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juke · 06-28-2020, 02:25 PM

Ready for grading, split between @Dextaria and myself!

(I copied this intro from the SHL version, feel free not to include it in grading)

SMJHL playoffs are here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers - often times controversial or outright questionable - and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this last playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @"Dexteria" will be joining me in covering some of the specific matchups for round 1, which initially looks like it will be an exciting competitive round. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works. There’s a few changes to the methods from last season, but feel free to skip right to the graphs if you don’t care.

Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SJHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series.

Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies.

Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game.

Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game.

Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win.

No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end.

Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played.

Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.

Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph.

Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss.

Ok lets get on to the probabilities.

Pre Series

CAR comes into this post-season looking spooky, specifically after their trade deadline acquisition adding a 425 player to the blue line. The two teams split the season series with 4 wins a piece, however the last 3 meetings between the two were 3-0 CAR with a combined score of 22-5 for the Kraken. Looking at the regular season stat breakdown, we see advantages to the Kraken in terms of G, GA, and SOG/corsi. However, STL matches up well physically against CAR, breaking even in the hitting and shot blocking department, and both teams are rocking the same save percentage. As it stands now, CAR has a 67.6% chance of winning any given game, expected score of 4.25 to 2.89, which translates into an 84% chance at a series win. Despite those numbers, STL was able to get off to a great start against the pre-Yxskaft CAR team this season, going 3-0 and outsourcing them 22-8 in the first 3 meetings. They’ll be looking to channel that energy as they go for the first round upset.

General Series Stats

Game 1

3 - 2

CAR did everything right in game 1, but still ultimately lost to a late goal, with STL taking game one 3-2. The Kraken had over double the Scarecrow’s shots on goal as well as corsi, but were cursed with an 11 percentage lower save percentage. CAR will be happy to see that they really dominated the possession game, but STL will be happy about leading in the only stat that matters - goals. They take the 1-0 series lead, but based on the regular season scoring numbers, CAR still has a 68% chance of a series lead. That number will drop below 50% though if STL can pull off the sweep in the first two games on the road.

Game 2

4 - 8

CAR bounced back in game 2, taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the first and they maintained the lead for the rest of the game for a 8-4 victory against STL. Their shots and corsi may have decreased to 28 and 51 respectively, but the Kraken ended up with the higher save percentage between the two teams resulting in their win. For the Scarecrows, their team had more takeaways, more shots blocked, and less time spent in the penalty box. They even scored 4 goals, but CAR scored 8 tying the series at 1-1 after 2 games. This increased the chances of CAR winning the series to 78.5%, again while STL looks to repeat their success in game 1.

Game 3

2 - 3

As a broad note for all game 3 stats, I forgot to save the index after game 2. Which means these game 3 stats are really an average of game 2 and 3 combined.

CAR was able to come back from an early 2 goal deficit in game 3, to take the win and the 2-1 series lead. CAR played well, secured advantages in shots, hits, takeaways, faceoff wins, and save percentage. STL has certainly shown that they have what it takes to compete with this strong Kraken team, but overall in the series the Kraken hold strong statistical leads in corsi, scoring, SOG, GR, and most defensive stats as well, all leading to an 89% chance of moving on to round 2. STL will hope to repeat game 1 and split the series at home before heading back to CAR, and they surely haven’t lost confidence yet considering their early lead in game 4. Game 5 is a must win for STL, as a 3-1 lead would raise CAR’s chances to above 95%.

Game 4

5 - 2

CAR had the lead 2 times this game after scoring the first goal and their second to take a 1-0 and 2-1 lead respectively. However, STL stormed back scoring 3 unanswered goals to win 5-2. The Kraken had 10 more shots on net and the higher corsi and hits, but ultimately the shots were not representative of the number of goals. In spite of facing more shots, STL was able to have the higher save percentage between the 2 teams and their higher number of shots blocked certainly helped as well. As a result, the chances of CAR winning dropped to 65.2% following their game 3 win that previously brought them above 95%. The Scarecrows are certainly not out of this series just yet as they tie the series 2-2.

As a broad note for winning chances, game 4 and following will weigh playoff scoring a lot more heavily which resulted in a potential large change in winning percentages from games 3 to 4.

Game 5

2 - 1

STL took home the win in the crucial game 5, edging out the Kraken 2-1 in a game where the two goalies combined for just under a 96% save percentage. STL outshot the Kraken, but CAR had over 10 more shot attempts this game, as STL’s 24 shot blocks played a large role in keeping the puck out of their net. CAR is still comfortably outshooting, and out-possessing STL in the series, but they now uncomfortably face elimination in game 6. As was the case in game 5, STL is blocking almost twice as many shots per game as the Kraken, and they also have almost twice the probability at winning the series now, just under 66% (STL) to 33% (CAR).

Game 6

4 - 5

A nail biting elimination game for CAR as the game was tied 4-4 heading into overtime. Almost 4 minutes in, CAR player Jimmy Wagner scored to win the game 5-4 and send the series to a game 7. STL showed all signs of potentially winning the series this game with the higher shots on goal, hits, shots blocked, and takeaways. They even had a corsi of 58, but the Kraken were the ones who had a corsi of 68 alongside a higher save percentage and PDO. After STL had the higher win percentage following game 6, CAR has come back to boost their odds back to 61.3%. This favours CAR heading into the series deciding game 7, but STL certainly has a good chance of winning as well.

Game 7

3 - 5

Game 7 was likely too close for comfort for CAR, who once again dominated the SOG and corsi department, just to find STL within a goal for a good portion of the game. CAR had control of the series in terms of the underlying statistics, but their sub-par PDO kept STL in it for the long haul, and could potentially raise concerns as the Kraken move forward. Regardless, the Kraken were able to do what they were supposed to do and win this series, and now move on to face NL in the conference finals. I think that STL should be greatly commended for their effort in this one - I’m not sure many people predicted this series going a full 7, let alone one game 6 OT breakaway from taking the series.

Pre Series

Breaking the ‘4th wall’ here for a second and speaking as an NL player, DET scares me as a round 1 matchup. Yes, they struggled this season compared to the standard they set last year, but they finished the back half of the season stronger than they started, and finished out the last week at 8-4. Not to mention that Jobin had the highest save percentage and GSAA among starters this season, and they’re still the highest average TPE team. Playoff anxiety aside however, NL has the statistical advantage against DET from the regular season across almost every stat: most notably scoring over 1 more goal a game, letting in less goals, more SOG and corsi for, as well as a significantly better corsi against. These stats have combined into a 63% chance for NL to win any given game (3.41 to 2.3), which leads to a starting line of 76.6% chance of a NL series win. If any team could overcome 75%+ series odds, it would probably be last season’s champs and TPE powerhouse DET, so I expect a competitive first round matchup.

General Series Stats

Game 1

2 - 3

NL wins game one 3-2, and despite their series odds increasing to 88% because of it, DET will likely keep the series closer than the odds suggest considering they outshot the Berserkers in game 1. NL certainly won’t want to take 3 penalties to DET’s one every game moving forward, especially since the Falcons were able to cash in for a powerplay goal. The biggest advantage NL has might be in physicality, as they leave game one with almost 3 times as many hits, and twice as many blocked shots as DET.

Game 2

4 - 5

Another 1 goal game sees NL win once again against DET. Every stat in this game showed how close the series is in spite of the odds heavily favouring the Berserkers. DET were able to land more hits this game, but NL led in every other category by mostly a narrow margin. The only stat where NL had the clear lead was in corsi where NL had a corsi of 55 compared to DET’s corsi of 43. Heading into game 3, DET should look to continue to capitalize on NL’s penalties while NL looks to build on their momentum. A close 5-4 win for the Berserkers as they increase their winning odds above 90% and take a 2-0 series lead.

Game 3

3 - 2

As a broad note for all game 3 stats, I forgot to save the index after game 2. Which means these game 3 stats are really an average of game 2 and 3 combined.

As has been the tradition for all of this series so far, this one is closer than the numbers dictate. DET won game 3 on a late 3rd breakaway, and our 3rd consecutive game is decided by one goal. DET is actually outshooting and out-possessing NL throughout the series, as the Berserker’s biggest advantage so far has been Amundsen and a small margin of better defensive stats. Somehow through 3 games both teams have identical GRs. My heart isn’t ready for this series to continue to be close nail biters, but the stats indicate that trend won’t be going anywhere, and I’m not even gonna report the raw percent chance since I don’t believe it’s that low for DET.

Game 4

2 - 1

After noting that the series statistics have been really close between the two teams so far, DET was finally able to show it in the series standings. DET fell 0-2 in the series to start and won these last 2 games against NL to tie the series 2-2. This series is certainly competitive as all games have been won by the margin of 1 goal. Also, when looking at the series stats, the teams look dead even. This game was no different as after giving up the first goal in the first period, DET came back to score 2 in the third to win 2-1 against NL. Incredible save percentages for both teams as DET and NL posted a .97 and .92 save percentage respectively. However, in spite of the Berserkers leading in shots on goal, corsi, hits, and shots blocked, it was the Falcons who were able to score the game winning goal with 2 minutes left in the third. Tying the series up, DET’s winning chances surged to 40% as NL dropped to 60%.

As a broad note for winning chances, game 4 and following will weigh playoff scoring a lot more heavily which resulted in a potential large change in winning percentages from games 3 to 4.

Game 5

0 - 5

NL played their best game of the series so far in game 5, beating the Falcons 5-0. It looked to be another stellar Jobin performance, but the Berserker’s 49 SOG and 86 corsi for eventually proved to be enough, despite DET’s astounding 31 shot blocks. NL has the slight edge in most stats throughout the course of the series, notably scoring, shots, corsi, save percentage, and GR, though most of those advantages are likely from game 5’s numbers alone. NL now sits at 3-2, and with one of the weirdest percent chances graphs I’ve seen in my 3 seasons doing this series, they have an 82% chance of closing it out.

Game 6

2 - 1

After NL had their decisive victory in game 5, DET brought game 6 back to a pace that we are more familiar with seeing from this series. DET won this game by a single goal, like most other games in this series, 2-1 to tie the series up and send it to a game 7. It was again a defensive game for both teams as their save percentages were 0.96 and 0.94 for DET and NL respectively. DET noticeably led in shots on goal and shots blocked while NL led in hits, takeaways, and corsi. For the most part, this game was pretty close and NL played extremely well but they weren’t able to get more than 1 goal. This brought the odds of winning the closest that it has ever seen. NL has a 59.5% chance of winning while DET has a 40.5%. Currently, DET’s 40.5% is the highest winning chances amongst the “underdog” teams.

Game 7

2 - 6

Game 7 started off looking all DET, as they had the first ~10 shots of the game, and took an early 2-0 lead. But something happened in the back half of the game, and once NL broke the seal, the goals started flowing for them (also thanks in part to 3 breakaways). NL was able to close out this series at home in 7, and they’ll go on to face an equally strong CAR team to see who moves on to the 4 star finals.

Pre Series

This series is predicted to be the closest of all the J round 1 matchups. The stat breakdowns between the two teams look relatively close, and they did split the season series 4 games a piece. Some of these games were blowouts, including a 10-1 win by COL, and a 6-0 shutout by ANA in their most recent meeting. For now, the numbers are razor thin: ANA has a 53.5% chance at any given game, with an expected score of 2.71 to 2.53. This equates to just a 57.6% chance of winning the series, and I think I speak for all neutral viewers that hopefully the series is close and will provide an entertaining back and forth.

General Series Stats

Game 1

3 - 5

Continuing the theme of ‘getting outshoot but still getting the game 1 win,’ we have the Outlaws taking a 5-3 win in the first game of this series. The shots on goal for this matchup were in favor of COL, but it was closer than the previous two series, and corsi was almost dead even for each. In the end, it’s just another case of one team getting the save percentage advantage over the other. As a team defense, COL played better than ANA, with more hits, blocked shots, and takeaways. This series was predicted to be the most competitive, and the Outlaws climb a little higher with a new 78.3% chance of winning 3 more games.

Game 2

1 - 7

Another high scoring game for ANA as they win 7-1 against COL and take a 2-0 series lead. Compared to their first game, the Outlaws were able to reverse the shot totals with 36 shots to the Raptors’ 26. However, similar to their first game their corsi were very even and it was the Outlaws’ save percentage once again that was better. COL certainly plays the more physical game, landing 19 hits this game compared to the Outlaws’ 13, but this style of play could be detrimental to them. They had 4 penalties and ANA was able to capitalize on 2 of them. After an initially close looking series, it seems as though ANA is running away a bit as their chance of winning increases even further, to 90%, after this game.

Game 3

4 - 2

As a broad note for all game 3 stats, I forgot to save the index after game 2. Which means these game 3 stats are really an average of game 2 and 3 combined.

COL flipped the switch on ANA in game 3, finally cooling their red hot PDO off and taking a 4-2 win. COL must be frustrated at how the series has gone so far - despite having an equal corsi and SOG as ANA, they’re being outscored by 2 goals a game. Since the percent chances are based on scoring only and not shots or corsi or anything, the chances for ANA are still reported as quite high, 83% with the 2-1 series lead. They’ll look to continue to push their powerplay advantage in the series and win game 4, which would give them huge odds to win the series as it heads back home.

Game 4

2 - 4

Just when COL thought they could finally gain some momentum in the series, ANA was quick to extinguish any hopes following the first goal by COL. The Outlaws scored 4 goals that eventually led to their 4-2 victory. Their PDO continued to be great and they had the higher save percentage, takeaway numbers, and shots on goal. COL on the other hand kept up with ANA in terms of stats, beating them in hits and shots blocked. This game even got physical, showing COL’s frustration, as Ryan Rieley and Joorgustraad DuBolk dropped the gloves in the first. With a 3-1 lead for the Outlaws, the chances are looking grim for the Raptors as ANA’s chances have risen to an all time high at 96% while COL has fallen further to 4%. Certainly frustrating to see for COL who has been keeping up with ANA statistically for the most part.

As a broad note for winning chances, game 4 and following will weigh playoff scoring a lot more heavily which resulted in a potential large change in winning percentages from games 3 to 4.

Game 5

1 - 3

In a strange twist, the series with the closest odds at the pre-series breakdown is the first one over, with the Outlaws rolling onto round 2 with a 3-1 victory in game 5. Both goalies played well this game, but ANA was ultimately able to score more off the back of their 38 shots. This series has got to be frustrating for COL; they kept almost dead even with ANA in SOG, corsi, takeaways, and a big advantage in hits, but ended up being outscored by 2 goals a game in the series regardless. In the end, Chamberlain played like the best goalie so far during the playoffs with a .929, and ANA moves on.

Pre Series

KEL enters round 1 as a powerhouse of a team, tied for 1st in points in the regular season, and they have the highest odds to win their series 1 matchup out of all J teams. They score over a goal more per game than ANC, and are the only J team to not eclipse 100 goals against. That being said, ANC has an advantage in SB and takes one less penalty a game than the Knights. They’ve also been plagued by one of the league’s worst PDO, so if their shooting/sv percentage decide to progress to the mean during the playoffs then they could be a brand new team. KEL took 6 out 8 games between the two teams in the regular season, have a 68.2% chance of winning any given playoff game in the series, and starting odds of 84.9% in the series. Aside from a 7-1 blowout early in the season, most of the regular season games were close scores, so this series may still be slated to be closer than the numbers suggest.

General Series Stats

Game 1

6 - 2

The biggest surprise from the first set of games was ANC handing KEL a huge loss, winning 6-2 despite an even SOG. KEL only managed a 0.79 save percentage in game 1, but even without a rough goaltending outing ANC was still able to edge them corsi, GR, and takeaways. In a similar case to the Kraken, KEL’s odds were so high coming into the series that they actually still have a 70% probability of moving on. KEL will need to tie the series up at home or those odds will drop below 50%.

Game 2

1 - 4

After a surprising game 1 defeat, KEL wins against ANC 4-1 to tie the series at 1-1. The primary driving factor for this win appears to be save percentage as KEL boasts a save percentage of 0.97 compared to ANC’s 0.86. However, the other stats indicate that this game was a lot closer than what the score shows. The shots on goal, corsi, penalty minutes, hits, shots blocked, and takeaways were all very close between the two teams. Regardless, KEL came out with the win. Although, the team should look to capitalize on powerplay chances as they have yet to score on one while ANC already has 2. This win put KEL’s chance of winning to 76.4% after falling to 70% after the first game.

Game 3

0 - 4

As a broad note for all game 3 stats, I forgot to save the index after game 2. Which means these game 3 stats are really an average of game 2 and 3 combined.

Just like game 2, KEL looked like regular season KEL, shutting out the Armada 4-0 in game 3. This is another series where the scoring numbers aren’t reflective of the shooting or possession numbers, and in fact most stats across the board are pretty equal between the two teams. We haven’t really had a close game in this series yet, they two teams have just traded blowouts, so anything can happen moving forward. The Knights will be very pleased with their 4 to 0.5 average score in their two recent wins, and their chances of a series win increase to 91%. The scoring numbers may make ANC nervous, but the Armada should be hopeful regarding how evenly they’ve matched up to KEL in the underlying numbers, and will hope that the 6 PDO difference between them and the Knights can balance out moving forward.

Game 4

5 - 2

Continuing to trade blowouts, ANC hits back with a 5-2 victory against KEL to tie the series up at 2-2. The stats from this game were a little reminiscent of the first game as similar to the first game, shots on goal were about equal, but ANC had the higher save percentage and PDO resulting in a convincing win. However, there are certainly differences such as ANC’s higher corsi. The overall game was also more physical as both teams registered 12 penalty minutes and a fight broke loose early in the first. KEL had the slight edge in terms of hits, shots blocked, and takeaways; however, it just wasn’t enough for them to take control of the game. With the series now at 2-2, KEL’s chances of winning fell to 70% as ANC saw a rise of 21%.

As a broad note for winning chances, game 4 and following will weigh playoff scoring a lot more heavily which resulted in a potential large change in winning percentages from games 3 to 4.

Game 5

0 - 5

Once again, these two teams refuse to play in one or two goal games, as another blowout is traded, this time 5-0 for the Knights. The Knights had about twice the shot attempts as ANC, as well as a 10 SOG lead, but their biggest advantage was the nearly 30 point difference in PDO. Kavanagh posted a 25 save shutout, and KEL had no trouble scoring as well. For a series with a lot of large goal differentials, the stats between the two teams are relatively even, but with a 3-2 series lead, the Knights enter game 6 with a 92% chance of moving on to face ANA in round 2.

Game 6

4 - 3

Blowout win after blowout win, this series finally sees its first game where there was no clear winner before the last goal was scored. This was especially true as the game was tied 3-3 heading into overtime before Thorbjorn Gunnarson scored the game winning goal over 13 minutes in. The stats indicate that KEL played extremely well this game, but their save percentage of 0.85 couldn’t compare to ANC’s 0.95. The Knights had 58 shots on goal and had 26 shots blocked. This means they had at least 84 shots on net. Also, they had a corsi of 95 alongside a good number of hits and shots blocked. Regardless though, ANC stole this game with a higher save percentage, PDO, number of hits, number of shots blocked, and number of takeaways. This brings ANC’s chances of winning to an all time high of 36% while KEL sits as the favoured team at 64%.

Game 7

3 - 4

Our 3rd and final higher seed, KEL was also able to close off their series, beating ANC 4-3. This was our only game 7 to go into OT, and I’m sure both teams’ blood pressures are still recovering now a few hours later. Just like STL, I think ANC deserves a great amount of credit for taking the top seeded KEL to sudden death for the series, but ultimately fell just short. KEL moves on the face ANA, the only team that didn’t take 7 games to move on to round 2.