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Goalies New stat this season: Off.ZS%, you can read more about it here https://www.litterboxcats.com/2012/8/27/...rs-florida Mind you it's probably completely random in STHS. You can find what each stat means in the S47 article (skaters) and goalies First off, a little analysis on each team 1. ![]() Record: 28-12-10 Corsi: 48.42 (league rank – 13th) PDO: 1037 (1st) PP + PK: 94.66 (14th) I feel like whenever a goalie posts a sv% significantly above average, you can safely assume the team is overperforming. In S46 Blue carried Tampa to the playoffs with league-leading .919, then in S47 Blue regressed to the average and Tampa finished dead last. This season Tampa led the league in both 5v5sh% and 5v5sv%, resulting in an abnormally high PDO (higher than any team last season). S48 was a step in the right direction but based on numbers Tampa isn’t ready to contend just yet. Verdict: Bad + Lucky This isn’t supposed to take anything away from the incredible season this team had, and Lagerfield and Blue have very strong cases to win some individual awards. 2. ![]() Record: 30-15-5 Corsi: 54.69 (1st) PDO: 994 (11th) PP + PK: 106.60 (3rd) Not quite as dominant as last season but still great possession numbers, and good special teams. Once again more on the unlucky side but 6 points under 1000 is probably within normal variation. Verdict: Good 3. ![]() Record: 30-17-3 Corsi: 52.23 (3rd) PDO: 1012 (4th) PP + PK: 97.53 (11th) Good at 5 on 5, a bit more lucky than you’d expect but still this is easily a 60+ points team. Terrible on PK but WKP was one of the least penalized teams, so they only allowed 33 PKG which is middle of the pack. They also scored 40 PPG (most in the league), so overall Platoon did pretty well on special teams and the PP + PK ranking is deceiving. Verdict: Good + Lucky 4. ![]() Record: 29-19-2 Corsi: 49.29 (11th) PDO: 1014 (2nd) PP + PK: 99.39 (8th) Last season Winnipeg was a terrible team that was pretty close to making the playoffs thanks to some puck luck. This season once again they had some lucky sims, except this time it’s more like an average team, so Winnipeg finished with 60 points and won their division fairly easily. Verdict: Average + Lucky (this didn't age well) 5. ![]() Record: 28-19-3 Corsi: 50.94 (6th) PDO: 1001 (7th) PP + PK: 109.91 (1st) Above average team 5 on 5. High 5v5sh%, low 5v5sv% so overall Pride were neither lucky or unlucky. Special teams is where SFP really shined. They scored 36 PPG and allowed only 17 PKGA, for a difference of +19. Verdict: Above average + Great special teams 6. ![]() Record: 27-18-5 Corsi: 51.00 (5th) PDO: 996 (10th) PP + PK: 109.73 (2nd) Not elite but good corsi. League worst shooting % but Kryyst had a good season in net, so the PDO is pretty average. Same as SFP, neither lucky or unlucky. Incredible PP% but only 127 PP opportunities (3rd least in the league, for comparison Edmonton went 31 for 172 on PP). Top 3 in both PK% and PKGA. 59-60 points is right what you'd expect with these numbers Verdict: Above average + Great special teams 7. ![]() Record: 25-17-8 Corsi: 48.63 (12th) PDO: 1013 (3rd) PP + PK: 92.18 (15th) I think Toronto definitely overperformed. Bad and lucky 5 on 5. One of the worst special teams in the league, although worth noting that Toronto was the least penalized team, so they finished with +1 goal differential on special teams, and -1 overall. Verdict: Bad + Lucky + Bad special teams + Disciplined 8. ![]() Record: 27-19-4 Corsi: 53.00 (2nd) PDO: 998 (8th) PP + PK: 91.02 (16th) Buffalo got outscored by 14 goals on special teams which is the main reason they almost missed the playoffs. But for the third season in a row NOLA, WKP and BUF are the Big 3 of SHL, with all teams making the conference finals this time and with Buffalo eventually winning it all. Verdict: Good + Bad special teams 9. ![]() Record: 25-20-5 Corsi: 49.44 (10th) PDO: 986 (15th) PP + PK: 94.78 (13th) Last season Edmonton had the highest PDO, this time Simon wasn’t so kind. Basically the same corsi (below average) but the sh% declined from 11.28 to 9.37, sv% declined from 0.914 to 0.892 and special teams declined from 107.76 to 94.78. As I’ve mentioned Edmonton had the most PP opportunities among all teams, and perhaps that’s the reason they made the playoffs despite a -15 goal differential. Verdict: Below average + Unlucky + Bad special teams 10. ![]() Record: 24-19-7 Corsi: 51.58 (4th) PDO: 1005 (5th) PP + PK: 96.69 (12th) I’m a bit surprised Calgary didn’t finish higher in the standings. Yes, the PP was pretty mediocre and the PK was terrible but Dragons were good 5 on 5 their PDO is on the higher end too. Verdict: Good + Bad special teams 11. ![]() Record: 26-22-2 Corsi: 50.64 (7th) PDO: 1001 (6th) PP + PK: 99.34 (9th) Now we’ve reached non-playoff teams. NEW almost made it. The reason they didn’t? 126 PP opportunities (2nd fewest) and 172 PK opportunities (2nd most), resulting in a -11 goal differential on special teams. Verdict: Above average + Bad PPA – PKA difference 12. ![]() Record: 23-22-5 Corsi: 49.52 (11th) PDO: 996 (9th) PP + PK: 104.41 (4th) Slightly below average at even-strength and the 996 PDO didn’t help, although I can’t say they were unlucky. Good special teams but Texas had difficulties staying out of the penalty box, which is likely the reason they missed the playoffs. Verdict: Below average + Undisciplined 13. ![]() Record: 21-24-5 Corsi: 46.86 (15th) PDO: 990 (14th) PP + PK: 103.42 (5th) Syndicate were very bad 5 on 5 this season but they were also pretty unlucky. Verdict: Bad + Unlucky + Good special teams 14. ![]() Record: 20-24-6 Corsi: 47.45 (14th) PDO: 991 (13th) PP + PK: 100.32 (7th) Pretty much the same as Chicago, with slightly worse special teams. Verdict: Bad + Unlucky 15. ![]() Record: 20-29-1 Corsi: 46.84 (16th) PDO: 992 (12th) PP + PK: 100.65 (6th) Not surprising that the second last team finished with bad possession numbers but what stood out to me is LA went on the PP only 122 times (fewest in the league) and had to kill off 163 penalties (4th most). Verdict: Bad + Unlucky + Bad PPA – PKA differential 16. ![]() Record: 17-28-5 Corsi: 49.44 (9th) PDO: 971 (16th) PP + PK: 97.65 (10th) The reverse Tampa. Below average 5 on 5, mediocre special teams but Manhattan definitely was much better than the last place. Verdict: Below average + Unlucky Team stats *Green - made the playoffs PDO 1 ![]() 2 ![]() 3 ![]() 4 ![]() 5 ![]() 6 ![]() 7 ![]() ---------------------------------------------------- 8 ![]() 9 ![]() 10 ![]() 11 ![]() 12 ![]() 13 ![]() 14 ![]() 15 ![]() 16 ![]() CF% 1 ![]() 2 ![]() 3 ![]() 4 ![]() 5 ![]() 6 ![]() 7 ![]() ---------------------------------------------------- 8 ![]() 9 ![]() 10 ![]() 11 ![]() 12 ![]() 13 ![]() 14 ![]() 15 ![]() 16 ![]() 5v5sh% 1 ![]() 2 ![]() 3 ![]() 4 ![]() 5 ![]() 6 ![]() 7 ![]() 8 ![]() 9 ![]() 10 ![]() 11 ![]() 12 ![]() 13 ![]() 14 ![]() 15 ![]() 16 ![]() 5v5sv% 1 ![]() 2 ![]() 3 ![]() 4 ![]() 5 ![]() 6 ![]() 7 ![]() 8 ![]() 9 ![]() 10 ![]() 11 ![]() 12 ![]() 13 ![]() 14 ![]() 15 ![]() 16 ![]() ---------------------------------------------------------- Skater leaderboards CF% (min. 800 shot attempts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() RelCF (min. 800 shot attempts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() IPPEV (min. 20 points) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() Primary assists 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() Secondary assists 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() PDO (min. 250 shots on goal for + against) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() Steals (defensemen) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() Steals (forwards) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() Turnovers (defensemen) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() Turnovers (forwards) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() STL/TO (defensemen, min. 800 steals + turnovers) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() STL/TO (forwards, min. 700 steals + turnovers) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 10) ![]() P60 (forwards, min. 30 points) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() P60 (defensemen, min. 18 points) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() ---------------------------------------------------------- Goalie stats Averages: SV% = 0.905 EVSV% = 0.907 PKSV% = 0.896 PPSV% = 0.909 Quality starts (QS) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() 12) ![]() 13) ![]() 14) ![]() 15) ![]() 16) ![]() QS% (min 20 total starts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() 12) ![]() 13) ![]() 14) ![]() 15) ![]() 16) ![]() 17) ![]() Really bad starts (RBS) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() RBS% (min 20 total starts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() 12) ![]() 13) ![]() 14) ![]() 15) ![]() 16) ![]() 17) ![]() Goals saved above average (GSAA, min 20 starts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() 12) ![]() 13) ![]() 14) ![]() 15) ![]() 16) ![]() 17) ![]() Adjusted GAA (min 20 starts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() 12) ![]() 13) ![]() 14) ![]() 15) ![]() 16) ![]() 17) ![]() EVSV% (min 400 save attempts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() 12) ![]() 13) ![]() 14) ![]() 15) ![]() 16) ![]() 17) ![]() PKSV% (min 100 save attempts) 1) ![]() 2) ![]() 3) ![]() 4) ![]() 5) ![]() 6) ![]() 7) ![]() 8) ![]() 9) ![]() 10) ![]() 11) ![]() 12) ![]() 13) ![]() 14) ![]() 15) ![]() 16) ![]() 17) ![]() ![]() Registered CCII fan club
I think its a stretch to call 1012 PDO lucky (If that's what you are referring to with WKP). One standard deviation of PDO this season is just over 15 (considering this a random sample, which isn't necessarily appropriate but near enough). That means that in almost a third of results would have a PDO of 1012 or higher (that's not particularly lucky, just slightly luckier than average. (This is all approximating PDO to a normal which again I shouldn't be doing because the sample size is small, but I cba to look up last seasons results soooo you're just gonna have to deal with it...) The point is, Tampa's PDO is lucky (99.16 percentile lucky), but WKPs is just slightly above average...
![]() ![]() Thanks to @Carpy48 , @sköldpaddor, @Weretarantula, @Bruins10 and @Wasty for sigs Extra special thanks to @Julio Tokolosh for the sick gif one ![]() Simmer Simmer ![]() Registered Posting Freak
@"aaronwilson" Does analytics have any explanation for Gagnier and Owens of the Barracuda other than "Shit be wack, yo."
![]() Former Agent of Nick Brain: Center/Right Winger - ![]() ![]() ![]() Registered Certified Swiss Cheese ![]() Registered Posting Freak 07-26-2019, 05:48 PMFordyford Wrote: I think its a stretch to call 1012 PDO lucky (If that's what you are referring to with WKP). One standard deviation of PDO this season is just over 15 (considering this a random sample, which isn't necessarily appropriate but near enough). That means that in almost a third of results would have a PDO of 1012 or higher (that's not particularly lucky, just slightly luckier than average. (This is all approximating PDO to a normal which again I shouldn't be doing because the sample size is small, but I cba to look up last seasons results soooo you're just gonna have to deal with it...) The point is, Tampa's PDO is lucky (99.16 percentile lucky), but WKPs is just slightly above average... The standard deviation is not gonna be high because almost every team finishes in the 990..1100 range, true. But based on my experience with STHS I expect every team to have a PDO between 995 and 1005, and I consider values outside that range lucky/unlucky and unsustainable. The same works in NHL too. I think Tampa was abnormally lucky this season, WKP was luckier than expected but still lucky. 07-26-2019, 07:15 PMStadiumGambler Wrote: @"aaronwilson" Does analytics have any explanation for Gagnier and Owens of the Barracuda other than "Shit be wack, yo." Neither contributed offensively and both were pretty bad at suppressing shot attempts. But Barracuda's goalies had a very high SV% when they were on the ice (.937 and .930 respectively), hence the good +/-. Maybe they were good at limiting high-danger shots but there is no shot location data in STHS unfortunately, and I think that's highly unlikely anyway. So carried by @"BoucherFan12", pretty much. ![]() Registered CCII fan club 07-27-2019, 06:04 PMaaronwilson Wrote:07-26-2019, 05:48 PMFordyford Wrote: I think its a stretch to call 1012 PDO lucky (If that's what you are referring to with WKP). One standard deviation of PDO this season is just over 15 (considering this a random sample, which isn't necessarily appropriate but near enough). That means that in almost a third of results would have a PDO of 1012 or higher (that's not particularly lucky, just slightly luckier than average. (This is all approximating PDO to a normal which again I shouldn't be doing because the sample size is small, but I cba to look up last seasons results soooo you're just gonna have to deal with it...) The point is, Tampa's PDO is lucky (99.16 percentile lucky), but WKPs is just slightly above average... Tampa was very lucky (as I said, absurdly lucky). Im just saying WKP's number, while not necessarily consistently sustainable was hardly a shock (They had a much better PDO last season, for example, which was). 1012 is.... good, but not unusual. In fact, since S25 as far as I can see there hasnt been a single season without at least one team above 1012, and in most seasons its between 2-5. It's definitely not an unreasonably high value. ![]() ![]() Thanks to @Carpy48 , @sköldpaddor, @Weretarantula, @Bruins10 and @Wasty for sigs Extra special thanks to @Julio Tokolosh for the sick gif one ![]() Registered Patron Saint of the SMJHL
Yey, I'm number one in something!
MWHazard Wrote:i'll playwith anyone Justice,Sep 18 2016, 02:09 PM Wrote:4-0 and 0-4 aren't that different tbh McJesus - Today at 10:38 PM Wrote:FIRE EGGY ![]() ![]() |
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