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juke · 08-23-2020, 01:57 PM

SHL playoffs are here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this every playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @Nhamlet and @”reid” will be joining me in covering some of the specific matchups for round 1, which initially looks like it will be an exciting competitive round. 7 of the 8 teams from last season’s playoffs found their way in again this year, with TEX taking the last spot in the west this time. In fact, the entire first round of the Eastern conference is a repeat from last season. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works. None of the methodology changed from last season, so feel free to skip it if you’re familiar with where these numbers come from, or if you just don’t care.

Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series.

Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies.

Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game.

Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game.

Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win.

No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end.

Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played.

Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.

Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph.

Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss.

Ok lets get on to the probabilities.

CHI vs. BUF Stampede

Pre series

A repeat of last playoff’s round 1 matchup, the Stampede once again host the Syndicate in a great lake’s divisional showdown. The two teams split the season series at 3 games a piece, and CHI actually outscored BUF for a combined 22-19 during those 6 games. On the flip side however, last season’s matchup was a back and forth affair until BUF eventually won in 6. BUF comes into the playoffs with the 2nd best offense in the league, and the best overall defense, being the only team to let up less than 100 goals against during the regular season. The possession numbers for both teams are pretty similar, and BUF has a slight goaltending advantage, while CHI sees advantages in hits and shot blocking. As the team tied with the most points in the regular season, it’s no surprise BUF starts out with the higher likelihood of winning: 56.3% chance to win any given game, with an expected score of 3.36 to 2.94. This works out to a 63.6% series chance, but still plenty of opportunities for CHI to get revenge and pull off the upset.

General series stats

Game 1

4 - 1

Chicago burst out of the gate, shocking many with a 4-1 win in game 1. They managed to out-shoot the president’s trophy winning Stampede 42-38 and flip the odds into their favor going into game 2. They own a 51.4% of taking the series following game 1, and those odds reflect how much it is anyone’s series. One interesting thing to note in these stats is the PDO’s of the teams. Chicago was well above average with a 106.7 PDO, whereas Buffalo struggled to the tune of 93.1. This indicates that the games will not be this far in Chicago’s favor if things start regressing to mean.

Game 2

0 - 2

In taking back their home ice advantage, Buffalo managed to hold onto their slim 1-0 lead all game right up until the end before ending Chicago’s hopes with an empty net dagger. Not much had changed from the last game in terms of the overall performance minus a few key areas. Doyle demonstrated that she wasn’t a rollover despite the lower TPE and played a perfect game, Buffalo as a team cleaned up their play and didn’t give any opportunities to the Syndicate to get on the board via the PP as they also had 0 PIMs. Without any foothold to grasp onto, Chicago could only continue to lose the advantage in shots, only coming close in the 2nd period but otherwise getting buried by Buffalo’s dominant possession. Buffalo comes back with an advantage at 61.7% chance to win the best of 5 series now.

Game 3

1 - 2

Buffalo escaped game 3 with a 2-1 victory, which increased their chances of winning the series to 83%. With the series still at 2-1 BUF, and given how close the games have been, this strikes me as high, and underestimating Chicago. In game 3, Buffalo outshot Chicago just barely, but were really lucky to win it. Buffalo picked up 16 PIMs to Chicago’s 6, and also coughed up the puck 5 times to Chicago’s 0. Despite this, Buffalo gets the W thanks to excellent goaltending by Elizabeth Doyle, and some solid shot blocking by the team. Game 4 is pivotal for the Syndicate, as if they come out victorious, they stand a decent chance of upsetting the Stampede, despite what the numbers might say.

Game 4

2 - 5

This was a tightly contested game to start the 1st period where neither team had much in the way of actual chances. Even Buffalo who scored 2 goals after 20 minutes was only able to do so after a great forechecking effort by Augustus Wang, stealing the puck and finding the diagonal pass to a wide open Luffy. Overall the possession numbers look at this as a much closer game than the previous meetings have been, though if anything, it looked like that Chicago had the edge in shots in the first two periods despite the Stampede actually making their shots count. The Syndicate will have to look for better performance all around from burying their chances, to playing better in their own zone while Soonika hopes to make a bounce back in the elimination games going forward. Buffalo is at a definitive 95.3% chance to win the series.

Game 5

I forgot to save the index after game 4, so I don’t have game 5 graphs

Despite a spirited effort from goaltender Tibuk Soonika, Chicago lost game 5, ending their playoff chances, and sending Buffalo to the Eastern Conference finals. The score was closer than it should have been, with Buffalo winning 2-0 despite Chicago being out shot 48 - 18. In this regard, Chicago was able to play a very defensive game, and what did them in was their offense dissapearing. On average, Chicago scored 1 full goal a game less than Buffalo, and Chicago's offense only cashing in 1.4 goals per game is pretty rough, and certainly not the way you would want to play such a key series. It will be to the golf course for the Syndicate for now, as they will be watching the rest of the playoffs from home.

HAM vs. MAN Rage

Pre series

Our other eastern rematch, MAN is hoping to show more than they did last playoffs, where HAM swept them in the first round. These two teams have a modest playoff history, although a lopsided one, as the Steelhawks have taken 6 out of the 7 series between these two teams, the first one dating back to a 4-2 HAM win in S3. Despite MAN having a 3-1 record against HAM in the regular season (11 combined goals for each team), HAM has the numbers advantage in this series, due to their +37 advantage in goal differential numbers. At puck drop, HAM will have a 54.2% chance of winning the game, leading to a 59.1% chance of a series win. MAN may have to rely on veteran Larson playing better than the young goaltenders on HAM for the Rage to move past the Steelhawks, as well as their more physical hitting and shot blocking defensive core.

General series stats

Game 1

4 - 5

Eeking out a 5-4 win in game one of the series was Manhattan. Despite being outshot by almost 10 SOG, the Rage were able to pot enough goals to just stay ahead of the Steelhawks. In a similar manner to Chicago, Manhattan also reversed the series winning odds, but in a slightly more dramatic fashion, as they now own a 57.5% chance of winning the series. The two teams were fairly evenly matched in the first game, tying in hits and shot blocks, and being separated in takeaways by only one. The main difference, as with the BUF-CHI series was PDO, where Manhattan boasted a 106 PDO to Hamilton’s 93.9. That could pose a threat to Manhattan if Hamilton picks it up and gets luckier with their shots.

Game 2

3 - 2

Manhattan has been making it a habit of scoring early and I mean REALLY early since the series started. Game one only took 20 seconds, the opener from Geoff Moore, assisted by Luke Thomason and Alex Winters only took 35 seconds. However Hamilton were ready for the desperate efforts of Manhattan to try and gain a 2-0 series lead when they were able to finally able to get solid enough goaltending from Jobin and continuing to chip away at the Rage all game, though it had taken an additional 7 minutes in extra play time to resolve it. It may be that this will continue to be the key to the series, seeing how well Jobin can play to give the team in front of him a chance to win. If he’s able to prevent the quick, consecutive goals, the Steelhawks look to have a chance of burying the Rage instead. Right now the series sits at 57.9% chance of winning the series.

Game 3

3 - 5

Talk about getting lucky in game 3 for the Rage. Manhattan goalied Hamilton, winning 5-3 despite getting outshot 47-16, which is frankly ridiculous. Despite missing superstar Ola Wagstrom due to suspension, Manhattan was able to score 5 goals, beating up Hamilton’s goalie to the tune of a 0.730 sv%. Hamilton and Manhattan were fairly even in terms of the defensive game: hits, shot blocks and takeaways, but what really stands out in this graph is PDO. 124.9 for Manhattan, which seems like it should be a record of some sort, compared to Hamilton’s 79.7. Coming out of game 3, Manhattan is lucky to have a 2-1 lead and a 62.5% chance to win the series, even if the actual number should maybe be in Hamilton’s favour, given how they have played in this series.

Game 4

3 - 1

Just like that, Hamilton continues to refuse to allow the Rage to take a stranglehold on the series tying things up at 2 a piece. The biggest takeaway has been the goaltending duel in Game 4 between Peter Larson and A Jobin. For what we stated earlier, Jobin just needed to be ‘good enough’ to give his team a chance to win. Larson was more than good enough, stopping 38 of 40 shots but also still not enough. Jobin had a much lower workload but still played a significant part in his 24 of 25 saves. With no powerplay thing to mention, Hamilton handily continued to pour the shots on. With the limited number of shots, we might be seeing the first instance of missing a star calibre talent like Wagstrom being able to put the puck away in limited opportunities. Hamilton now has the advantage again with 58.4% chance to win the series.

Game 5

I forgot to save the index after game 4, so I don’t have game 5 graphs

Manhattan emphatically won game 5 6-2, despite being outshot 31-20. This flipped the chances back into their favour to win the series, checking in at 70.6% chance to win the series. With this series being so tight, I wouldn't say it is a for sure thing that Manhattan takes game 6, but they certainly have the momentum, and sniper Ola Wagstrom returns for Game 6 to boost the Manhattan lineup. For Hamilton's part, letting in 6 goals on 20 shots is just a bad stroke of luck for starter A Jobin, despite a solid regular season. Hamilton also has to be shaking their fists at the sky, as they have an almost 20 point swing with PDO on average over 5 games. That is ridiculous, and certainly something that could correct itself. It will have to if they want a chance at a game 7. It goes without saying that game 6 is do or die for Hamilton, and they face a high chance of being eliminated despite appearing in the finals the past 2 seasons.

Game 6

3 - 0

In what likely will have been Manhattan’s best chance to win the series, they unfortunately fall short thanks to Jobin’s impressive performance of completely shutting the door against them. While he didn’t have a lot to do as usual, the shot attempts were slightly more lopsided in favor of Hamilton compared to other games and they were clinical in every regard. From getting an early lead and holding that to the end combined with insurance markers, taking no penalties for any momentum going th either way, as well as simply suffocating the life out of the Rage. The Steelhawks looked as dominant as they could possibly be against another playoff opponent and will feel confident going into game 7 having all of their engines roaring. With things in the balance to be decided by one final game, they hold the edge with a 56% chance to win the series.

Game 7

4 - 0

As a continuation of Game 6, the Rage never looked like they were in it at any point. Hamilton continued to force Manhattan to eventually submit to the harsh truth of eventually losing the final game of the series without providing any hope whatsoever that there could be a change in momentum or in the results. Scoring was balanced throughout the lineup for the Steelhawks and there wasn’t much that Manhattan could do other than try to play the long game of wearing out the Steelhawks who had overwhelming possession of the puck. Whatever the gameplan might have been, nothing panned out with the hole that was dug for them. From zero powerplays, outshot, giving away pucks and unable to steal as many back, and perhaps most deflating of all, not being able to even score one goal in the last two games. For Jobin who had an up and down series, finally ended with consecutive games above a .840 SV, and starting off his playoff career with 2 shutouts as he and Steelhawks move onto face the Buffalo Stampede.

CGY vs. NOL Specters

Pre series

NOL was a powerhouse for much of the regular season, though cooled off a bit heading into playoffs. They face a Calgary team that they went 3-1 against in the regular season, including an 8-0 blowout midway through the season. These two teams have met twice in the playoffs before, in S48 and S50, where they split one series a piece. The regular season stats for these two lean towards NOL, but not by much; CGY had very slightly better goaltending, but NOL has better scoring and possession numbers. The defensive stats are pretty evenly balanced between the two teams, and NOL has a slight edge in power play scoring. The Specter’s offense pushes them over the Dragons for the starting stats, with NOL at a 64.6% chance to win a game, and a 79.3% chance to win the series (3.3 to 2.43 expected goals).

General series stats

Game 1

3 - 5

In a game that was not as close as the final score indicates, the New Orleans Specters beat the Calgary Dragons 5-3. The Specters massively dominated the Dragons, outshooting them 43-27, and with a huge corsi for advantage. They also dominated them physically, landing 31 hits to the Dragons 8. Despite this, they kept it clean, only picking up 2 more PIMS than Calgary. The statistical favorites coming into the series, New Orleans increased their chances to win the series to 87.8%, meaning Chicago has a bleak outlook for the remainder of the series, barring significant improvement

Game 2

2 - 4

This game looked like the Specters were going to run away with it from the start, scoring 3 consecutive goals in the first 17 minutes of the game, including another one that only took 16 second into the opening frame. However, Calgary continued to battle back until the very end, showing that a 3-0 lead still isn’t something that’s guaranteed to be safe as they managed to pull within one goal before the Spooky boys put that sleep. It’s unsurprising that both goalies had a great performance being the highest TPE keepers in the league. The heavy edge in skaters and goalies was just enough to have a convincing win for New Orleans with them outshooting 77 shot attempts to 44. Currently the New Orleans Specters hold a commanding 94.3% chance to win the series.

Game 3

3 - 4

Another close game, another NOLA win, and a 3-0 series lead for the Specters. The west playoff series are a lot more one sided at this point, as NOLA is now in the position to finish off the sweep in game 4. Outshooting Calgary 47-29, NOLA was clearly more offensive all game, and nothing Calgary could do would slow them down. Calgary tried their best to rough them up with 21 hits, but NOLA was able to pull the win out. New Orleans now owns a 98.7% chance of winning the series, and I would be shocked if Calgary was able to reverse sweep them.

Game 4

6 - 3

Calgary did the most important so far in the series, and that’s prevent a sweep at the hands of the Specters. They came out early and often and did not let up until the last minute by scoring 6 goals straight until the New Orleans skaters finally found their puck luck and scored their first tally of the night at 12:41 of the 3rd period by Rex Kirkby. A surprising thing is that Aleister Cain remained in net to finish the game despite having allowed 6 goals on 24 shots and 4 goals on the first 13 specifically, whereas Kata Vilde was pulled at the end of the game after letting up the 3rd goal. Not sure why backup Elle Rush had to play the last 25 seconds of the game but he did. The Specters PDO ended up at a nightmarish 81.38. Everybody will need to play better next game as nothing went right from them. They controlled the majority of possession but squandered their chances are both Vilde was able to make all the necessary saves while the Dragons were able to climb to a large and early lead. However they’ll need some degree of that same performance again as New Orleans still remains with 94.0% chance to win the series, sitting at 3-1.

Game 5

I forgot to save the index after game 4, so I don’t have game 5 graphs

Game 6

1 - 5

The clock struck midnight and the Dragon’s magic comeback came up quite short. To their credit they were absolutely riding the momentum of winning the two straight with the thought of pushing this to a final and decisive game 7 having outshot New Orleans 24 shots to 6. However what seemed to be the trend in the series or least in the past few games is the one who pushes ended up tripping over as it was the Specters who struck first and consecutively, with a late 1st period goal, and then converting on an early 2nd period powerplay when the Dragons continued to overextend. This was the only game in the series where Calgary had more shot attempts than New Orleans albeit by a handful but the worst loss out of all them. While it would be easy to look at the goaltending and hope for a better than 0.783 SV, the one goal on 46 SOG even against a goalie like Cain is also too little to work with. New Orleans takes the series in 6 games and moves on to face Edmonton in the next round.

TEX vs. EDM Blizzard

Pre series

TEX is the only team in this playoffs who wasn’t in last season’s playoffs, as a lot of their young roster is starting to hit its stride, as well as the offseason acquisition of Czerkawski provided another scoring option. Unfortunately for them, they face a red hot EDM team, who’s 2nd half surge has them as the best scoring team in the league, as well as tied with BUF for most points. TEX won the first playoff matchup between these two teams, a 7 game round 1 win all the way back in S11. But since then, EDM has won 7 straight series between the two, most recently in S45. The Renegades will have their work cut out for them, as EDM has advantages from the regular season in scoring, corsi, and power play scoring. However TEX has better numbers in save percentage and shot blocking, while remaining even/close with EDM in hitting and takeaways. Due to 50% more goals scored in the regular season, EDM is calculated to have a large advantage in this one, at 76.7% chance for a single game win (4.21 to 2.25 expected goals). This leads to a 94.4% chance of winning at least 4 games in this series.

General series stats

Game 1

1 - 2

The most unbalanced matchup of the first round, at least based on the numbers, is the matchup between the Edmonton Blizzard and the Texas Renegades. Edmonton only squeaked out a 2-1 victory in game 1, however the statistical likelihood of them winning the series jumped to 97%. That likely doesn’t actually represent a proper number, but it still does show how dominant Edmonton has been. For their part, Edmonton vastly outshot the Renegades 45-27, not to mention the Renegades 20 shot blocks. All this contributed to the Blizzard dominating play, as evidenced by their 75 CF%, which shows how much they dominated and controlled play.

Game 2

1 - 2

Game 2 was another extremely tight game score wise, with Edmonton edging out Texas by a score of 2-1 to take a 2-0 series lead. White Goodman has kept Texas in the series with excellent goaltending, turning away 41 shots in what would be an effort that fell just short. Edmonton vastly out shot Texas 43-14, so it really was Goodman that kept them in it. The Renegades also blocked 24 shots to the Blizzards 14. The series chances rose slightly to 98.8% for Edmonton to take the series, and unless Texas gets a lucky break - in the same game Goodman stands on his head - it is unlikely that they reverse those odds.

Game 3

3 - 4

In a game that looks closer than it was based on the final score, Edmonton extended their series lead to 3-0 with a 4-3 win over Texas. Throughout the game, Edmonton was up big, before Texas came storming back to end the game down by only one. The rest of the shots show the disparity however, with Edmonton outshooting Texas 50-15. Despite Texas dominating in the physical area of hits and shot blocks, Edmonton still took care of business, and increased their chances of winning the series to 99.8%. I can’t imagine Texas coming back to win this one, but they will hope to get lucky and win a game or two before being bounced by the Blizzard.

Game 4

2 - 5

While it could almost be considered a formality in finishing up this series, Edmonton still didn’t take their foot off the pedal, continuing to dominate Texas in every area. That was evident by a short handed goal, power play goal (both by Jean-Paul Boivin) and an even strength goal all in the first period. Spector wasn’t great in net for Edmonton allowing those 2 goals on 23 shots but didn’t need to be anything more for the win. Unfortunately, as exciting as it's been for the Renegades to beat out their divisional rivals in the race to the playoffs, their time in it has been only a fraction of the regular season fight and infinitely less enjoyable. Still, with the experience they come away with having played contenders in a team like Edmonton, they’ll know the new heights they’ll need to achieve to make it far in the playoffs. Edmonton takes the series in a sweep at 4-0.

Code:
3-way split between juke, reid and nhamlet

DeletedAtUserRequest · 08-23-2020, 02:06 PM

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***WannabeFinn*** · 08-23-2020, 02:06 PM

So you’re telling Texas there’s a chance

RedCapeDiver · 08-23-2020, 03:05 PM

I believe

*leviadan* · 08-23-2020, 10:40 PM

Bruins10 · 08-24-2020, 07:04 AM

These stats really got me wondering....the casino should have playoff bets to put like which team will score the most goals or shoot more shots in the series and what not