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SHL Expansion Result Analysis
#1

I recently made an article giving a grade to every exposed player in the expansion draft, so why won't go with a follow-up and a bit of additional information in the player's contracts. We also had some trades since that article, most notably Edmonton swapping rights to top players with Jets that exposed Oisin Fletcher, Czerkawski's rights trade to Tampa Bay, that got him protected and Mattias Enqvist/Shouta Aizawa swap between Platoon and Panthers.
So let's get right to it, just a few words about methodology as always - the first line after a pick refers to my previous article. Then I say a few words of commentary, show the contract situation and give a grade, though don't pay to much attention since it's subjective and I haven't put much thought about it, other than trying to grasp a big picture with it.

Round 1:
Specters - Aleister Cain Blizzard
From: Edmoton Blizzard Blizzard S43 G – Aleistar Cain Overall Score / Rank: 31,65 / 5 Expected TPE: 699
He was a great pick here, especially considering he immediately signed 3-year team friendly extension. Franchise goalie and really active cornerstone to build a franchise on is a great value.
Contract Status: S45: $3M, S46: $3M, S47: $3M
Pick Grade: 10/10

syndicate - Fredrich Koenig Stampede
From: Buffalo Stampede Stampede S39 D – Friedrich Koenig Overall Score / Rank: 19,93 / 33 Expected TPE: 883
When I saw the pick I was initially hesitant because Stampede had better and more active currently players, but they weren't under S46 contract yet, unlike picked here Fredrich, that is under team control until his regression starts and is more than a serviceable defender.
Contract Status: S45: $3M, S46: $3M, S47: $3M
Pick Grade: 7/10

Round 2:
syndicate - Gvidas Kazlauskas Panthers
From: Los Angeles Panthers Panthers S43 F - Gvidas Kazlauskas Overall Score / Rank: 28,47 / 12 Expected TPE: 684
I really like the player, as he is one of the few young and active players in this draft and has a shot at being the first of many great Chicago players. The only uncertainty remains about his Free Agency plans because only thing we know is that he can't return to Los Angeles. From his high draft position, I reckon Syndicate GM is rather convinced he is there to stay.
Contract Status: Free Agent
Pick Grade: 7/10

Specters - Osin Fletcher Jets
From: Winnipeg Jets Jets S36 F – Oisin Fletcher Overall Score / Rank: 38,78 / N/A Expected TPE: 1800
Not ranked in my previous edition is the highest TPE player in the draft, that just come off the Challenge Cup victory and is Top 5 player in recent history, including MVP trophy in S43. I gather similarly to Gvidas Fletcher is likely to end up in New Orleans considering the high draft position, that only assures those rights acquired by the Jets are completely worthless (seriously, the whole idea of drafting rights is a bad and tedious idea, can we just have extended Free Agency period as soon as Challenge Cup is over, to kill offseason boringness a bit)?
Contract Status: Free Agent
Pick Grade: 7/10

Round 3:
Specters - Roman Augustus Platoon
From: platoon Platoon S36 F – Roman Augustus Overall Score / Rank: 36,14 / 1 Expected TPE: 1586,7
One more S36 stud, that we can be sure will join the Big Easy, as he is appointed to become co-GM there, reuniting Kurczewski and Augustus once again for the final rodeo(s). The Top Line of Kurczewski/Fletcher/Augustus is just scary and should be the most dominant for at least a season or two.
Contract Status: Free Agent
Pick Grade: 9/10

syndicate - Mikkel Haugen Panthers
From: Los Angeles Panthers Panthers S40 F - Mikkel Haugen Overall Score / Rank: 21,52 / 29 Expected TPE: 648
Los Angeles Panthers weren't the team I expected to be done with expansion draft before the round 4 started but here we are. Haugen is yet another mid-level player signed long term to a team friendly contract and an active, which is really important for a new franchice. Still 4 years before regression kicks in assures the value for the Syndicate.
Contract Status:  S45: $2M, S46: $2M, S47: $2M
Pick Grade: 7/10

Round 4:
syndicate - Romualds Loks Stars
From: Toronto Stars Stars S39 F – Romualds Loks Overall Score / Rank: 18,4 / 40 Expected TPE: 840
Inactive S39 player with decent TPE, but I'm not sure I like this pick - he won't bring much activity to the locker room and even as trade asset how much can you demand for 840 TPE player? Only three seasons before he gets eaten alive by regression too, which as evident by Chicago plan so far might not be enough to build a contender.
Contract Status: IFA
Pick Grade: 5/10

Specters - Sean Stevenson Jr pride
From: San Francisco Pride pride S43 D - Sean Stevenson Jr. Overall Score / Rank: 17,79 / 41 Expected TPE: 549
Sean was rather low on my list, due to not updating ever since S45 started, but if he gets to update even once a season he is going to be a steal for NOLA with this contract and that he is more active than some other players already taken. His activity during expansion draft is also good sign for the Specters.
Contract Status: S45: $3M, S46: $3M, S47: $3M

Pick Grade: 8/10
Round 5:
Specters - Richard Physt Stars
From: Toronto Stars Stars S39 D – Richard Physt Overall Score / Rank: 29,52 / 9 Expected TPE: 1052
Did you hear an anecdote about Checkers and 4D Chess, because this draft starts looking like it. I'm hesitant to give a higher grade, considering player is a free agent, but if he wants to chase trophies NOLA starts looking as good choice as any, only knock is that West is looking much more competitive than the East at the moment.
Contract Status:  Free Agent
Pick Grade: 7/10

syndicate - Buck Maverick Wolfpack
From: New England Wolfpack Wolfpack S42 D – Buck Maverick Overall Score / Rank: 22,37 / 25 Expected TPE: 555
I'm on the fence here, TC is a slow earner and I dare to say this pick would be better if the team could offer him a higher contract instead of a minimum deal that cripples his ability to buy training. Still, he should be a decent Top 6 defender throughout his career and you can only demand so much from pick number 10 in the expansion draft.
Contract Status:  S46: $2M, S47: $2M, S48: $2M
Pick Grade: 8/10

Round 6:
syndicate - Jack Kennedy pride
From: San Francisco Pride pride S43 F - Jack Kennedy Overall Score / Rank: 24,43 / 19 Expected TPE: 560
An active decently developing player - only problem? A free agent, but Chicago should rather easily convince him to stay with plenty of opportunities to play and bags of mob money to pay his efforts.
Contract Status: Free Agent
Pick Grade: 7/10

Specters - Clint Eastwood Rage
From: Manhattan Rage Rage S36 D – Clint Eastwood (Waived NTC) Overall Score / Rank: 20,92 / 31 Expected TPE: 1084,5
Specters probably feel at this point that they have a good shot at competing as soon as next season and kicked their tires for one of more developed defenceman, albeit already in regression. He is rather inactive, but occasionally posts on forums so will be interesting to see what his future will hold, tough waived NTC for the purpose of expansion draft suggest he might be happy with one of the new teams.
Contract Status: S46: $2M
Pick Grade: 8/10

Round 7:
Specters - Karl Hefeweizen Jets
From: Winnipeg Jets Jets S36 D – Karl Hefeweizen Overall Score / Rank: 20,62 / 32 Expected TPE: 1060,2
Almost a carbon copy of the previous pick is yet another aging defenceman, that is even more inactive, not even signing on to the new version of the forums. He will be serviceable for 3-4 more seasons so there is some value with a current gameplan for the New Orleans.
Contract Statuts: IFA
Pick Grade: 7/10

syndicate - Mikhail Petrikov Renegades
From: Texas Renegades Renegades S39 D – Mikhail Petrikov Overall Score / Rank: 16,51 / 50 Expected TPE: 607
The inactive feast continues, this time only 607 TPE player that has 3 unregressed seasons ahead of him. Sad, especially since we are just midway through the draft.
Contract Status: S46: $2M
Pick Grade: 5/10

Round 8:
syndicate - Sven Brokstad Platoon
From: West Kendall Platoon Platoon S37 D – Sven Brokstad Overall Score / Rank: 19,81 / 34 Expected TPE: 954
I'm on the fence here and have mixed feelings about this particular pick, because while Brokstad has a decent amount of TPE his contract is a bit high and goes a while into regression without much hope of his player returning to activity.
Contract Status:  S45: $4M, S46: $4M, S47: $4M, S48: $4M
Pick Grade: 6/10

Specters - Adam Kaiser Dragons
From: Calgary Dragons Dragons S31 D – Adam Kaiser Overall Score / Rank: 17,07 / 44 Expected TPE: 974,95
Contract Status: S46: $4M
Pick Grade: 6/10
The quality goes down with every pick and we have a player that is losing 15%+ every season due to regression and not getting any younger. Still, at least for a season or two, he is more than capable Top 4 D.

Round 9:
Specters - Alex Andani Wolfpack
From: New England Wolfpack Wolfpack S41 F - Alex Andani Overall Score / Rank: 23,13 / 22 Expected TPE: 738
Not a top earner within its class, but an active nonetheless. Depth center in current Specters squad with a bit of high contract, but if NOLA has the opportunity to sign some players to home town discount it's not a big deal.
Contract Status: S46: $5.5M
Pick Grade: 7/10

syndicate - Muhammad McLovin Chiefs
From: Minnesota Chiefs Chiefs S41 F – Muhammad McLovin Overall Score / Rank: 16,92 / 45 Expected TPE: 640
The first chief of the board is an S41 IFA, that should be a decent 3rd line filler for some seasons to come.
Contract Status:  IFA
Pick Grade: 6/10

Round 10:
syndicate - Svatoslav Bodnar Barracuda
From: Tampa Bay Barracuda Barracuda S38 D – Svatoslav Bodnar Overall Score / Rank: 16,61 / 48 Expected TPE: 655
IAs everywhere and that will be the motive until the last round where actual GMs are going to get picked. Only two seasons out of this player is really meh, 3rd pairing filler at best.
Contract Status:  S46: $3M
Pick Grade: 5/10

Specters - Vasily Horvat Renegades
From: Texas Renegades Renegades S31 F – Vasily Horvat Overall Score / Rank: 23,47 / 21 Expected TPE: 967,3
Classic case of free agent and while Vasily is heavily into regression he is still decent Top 6 player and if he signs with a team that selected him he can be sure of fighting for it all.
Contract Status: Free Agent
Pick Grade: 7/10

Round 11:
Specters - Soren Kirkegaard Barracuda
From: Tampa Bay Barracuda Barracuda S42 F – Soren Kierkegaard Overall Score / Rank: 14,86 / 69 Expected TPE: 433
Tlk has been long IA, but there aren't really many people you could get at this point and at least his contract is team friendly deal with a slight hope for some LR and player activity.
Contract Status:   S46: $1M, S47: $1M
Pick Grade: 7/10

syndicate - Helmuts Akmenlauks Dragons
From: Calgary Dragons Dragons S43 D – Helmuts Akmenlauks Overall Score / Rank: 15,29 / 63 Expected TPE: 347
Low key a nice pickup considering the player is active, while 347 TPE isn't much for S43 class if he picks up the tempo it might be a steal of a draft here.
Contract Status:  S46: $3M (TO)
Pick Grade: 8/10

Round 12:
syndicate - Cédric Moreau Rage
From: Manhattan Rage Rage S39 G – Cedric Moreau Overall Score / Rank: 19,75 / 35 Expected TPE: 707
Decent stop gap option until Syndicate grooms a franchise goaltender, which they for sure will target in upcoming draft, just before regressing hits Cedric the successor should be ready.
Contract Status:  7/10
Pick Grade: IFA

Specters - Patrick Brumm, Jr. Steelhawks
From: Hamilton Steelhawks Steelhawks S39 D – Patrick Brumm Jr. Overall Score / Rank: 14,94 / 67 Expected TPE: 480
One more filler and not a gamechanger in any sense.
Contract Status:  S46: $1M
Pick Grade: 5/10

Round 13:
Specters - Nathan Costco Chiefs
From: Minnesota Chiefs Chiefs S43 G – Nathan Cosco Overall Score / Rank: 15,83 / 53 Expected TPE: 229
Likely career backup, I guess decent enough to have that out of checklist of players to sign in time for a season.
Contract Status: IFA
Pick Grade:  5/10

syndicate - Kire Yelkrab Steelhawks
From: Hamilton Steelhawks Steelhawks S40 F – Kire Yelkrab Overall Score / Rank: 15,43 / 59 Expected TPE: 560
Contract Status:  IFA
Pick Grade: 5/10

Round 14:
syndicate - Luke Atmey Stampede (GM)
From: Buffallo Stampede Stampede S32 F – Luke Atmey Overall Score / Rank: 31,38 / 6 Expected TPE: 1364,25
Contract Status: Free Agent
Pick Grade: N/A

Specters - Joe Kurczewski Blizzard (GM)
From: Edmonton Blizzard Blizzard S31 F – Joe Kurczewski Overall Score / Rank: 32,53 / 4 Expected TPE: 1496,85
Contract Status:  Free Agent
Pick Grade: N/A

Not much to be said about GMs other than that they are exceptional players and should be a force to be reckoned with for at least a few more seasons.

Predicted lines (IF they are able to secure all their FAs)
 
Specters
1st F: S36 Roman Augustus (1586 TPE) - S36 Oisin Fletcher (1800 TPE) - S31 Joe Kurczewski (1496 TPE)
2nd F: S31 Vasily Horvat (967 TPE) - S41 Alex Andani (738 TPE) - S42 Soren Kierkegaard (433 TPE)
1st D: S36 Clint Eastwood (1084 TPE) - S36 Karl Hefeweizen (1060 TPE)
2nd D: S39 Richard Physt (1052 TPE) - S31 Adam Kaiser (974 TPE)
3rd D: S43 Sean Stevenson Jr. (549 TPE) - S39 Patrick Brumm Jr. (480 TPE)
G – S43 Aleistar Cain (699 TPE) - S43 Nathan Cosco (229 TPE)

syndicate
1st F:  S43 Gvidas Kazlauskas (684 TPE) - S32 Luke Atmey (1364 TPE) - S39 Romualds Loks (840 TPE)
2nd F: S40 Mikkel Haugen (648 TPE) - S43 Jack Kennedy (560 TPE) - S41 Muhammad McLovin (640TPE)
3rd F: S40 Kire Yelkrab (560 TPE)
1st D: S37 Sven Brokstad (954 TPE) - S39 Friedrich Koenig (883 TPE)
2nd D: S38 Svatoslav Bodnar (655 TPE) - S39 Mikhail Petrikov (607 TPE)
3rd D: S42 Buck Maverick (555 TPE) - S43 Helmuts Akmenlauks (347 TPE)
G – S39 Cedric Moreau (707 TPE)
Specters looking like a contender already, especially if they get any reinforcements in forwards department, while Syndicate is building more of a long term and will try to either save or deal some of their players reinforcing the push in few seasons.

Note to the OMFG EXPANSION TEAMS GOT SO MUCH AND THEY COMPLAINED BEFORE HOW THEY DARE TO DO SO people. They only received the following 1k+ TPE players not regressing under contract for next season:
-
Yup none, null, zilch, 0, nada - if any of those teams make noise next season in the playoffs it would be mostly due to securing players in Free Agency and selecting them in expansion draft gives no additional big tangible advantage. You can count on one hand active players under contract that were selected and are a safe bet to play for expansion teams next season. Most of the teams that lost some older developed players choose to do that instead of exposing younger talent and you can only blame GMs so much for trying to win now if they weren't any other viable alternatives in the expansion draft.

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Anyway, that's it for the article, expansion drafts don't happen every day and it was a pleasure covering it a bit, looking forward to how the teams are going to fare both next seasons and in long term future.

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#2

Hmm. Any chance of us seeing the total tpe of expansion teams alongside other teams?
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#3

02-11-2019, 09:27 AMWhite Cornerback Wrote: Hmm. Any chance of us seeing the total tpe of expansion teams alongside other teams?

Not by me, I've grinded enough money to not care and collect anymore data for foreseeable future. Plus without FA results it's kind of pointless - theoretically expansion teams could end up with half amount they have right now (or in best case scenario with 5k+ more). I member some article last season and some teams were approaching 20k, can't find it tough.


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#4

The only 10/10 pick??? Thanks for the kind words maj! Go specters

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#5

my one surprising question is
how did Chicago not pick me

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#6

02-11-2019, 10:13 AMbluesfan55 Wrote: my one surprising question is
how did Chicago not pick me

Chicago is looking like they want to build a young team. You’re about to head into regression with 1.2k(?) TPE. They picked the right North Star for what they’re trying to build.

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#7

02-11-2019, 10:16 AMJSS Wrote:
02-11-2019, 10:13 AMbluesfan55 Wrote: my one surprising question is
how did Chicago not pick me

Chicago is looking like they want to build a young team. You’re about to head into regression with 1.2k(?) TPE. They picked the right North Star for what they’re trying to build.

I mean the article says their pick is IA? Is he?

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#8

I mean, any team that has joe and Augustus will have some chance of playoffs. Even with shitty players behind them, the 1st line can pick up a lot of the weight. That being said, NOLA fleeced thé drafted and Chicago failed in picking some key pieces

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#9

02-11-2019, 10:33 AMluketd Wrote: I mean, any team that has joe and Augustus will have some chance of playoffs. Even with shitty players behind them, the 1st line can pick up a lot of the weight. That being said, NOLA fleeced thé drafted and Chicago failed in picking some key pieces

can confirm, both have nice tooshies and scored lots of gols.

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#10

02-11-2019, 11:16 AM.bojo Wrote:
02-11-2019, 10:33 AMluketd Wrote: I mean, any team that has joe and Augustus will have some chance of playoffs. Even with shitty players behind them, the 1st line can pick up a lot of the weight. That being said, NOLA fleeced thé drafted and Chicago failed in picking some key pieces

can confirm, both have nice tooshies and scored lots of gols.

Oui oui baguette. 

That being said, evok is still in FA mode. If they lose evok it’s still a good 1st line. But 2nd and 3rd line ain’t looking so hot. Defense is alright.

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#11

Being fair, I may not have updated but I did trainings and such to do a big update after the expansion draft Smile

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#12

02-11-2019, 11:18 AMluketd Wrote:
02-11-2019, 11:16 AM.bojo Wrote: can confirm, both have nice tooshies and scored lots of gols.

Oui oui baguette. 

That being said, evok is still in FA mode. If they lose evok it’s still a good 1st line. But 2nd and 3rd line ain’t looking so hot. Defense is alright.

Goalie sux

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#13

02-11-2019, 10:33 AMluketd Wrote: I mean, any team that has joe and Augustus will have some chance of playoffs. Even with shitty players behind them, the 1st line can pick up a lot of the weight. That being said, NOLA fleeced thé drafted and Chicago failed in picking some key pieces

I probably could’ve been a key piece in Chicago had they picked me. I was fully expecting to leave Toronto, which would’ve sucked cause I like it there, so I’m happy I wasn’t picked

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