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*fishy* · 08-23-2019, 06:30 PM

Good to be graded

An In-Depth Look at Each Team's Third Line

As a current third liner who's beginning to find his footing, I thought I would look into how each team's third line is performing relative to other third lines, as well as on an individual basis. At the bottom is a screenshot of each third line on each team, as well as some stats that will be discussed further.

The stats I have taken into consideration and I deem to be most important is this breakdown are:
goals/assists/points, average minutes per game, points per 20 minuts, TPE, as well as an mean TPE for each line.

General Breakdown

7 players are capped out
4 are between 300-350
11 are between 200-300
9 are below 200
16 are rookies

Average Line Strength (1-10)

347.33 TPE: Anchorage
342.33 TPE: Detroit
302.67 TPE: Vancouver
296 TPE: Halifax
256.33 TPE: Anaheim
221.67 TPE: Kelowna
221 TPE: Colorado
193.67 TPE: Montreal
193 TPE: Lethbridge
187.33 TPE: St. Louis

With this in mind, the third lines of Anchorage, Detroit, Vancouver, and Halifax, should produce similar to one another, while thoroughly outproducing Kelowna to St. Louis. Anaheim, with a middling TPE, should fall somewhere in the middle.

Line Production- Points (TPE Ranking in red)

Vancouver (3): 56 points
Detroit (2): 53 points
Anchorage (1): 47 points
Halifax (4): 45 points
Montreal (8): 34 points
Anaheim (5): 31 points
Colorado (7): 28 points
Kelowna (6): 21 points
Lethbridge (9): 15 points
St. Louis (10): 14 points

Some takeaways

This went as expected, as the stronger lines outproduce the weaker lines.
Anchorage is slightly lagging behind where their production should be, especially since this line receives the second highest amount of ice time (28%) compared to their peers
High-flying 1 seed Detroit's third line has produced the most points so far
Kelowna's third line, with 3 rookies, is lagging behind where they are expected to be
Vancouver is 1st with a center with only 3 points, imagine if the third member of the line begins to produce?
Halifax is 4th with 45 points with a member that has only managed 1 assist so far

So, can they play both ways? Looking at +/-

Combined +24: Detroit
Combined +5: Montreal
Combined -3 (tie): Colorado
Combined -3 (tie): Kelowna
Combined -12: Anchorage
Combined -18: St. Louis
Combined -19: Anaheim
Combined -25: Halifax
Combined -26: Vancouver
Combined -37: Lethbridge

Takeaways

Teams with rough 3rd-line point production (St. Louis/Kelowna/Colorado) may have their 3rd lines play more defensively-responsible hockey, as shown by their average-above average +/- results.
High point-producing lines, such as Vancouver and Halifax may have their 3rd lines pushing offense constantly
Lethbridge's 3rd line can neither score or keep the puck out of their own net

Point producers

gray 31
kyllonen 22
reider 22
spanish 22
fouquette 20
jones 20
anazibf 17
kerr 16
zvejnieks 16
bombay 15
fiddler 15
bobby 14
peralta 13
petrov 13
maclean 11
patey 11
eriksson 9
urawa 9
hernadivic 8
barbashev 6
Last name 6
shepard 6
strudwick 5
weston 5
jokinen 3
weiser 3
fuhrberg 2
vanice 2
dangelchek 1
krashwagen 1

Advanced STATS OOOOOOO

Here I'd thought to look at each of the 30 individual players that make up the SMJHL's third lines on a P/20 minute basis.

Gray: 1.08 p/20 min - Van
Anazibf: 0.88 p/20 min - Det
Kyllonen: 0.87 p/20 min - Hfx
Fouquette: 0.86 p/20 min - Det
Rieder: 0.75 p/20 min - Van
Bobby: 0.74 p/20 min - Mtl
Spanish: 0.73 p/20 min - Hfx
Jones: 0.72 p/20 min - Anc
Zvejnieks: 0.69 p/20 min - Det
Peralta: 0.64 p/20 min - Col
Fiddler: 0.63 p/20 min - Mtl
Kerr: 0.6 p/20 min - Anc
Petrov: 0.55 p/20 min - Ana
Urawa: 0.55 p/20 min - Col
Patey: 0.5 p/20 min - Leth
Maclean: 0.49 p/20 min - Anc
Bombay: 0.48 p/20 - Ana
Eriksson: 0.43 p/20 min - Kel
Hernadivic: 0.41 p/20 min - StL
Last Name: 0.33 p/20 min - Col
Barbashev: 0.29 p/20 min - Kel
Shepard: 0.29 p/20 min - Kel
Weston: 0.25 p/20 min - Mtl
Vanice: 0.23 p/20 min - Leth
Strudwick: 0.21 p/20 min - StL
Jokinen: 0.15 p/20 min - Ana
Weiser: 0.15 p.20 min - Van
Fuhrberg: 0.11 p/20 min - Leth
Dangelchek: 0.05 p/20 - StL
Krashwagen: 0.05 p/20 - Hfx

Takeaways

Vancouver's Gray, Detroit's Anazibf, and Halifax's Kyllonen have been the 3 best third line players, putting up the most points/20 min rates of the 30 total players
Fuhrberg, Dangelchek, and Krashwagen have all had some terribly shitty puck luck.
Fouquette has been carried by Anazibf at this point of the season.

Overachievers
Some people who might be doing a little too much with their minutes

Detroit's Fouquette, who is currently sporting a 22.22 shooting percentage, could see his goal output fall in the second half of the season as that number will be hard to sustain.
Montreal's Fiddler, ranked 27th in TPE, currently has 15 points, good for 10th in the league. He may experience a decrease in production as the numbers level out.
Lethbridge's Patey, 26th in TPE, but with 11 points, may also regress to the mean.

Underachievers
Players who for some reason aren't producing?

Anchorage's Maclean, a capped out player, has struggled, putting up only 11 points with a 6.78 shooting % and a -7. Can he bounce back?
Dangelchek, Krashwagen, Fuhrberg and Vanice have put up a combined 6 points, and are currently -37. How do these rookies respond to adversity?

Sleepers
People who may produce more with more PT

Hernadivic - StL - Driving his line with P/20 rates double his closest linemate, Hernadivic has shaken off a slow start to the season and began to produce lately.
Eriksson - KEL - Respectable Point outputs, respectable +/- (-1), this rookie has played the least amount of minutes on his line, but has done well with what he's received.
Peralta - COL - 13 points, -1, with a mediocre shooting percentage. Peralta hasn't quite driven play on his line, but with Urawa a regression candidate (18.42 shot %), Peralta could see his importance to the team increase quite quickly.

I'll do another one of these at the end of the season to see how Hernadivic and the other third liners did compared to one another. There's a lot more I could do too like see which lines should get more/less PT, who's weighing the lines down, stuff like that, maybe I'll add that stuff at the end of season report as I should actually do some work.

Note that lines were taken based off of each team's line breakdown on the sim as of August 23, 2019.

All stats were taken after August 23rd's sims.

Not the nicest/cleanest of work but hopefully it'll be of interest to some of you fellas out there (1304 words, good to be graded)

Scarecrows

nour · 08-23-2019, 08:29 PM

you heard it here first folks im amazing

**First GM in SMJHL history to win 3 Four Star Cups back-to-back-to-back**

Naosu · 08-23-2019, 09:00 PM

Great read as a fellow third liner.

Waters · 08-23-2019, 09:57 PM

08-23-2019, 08:29 PMnour Wrote: you heard it here first folks im amazing

carried by Fouquette imo

Waters · 08-23-2019, 09:58 PM

gray got like 15 points on the powerplay so i think he shouldnt be on here imo bump me up to top 3

***Gwdjohnson*** · 08-24-2019, 10:07 AM

08-23-2019, 09:58 PMWaters Wrote: gray got like 15 points on the powerplay so i think he shouldnt be on here imo bump me up to top 3

How did gray do in the prospect showcase?

Edit: looked it up. Gray had 23 points in 23 games across his whole tournament, while Fouquette in his tourney got 35 points in 26 games. Clearly Jagger has to be bumped above Gray...

*fishy* · 08-24-2019, 11:28 AM

@nour @Gwdjohnson @Waters @Naosu thanks for reading fellas hope it was understandable + worthwhile. Also, see Fouquette's shooting %, the jury expects some regression.

Whikadoodle · 08-24-2019, 11:35 AM

Third line > First Line. Don't @ me

***Gwdjohnson*** · 08-24-2019, 12:16 PM

08-24-2019, 11:28 AMjfisherr Wrote: @nour @Gwdjohnson @Waters @Naosu thanks for reading fellas hope it was understandable + worthwhile. Also, see Fouquette's shooting %, the jury expects some regression.

No prob, I'm a big fan of statistical analyses for media, and enjoy reading them a lot. It adds a bit of life to the games when they're otherwise just a sheet of text.

Waters · 08-24-2019, 01:37 PM

08-24-2019, 11:28 AMjfisherr Wrote: @nour @Gwdjohnson @Waters @Naosu thanks for reading fellas hope it was understandable + worthwhile. Also, see Fouquette's shooting %, the jury expects some regression.

i actually expect progression because im currently on pace to finish with the same point total as my rookie season which was mostly done with 100-150 less tpe

nour · 08-24-2019, 02:31 PM

08-24-2019, 11:28 AMjfisherr Wrote: @nour @Gwdjohnson @Waters @Naosu thanks for reading fellas hope it was understandable + worthwhile. Also, see Fouquette's shooting %, the jury expects some regression.

it was a great read, really in depth stuff, awesome work!