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juke · 07-01-2020, 07:33 PM

Ready for grading, please split between @Nhamlet and myself!

(I copied this intro from last round so feel free to not include it in grading)

Round 2 is here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers - often times controversial or outright questionable - and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this last playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @Nhamlet will be joining me in covering some of the specific matchups for round 2, which initially looks like it will be an exciting competitive round. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works. There’s a few changes to the methods from last season, but feel free to skip right to the graphs if you don’t care.

Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series.

Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies.

Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game.

Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game.

Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win.

No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end.

Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played.

Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.

Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph.

Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss.

Ok lets get on to the probabilities.

HAM vs. BUF Stampede

Pre series

The #1 and #2 teams in the regular season meet in the Eastern Conference finals, as season favorite BUF square off against defending champions HAM. The two teams split the season series 3 games a piece, and the stats between the two describe what hopes to be a competitive, back and forth series. HAM scored at just barely a higher rate than BUF in the regular season, with the two teams having almost identical SOG and corsi numbers. Although BUF let in 0.27 less goals per game than HAM, the Steelhawks saw slightly better hits, shot blocks, and takeaway numbers. This round will be a heavyweight showdown, and the winner will likely be statistically favored in the finals as well. At the start of the series, BUF has the slightest numbers advantage, with a 53% chance of winning any game, with an expected score of 3.15 to 2.83. This leads to just a 56.5% chance of winning the series, and either way this matchup is about as close as the semifinals can get.

General series stats

Game 1

1 - 7

BUF came out of the gates strong in our Eastern conference final, rolling through HAM 7-1, including an absurd 60 SOG and 91 corsi for, as well as a 13 point lead in average GR (side note: the team corsi numbers on the graph are usually close estimates and not exact based on the way I have to calculate it, which is why is says 91.4). They put up these offensive numbers despite HAM having the edge in takeaways and hits as well. On the defensive side, HAM amassed 28 SOG in the game, but BUF had 23 shot blocks, meaning they blocked almost half of the shot attempts that the Steelhawks took. BUF will feel great about that game 1 win, and their chances in the series now climb to 76.1% as they look to start the series of 2-0 at home, and increase those odds.

Game 2

3 - 2

After a dominating performance where Buffalo looked to silence any potential critics of their status as the best team in the SHL, Hamilton looked like they snuck out a win that they might not have deserved to win. While being outshot by Buffalo again 64 shot attempts to Hamilton’s 39 shot attempts, Hamilton was much more clinical with their shots as well as having 38 of those shots end up on the net. Elizabeth Doyle didn’t play poorly by any means but their Hamilton counterpart was just that much better. Buffalo still holds the advantage with a 62.4% chance of winning the series.

Game 3

6 - 3

The Steelhawks have bounced back well since the game 1 blowout, and have now won 2 straight to take the lead in the series. Game 3 featured Kryyst stepping up big, saving 44 out of 47 shots, and the HAM offense gave him plenty to work with as they found the back of the net 6 times themselves. HAM really turned up the physicality in game 3, and had 4 times the hits as BUF, 33 to 8. Overall in the series so far, BUF is out shooting/possessing HAM by quite a margin, but they still find themselves down 1-2 in the series. HAM now has the edge in series chances, with a 64.4% chance of making the finals for a second straight season.

Game 4

5 - 2

As the shot totals for both teams edge closer and closer to even, in this case just about a 1:1 ratio, Hamilton seems to control the games even further. It started out with an advantage for the Stampede with a 2-1 lead after the first 20 minutes but a 3rd period explosion that included 2 goals by Lagerfield about 3 minutes apart had the hopes of a even series dashed. Hamilton has been scoring at a torrid pace, more than what the Stampede are use to dealing with but also needing to deal with the great goaltending of Geezus Kryyst. With this Hamilton gets an overwhelming 88.6% chance of moving out to the finals.

Game 5

2 - 5

Facing elimination in game 5, BUF came out flying, winning 5-2 over HAM and keeping their season alive for another game. They played their best game since the series opener, outshooting HAM by 10, and was as a 20 shot attempt lead. Doyle played tremendous as well, saving 35/37 for a 0.946 save percentage. Despite being down 2-3, BUF still has better scoring numbers than HAM in the series (thanks largely in part to the 7-1 game 1 victory), so their odds increase at a higher rate as I now start to take series stats into account more in the calculations. HAM still has a 69.7% chance of eliminating BUF, and they’ll likely be counting on a good outing from Kryyst to do so, as BUF still has large leads in SOG and shot attempts in this series.

Game 6

2 - 5

In another do or die game, Buffalo stepped up despite Hamilton having the slight edge in shot attempts throughout the game. Part of the big advantage was the fact that Buffalo were able to take advantage of the powerplay once in 3 attempts whereas Hamilton couldn’t. Geezus Kryyst also wasn’t at their best this game either, only having a 0.91% while Doyle held strong for the shutout. With one last game on the line for both teams, Buffalo will be feeling especially uplifted by this statement win. They currently have the advantage again with 55% chance of winning the series after tying things up.

Game 7

2 - 1

BUF came back down 3-1 to force a game 7, but ultimately it was HAM who came out victorious, 2-1 in double OT. Doyle stood on her head all game, saving 50 of 52 shots against, but the deadly BUF offense wasn’t able to get that one last goal they needed to come away with the win, largely in part to Kryyst’s great 31/32 performance himself. Frustratingly for the Stampede, they outscored HAM by a decent margin in the series, 3.29 to 2.71 goals per game, however the Steelhawks were able to get more important goals when they were needed most. HAM moves on to the finals once again to defend their Challenge Cup, where they’ll face a NOL team who’s already taken down two division leaders this postseason.

NOL vs. LAP Panthers

Pre series

Our Western finals features a rematch of the controversial round 1 meeting between these two teams last playoffs, where LAP won in 7 back and forth games. This season, the Panthers took 4 out of the 6 regular season matchups, though NOL managed to force OT in the last two of LAP’s wins. This series is likely to feature a few goalie battles, as both teams let up 2.68 goals per game or less during the regular season, and both goalies have a 0.927 save percentage or better from the first round of the playoffs. The two teams scored at essentially the same rate in the regular season, but LAP let up just under half a goal less per game, so they start out with a small single game statistical advantage in this series, at 56.1% (2.94 to 2.58 expected score). This works out to a 63% chance for the Panthers to take this series and advance to the Cup finals, but based on last year’s 7 games, and NOL’s 2-2-2 S54 regular season head-to-head record, anything could happen in this one.

General series stats

Game 1

3 - 2

It only took one game for the series odds to switch in this one, as NOL wins game one 3-2 in OT. As predicted in the pre-series, both goalies played well, but Cain just barely had the edge with a 0.943 save percentage. The SOG and corsi were slightly in favor of LAP, as well as large leads in hits and takeaways. NOL had a higher PDO however, and unlike LAP, they were able to capitalize on the powerplay this game compared to 0/4 for LAP. The Specters are now in control of the series after game 1 in terms of probability, with an early 55.9% chance of going the distance.

Game 2

6 - 4

In a series against the Los Angeles Panthers, it was expected that the Specters might struggle to score against one of the best defensive teams in the league. At the moment, scoring is one of the last things they’re worrying about right now, converting 6 goals on only 33 shots on goals. The overall SOG and corsi were once again into LAP’s favor but it’s nothing that the Specters aren’t used to, getting outshot but still managing to make the most of their relatively limited chances. LAP even had the 3 powerplay advantages to add onto their totals but both teams ended up with one PPG each. New Orleans takes a significant lead with 80.5% to win the series.

Game 3

7 - 1

NOL has done everything right in this series so far, and continued their momentum with a 7-1 blowout in game 3. Cain has been unbeatable in this series, posting a 0.94 and and 0.974 in this game. The shots in this game were relatively even, and LAP actually has the SOG and corsi advantage throughout the series, but NOL’s 30 point higher PDO has propelled them to a 3-0 series lead as they look for just 1 more win. They now have a 96.4% of not getting reversed swept and advancing through to the Challenge Cup finals.

Game 4

4 - 5

In an elimination situation already, the Panthers found themselves with their backs against the wall and managed to escape just barely thanks to a Theo Morgan goal with 2 minutes and 29 seconds remaining in the game. The game hasn’t followed the usual pattern of games past for both the Specters and Panthers with the shot attempts being almost dead even. The only thing to note was the struggle on both goalies’ ends with a 0.86SV% for Cain and a 0.90SV% for Booth. Both will have to do better if their teams will grab another win. For the Specters, it’s just one more before a cup final appearance as they hold a whopping 91.4% chance of doing so.

Game 5

2 - 3

Our other #1 seed facing elimination in game 5, LAP also managed to stay alive, though it took them a thrilling game and an OT to do so. Booth bounced back from a couple rougher outings earlier this series, stopping 28 of 30, and it took LAP 42 SOG themselves to beat Cain in OT. Defensively, LAP had a massive lead in hits this game, while NOL was able to block about 33% of LAP’s total shot attempts. This series has been frustrating for LAP, as they have slight leads in SOG and corsi for numbers, but NOL is sitting tall with a 10 point lead in PDO, and as a result, the Specters are scoring 1.4 more goals per game. Because of this scoring differential, LAP’s odds didn’t increase as high as BUF’s did with the game 5 win, and NOL heads back home for game 6 with a 78% chance of a Challenge Cup finals appearance.

Game 6

2 - 6

The LA Panthers set the SHL world on fire last season for their ability to come from behind and win close games in overtime. They just might overwrite that reputation with an even greater one as they are one game away from completing the reverse sweet. They were dominant today despite giving up 4 powerplay opportunities, controlling around 66% of shot attempts. With this style of allowing possession and hoping that Cain pulls them out, that wasn’t the case today as he heavily struggled with a 0.81SV%. The series now is basically at a coinflip with the slightest edge for New Orleans at 50.7%[/align]

Game 7

5 - 2

LAP made an incredible effort to come back from down 0-3, though they weren’t able to finish the reverse sweep, and NOL moves on to the finals. This series wasn’t quite the goalie battle that I thought it may be, as both teams combined for over 7 goals a game, as well as a 0.895 save percentage. NOL has now taken down two higher seeds this playoffs, and they now face the defending champs HAM as they look to complete their cup run.