Season 46 SHL Point Shares
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![]() Registered S39 Challenge Cup Champion
Season 46 SHL Point Shares
Link to Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing ****This took hours of work so PLEASE give me a good bonus, not some bullshit like 500K that i could word vomit in 10 minutes**** Well, this is going to be a lot less interesting than I thought it would be in light of @aaronwilson's admittedly far more intriguing and valuable analysis where he pulled shots for, shots against, giveaway, takeaway, and more data from the play by plays, which has been something I've been super intrigued in for a while and thought was a virtual impossibility. That data is fucking huge for evaluating player performance and he deserves to be paid ridiculously, especially if he can provide the tool for use each season. However, I gotta pay the bills for training and equipment so I'm still going to share this wonderful analysis with the league... I was able to calculate offensive and defensive point shares for every player in the SHL using the same method as Hockey Reference, probably the best site for NHL statistics so check it out. Anyways, there are two different metrics calculated here - Offensive Point Shares and Defensive Point Shares. So now you may be asking what exactly a point share is. Point shares are essentially how many points in the standings a player contributed to his or her team through their play, further broken down into offensive and defensive point shares to account for different aspects of play. While it is far from a perfect estimation of player performance, it provides more context into the statistics made available to us in the SHL Index and thus becomes another tool to evaluate player performance and to compare players to each other. These statistics are also dependent on team performance, enabling us to better contextualize the value a player added over the course of a season. The higher a player's point share value, the more effective they played. Point shares can also be negative, meaning a player actually cost his or her team points. How to Calculate Offensive Point Shares Offensive Point Shares are much easier to calculate than Defensive Point Shares. Overall, it comes down to a player's marginal goals divided by marginal goals per point scored. But that probably means next to nothing to you. What the fuck is a marginal goal and what the fuck is a marginal goal per point scored? Yeah, it's confusing. So let's break this down... Offensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)
Marginal Goals Per Point Scored Marginal Goals Per Point Scored is a league-wide statistic that is the same throughout the entire league. It is used to help narrow down exactly how many points in the standing a marginal goal is worth... Stick with me because marginal goals are coming. Marginal goals are a player-based statistic. So, to calculated marginal goals per point scored: Marginal Goals Per Point Scored = (League Goals) / (League Points in Standings)
So a bit more clear, yeah? Or no. Either way... here is how it was calculated for the SHL in Season 46. I had to add up each team's goals scored to get league goals and add up each team's point in the standings to get league points. Simple. So... we get this: 2483 Goals / 880 Points = 2.82 Marginal Goals Per Point Scored
Marginal Goals Now we're on marginal goals. This is calculated for each player. The formula for marginal goals is: Marginal Goals = (Goals Created) – (7/12)*(Time on Ice)*((Goals Created by Skaters) / (Time on Ice for Skaters))
So this is confusing as hell, right? It essentially helps to normalize goals created by players by factoring in playing time and comparing all this information to the rest of the league. Anyways, first let’s take a look at goals created. It’s actually pretty simple. And now that we have primary and secondary assist numbers, this could actually be refined a bit further to give some more weight primary assists and less to secondary assists. Anyways, goals created is calculated as follows: Goals Created = (Goals Scored + Assists*0.5)*(Team Goals / (Team Goals + Team Assists*0.5))
There we have it. This required me to allocate the team statistics as well. Let’s take a look at an example of Poopity Scoop because why not feature my player in my article? And besides, he’s a fucking stud. So, let’s take a look at the information needed:
Now, we have everything. Time for some chug and plug. (4 + 31*0.5)*(184 / (184 + 321*0.5)) = 10.42 Goals Created
So now, let’s get back to marginal goals. For a refresher, the formula is the following: Marginal Goals = (Goals Created) – (7/12)*(Time on Ice)*((Goals Created by Skaters) / (Time on Ice for Skaters))
We now have goals created. Now we need Time on Ice, Goals Created by Skaters, and Time on Ice for Skaters. We can get this information from the spreadsheet so now we have this, which has all the necessary information to figure out Poopity Scoop’s Marginal Goals: Goals Created: 10.42 Time on Ice: 1218 mins Goals Created By Skaters: 2456.44 Time on Ice for Skaters: 238,118 mins Marginal Goals = (10.42) – (7/12)*(1218)*((2456.44) / (238118)) = 3.133
And now that we have Poopity Scoop’s marginal goals, we can easily find out his offensive point shares. See the calculation below: Offensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)
3.133 Marginal Goals / 2.82 Marginal Goals Per Point = 1.11 Offensive Point Shares
And there you have it. Offensive Point Shares were calculated in the same way for each player. Essentially, Offensive Point Shares are an attempt to better contextualize a player’s offensive output in relation to both the performance of the league as a whole and his or her team. How to Calculate Defensive Point Shares I hope you didn’t think Offensive Point Shares were confusing or difficult. If so, you’re really in for something here because Defensive Point Shares are even more complicated. However, you will see what they boil down to is quite similar, the difference being Offensive Point Shares involve marginal goals for while Defensive Point Shares involve marginal goals against. Thus, the formula for Defensive Point Shares can be seen below: Defensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals Against) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)
So there you have it. Marginal Goals Against, though. This is a fucking bitch and a half to calculate but let me show you because why the fuck not. I need cash and maybe one or two of you people will be interested in this and appreciate just how annoying it was to calculate it. Marginal Goals Against So, let’s look at the formula for marginal goals against. Now you get to see that all this bitching from me is justified, maybe even understating just how annoying this is. Then again, did I build something to parse through all the play by plays? Nahhh so maybe I should just shut up and take my money for doing something far less useful. Marginal Goals Against = (Proportion of Team Time on Ice) * (Proportion of team marginal goals against assigned to skaters) * (Position Adjustment) * (Team marginal goals against) + (Plus/Minus Adjustment)
Yeah. What in the actual fuck. So let’s break this down slowly and carefully. Let’s start with Proportion of Team Time on Ice. This one is simple enough. Proportion of Team Time on Ice = (Time on Ice) / (Sum of Team Time on Ice for All Skaters)
Let’s continue doing this for Poopity Scoop. So the information we can easily get from the index is his Time on Ice. To get the sum of team time on ice for skaters, we just sum all the time on ices for skaters on the team. Carefully note that doing this required me to take extra care of those players who were on multiple teams in a season. For both Offensive Point Shares and Defensive Point Shares, there were different calculations for their point share values on their different teams, which were then summer together. Anyways, for Poopity Scoop, we have the following: Time on Ice: 1218 Mins Sum of Team Time on Ice for Skaters: 14,957 Mins Proportion of Team Time on Ice = 1218 / 14,957 = 0.0814
So there we have it, nice. We’re like 5% of the way there to calculating Defensive Point Shares. Yeah, I calculated that number exactly also. I promise. Now for the “proportion of team marginal goals against assigned to skaters”. Yeah. Say that ten times fast. Fucking broken tongue shit right there. Anyways, this is calculated for each team rather than for each player. I’ll show you the formula below: Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters = (7-2*((Team Shots Against) / (League Team Shots Against Average))) / 7
So… let’s continue with Poopity Scoop and calculate this bitch of a statistic for the Minnesota Chiefs. The shots against totals were supposed to be shots against per minute but I wanted to simplify this a bit because, realistically, the margin of error is quite small that will only be slightly impacted by the number of OT games played by a team… which still will not be exact unless I go into the box scores to find out exactly how many minutes each OT game lasted. Yeah, no thanks. Team Shots Against: 1614 League Team Shots Against Average: 1578.8125 So now, we can calculation our Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters for the Chiefs. (7-2*((1614) / (1578.8125))) / 7
0.7079 = Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters We’re slowly getting there. Slowly. Maybe take a lunch break now and come back because we got some more annoying math coming up for you. And it will take plenty of brain power, maybe even grab your thinking caps before coming back. Okay, you’re back? Good. Hope your lunch was delicious because we got some work to do. We’re now on Team Marginal Goals Against. Here is a formula: Team Marginal Goals Against = (1 + (7/12)) * (Team Games) * (League Goals Per Game) - (Team Goals Against)
We’re going to calculate this for the Chiefs again. Here’s the variables that we need to figure this Team Marginal Goals Against out. Team Games: 50 League Goals Per Game: 3.1 Team Goals Against: 165 Annnnnd we can do some maths again! Here we gooooooo: Team Marginal Goals Against = (1 + (7/12)) * (50) * (3.1) - (165) = 80.417
Next up we got Plus/Minus Adjustment. This one is a real doozy and it’s done for each player, with separate calculations for defense or offense within each team just to complicate the hell out of things. It’s essentially done to give a relative plus/minus rating as this point share thing is all about normalizing statistics relative to a player’s team and position as much as possible to come up with some sort of approximation. Here is our formula: Plus/Minus Adjustment = (1/7) * (Position Adjustment) * ((Plus/Minus) – (Time on Ice) * ((Team Plus/Minus for Position) / (Team Time on Ice for Position)))
Wow. Anyways, you’ll see something interesting – the position adjustment. This is just a modifier for position – forward or defense. The value is 5/7 for forwards and 10/7 for defensemen to basically account for the fact that defensemen are more relied upon defensively. A very rough estimation of how much, though. It’s hard to quantify that, though, because it even depends based on player. I think maybe forwards are being a bit undervalued here now that I think about it, though. Oh well. Let’s do this for Poopity Scoop again. Our variables are: Position Adjustment: 10/7 Plus/Minus: 23 Time on Ice: 1218 Mins Team Plus/Minus for Position: 24 Team Time on Ice for Position: 5765 Mins And now for calculating Poopity Scoop’s Adjusted Plus/Minus: Plus/Minus Adjustment = (1/7) * (10/7) * ((23) – (1218) * ((24) / (5765)))
Plus Minus Adjustment = 3.659 Okay, okay, okay. We’re nearly here. Now we want to calculate the marginal goals against for the player. This is the next to last step! Congrats if you’ve made it here. If you have, comment “Thanks Baelor. Very cool” in the comments and I’ll uprep you for sure and maybe give you some sort of shoutout and tell you you’re great because you are! Anways, marginal goals against… Marginal Goals Against = (Proportion of Team Time on Ice) * (Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters) * (Position Adjustment) * (Team Marginal Goals Against) + (Plus/Minus Adjustment)
If you’ve been paying attention well, you’ll realize that we’ve done all this work already! That’s great news for you and me. But if you’re feeling lazy, let me put all these values in one place. You can refer above to how they were calculated in case you forget. Proportion of Team Time on Ice: 0.0814 Proportion of Team Marginal Goals Against Assigned to Skaters: 0.7079 Position Adjustment: 10/7 Team Marginal Goals Against: 80.417 Plus/Minus Adjustment: 3.659 So now… we can do the thing. We can calculate our Marginal Goals Against for Poopity Scoop. Marginal Goals Against = (0.0814) * (0.7079) * (10/7) * (80.417) + (3.659)
Marginal Goals Against = 10.282 And now… for the final trick. We can now calculate Poopity Scoop’s Defensive Point Shares. Defensive Point Shares = (Marginal Goals Against) / (Marginal Goals Per Point Scored)
Defensive Point Shares = 10.282 / 2.82 = 3.646 And there we have it! You now know how to calculate Offensive and Defensive Point Shares! You can find Total Point Shares by adding Offensive and Defensive Point Shares. Again, this is an estimation of how many points in the standings a player added to his or her team. And this value can be negative. Let’s take a look at our leaders. Total Point Shares F Bobby Watson ![]() F Terrance Nova ![]() F Dick Skillstedt ![]() F Viktor Marius ![]() F Teddy Cuddles ![]() F Luke Atmey ![]() D Jon Toner ![]() F Dani Forsberg ![]() D Ludwig Koch Schroder ![]() F Flacko Lagerfield :barracudas: - 6.70 As you can see, forwards are even a bit overrepresented. So maybe my statement on forward position adjustment being too low is wrong. Anyways, because of this, I want to also look at total point shares for defensemen. Total Point Shares - Defensemen D Jon Toner ![]() D Ludwig Koch Schroder ![]() D Toivo Kosonen ![]() D Tatu Makela ![]() D Tigole Bitties ![]() D Bob Bergen ![]() D Richard Physt ![]() D Ben Dover ![]() D GOD McZehrl ![]() D Jack Tanner ![]() Sooooo, let’s now take a look at Offensive and Defensive Point Shares. Going to break each down by positions. Offensive Point Shares - Forwards F Bobby Watson ![]() F Terrance Nova ![]() F Dick Skillstedt ![]() F Teddy Cuddles ![]() F Viktor Marius ![]() F Trevor Wilson ![]() F Luke Atmey ![]() F Flacko Lagerfield :barracudas: - 5.01 F Logan Jensen ![]() F Dani Forsberg ![]() Offensive Point Shares - Defensemen D Ludwig Koch Schroder ![]() D Tigole Bitties ![]() D Jon Toner ![]() D Ben Dover ![]() D The Dude ![]() D Sven Brokstad ![]() D Tor Tuck ![]() D Tatu Makela ![]() D Bob Bergen ![]() D Tig Murphy ![]() Defensive Point Shares - Forwards F Terrance Nova ![]() F Matthew Auston ![]() F Bobby Watson ![]() F Roman Augustus ![]() F Dani Forsberg ![]() F Dick Skillstedt ![]() F Joshua Woodcroft ![]() F Sophia Bennett ![]() F Crossfit Jesus ![]() F Viktor Marius ![]() Defensive Point Shares - Defensemen D Toivo Kosonen ![]() D Richard Physt ![]() D Jon Toner ![]() D Adam Kaiser ![]() D Geoff Moore ![]() D Tatu Makela ![]() D GOD McZehrl ![]() D Poopity Scoop ![]() D Bob Bergen ![]() D Ludwig Koch Schroder ![]() Now, let’s look at the players who are especially one-dimensional. For most offensively one-dimensional, players are ranked by the difference between Offensive Point Shares and Defensive Point Shares with a qualifier that Defensive Point Shares are below 1. For most defensively one dimensional, players are ranked by the difference between Defensive Point Shares and Offensive Point Shares with a qualifier that Offensive Point Shares are below 1. Most Offensively One Dimensional Forwards F Trevor Wilson ![]() F James Dekens ![]() F Florence Clijsters ![]() F Dayymo Ralchankinov ![]() F Alex Winters ![]() F Tony Pepperoni ![]() F Jeff Brogen ![]() F Eriks Skalbergs ![]() F Cash Savage :barracudas: - 2.79 OPS – 0.97 DPS F David Fantobens :barracudas: - 2.16 OPS – 0.52 DPS Most Offensively One Dimensional Defensemen D The Dude :rengades: - 2.51 OPS – 1.82 DPS D Sven Brokstad ![]() D Chippy Chiclets ![]() D Ben Dover ![]() D Tig Murphy ![]() D Nour Harrak ![]() D Tor Tuck ![]() D Liam O’Callaghan ![]() D Brady McIntyre ![]() D Barret MacCarthy ![]() Most Defensively One Dimensional Defensemen D Chuck Goody Jr. ![]() D Geoff Moore ![]() D Jean-Pierre Gay ![]() D Adam Kaiser ![]() D Shoyu Kikkoman :barracudas: - -0.82 OPS – 2.47 DPS D Nat Emerson ![]() D Maximillian Egger ![]() D Mikhaul Petrikov ![]() D Michael Owens :barracudas: - -0.84 OPS – 2.19 DPS D Svatoslav Bodnar ![]() Most Defensively One Dimensional Forwards F Daniel Smeb ![]() F Kyle Keenan Jr. ![]() F Mikkel Haugen ![]() F Steven Moyer ![]() F Paddy O’Sullivan ![]() F Rainbow Dash ![]() F Bernard Freeman ![]() F Kevin Kazarian ![]() F Ignatius Blunt ![]() F Jack Kennedy ![]() [b]Team Expected Points/b] Buffalo Stampede: 29.11 OPS | 27.96 DPS | 57.08 TPS Calgary Dragons: 16.06 OPS | 23.98 DPS | 40.04 TPS Chicago Syndicate: 14.67 OPS | 24.20 DPS | 38.87 TPS Edmonton Blizzard: 28.47 OPS | 20.78 DPS | 49.26 TPS Hamilton Steelhawks: 26.97 OPS | 19.82 DPS | 46.78 TPS Los Angeles Panthers: 22.03 OPS | 25.92 DPS | 47.95 TPS Manhattan Rage: 28.73 OPS | 22.32 DPS | 51.05 TPS Minnesota Chiefs: 32.40 OPS | 17.72 DPS | 50.13 TPS New England Wolfpack: 12.54 OPS | 20.89 DPS | 33.43 TPS New Orleans Specters: 20.95 OPS | 28.70 DPS | 49.64 TPS San Francisco Pride: 19.50 OPS | 24.56 DPS | 44.06 TPS Tampa Bay Barracudas: 19.69 OPS | 22.97 DPS | 42.66 TPS Texas Renegades: 25.05 OPS | 18.04 DPS | 43.09 TPS Toronto North Stars: 25.02 OPS | 24.75 DPS | 49.77 TPS Winnipeg Jets: 11.85 OPS | 18.98 DPS | 30.83 TPS West Kendall Platoon: 33.25 OPS | 22.71 DPS | 55.96 TPS ![]() Registered Posting Freak
I don't fully understand it but I like this a lot, any way to calculate it for SMJHL too?
![]() Registered S39 Challenge Cup Champion 03-25-2019, 01:30 AMaaronwilson Wrote: I don't fully understand it but I like this a lot, any way to calculate it for SMJHL too? It's basically a rough method for standardizing players' offensive and defensive contributions with limited statistics available. See the link here: https://www.hockey-reference.com/about/p...hares.html And yes, it can be calculated for the SMJHL. It's a lot of work so not sure I will do that lol but you can follow the procedure in the link above, in the OP, and the spreadsheet I posted that you can look at the formulas for clarification if anything isn't quite clear. ![]() Registered Senior Member
I'm one dimensional fasho. Lots of hours in this, much appreciated!
![]() 3 time Four Star Cup Champion S40-S42 S43 Jesster Trophy Nominee Winner Scored my first SHL goal in just my second SHL game. 2. Manhattan Rage , James Dekens 1 (Mikael Talo 1, Sigurd Hansen 1) at 18:39 ![]() Registered Posting Freak 03-24-2019, 10:36 PMBaelor Swift Wrote: Most Offensively One Dimensional Forwards What is defence? Player Page --- Update Page
![]() Picture credit to Allen, Jenny, enigmatic, Wasty, ckroyal92, 701, and EJ 300+ Career Goals, 750+ Career Points 5th All-Time Goals Scored for WKP, 8th All-Time Goals Scored for SEA/TBB 3rd All-Time in Playoff Points 17th All-Time in Goals 6 Consecutive 50+ Point Seasons, 7 Total Quote:"idc if ur naked if ur holding that cup" -Jenny ![]() IIHF Federation Head Too young for this shit
This is pretty interesting! I was surprised to find that my player (who I basically made to be as offensive as possible) isn’t as bad defensively as I thought.
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Registered Posting Freak ![]() Registered S39 Challenge Cup Champion 03-26-2019, 12:29 PMMavfatha Wrote: Spreadsheet starts out sorted alphabetically by first name, literally unusable I think you need to learn how to use google sheets before calling it unusable. Edit: Because I'm not an asshole and it may be helpful for those who may otherwise ask instead of calling it unusable without consulting with the one who made the spreadsheet or even conducting a simple google search... ![]() Registered stupid idiot ![]() Registered Posting Freak 03-26-2019, 01:12 PMBaelor Swift Wrote:03-26-2019, 12:29 PMMavfatha Wrote: Spreadsheet starts out sorted alphabetically by first name, literally unusable Woah sorry that was 100% sarcasm, my bad. This was an awesome project and I do understand how google sheets works/why it is sorted like that. ![]() Registered Posting Freak
@Baelor Swift
HEY BAELOR POOPITY SCOOP AYAYYAYYA OOGLEY BOOGLEY BOOPEDY DOO AYYAYYAYAYAYA NOOT NOOT ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() "Bring back Pingy Pingu Lunga Gumba esq. And I mean bring him all the way back. I want every thread on this forum that involves even a modicum of salt to get razed to the ground by our most notorious shitposting penguin. I want every thunderdome to drown in ABAGABA spam and a signature that doesn't end. I want the userbase of this fine league to cower in terror, slinking about the forums and making as little noise as possible for fear of attracting the Shitpost Slenderman. When some poor immigrant from the NFL sim blunders into the forum and makes an angry post about how his player slipped to the early second round despite having done ALL the rookie tasks(!), let the veteran survivalists stare in horror and pity while the newbie rages. They will know it is only a matter of time before @Pingy Pingu descends upon his post like a ravening wolf and obliterates his tread, reducing it to a radioactive waste-dump of unintelligible spam. They will not interfere, for Pingy is our immune system. Because he can take it. Our Dark Knight of Shitposting" ![]() ![]() Sig credit to @WannabeFinn @JSS @Mordaciious @Mayuu @TommySalami Falcons banner credit to @karey |
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