)
5. Dragons

C Jonathan Lundberg (18 Overall) - 700 TPE (129% of Expected)

Biggest Busts

1. Dragons

LW Leon Webb (9 Overall) - 350 TPE (56% of Expected)
2. Wolfpack

RW William Hendrickson (28 Overall) - 257 TPE (57% of Expected)
3. Wolfpack

RW Chris Welch (15 Overall) - 361 TPE (63% of Expected)
4. Blizzard

C Fredrik Zavstrom (26 Overall) - 298 TPE (64% of Expected)
5. Jets

G Austin Lemieux (24 Overall) - 315 TPE (65% of Expected)

So there you have it - the Season 25 SHL Entry Draft in review. What is most impressive about this group is how much talent there is at the top. It is very likely that we will see around 10-15 players cross the 1000 TPE milestone - not just in their careers but very feasibly by Season 29 or 30. This draft class is the future of the SHL and, from the looks of it, we've only seen the very beginning of what they are capable of.

Dmoushey_31 · 02-18-2016, 08:38 PM

this is a badass article. do more draft classes!

bbp · 02-18-2016, 08:38 PM

CAHILL FUCKING HYPE

karlssens · 02-18-2016, 08:41 PM

Way to go bukks!
Also 3/5 of the top steals are Knights

not bad at all.

Great article baelor!

Eggy216 · 02-18-2016, 08:47 PM

I'll catch you soon, Robb Wind. THIS I SWEAR.

**Rich** · 02-18-2016, 08:48 PM

:D

ArGarBarGar · 02-18-2016, 08:48 PM

What happened to Leon Webb?

Alonzo Garbanzo Final Tallies (Among Defensemen):
2nd in Goals (208), All-Time Assists Leader (765)*, All-Time Points Leader (973), 3rd in Hits (2587), All-Time Blocked Shots Leader (1882)*
*All-Time Leader Among All Skaters
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