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[SJHN] Mock Expansion Protection/Exposure Lists
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(This post was last modified: 07-16-2020, 08:06 PM by Nhamlet.)

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So a fun thought experiment and exercise that arose from the SMJHL announcing the expansion of two new teams, The Nevada Battleborn and Quebec City Citadelles, was anticipating what the existing SMJHL teams would have to do. Given the variety of players that would remain on the roster, would be called up, etc. it provided an interesting opportunity to put myself in the position of each teams’ management and anticipate what they might do or what the best option for them to do was. As usual, inactive users were denoted with an asterisk and based on whether they had posted anything in the last two weeks. These were last checked on 7/12 so it’s possible some of them returned in the last bit. This also includes TPE so it’s possible players have a 30-50 TPE difference than what is listed here by the time the weekend updates pass through.

With that being said, this is naturally only a bunch of guesses by myself plus a few others from the SJHN group as there was no insider information for any of these picks. The toughest part that I will refer to, is the debate about the value of a S53 player, generally capped at 425 TPE around but more likely than not, going to be playing for only one more season. Comparing that with getting a rookie or another player that might be around for longer and making the expansion pick have a longer term value given the quick cycle of the SMJHL anyways.

There will also be different drafting priorities for each expansion team, with either a priority in winning in their inaugural season a potential goal or simply to build a solid group of players and users first. With hopefully enough caveats out of the way, I present my anticipated protection, exposure and ultimately selection list of all the teams involved in the SMJHL group.

A few expansion rules to go over prior to laying it out:
  • Teams will be allowed to protect 6F/4D/1G OR 10 Players
  • The two expansion teams will take turns drafting in snake draft order for 10 total picks.
  • Each current team will be designated to lose one (1) player from their roster to an expansion team.
  • If a GM has a player in the SMJHL, they must take their player on the 5th and final round.
  • If a Co-GM has a player in the SMJHL, they must be taken in the second round.
  • If a SMJHL team has a player that will be lost via a GM position, that team will be exempt from exposing other players in the draft.
  • When an expansion teams turns comes up to draft, they may choose to draft from any current teams roster who has not yet lost a player to expansion
  • Once a team loses a player to expansion, they cannot lose another and are removed from the rest of the expansion draft.

Anaheim Outlaws
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The Outlaws find their best in league centre depth heavily ravaged by callups for this upcoming season, meaning they’ll want to desperately preserve what’s left. Otherwise, the other losses are a little bit more easily replaced. The only question mark is Ulrik Bergstrom who is inactive currently but part of the Tampa Bay organization who has 6 defensemen on their roster page, though two of them are around 200 TPE. Bergstrom will become a UFA this offseason but as an inactive free agent would be a cheap add on to patch the large holes on the team.

Given what’s left, the protection list seems very straight forward for the Outlaws. They’ll look to protect just about every S55 rookie that has been earning well, maybe with a difficult decision between Juan Hunna-Pussant and James Boxman II. Both have been relatively close in earning though Boxman has been the more active as of late. It’ll be likely that the one left out of the two will be the choice for selection.


Anchorage Armada
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One of a couple young teams to face no call ups or age outs, Anchorage is left with some difficult questions as to who they would end up protecting as they do offer quite a few options for the expansion teams to select from. There are some obvious choices in terms of long term value with how relatively young this team’s upcoming core is with Scoochie being the obvious goalie choice and the top four of Alexei Petrikov, Matthew Sawful, Pojo Biscuit and Bork Lazer being locks. From there, I leaned towards ensuring some of the younger players in Taylor Gervais, Theo Kondos, TURG TURG, and Sven Gunnar to lead this team in the future. After that things get much murkier.

They have a couple S52 players who haven’t earned enough to warrant being called up so at the very least their value in the SMJHL is capped at 1 season max. Santtu Rasanen is in the same boat but as a higher earning S53 player, will likely see his last season. Do they keep him protected in hopes of finding success in this next season while they still have a few of these players? If so, then Igor Victory becomes available which would be a real shame as that is easily a top pick for an expansion team to get a S55 solid earning player. The 10 player selection solves this but leaves a variety of forwards available. As an expansion team, should Igor Victory be off the table for whatever reason, I may lean towards inactive Chris de Siren as a top forward to help shelter and lead the team for the next couple seasons. The inactivity is a loss on the locker room side of things but likely will have a player for another two seasons unless their activity explodes in the next season, in which case that’s a win in itself.


Carolina Kraken
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Carolina has quite a few call ups of their own though more likely than not, their team performance next season is likely to be as good as it was this past one. Keith Lee going up though his future remains unknown with his interest in free agency, is probably one of the biggest losses. Sven Yxskaft was a deadline add and managed to get a cup ring in his last season the SMJHL before moving up to the Wolfpack alongside Stan Hanson. Frans Eller was a bit of a surprise call up though it does make things easier for Carolina having one clear goalie to protect. The big question mark is Ambacas Cuddles who could easily step into the top 4 of the Tampa Bay defense, but sounds like will spend one more season in the J.

Speaking of one of the top picks in the expansion draft, it’s likely whatever Carolina does will end up being one of the most enticing choices for Nevada and Quebec to select. With their lowest TPE players being solid earning rookies (Vincent Wolf was a late UDFA signing), they in themselves are great choices to pick up for any team looking to build towards the future. For a team with as much talent as the Kraken, they’ll go with the 6/4/1 in trying to keep as many top picks off the table, thankfully they can only lose one. Wingers Vitek Vitecek, Dwight Knight, Kwame Dakari and Panda Panico will or are going to hit their 425 cap and continue to roll their even balanced scoring ability lead by captain Jimmy Wagner who will undoubtedly be protected with the announcement of @sve7en as coGM. Linus Grimstad is the remaining 425ish centre and they can’t afford to lose anymore centre depth. With that being said, you could make an argument for Bobby Bergen being on the protection list instead of a winger like Panico due to the comparative depth in either position. With faceoffs being a relatively inexpensive investment, at worst one of the wingers could slide into the middle if necessary.

Defense is interesting as you have two of the best rookies in Conner Hutton who was drafted 4th OA last night, and Axel Foley at 10th OA. They’re obvious choices to be the top pair in the very near future. Adam Friedland is a all around threat between his bombs from the point or with his fists and would be remiss to imagine a Kraken team without him. The final decision of the 4th spot comes down to Ambacas Cuddles and Ben van Dijk. While Cuddles is currently the better player (though likely being equals soon enough), van Dijk has that de Siren factor of not having earned quite enough to possible sneak through waivers in a 5th season for a team in the J. It becomes a little risky given the fact that he’s been consistent in his earning but very possible. I would expose Cuddles in the hopes that expansion teams find more value with the other selections available.

So that leaves us with a myriad of players that any could argue would be a better pick than a 425 defenseman with one more season left. The pair of rookie wingers in Zuntnere and Wolfe being available means they could step in as cornerstones of your new franchise. Alternatively, Stein Nilsen and Bobby Bergen as a season older gives your team more a TPE boost right off the bat though their semi-updating schedule gives a little concern for how much they might add in the long run. At least their player have already achieved the 300 TPE mark and can still be useful should the users fade out. Lastly, one piece that might be available is Michael Lee, an inactive defenseman that Carolina still holds the rights for I believe. At 360 and as a S53 draft, there’s some interest in a guy who could be around for a couple seasons on your back end. Trade off is that it’s probably a husk of a player with no user presence behind it. For me it would be a hard toss up between one of the available forwards. I might lean towards the rookies to be a significant part of a winning core in a couple seasons’ time.


Colorado Raptors
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The Raptors have quietly accumulated a large collection of talent on their team without much fanfare. There are only two players who will part with Colorado next season and that is starting Center Simothy Drunkebird and starting goalie Samat Beibitzhanov. Neither are extremely impactful as they have a group of centres behind Drunkebird who all each deserve more time on the ice, as well as another starter in Jerry Huuveri for one more season. Bryce Turner is a S52 who will need to pass through waivers but with his sub 400 TPE mark, will likely see one last season with Colorado.

Knowing that this is a young team on the rise, the priority for them is to protect as many of those young players as possible. At the same time, this is a team that has some potential to fight for the top of the West next season. Sven Svenson is an automatic protect having coGM ties to the team. Jean Uthred Ragnarsson-Tremblay and Bradley Barkov are the #1 in their respective positions. From there, the rookie crew Guomundur Kristjansson, Ryan Rieley, Asclepius P. Flitterwind, Mack Daddy and Lord Raiden on forward are all some of the highest earning rookies with Terrence Smith on the back end also being a clear choice. Huuveri is the only active goalie and an obvious one for the 10th and final spot.

With what ends up being exposed, there’s still a few intriguing choices but all with their own warts. Carlos Brown is a more than capable winger of being a top line threat on any team but for the sake of what Colorado could be in a couple seasons, I believe the difficult decision to expose him might not backfire with him only having one season left in the J. Hiroshi Ohira is inactive and his pass first build might not be attractive looking for an offensive leader. Aumy Jr and Anrijs Asts were finally drafted last night as overagers though in as late of the draft as could be, clearly demonstrating there are concerns about taking them into a new organization. I think with how well they’ve thrived on Colorado, teams will avoid disrupting that and look to other options. Then you have rookies in Juni Panda and Jed Mosley Jr who haven’t been the best earners but still have lots of time to become great SMJHL players. Depending on how you feel with Panda, I might lean towards picking up Ohira as a possible stopgap.


Detroit Falcons
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What was once the dominant and feared Falcons are starting to be plucked of all their players. Leading all Junior teams this season with 7 confirmed callups, they still have a huge list of 425 TPE players though at about half of what they were carrying before. They’re expected to lose wingers Cal Labovitch and Jmac NCheese to the Chiefs, the pair of Reid Sutherland and Magnus Liljestrom to the Jets and defensemen Guy O’Shea and Jack Kanoff to Texas and Toronto respectively. A Jobin was a late surprise with Hamilton giving the green light after they moved out their starter Geezus Kryyst immediately after their Finals’ loss. Luke McMaster was anticipated earlier in the season to join Toronto before his waiver-eligible season but has gone inactive since, leading to a possible 5 season in the J with only Tampa Bay needing to consider picking up the 425 Centre.

When it came to the protection list, Detroit was probably the easiest to predict. They only had two defensemen remaining so the 6/4/1 option didn’t do anything for them. From there it became a matter of filling in the rest of the holes with inactive rookies Biggs Secksy and James Kijmanje missing out. Jobin getting called up hurt in its own way but made the decision easy as to which goalie to protect. Luke McMaster staying down will likely mean he is exposed as the loss of a 425 C hurts but better an inactive than anybody else.

Can’t see this being a difficult decision for Nevada or Quebec. McMaster provides value albeit for one season but still valuable both in the first half of the season as a minutes eater but also as a potential trade chip for a cup contender.



Kelowna Knights
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The reigning Laurifer leaders will have their hands full trying to hold onto as much of their star talent. Overall the offseason wasn’t too bad compared to others with only Adam Scianna moving onto the Renegades and Cillian Kavangh with the Pride. Huge holes still but still potentially filled. Luciano Vessot finally ages out which leaves an even larger hole in the back end. Noah Nystrom and Theo Golury would have been called up at this point had they continued their development but both being inactive means there’s another season in the green.

Honestly, I could think of maybe 3 different scenarios where the Knights could choose to leave one player or another out. Their team is fairly heavily built now with three forwards playing their last season this season, and only maybe 3 or 4 S55 rookies to count on to become important the season after. The immediate must protects that come to mind are the pair of Devin Williams and Teddy Park as their back end has been decimated in comparison to where it was before. So Chris Goodname and Fleetway Super Sonic join that 4 D man group. Then you have the top line of Jaska Seppala, Rocco Berni, and Rotticus Scott who have been so good last season, there’s no way to can give up on any one of them. Throw in a couple more high earners in Simon Takshak, Justin Keahi and Daniel Laforest and you’ve potentially got another top line after next season. Peter Ramsey should be the obvious choice for goalie since Kavangh is gone. However, that leaves Ethan Duncan and James Hagan exposed. They’re lacking S55 forwards as it is so it might be a tough sell. Leaving out Ethan Duncan also seems unthinkable given the important role he plays in their triple centre threat lineup. Alternatively, they could go with the 10 player protection list, keep all of those forwards minus Hagan and only hold onto Williams and Park as your top 2 defensemen but suddenly Chris Goodname is the low hanging fruit in a position that’s already quite weak. The inactive Nystrom could tide over a hole for defense but it leaves lots to be desired after next season.

Going with the 6/4/1 protection, I think that Hagan is probably the better pick over Duncan despite what a #1 C who’s also still active could do for you on and off the ice. Golury and Nystrom are higher in TPE but only have one season remaining so if you wanted to compete now, Duncan would be the better choice in that regard.


Maine Timber
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Honestly, I probably don’t need to write anything for this team. We know already with Faelax joining QCC that he’ll be selected in the 2nd round as a coGM barring any shenanigans and that Timber will not have to worry about a protection and exposure list.
For fun though, I did decide to look at what kind of list they’d come up with if Roach wasn’t an automatic transfer to Quebec.

They’re a team that has quite a few decent pieces in all spots so I don’t think they could go wrong in any way. With the backend they have now, they’ll have wanted to protect the four of Mikkel Asmus Sondergard, Rikard Bjerg, Will Windsor and one of Kalashinikov or Baranov depending on comfortable they were feeling about competing now compared to the next season. After that you would have had The three centers of Roach, Patrick Shepard, and Konrad Danke, plus a couple wingers both young and old with Hellquist, Sutton and Oscarsson. There could have been a scenario where their S53 players would have been both exposed in favor of keeping their younger rookies but as mentioned, not necessary for them to even think about it.


Newfoundland Berserkers
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Okay, so if there was a team that hated expansion to have come when it did, none more than Newfoundland. They have amassed a team where there is not a single inactive dressed roster player, which is a feat that I don’t think any team could have a claim to. And to my Berserker brethren wondering if I have some inside knowledge or personal vendettas about who I’d like to see off the team, I have my good friend @"thecanadiancanuck"'s analysis about what he thinks Newfoundland does with the expansion draft so that I can recluse myself for this section.

The best and worst news for the team is that they’ll be losing Slatt Potts and Jukka Timonen to callups. Now with only 18 players left to try to protect...Easiest thing to do might be roll a d20 and see who it lands on because losing anybody would be a big loss. For a team that’s absolutely geared to win next season, protecting all of the 425 players seems to the obvious thing thing to do. Keeping that in mind, the following list was decided:
Steve Harrington, Patric Twist, Mats Marner/Guy LeGrande/Matthew Forrester at centre, and Ryuuji Minamino to round out the forwards. PBJ Souppan, Jack Klompus, Tinke Jutila, and Elias Kierkegaard on defense with Cale Amundsen in goal. With this, Berserkers retain 3x 425 TPE centers, 3x 425 wingers and a nice mix of defensemen.

That would leave the likes of the enigmatic Andire Kostitsyn exposed but as he once claimed, he wanted to expose himself. As for th eothers, there is former 1st OA SMJHL pick Liam Slate that is the most attractive of any rookie pick available. If that doesn’t fit your fancy, there’ll be a couple 350+ TPE wingers or defensemen who could be had and have a couple seasons left in the J. The Berserkers will be a first overall selection by Nevada in most people’s opinions. The only question is who gets selected.


St. Louis Scarecrows
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Going back to a more normal team setup, the Scarecrows will probably be looking at their youngest team going into this season. Mega Tron was originally a question mark for being called up but will likely see playing time now that they’re in Tampa Bay. Danny Marston will be joining the Toronto Centers along with axel Meszaros who has declared that he’ll also be taking faceoffs with everybody else on the team. Erben Kasius was expected to go up when he was part of the Specters organization but with the recent move to the Wolfpack that may not be the case anymore. Trey Nets is entering his waiver eligible 5th season in the J but has been inactive at only 353 TPE. It’s unlikely he’ll be called up and/or claimed.

Eric Hudson gets the auto protection as the coGM here. After that it all falls fairly neatly with the rest of the forwards, Lizard, Logo, Spinka, Kharlamov, and Darzins meeting the bare minimum requirement of being active. Anybody else still exposed is currently inactive. On the back end, there were only three expected defensemen meaning that St. Louis had an extra slot but now that Kasius could stay one more season, they’ll happily put a protection slot on him. Nicolae Antonescu rose as the starting goalie by nature of activity this past season.

When it comes to selection options, the Scarecrows aren’t really offering much. Richard Majors might be an okay goalie to tide things over until whichever rookie section the expansion teams make gets up there in TPE and can start to take more starts. Trey Nets would be a decent #2 C (likely #1 on an expansion team) but has only 1 season left in the J. I would probably go with Majors as a league average goalie that could provide value for a few seasons just in case while developing an active one.


Vancouver Whalers
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Probably one of the least interesting when it comes to an expansion team’s perspective about what sort of freebie they could swipe, Vancouver already has limited higher end talent for themselves so they didn’t have to struggle too hard to keep their important players stapled onto the organization. For one, no call ups or age outs. Easy enough.

When it comes to protection, William Hartmann being coGM is #1 for protection. You fill in the rest of the only other active players you have with the exception of Wile Coyote and you’ve basically got your 6 forwards. Luffy Richard gets the nod over Walito Gretzky just with a slight TPE advantage plus having been a little more active recently, though any of that could change in the past few days. On the back end, the Whalers have four defensemen that are active and that works out perfectly. Name Redacted stays isolated in Vancouver instead of spreading elsewhere.

So what do you take as an expansion team...Maybe Wile Coyote might have that longer term growth to develop into something. Walito Gretzky already has 268 TPE though even as a team filler, still isn’t much. It’s a coin toss and you’d probably just take the active player and hope that you could make something out of it.

Code:
WC: 4000, lots of names etc in images and not counted, 2x draft

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#2

I can't believe you'd leak our list nham...

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#3

07-16-2020, 08:10 PMJNH Wrote: I can't believe you'd leak our list nham...

Can't expose me now kekw

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#4

This is super cool to look at! Now I can see which teams might need me haha

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#5

Holy shit man, good work.

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#6

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But really this is great, nice job

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#7
(This post was last modified: 07-17-2020, 01:24 PM by Toast.)

Thought I commented on this last night but got caught up elsewhere...

Really, really fantastic work here. Love the insight when I'd have no idea what other teams are up to. Tonight will be interesting!

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