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***boom*** · 03-08-2020, 04:17 PM

[1359 words, ready for grading]

(obvious disclaimer that I do not work for an SMJHL team's head office and this is all speculation, don't ban me pls)

With the SMJHL draft approaching and the rosters becoming more clear with some players getting the long-awaited call to the majors, I thought I'd take a look at one position in particular around the teams in the league. Goalies are a fascinating thing because there's a limited amount of them and it can be hard to fill the positions, especially since rookie newcomer goaltenders can be a bit of a crapshoot as to whether they stick around or not. This piece will cover the teams that may have goalies available on the block, teams that need help in net, and what's available in the draft so far.

First, let's look at the trade market. The goalie depth charts for teams that I used to write this piece exclude goalies that have been confirmed to be called up for the next SHL season, a group consisting so far of Ian Venables, Luca Del Vecchio and White Goodman.

Teams That Could Move Goalies

Carolina Kraken
Mike Hroch: 425 TPE, 3 seasons accrued, active, owned by the New England Wolfpack
Frans Eller: 290 TPE, 1 season accrued, active, recreate automatically going to the New England Wolfpack

After rumours that he would make the jump to the SHL next year, Mike Hroch recently announced via Twitter that he would be staying with the Kraken for another season. With other teams needing goalies, this raises the question of whether Carolina could possibly consider moving him for the right price. While he has a higher TPE than first-year recreate Frans Eller going into this season, Carolina lost a few top pieces in the offseason, has no early picks in this upcoming draft, and may need to retool a bit to make another run. If they play their cards right, Hroch would be a very strong one-season rental goalie for another team while the Kraken could acquire some draft picks or younger players to build a top Four Star Cup contender in a season or two around their young players like Jimmy Wagner, standout recreate defenseman Ambacas Cuddles, Eller, and others. The only downside to Hroch's trade value is that he's currently in debt and hasn't produced a media piece in almost four months, so any team wanting to acquire him would likely have to be aware of this.

Colorado Raptors
Samat Beibitzhanov: 399 TPE, 2 seasons accrued, active, owned by the Manhattan Rage
Jerry Huuveri: 266 TPE, 1 season accrued, active, draft-eligible

This one isn't quite as clear-cut, but it is pretty interesting to see. Both goalies are young, active, have a good-but-not-great bank account, and put up strong statistical performances this season, so if the Raptors wanted a bell-cow starter they couldn't go wrong with either option. Beibitzhanov is the older goalie, but Manhattan's starter, Peter Larson, has over 1250 TPE and is still three years away from beginning regression and their backup, while old, has over 800 TPE, so Beibitzhanov isn't likely to make the jump soon. Unlike Hroch, who would be a pure rental, either of these goalies would likely be a strong starter for at least a couple seasons. Colorado's main motivation is one of restocking the cupboards; their three best defensemen are all gone next season and Bradley Barkov is the new #1D for the Raptors. Colorado has all of their picks except a second-rounder, but grabbing some extra picks to help refill the defense while improving their mediocre offense as well wouldn't go amiss.

Teams That Need A Goalie

Newfoundland Berserkers
Steven Vassallo: 287 TPE, 3 seasons accrued, inactive
Ryan Aaron: 184 TPE, 1 season accrued, inactive

Questionable goaltending helped sink the Berserkers in the playoffs, and it's probably not going to improve next season with these two. To their credit, Newfoundland management identified goaltending as a need in the draft and picked up Ryan Aaron, and he initially showed promise by updating and posting a great first graphic that became his signature. Unfortunately, he didn't stick and fell inactive, so the Berserkers will probably be going back to the well for another goalie this year. They do have some options as to how best to fill this hole, as Newfoundland has two second, third and fourth-round picks in this upcoming draft that they could use to grab the goalie they want, or the picks could be flipped to another team for an established option. As Newfoundland doesn't have the pieces to contend next season, my guess would be that they either draft a goalie or target one of Colorado's two.

St. Louis Scarecrows
Elizabeth Doyle: 610 TPE, 3 seasons accrued, active, recreate, owned by the Buffalo Stampede
Jason Voorhees: 169 TPE, 1 season accrued, inactive

Fresh off a Four Star Cup finals appearance, the Scarecrows are now facing impending goalie trouble. While veteran Elizabeth Doyle is the unquestioned starter, she's already played a couple games for the SHL's Buffalo Stampede, and with Stampede starter Cedric Robinson beginning to regress this is like Doyle's last season before jumping to the big leagues. The Scarecrows knew this and took a shot on a future goalie in the last draft with Jason Voorhees, but he didn't stick around. The Scarecrows still have a strong roster and one more season of Doyle to make plans for life after her, but picking up a project goalie to develop for next season is a near certainty, if not spending a high pick to ensure they get it right.

Vancouver Whalers
Joe Simpson: 180 TPE, 1 season accrued, inactive

With White Goodman leaving for Texas in the offseason, the Whalers are staring goaltending hell straight in the face. Goodman's incredible last season with a goals-against average of 2.58 and a .905 save percentage was the main reason why Vancouver were as good as they were, and he'll be gone. The Whalers took a flyer on a mid-round goalie named Joe Simpson, who didn't do much of anything before falling inactive. Additionally, defenseman Mikas Bieksa has aged out, and the team's best defenseman in Zlatan Ibrahimovic Jr. is either gone next year or entering his last season as a Whaler. Vancouver still has some great skaters with two-year pillars Sven Yxskaft and Sabo Tage on defense along with a smattering of fourth- and fifth-year veteran options up front in Francois Breton, Marcus Ohlsson, Stracimir Petrovic, and others. With a strong goalie, the Whalers could be dangerous next season. Unfortunately, this is where the awful S52 draft class comes in, as most of the pieces up front that were brought in through the last draft never developed. Vancouver's biggest hurdle to trying to trade for a goalie is their lack of draft capital, as the Whalers have no extra picks and don't own a third-round selection. Several holes up front still need to be filled, and selling the farm for goaltending help this season may not be the best long-term decision.

What's in the draft?

Right now, there are only two goalies created for the upcoming SMJHL draft, and one is an inactive who seems unlikely to be much of a factor at all, so we'll focus on the other one: a goalie named Cale Amundsen, and this is a guy that teams will be tripping over themselves to draft. Amundsen is the third player of a veteran user named Wally, and both of his previous players were goalies. While his previous player Aleksi O'Koivu-Volkova had some activity issues, Wally seems to be coming back into more activity with the switch to FHM, so Amundsen should be a hot commodity in this upcoming draft.

Taking all this into account, I think it's definitely a buyer's market for goalies this year. I don't see too much action surrounding Mike Hroch, as while he's a very strong starter, St. Louis isn't looking for a rental, Newfoundland doesn't appear to have the offensive depth to be a top contender next season unless they nail the draft, and Vancouver doesn't have the draft capital to make it work. The main questions will surround what Colorado does with their two goalies and what teams might be willing to offer for one of them, and where draft prospect Cale Amundsen ends up going.

***sve7en*** · 03-08-2020, 04:23 PM

03-08-2020, 04:17 PMthecanadiancanuck Wrote: The only downside to Hroch's trade value is that he's currently in debt and hasn't produced a media piece in almost four months, so any team wanting to acquire him would likely have to be aware of this.

That really doesn't make a difference for an SMJHL rental already at the cap though. He's also socially and forumally active.

I also think that with the parity in the J, everyone can largely contend, and moving to FHM means that any team might be able to win the cup next season.

Outside of that, really good article, and a really interesting topic that probably not everyone has considered. 10/10.

***boom*** · 03-08-2020, 04:42 PM

03-08-2020, 04:23 PMsve7en Wrote:
03-08-2020, 04:17 PMthecanadiancanuck Wrote: The only downside to Hroch's trade value is that he's currently in debt and hasn't produced a media piece in almost four months, so any team wanting to acquire him would likely have to be aware of this.
That really doesn't make a difference for an SMJHL rental already at the cap though. He's also socially and forumally active.

I also think that with the parity in the J, everyone can largely contend, and moving to FHM means that any team might be able to win the cup next season.

Outside of that, really good article, and a really interesting topic that probably not everyone has considered. 10/10.

Those are definitely good points and I see what you're saying - him being broke isn't as big an issue as if one of the younger guys didn't have money, as he's gone after the season anyways and doesn't need to train. I think it's most likely that he'll return in a Kraken uniform next season, they don't need to get rid of him and I don't see any of Newfoundland, St. Louis or Vancouver making an offer that Carolina likes enough to ship him out, but he would be an interesting possibility if a team needed a one-year goalie. Honestly, Detroit would be a really interesting team for Hroch to go to because they're a young, contending team with a developing starter and can afford to trade some draft picks if they wanted to make a run at the Four Star Cup, but Jobin isn't bad, is pretty active and I don't think the Falcons would be willing to bench him for a season.

***hhh81*** · 03-08-2020, 04:42 PM

Interesting and insightful analysis. Don't hold your breath, though! Anyone who knows my GM tenure knows we've had a long run of... unfortunately goalie situations.

***Chevy*** · 03-08-2020, 04:43 PM

I'm a simple person. I see an article about goalies (aka goalie love)...I enjoy. 11/10

***boom*** · 03-08-2020, 04:47 PM

03-08-2020, 04:42 PMhhh81 Wrote: Interesting and insightful analysis. Don't hold your breath, though! Anyone who knows my GM tenure knows we've had a long run of... unfortunately goalie situations.

I am a lifetime Vancouver Canucks fan. I have experience with having too many starting goalies.

***hhh81*** · 03-08-2020, 07:34 PM

03-08-2020, 04:47 PMthecanadiancanuck Wrote:
03-08-2020, 04:42 PMhhh81 Wrote: Interesting and insightful analysis. Don't hold your breath, though! Anyone who knows my GM tenure knows we've had a long run of... unfortunately goalie situations.
I am a lifetime Vancouver Canucks fan. I have experience with having too many starting goalies.

I'm arguing the opposite, though. @Vandy's entire tenure in Colorado was with subpar goaltending. :(

BDonini · 03-08-2020, 08:11 PM

03-08-2020, 04:43 PMGeekusoid Wrote: I'm a simple person. I see an article about goalies (aka goalie love)...I enjoy. 11/10

He snubbed you, I wanted to gloat over our 2 amazing goalies but we weren't there Undecided

***boom*** · 03-08-2020, 08:28 PM

03-08-2020, 08:11 PMBDonini Wrote:
03-08-2020, 04:43 PMGeekusoid Wrote: I'm a simple person. I see an article about goalies (aka goalie love)...I enjoy. 11/10

He snubbed you, I wanted to gloat over our 2 amazing goalies but we weren't there

I did look at Anaheim’s goaltending, but ultimately the reason why I didn’t include them was because this article was focused on possible changes to the goalie tandems for next season, and from an outside perspective I think there’s pretty much a 100% chance that the Outlaws will run it back with the same two next season. Trading Chamberlain immediately after a Cup run would obviously not be a thing, and Borro looks to be a really good option for the starting role when he leaves. In contrast, the gap between Colorado’s two starting goalies is smaller - Beibitzhanov is about 50 TPE back of Chamberlain with substantially less cash and Huuveri is about 25 TPE ahead of Borro with a little more money, and I think Borro will be a future starter and I don’t think he could fetch enough assets in a deal to be worth what the Outlaws would lose.

It is pretty interesting to see the similarities between the two teams though - both teams have a very strong sophomore starter and a really promising rookie backup.

Snoopdogg · 03-08-2020, 09:22 PM

Great job, thanks for providing this info.

Is there a TPE cap on junior players besides the 1st season being 350 and the 2nd being 425?

MarlinManiac4 · 03-08-2020, 10:32 PM

03-08-2020, 09:22 PMSnoopdogg Wrote: Great job, thanks for providing this info.

Is there a TPE cap on junior players besides the 1st season being 350 and the 2nd being 425?

The cap stays at 425 until you get called up to the SHL.

***hhh81*** · 03-08-2020, 11:32 PM

03-08-2020, 09:22 PMSnoopdogg Wrote: Great job, thanks for providing this info.

Is there a TPE cap on junior players besides the 1st season being 350 and the 2nd being 425?

350 for 2nd year, 425 for 3-5 (no one active stays down for the 5th season though)

*Mutedfaith* · 03-09-2020, 02:06 AM

03-08-2020, 04:42 PMthecanadiancanuck Wrote:
03-08-2020, 04:23 PMsve7en Wrote: That really doesn't make a difference for an SMJHL rental already at the cap though. He's also socially and forumally active.

I also think that with the parity in the J, everyone can largely contend, and moving to FHM means that any team might be able to win the cup next season.

Outside of that, really good article, and a really interesting topic that probably not everyone has considered. 10/10.
Those are definitely good points and I see what you're saying - him being broke isn't as big an issue as if one of the younger guys didn't have money, as he's gone after the season anyways and doesn't need to train. I think it's most likely that he'll return in a Kraken uniform next season, they don't need to get rid of him and I don't see any of Newfoundland, St. Louis or Vancouver making an offer that Carolina likes enough to ship him out, but he would be an interesting possibility if a team needed a one-year goalie. Honestly, Detroit would be a really interesting team for Hroch to go to because they're a young, contending team with a developing starter and can afford to trade some draft picks if they wanted to make a run at the Four Star Cup, but Jobin isn't bad, is pretty active and I don't think the Falcons would be willing to bench him for a season.

Jobin Jobin he's our man, if he can't stop it nobody can.

**Vandy** · 03-09-2020, 08:20 PM

03-08-2020, 07:34 PMhhh81 Wrote:
03-08-2020, 04:47 PMthecanadiancanuck Wrote: I am a lifetime Vancouver Canucks fan. I have experience with having too many starting goalies.
I'm arguing the opposite, though. @Vandy's entire tenure in Colorado was with subpar goaltending. :(

I wonder how far we could have gone if we had a better goalie.

*takethehorizon* · 03-10-2020, 12:14 PM

Interesting article. Thanks for keeping us abreast with the current SMJHL goalie standing

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