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*puolivalmiste* · 08-27-2019, 06:42 PM

So I took look on where I stand compared to other rookies and found out I have 8th highest TPE, 13 points behind first place. Thanks for reading (28 words).

[Edit] I mean I took look on activity and TPE gain of S50 rookies all for unselfish reasons, and for science.

I considered anyone who had created his account on July or August 2019 a first generation player. Activity is bit harder to measure but I went with lowest possible and looked at when last they had been online as it means that there was at least some interest for SHL even tho they might not know what to do. I gathered data on 25th of august and anyone online after 15th was counted as active, for people that had hidden their activity I checked when they last posted. So TPE averages numbers for active rookies would be higher if activity would require doing AC, PT, update, training or all mentioned.

All player data is taken from every teams own forum and all the players counted for this might not be in teams active roster anymore, but at least active ones should be pretty accurate.

So lets first take a look at how teams drafted and later signed free agents.

Number of rookies in team:
Anaheim Outlaws 10
Anchorage Armada 8
Colorado Raptors 10
Detroit Falcons 3
Halifax Raiders 6
Kelowna Knights 8
Lethbridge Lions 14
Montreal Militia 13
St. Louis Scarecrows 11
Vancouver Whalers 6

[Image: 7T746bS.png]

So here we have 3 bars for all teams and for SMJHL in general. First one (blue) shows how many of teams rookies are first generation players and second (orange) shows us how many of teams rookies are active, these both are compared to total number of rookies. Third (yellow) bar shows how many of those first generation rookies were active, so it compares number of active first generation rookies to number of first generation rookies not all rookies, meaning they cannot compared directly to other lines (Lethbridge doesn't have more active first gen rookies than first gen rookies in total, just shows that out of that 57,1% of first gen 75% are still active, meaning out of their new players about 42,8% are active first generation rookies). But you can compare yellow bar between teams to see who has been able to keep their new players around.

Outlaws, Raiders and Whalers all took only first generation players while Lions and Knights took safer route by drafting quite high number of recreates and Detroit took very low number of rookies in general which has been working well for them so far.

To me it looks like Colorado either had great drafting or they made sure their new players stay active by having a good locker room. Vancouver's numbers are not too far behind.

Kelowna is looking like their drafting of new players is lacking but when we look at TPE averages later it shows they were able to find some great rookies.

Currently in any teams roster there are total of 89 players out of which 80,9% were first gen and out of those 68,1% are still active. So latest draft resulted in 49 more or less active first generation players and total active players of S50 class currently sitting at 66.

[Image: NQYgQ8I.png]

Next we shall look at on which positions were most popular. Defense was most popular position with relatively small difference to other skaters but it does not take long to notice that almost two thirds are forwards, all marked with blue, while Centers and Right Wings are bit more popular we have quite even distribution within forwards. If we would be making teams with just rookies we would have about 5 teams with 4 full lines of forwards, 2 pairs of defenders and a goalie, with few extra players for every position.

If demand for all positions is about same being bit low on defensemen might increase their draft stock as there won't be as many good defenders to pick from.

[Image: W5DaAKo.png]

Now we get to take a look at what TPE levels S50 rookies were on Monday august 26th. Line shows us number of players within 10 TPE range. For example we have 11 players between 230-239 TPE.

This graph has both active and inactive players in it and looking at 155 line it's pretty clear that most of those players are and were inactive almost from the start. Inactive TPE average is about 168 so some of them went inactive after week or two.

But most active players are above 180 TPE and beyond that players are quite evenly spaced expect slight concentration of players around 235 TPE just behind top 5 of class.

[Image: Nhmnytp.png]

Here we have TPE averages of every team (blue bar), average TPE of all first generation players (orange) and average TPE for recreates (yellow). All these numbers count inactive players.

We can see that S50 TPE average is at 200,2 and for first generation players 193,9 which both are well behind recreate average of 227,0. This is mostly caused by recreates being active and already knowing what they are doing, most of them also started with more cash that let them buy all equipment for that extra 20 TPE. Most teams also have relatively low number of recreates meaning that one very active recreate pushes average to quite high.

Noticeable exception to this difference between recreates and first generation players is Anchorage with their league leading 210,3 TPE average for first generation players and below average recreate TPE of 211.

Anaheim, Halifax and Vancouver only have two bars with equal value because they didn't have any recreates. Vancouver has second highest 1st generation TPE average, while other 2 are under league average.

St.Louis 1st generation TPE average is pushed down by their low activity within first generation players. Yet Lethbridge has lowest, if we ignore Detroit as their sample size is so small that drawing any conclusions from these graphs is very hard, even tho their first gen activity was 3rd best in league with 75%.

But I think graph bellow will be one that actually gives us best idea how teams are doing.

[Image: 2Qxtaxx.png]

First in blue we have TPE average of whole team, same as last graph, that helps us compare differences. Then we have (orange/red) TPE average of all active rookies, first gen and recreate combined. Last bar (yellow) is one I was interested most myself, as first generation player, it tells us average TPE of active first generation rookies.

These bars can be directly compared to earlier graph. So you can see that while league average for active first generation rookies is 205,8 it is still lot lower than 227,0 of recreates (who were all active). Also as sidenote that is not shown on graphs, inactive rookie TPE average is currently 168,5.

Anchorage and St.Louis both have their active first generation players overtaken their recreates showing that even tho they might have advantage in experience and money you can still keep up with hard work.

As our first graph showed us Kelowna has had pretty low activity rate with their first generation players but ones that have been staying active are pushing to top resulting in league high 224,0 TPE average for their first generation players, almost as high as recreate TPE average of SMJHL.

Lethbridge has so high number of rookies that it is very likely that their numbers are pushed down by some low activity players that are still visiting site but not gaining much TPE.

But as I said Björn Leppänen was 8th highest TPE currently, so let's take look at who top 11 players currently are:

1st. 250 TPE, Bobby Lane @Rich, Montreal Militia, Recreate
2nd. 246 TPE, Henrik Lekberg Osterman @Thatguy91, Colorado Raptors, 1st Generation
3rd. 245 TPE, Ryan Shepard @Naosu, Kelowna Knights, 1st Generation
3rd. 245 TPE, Akira Ren @Velevra, Lethbridge Lions, Recreate
5th. 244 TPE, Vorian Atreides @OrbitingDeath, Colorado Raptors, Recreate
6th. 242 TPE, Adam Barron @charlieconway, Halifax Raiders, 1st Generation
7th. 240 TPE, Disisde Dayudie @スウェグキング, Lethbridge Lions, Recreate
8th. 237 TPE, Björn Leppänen @puolivalmiste, Vancouver Whalers, 1st Generation
9th. 236 TPE, Gylfi Eriksson @pazuzu15, Kelowna Knights, Recreate
9th. 236 TPE, Ricky Bobby @ImASurvivor, Montreal Militia, 1st Generation
9th. 236 TPE, Phineas Gold @Z0REM, Montreal Militia, 1st Generation

Now that we are comparing TPE of single players compared to each other there are many factors to consider. Not all players get updated same time, so someone might have time to claim one more PT or AC for this update that they will be missing from next one or maybe there were 4 post game show posts that were waiting grading since thursday but were not graded and that resulted in lower TPE for some players.

So does this list mean that anyone not on it should just skip the race for 1k TPE? I don't think so, as explained above there are many factors to consider when looking peoples TPE, some of those people will go inactive sooner or later, not really expecting to myself to being active all the way to 1k TPE for example. There were 18 players that had TPE at 230 or higher and 46 players that had 200 or higher, so with dedication anyone at least close to 230, who stays active should still be able to catch up.

Just for my own amusement I also checked what would be cutoff points for SHL draft's first three rounds if it was only based on current TPE, first round (top 16) would be 250 to 231 TPE, second round would be 231 to 212 TPE and third round would be from 212 to 199 TPE.

(1622 words and some research)

*slothfacekilla* · 08-27-2019, 06:57 PM

Great stuff!

Naosu · 08-27-2019, 07:01 PM

Nice read. Got me to do a double take on my TPE thinking I missed something.

*thiefofcheese* · 08-27-2019, 07:04 PM

Very cool!

***luke*** · 08-27-2019, 07:10 PM

very nice work. One slight critique from me, is that for the graph of TPE distribution of S50 Rookies, I would put that in a Histogram instead, as for me, I can see the distribution clearer.

NONAME · 08-27-2019, 07:12 PM

killing it

*puolivalmiste* · 08-27-2019, 07:19 PM

08-27-2019, 07:10 PMluketd Wrote: very nice work. One slight critique from me, is that for the graph of TPE distribution of S50 Rookies, I would put that in a Histogram instead, as for me, I can see the distribution clearer.

Tried it and I agree. So there it is, just as it has always been.

BrewskyBoy · 08-27-2019, 07:51 PM

This is pretty cool, nicely done!

***luke*** · 08-27-2019, 07:55 PM

08-27-2019, 07:19 PMpuolivalmiste Wrote:
08-27-2019, 07:10 PMluketd Wrote: very nice work. One slight critique from me, is that for the graph of TPE distribution of S50 Rookies, I would put that in a Histogram instead, as for me, I can see the distribution clearer.

Tried it and I agree. So there it is, just as it has always been.

also pro-tip, if you have their Positions + TPE, what you could do is put them on a graph from highest TPE to lowest TPE and talk about who is leading, who are the 1st gens and who are the recreates for more words as well