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Julio Tokolosh · 03-08-2019, 04:19 AM

TL;DR - more early analysis on rookies, particularly tpe effort to point production or lack thereof, and some predraft metrics when meeting rookies.

As much hate for overdrafting as Halifax got in the previous post, their offense is producing, from top to bottom, and this article will sing their praises. Assessing a player’s potential is of high importance and will continue to be until the player stops caring, which is typically when he or she will peak/overlap with their potential. Pre-draft grades, like TPE and forum activity, are popular indicators for ongoing success, frequently measured in points and wins. By manually scraping these statistics and adding them onto the last column’s spreadsheet, one is better able to compare pre-draft metrics with early season performance.

For most SMJHL teams it is not important to have every rookie be a hit, but having a few that can contribute meaningful minutes is what theoretically separates the good teams from the bad. The previous article pointed out that Halifax drafted players above where they had put in “TPE effort”, but for a team that is built to win now, picking up the safe bets could be seen as the smarter move, as it has paid off tremendously through the first 2 simulation weeks, particularly when applied as tactfully as Halifax’s coaching staff has done.

Using this completely arbitrary formula ( (points / TPE) x 1000 ) - (TPE x 0.01) a player’s efforts to rewards can be factored. The first part is relatively simple, but multiplying it by 1000 makes it a more palatable number. The end of the formula serves as a mild effort punishment. As everything else has been multiplied by 1000, it should only be a factor if a player has no points, or if two players are tied in a statistic, in which case the edge goes to the player who has done more with less. With this in mind, a very interesting top 8 value is found.

Player - Points - TPE - Team - Draft Value

Best

Joseph Laraque - 16 -223 - HAL - 69.52

Seemu Telanne - 16 - 225 - ANA - 51.08

Cullen Gray - 11 - 215 - WHA - 49.01

Isaiah Reece - 7 - 159 - HAL - 42.44

Ender Zavala - 7 - 184 - HAL - 36.20

Jax Duggan - 8 - 213 - WHA - 35.43

Austin Roenick - 8 - 216 - LBL - 34.88

Gustav Steen - 5 - 155 -ANA - 30.71

Less Great

The significance (not literal mathematical significance, mind you) is Halifax is producing high levels of offense with 2 players that haven’t updated since they were invited to their team’s discord (that was salty, Zavala has updated, but 184 is still a training camp below average. Watch, i bet he’s purchased equipment and passed me by the time I get paid for this). The above list is less about the player's efforts, but more an indication of how their coaches have utilized them. I hope? It's my first season and I’m still figuring this out (still figuring myself out, too, like the pubescent cow that I am, I just got my first point today (game 24); brutal).

How sustainable is a scoring line that features a player in their 150’s? Halifax and Anaheim are laughing straight to bank currently, but I believe that things will even out in the great sim of life. And Kelowna better hope so. On the reverse end (there were players with 0 points, but I skipped ones that hadn’t updated recently)

Player - Points - TPE - Team - Draft Value

Worst

Mattie Brunton - 0 -195 - STL - 1.95

Noah Gallagher - 0 - 195 - STL - 190 (joined late)

Gunnar Soderberg - 1 - 227 - KEL - 2.14

Vadim Malichov - 1 - 221 - KEL - 2.31

Julio Tokolosh - 1 - 210 - COL - 2.66

Slap McShotty - 1 - 197 - ANA - 3.11

Less Worse

All of these players have put in a reasonable effort off-ice and it should just be a matter of time until their situations shift. They weren’t bad picks, by any means (i really, really hope), Kelowna has the two future studs on the 4th line with a target of 5 minutes of ice time and rocking a 0-3-2, it could be a while before these caged birds sing. Statistics like these are why Ryan Strome doesn’t sleep until the trade deadline, but as a simulated cow, my job is to keep my head down, reallot the 20 points I put in faceoff as a winger, and do my job. And get pucks deep.

Pivoting back to pre-draft analysis, and how to assess which player is going to be a top contributor, the TPE variable will slide back to the February 23rd update, where players had stocked up preseason TPE but hadn’t implemented it yet. Assuming that the goal of each franchise is to pick player’s that will give the franchise the best chance for success, near and distant, I hypothesize that a telling value would be a player’s “activity” (measurable forum posts (i counted by page until I saw around Kelowna that it was accessible on the user page)) plus his / her banked TPE thus far. The idea is that a rebuild is someone that has already enjoyed the simulation experience enough to do it again, and will likely know the ropes of not putting 20 faceoff points into your winger build. Dammit. All rebuilds will have the forum activity boost (a range of 114 to almost 10,000 when counted 2 days ago). 114 (Joseph Laraque) is low for a rebuild, but these are easy questions for the GMs to ask, further red flags include Patrick Muller, Gunnar Petrov, and Herry Morris, all who are listed as rebuilds but have below 60 posts. Reasonably, their activity boost is lower than Thomas Bathory’s 6000+. They are easily capable of saying “Hey, this time I'm getting into it for real” and showing with TPE how interested they are, unfortunately, Petrov is the only one that opted for that route.

In this range of questionable rebuilds, is the overachieving tier of pure rookies. Frequently accused of “Yea, yea, I see you’re super active in the J, but that just means you’re going to burn out” there is a certainly a list of healthy S47 eligible rookies that have definitely not burned out (after 2 weeks).

Player - Activity plus Preseason - Second update

Best

Jax Duggan - 345 - 5

Corey Kennedy - 309 - 5

Gunnar Soderberg - 298 - 5

Espen Knutsen Jr - 296 - 5

Tony Ford - 281 - 15

Wibbly McButternutz - 277 - 5

Sami Raanta - 274 - 15

Julio Tokolosh - 254 - 14

Cullen Gray - 251 - 5

Eko Van Otter - 240 - 23

Aaron Wilson - 240 - 5

Isaac Yamada - 236 - 17

Jay BoomBoom - 235 - 7

Slap McShotty - 230 - 17

Jason Kruger - 228 - 5

Jake Peralta - 208 - 16

Prz Brz - 205 - 13

Ja’Aj Coitus-Wagg - 200 - 7

Lex Peters - 200 - 0

Joe Ackroyd - 199 - 14

Sami Votto - 198 - 0

Spencer MacLean - 196 - 21

Joshua Maugher - 196 - 5

Josh Driver - 192 - 5

Ender Zavala - 188 - 11

Dirk Von G - 183 - 0

Mattie Brunton - 183 - 28

Worst

I left off a bunch who weren’t drafted, or haven’t updated since, and I wanted to include Mattie as the last contributor. There’s a fuzzy line in the middle, where heuristics take over, and you know your present self nods and thinks “whoa, yea it makes sense that he/she hasn’t updated since, they were quiet and didn't get into the forum nor the discord, and didn’t really go out of their way to get TPE.” The far right column appears inverted because many of the top players who had been grinding for weeks before the draft date could already afford equipment, and (guess) were confident enough in their TPE to not rush in the mock draft or other point tasks immediately.

With all of this in mind, each GM can look at what he or she values in a potential teammate, combined with the team’s needs to make a decision as to which pure rookie appeals to their franchise. When is it worth dipping to a Sami Votto when Akashi SixNine is still on the board? But really, how did SixNine not get picked up until the third round? He’s an ex-GM and a department head. Detroit took Lex Peters above him and is keeping that contract in the same folder as Savoli Tankovic, Caladan Brood, and Gavin Francisco.

In conclusion,

Halifax raiders

Halifax’s overdrafted safe picks have produced 42 points and are a large reason that they sit atop the standings. While perhaps they went out of order to get to some players, their formula brought them some enormous rebuild studs, 1 mid tier rookie, and 2 guys that will never visit this site again, but whose point totals equal that of the Raptors. Good on them for getting it done.
Julio Draft Grade: A

Lethbridge Lions

Lions got 4 monster rebuilds and a throwaway pick on Jay BoomBoom has netted them a gritty and well-loved steal of a defenseman. If they don’t go straight to the show, expect Lethbridge’s stock to rise.
Julio Draft Grade: A

St Louis

A great balanced draft. 2 rebuild studs, 1 rookie elite, and 1 rising depth player. On a deeper roster, these guys could be dangerous, but the scarecrows will have to work with what they have. Fingers crossed that these rookies don't dash for the SHL.
Julio Draft Grade: A

Anaheim Outlaws

Two big-time elites and two rising stars. Not sure why that particular drafting order, but it got the job done. A top two team right now, and for the foreseeable future with these drafting habits.
Julio Draft Grade: A

Kelowna Knights

The 3rd place team took just 3 players and plopped them on the 4th line together for a cute 5 minutes a night. Luckily it is just a sim and the battle for ice time isn't as soul-crushing as real life. 2 for 2 on these stallions, We’ll see if Votto updates again because he is in a good spot to succeed. These are the linemates the rookie tutorial tells you about.
Julio Draft Grade: B

Colorado Raptors

Drafted 2 of the top 3 safe picks (not sure about the order though), and then drafted for position, and stocked up on every depth winger with a J in the name that they could reach. Steal of the draft: SixNine.
Julio Draft Grade: B

Vancouver Whalers

Culture change! The GM’s didn’t draft a single rebuild. In4th place right now, it appears as if they are getting the job done and will have room to grow in the future. Duggan and Raanta have big futures (I’m guessing. This is all guessing).
Julio Draft Grade: C

Anchorage Armada

Picked some solid rising stars, but missed some bigger opportunities. Ford and Otter will be carrying the franchise soon.
Julio Draft Grade: C

Montreal Militia

At least you got Hagan, an easy elite. Not too many draft picks, but outside of Marc, this was not a growing year for the MIlitia.
Julio Draft Grade: D

Detroit Falcons

Sheesh. Outside of an underperforming Salo, an absolute grinder in Knutsen, this class lacks consistency. McButternutz embodied the media forums and discord for a month before dipping out for the “+3 World Class Training, +2 Activity check”. Maybe he had already purchased all of his equipment and what not, but maybe I just miss his presence on the S47 discord.
Julio Draft Grade: D

As usual, tell me what you disagree with. Personal attacks encouraged. Obviously, this is all just smoke and mirrors to draw away from my own underperformance. I'm really insecure about a lot of things and I'm the type of guy to spread rumors about someone else just to feed my insecurity. I heard that Harry Carpet used his real name as his player name because he wants to get doxxed because he's so lonely. I promised more charts, bit hate saving them and uploading them to host sites to and then link to here, so I just typed what I needed to. ill get some better colors going for the next ones. I hear there is a sneaky large colorblind contingency here. Do red and green work?

Sami · 03-08-2019, 04:29 AM

I love it. Lot of effort here, great work man. Please continue with these.

SecondSucks22 · 03-08-2019, 04:44 AM

I understood none of this but you said nice things about me, so i love it! Good job!

Flareon · 03-08-2019, 07:16 AM

03-08-2019, 04:19 AMJulio Tokolosh Wrote: Halifax’s overdrafted safe picks

Sorry, I can't hear you from the top of the table

***luke*** · 03-08-2019, 07:27 AM

Hey this is great work

Randominoe · 03-08-2019, 12:50 PM

Even though the activity part of that chart was kinda inaccurate or hard to explain, I love these kinds of posts and the data analysis that you and @"luketd" do. Keep it up guys it makes everything so much more fun and competitive!

*slothfacekilla* · 03-08-2019, 01:37 PM

Forgot to comment last article, but these are awesome and seem like a shitton of effort!

***SDCore*** · 03-08-2019, 02:00 PM

Hmmm, so recreates get a 9000-4000 activity level because of more years? Then should rookie activity over a smaller window be more weighted? Is this because rookies have more of a chance to go inactive? Either way, I'm curious to see how this looks in a season or two. Also, weighting points over everything is harder for some J teams than others and it weights offensive players over defensive players.

Also, how did you rate activity rate? Is it only based on posts on the forum? Shouldn't a player like Campin, who sims have a higher weight then?

Interesting data anyway, just want to know more about how you came to the numbers.

Julio Tokolosh · 03-08-2019, 04:15 PM

03-08-2019, 02:00 PMSDCore Wrote: Hmmm, so recreates get a 9000-4000 activity level because of more years? Then should rookie activity over a smaller window be more weighted? Is this because rookies have more of a chance to go inactive? Either way, I'm curious to see how this looks in a season or two. Also, weighting points over everything is harder for some J teams than others and it weights offensive players over defensive players.

Also, how did you rate activity rate? Is it only based on posts on the forum? Shouldn't a player like Campin, who sims have a higher weight then?

Interesting data anyway, just want to know more about how you came to the numbers.

you are correct in all of the points you've made.

first paragraph: the rookie activity should be a little bit weighted, and only against bottom tier rebuilds (who wouldnt hit the plateau of "he's been X active for Y seasons, definitely a safe pick"). And you are correct, points are BS like how corsi is a "better" tell than +/-, but it was an easy and attainable value. the "Vs Opponent" tab is kind of bare, so there isnt a great way to see who is playing protected minutes and who is grinding it out with the big boys. Ideally we'd want a chance for/against scale to balance out the Forwards/Defense. A player that is filling in on the 2nd pairing and playing hard minutes will have worse stats than a 4th line center with 1 assist, but I haven't figured out how to calculate that, so i took the easy road.

second paragraph: unfortunately forum activity is the only metric i had access to. if i were better/smarter/worked harder, I would make a plateau for rebuilds (around 500). i believe guys like campin (sim) and fourfour (media) should be rated higher than a good rebuild with less site responsibilites (cant think of an example), as their site duties bring them on every day, and they have a sense of commitment that they already give the site. they are that much less likely to get lazy with it for a few weeks.

***SDCore*** · 03-08-2019, 05:01 PM

Awesome. Thanks for the clarification. This is all great info.

I wish the sim had more advanced stats like possession or giveaways and takeaways, so D players had a little bit more reliable metrics, but we work with what we got.

TnlAstatine · 03-08-2019, 05:20 PM

03-08-2019, 01:37 PMslothfacekilla Wrote: Forgot to comment last article, but these are awesome and seem like a shitton of effort!

i'm waiting for a strict luffy vs sloth comparison article 2k + words

*slothfacekilla* · 03-08-2019, 05:55 PM

03-08-2019, 05:20 PMTnlAstatine Wrote:
03-08-2019, 01:37 PMslothfacekilla Wrote: Forgot to comment last article, but these are awesome and seem like a shitton of effort!

i'm waiting for a strict luffy vs sloth comparison article 2k + words

I might retire in the next day or so, so it better be soon

awils13 · 03-08-2019, 07:25 PM

Impressive work

*Otrebor13* · 03-08-2019, 09:44 PM

These articles are fantastic. I love the effort put in and measuring users against each other based on various metrics (although sometimes tough to do)is great. Really gives us a different aspect to look at, rather than the typical sim stats. Excellent work once again, I really enjoy your articles!

***hotdog*** · 03-09-2019, 04:54 PM

yoooo this is awesome keep this up JT

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