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karlssens · 05-21-2020, 04:07 PM

The Greatest Of All Time

Over the last few seasons it's become commonplace in the Blizzard LR to discuss who's the greatest of all time in each position in franchise history. At forward there are a number of worthy candidates but it really boils down to two names: Theo Kane and Nikolaus Scholz. 1st and 2nd in all time points respectively for the team they are both at least 100 points clear of the next player, Hercules Rockefeller. While Scholz does lead the team in assists and games played, Theo Kane is easily the superior player leading the franchise in goals, points, shots, power play points and game winning goals. His accolades far surpass Scholz, or any other forward for that matter, so it's a pretty open, shut case. Kane is the guy.
On defense I would argue Jackson Rogers-Tanaka (or JRT for short) was the man to beat ever since he retired at the end of S31. With 409 points he led all defenseman in scoring for some time and has a handful of awards to go along with a cup. His jersey was even retired a few seasons later by the team. Fast forward a couple decades and not one, but two names have surpassed him in points. The first, Tor Tuck, surpasses JRT in effectively every category, including awards and cups, and I would argue he is now the man on the top of the hill. Nearing the end of his career he will retire the greatest defender of all time to play for Edmonton. It'll be interesting to see how long that statement holds true however, as Brady McIntyre is hot on his heels. The second man to surpass JRT, Brady is 105 points back of Tor Tuck, however he's played in 150 fewer games. Both players surpassed 2000 TPE in their primes and both have done well to fight off regression so it'll be a very interesting discussion in a few seasons, but for now Tor Tuck is the guy to beat in Edmonton.
That leaves our third and final position, and the main reason I sat down to write this article. Goaltending. Ever since I joined the Blizzard back in S28 there has been one name synonymous with goaltending in Edmonton: Jakub Aittokallio. Since his retirement there have been a number of notable goaltenders in Edmonton including most notably Brett Broadway and Michael McFadden, but neither of them could hold a candle to Aittokallio. Then in the trade deadline of S43 a young goaltender named Tommy Tuck joined the team and (possibly) changed all that. Now that he is officially retired and unable to stack any more accolades I think it's a good time to break it down and see if he has what it takes to dethrone the king.

The Metric
So what metric do you use for determining which of the two goalies is the greatest of all time in Edmonton? I stumbled upon an awesome video comparing Jordan and Lebron (after watching the Last Dance) and figure I'd steal his idea with a slight twist. The five categories are Accolades, Winning, Longevity, Statistics and Legacy.

1. Accolades
The sign of a truly dominant player, you don't find yourself in the discussion for greatest of all time without at least a few individual awards. Both of the goalies, Tommy Tuck and Jakub Aittokallio, are some of the most decorated guys to ever play in the SHL and as you'll soon see were both extremely dominant in their respective times. The awards used in this metric are the McBride Trophy, Honcho Trophy, Razov Trophy, Mexico Trophy and all star appearances. I've decided to leave Challenge Cups out of this one and save that for next category. For those unfamiliar, the McBride is awarded each season to the goalie deemed to be the best by the awards committee. The Honcho is awarded each season to the goalie(s) who give up the fewest average goals in a season. The Razov is awarded to the player deemed to be the best during the playoffs. The Mexico is awarded to the player deemed to be the most valuable to the league as voted by the awards committee. Strangely enough neither of these goalies won the Sarmad Khan trophy, awarded to the league MVP as voted by the players, despite several goalies winning it over the years.

At a first glance the edge on this one goes to Tuck. While Aittokallio may have received more nominations, Tuck has secured more wins when nominated. Nominations are great, but wins are what we strive for. When you dig a little deeper and realise Tuck managed to collect all of that over the course of an 11 season span from S43-S53 versus Aittokallios 17 season span from S14-S30 it makes it that much more impressive. Point Tuck.

2. Winning
Individual awards are great and all, but as Herm Edwards says "you play to win the game" so how can we discuss the greatest of all time without discussing wins? Much like accolades these two guys are no stranger to winning and have seen their fair share of success in both the regular season and playoffs.

At first glance the edge here belongs to Aittokallio. The big concern though is once again the length of their two careers. With 17 seasons under his belt compared to Tuck's 11 with Edmonton its natural to see him with larger win totals, but when you dig a little deeper you can see Aittokallio has had more success beyond the regular season and, for me at least, that's the true indicator a winner in this league. One thing I'd like to make note of is both goalies, in their final season, made the finals as a backup and in both cases they lost. I was tempted not to include this in Aittokallio's numbers since he played just 9 games that season and 1 in the playoffs, but had they had won that year I would've included it as a Challenge Cup win and for that reason alone I had to include it as a failed trip to the finals. Regardless I'm going to give this one to Jakub.

3. Longevity
Okay this one is going to be lopsided and I bet you've already correctly predicted the winner of this category, but I'm going to provide some additional data to solidify the decision. Yes, Aittokallio played 17 seasons with Edmonton compared to Tuck's 11 which goes a long way to securing the win here, but extending a career only to boost the number of games you've played is hardly an indicator of success. For it to speak to the longevity of a career, those seasons need to be considered successful in their own right.

As we can see both goalies are incredibly consistent from year to year. Rarely do they have a down year and if they do, it's back to success again the next one. I'd like to note that Tuck joined the Blizzard following a trade at the deadline in S43, so while his games played and wins are included in such stats as winning seasons and total wins, I didn't include it in metrics like 20 win seasons (since he only played 14 games). Likewise Aittokallio's final season with Edmonton saw him play just 9 games so naturally I can't use that when counting 20 or 30 win seasons, but I can when measuring seasons with a win percentage greater than 50%. That being said I'm going to give this category to Aittokallio. He remain that consistent over 17 seasons is incredible and although Tuck certainly had the potential to do so he chose to retire so we'll never really know. Point Aittokallio.

4. Statistics
This one was interesting. Going in I figured this one would be firmly in favor of Tommy Tuck given the number of awards he's won, but the numbers are actually shockingly close. Sadly I didn't have a ton of statistics to work with, but I did have the typical ones we look at every year when deciding which goalie is best: Saves, save percentage, goals against average, wins and shutouts. Now obviously Aittokallio would win in any accumulative statistic like wins and shutouts, so instead I've done everything using percentages.

As we can see Tuck is the better of the two, but only marginally. The two played in different eras with different simulation settings, tweaks and rules which can be shown in the number of shots they'd face on average during a game over the course of their career. It was a tight race in the winning category that was ultimately awarded to Aittokallio, so to keep this one interesting I'm going to give this hard fought category to Tuck. Statistically speaking he was the superior goalie.

5. Legacy
The fifth and final category, I had to find a suitable replacement for the "eye-test" used in the video since well... we can't see the simulated players. I've decided to use legacy. Perhaps it may be a bit to early to discuss Tuck's legacy given that he literally just retired, but I'm going to take a stab at it anyways. Not yet eligible for the hall of fame, I'd put my entire bank account on him being a 1st ballot entry next year. As I've highlighted he has won every single award possible for a goaltender, some more than once, and has two cups to his name. His 263 wins are inside the top 10 league wide and he was a huge contributor to Edmonton's S45 run when they set a single season league best 85 point record of 41-6-3 and won the cup. He's been deemed the best player of the year once, and nominated a second time, something that Aittokallio only managed to achieved once. That being said it doesn't quite live up to the legacy Jakub accumulated during his time in Edmonton. Not only does he lead the franchise in games played, wins and shutouts, he leads the entire league in all three of those categories. His 17 season career with Edmonton is the most by any goalie, and third longest behind only Theo Kane and Nikolaus Scholz. Much like those two forwards all 17 of those seasons were quality years and not simply an inactive soaking up games played. Lastly that Mexico win in S15 was the first time a goalie ever won the league MVP. A goalie wouldn't win it again until S22. Point Aittokallio.

The Verdict
The case for greatest goalie of all time in Edmonton is an interesting one and goes much deeper than the greatest forward or defenseman, but in my opinion it is and still remains Jakub Aittokallio. Thanks for reading!

@JayWhy @Muford

Code:
1793 words. I wanted to write this during 2x media week 1, but Tuck was still in contention for his third cup. If I only get 1x payout so be it.

ArGarBarGar · 05-21-2020, 04:45 PM

This is a pretty great analysis. Well done.

Alonzo Garbanzo Final Tallies (Among Defensemen):
2nd in Goals (208), All-Time Assists Leader (765)*, All-Time Points Leader (973), 3rd in Hits (2587), All-Time Blocked Shots Leader (1882)*
*All-Time Leader Among All Skaters
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Sean · 05-21-2020, 04:58 PM

Karl if you did your research the clear answer is Mark Stewart.

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

karlssens · 05-21-2020, 05:08 PM

05-21-2020, 04:58 PMTommySalami Wrote: Karl if you did your research the clear answer is Mark Stewart.

It’s actually Pat “the real deal” Diehl. But the world isn’t ready for that truth bomb yet.

***JayWhy*** · 05-21-2020, 09:30 PM

05-21-2020, 05:08 PMkarlssens Wrote:
05-21-2020, 04:58 PMTommySalami Wrote: Karl if you did your research the clear answer is Mark Stewart.
It’s actually Pat “the real deal” Diehl. But the world isn’t ready for that truth bomb yet.

I feel like we're ignoring Blowjob Jesus.

This is a very deep analysis which I greatly appreciate proved what I had thought but was nervous about. Tommy was an absolutely amazing goalie who should also be immortalized forever. I appreciate the work on this, very well done!

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.

Thanks to Jackson, Copenhagen, and Harry Hans!

GOING DOWN IN STYLE. TOAST4LYFE

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