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An Examination of Possession A Wild JayWhy Article Has Appeared
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<div align="center">An Examination of Possession
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If you’ve seen a game in the SHL this season, you’ve heard about the Los Angeles Panthers sudden rocket to the top of the standings. You’ve seen the clips of them dominating the opposition, what with their 3.75 goals per game head and shoulders above the next best New England Wolfpack. You’ve heard about their rookie goaltender and his race to the Ryan Jesster, or their acquisition of Chester Cunningham and his attack on the league scoring lead.

However, what you may not have heard, is the story behind the teams. In S28, a new statistic was born in the SHL, created by myself and teztify with inspiration from bbp. Due to the inspiration, the statistic was named BBP%, and it measures possession in the SHL. The statistic may be flawed somewhat, it can’t be derived into different situations, but it serves as a test of time to understand the way the league has worked.

The statistic has been retroactively assessed to S25, the entrance of the most recent expansion, and to date, here are trends that could help us better understand this season.


The Panthers story has been done before.

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It’s true. The Los Angeles Panthers are all but guaranteed to win the President’s Trophy this season, currently with 72 points, 14 more than the next best Seattle Riot with only 6 games remaining. That is dominance that we haven’t seen often in the SHL.

BBP% shows a different tale, though. The Panthers rank 9th in the SHL in BBP%, a 50.17% possession clip, the last of those above the midway point for possession. Meanwhile, in PDO, a statistic combining shooting percentage and save percentage to determine luck, they are at a huge 102.35, ranking as the luckiest team in the league. It would stand to reason that a team with such a huge lead would have to be lucky, and so we’ve looked back on the recent seasons of the SHL.

The only team to win the President’s Trophy since S25 without having led the league in PDO, as Los Angeles appears primed to do, were S31’s New England Wolfpack who had a 99.54 PDO and were 9th in the league in that category.

How often do we see a team with a poor BBP% ranking and a high PDO win the President’s Trophy? It’s happened twice, actually. S25’s Winnipeg Jets, who managed to win the Challenge Cup, were the first to do it with a 101.95 PDO and a 50.21 BBP%, ranking 9th in the league similar to the Panthers we see today.

S29’s Minnesota Chiefs followed that story of success with a 101.92 PDO and 50.40 BBP%, which ranked 8th in the SHL that season. That team is infamous for failing to win a game in the playoffs. This shows a distinct difference in the two previous occurrences of this success, and leaves things open for the Los Angeles Panthers to write their own destiny.

The natural follow-up question is, have we ever seen a team with such a high PDO before?

Only once has a team finished the season with a PDO higher than Los Angeles, though it’s very possible their PDO drops slightly in the final few games and they match with Toronto of S31 and Calgary of S30. The team who topped Los Angeles in PDO was the Edmonton Blizzard in S27. The season before winning the Cup, the Blizzard won the President’s Trophy with a dominant run, landing at 78 points and a whole 10 more points than the next best team -- seems familiar to the Los Angeles situation.

In fact, that Edmonton team was 38-10-2, meanwhile the Panthers today are 35-7-2. In their final 6 games, that Edmonton team went 4-2, if the Panthers go 3-3, they’ll be completely even.

That Edmonton team, which so perfectly aligns with this Los Angeles team, lost 4-2 in the first round of the playoffs to the Seattle Riot. Take that how you will, with a grain of salt of course as a different team could have a different result.


Oh, how sour it is.

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Missing the playoffs is never fun. However, every season somebody has to do it. In this case, we see some good teams sometimes fall due to bad luck or struggling play. This season, it appears it’ll be bad luck that drives a team out.

The Winnipeg Jets are currently sitting at 6th in the Western Conference, and are 7 points away from a playoff spot with 7 games remaining. While this isn’t an insurmountable hill, it’s definitely a difficult climb with so many teams pushing for the playoffs. Winnipeg currently has a 98.04 PDO, the worst in the league. Even lower than the Portland Admirals, who seem to have demanded to be worst in the league with everything.

It appears spotty goaltending has pulled them down, as they find themselves with the lowest team SV% in the league, and are below average at shooting as well. They still find themselves at 2nd in BBP% with a 52.02%. Missing out the playoffs with that kind of possession will be a remarkable feat, with only four teams since S25 having missed while ranking within the top-four in BBP% and only one having done so with a higher BBP%.

Those teams are the S25 Toronto North Stars (2nd), S26 Edmonton Blizzard (4th), S27 New England Wolfpack (2nd) and S30 Toronto North Stars (3rd). As you can tell, they all rebounded quickly, each team made the playoffs the following season with similarly great possession numbers.

The S30 Toronto North Stars team was the most stunning of them. They had a superb 52.44 BBP%, but ranked 10th in PDO with a 99.32. Winnipeg could find themselves comparable there, likely able to rebound well. All they have to do is avoid losing their top player for a season, maybe not talk to contracted players, to not suffer the same fate as Toronto has for S32.


History tends to be a know-it-all.

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With so few games remaining, it appears the Calgary Dragons are going to have the best BBP% in the league with a 53 even. They should be feared in the playoffs, they’re typically a heavy possession team and are likely to find themselves in a duel with the Los Angeles Panthers, who I covered earlier.

The Edmonton and Seattle series also appears likely, which could be the toughest to predict. They fall at 5th and 6th in BBP% respectively, and are similarly close in PDO, with only Hamilton between them.

Minnesota is a whole other story to cover. They appear likely, though not guaranteed, to earn the 4th spot in the East and challenge the victory of the three-man race between West Kendall, New England and Manhattan. They currently sit with a 47.43 BBP%, good for 12th in the league, and a 101.03 PDO showing they’re a little bit lucky. The three battling at the top should all be licking their chops as it appears the Minnesota reliance on their top players has yielded them some depth problems.

New England should be well set in the East. They’re the only team in the Eastern Conference in the top-6 in BBP%, and have a very close to even PDO meaning they’re expected to be where they are. Their 51.92 BBP% is third in the entire league, while the West Kendall Platoon and Manhattan Rage sit at 7th and 8th respectively, with a 51.11 for the Platoon and a 50.61 for the Rage. It remains tight, but the Wolfpack are clearly ahead.

History could also be on their side. Since S25, five of the seven Challenge Cup Champions have been in the top-7 in BBP%. The two lowest of those are the most recent New England Wolfpack victories, ranking 6th in S30 and 7th in S31. The anomalies noted of those seven were S25’s Winnipeg Jets, ranking 9th and S26’s Hamilton Steelhawks ranking 11th. Showing it is possible, though it may require sacrifices to a seldom-known simulation god.

Of the five top-7 teams, three were in the top-4: Edmonton and the two Calgary victories. It appears at this point that the most likely scenario is an Eastern Conference Challenge Cup victory. The most likely teams to win the Cup are Calgary, New England and Texas. The intrigue in there being that Texas and Calgary are battling for the 4th and final playoff spot currently. Whoever wins out seems primed for a shot at the Challenge Cup. Though that doesn’t rule out the remaining Western Conference teams also appearing in the top-7 nor West Kendall also in that position.

A random prediction appears.

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The season has not ended, but I am a fan of being a little bold. As such, I’m making a few predictions for the coming postseason as well as a quick look at next season.

First, I have a gut feeling that Los Angeles will be losing in the first round. To whom, I do not know at this moment. However, they’ll be facing a dominant possession team with history as an indication that the 4th seed in the West is the most likely champion. It’s still possible that Los Angeles wins, they have strong management and a steady team. It’s just the statistics swaying my opinion.

Second, if Minnesota manages to make the playoffs, I see them bowing out in the first round yet again. My apologies to ArGarBarGar, it just doesn’t seem to be your year yet.

Third, I’m going to predict the Eastern Conference Finals to be West Kendall and New England, the winner of that match-up being the runner-up in the Challenge Cup Finals.

I hope you’ve enjoyed this look at the statistics of the league, the background of a winner. All statistics used are available through the FOIA. If you have ideas to use them or would like a peek at them, I am happy to oblige.</div>

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.
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Thanks to Jackson, Copenhagen, and Harry Hans!

GOING DOWN IN STYLE. TOAST4LYFE
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#2

as a CBJ fan, this isn't anything new to me ;Wink

u n s u s t a i n a b l e

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#3

love these articles

nice work JY, always like seeing how teams actually look with advanced stats in the sim

Cheers

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#4

Always love me some stats... and somehow getting a Portland mention, even if it is as the worst in all categories lol.

Nice job <a href='index.php?showuser=232' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-24'>JayWhy</a>

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#5

Great article, really interesting to see possession metrics in the SHL.

#GOJETSGO
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S32 SHL Draft No. 1 Overall

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Max Weber || D#39 || Portland Admirals/Winnipeg Jets ||
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#6

Minnesota predicted to bow out of the first round again?

Hawt take, JayWhy. Ninja

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