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.Laser · 09-11-2020, 06:42 AM

Hello all, and welcome to my prospect laboratory! In this media, which should count as x2 media thanks to it being about the draft prospects of my player James Kimanje, I will be doing a few things: First of all, comparing myself to the S55 and S56 prospects to see how I stack up against them, including looking at what my likely peak TPE will be in comparison with the rest of those two classes and making my case to be drafted early. Secondly, I'll be looking at team's current rosters (excluding players currently down in the SMJHL as I am not quite sure how to track those players) and judging how I would fit on those teams. And finally I will be looking at teams that I want to go to on a scale of 1-100 using my super-accurate 'gut' metric. I haven't written much so many teams probably don't know about me unless they know me from ISFL or PBE, so I'm here to change that and to up my draft stock significantly.
Note: Coming back after finishing up to add this in. I need sleep badly so I won't be going back to correct any typos at this time, just think of them as the extra garnish on the main course. If I made any mistakes in process of how I was doing things, just ignore those. My writing method for this changed several times en route and there are likely several instances of things bouncing wildly from place to place. And lastly, if it's hard to read on some modes, my apologies. I haven't really written on this site before so I'm unaware of what type of text and color of text is easiest to read.

INTRODUCTION
Due to myself being very overstressed and overworked as a result of working fast food in the middle of a pandemic and GMing two leagues, I was unable to keep up with my player at first after I recreated. My first player, Halfwit Nordstrom, was abandoned after I realized my point task pass didn't transfer between leagues and I had very little desire to write any point tasks at all. Then one night, I decided to retire and recreate and actually try to be a good hockey player. The goal was to have a casual, high earning, non-affiliated player that I could just have fun with. As many of you know, when you're a general manager, you don't really have much control over your player. You have to sacrifice personal accolades for team success. With the Detroit Demons and the Orange County Otters, my other two players were not bringing me much enjoyment. I couldn't go for stats like I wanted, I could only help my teams. So, I recreated. Have a fun player, no strings to a certain team, no attachment. I linked it to the African country where I spent several months in my early teens so that I would have some personal connections to make me more invested. My backstory for this player has yet to be written, but when I get around to it in a week or so, it'll include highlights of James' childhood in his town off a dirt road in a province 3 hours away from the capital city of Entebbe. Roller blading while pretending to shoot game winning goals on the path to school using rocks and sticks turned into a dream that ended up with James acquiring a field hockey scholarship at a small college in the States that he used as a sounding board to jump into the fray of the SHL. As for the name, I chose to use a name that I was unlikely to use anywhere else, and made myself an international player for the IIHF so that I could transfer to whichever team wanted me the most. Shoutout to @StamkosFan for being the only person to reach out and convincing me to join team Sweden, and also just being a great dude to talk to and very helpful in the land of the Swedes. After my first season, which looking at my update page I managed to gain a whopping 49 TPE during, I went inactive for about a month. After that month, I returned for good. @Nokazoa and @Jearim drafted me in the SMJHL expansion draft as the last pick of said draft, and I felt like I owed Noka to come back and earn for him until I at least reached the 425 cap. I love Noka dearly and being on his team so that I had a personal connection to the GM and had someone that I could bother with questions about earning and shit like that made it much easier for me to settle back into a routine of earning. In S56, which I am going to count as being from July 20th onwards, I earned 145 TPE, including the yet to be graded Championship Week, which will mean I am at a total TPE of 358. 145 TPE in a season is okay, according to my research. Noka says that 150-180 is normal for a player, and that 200 is roughly the max available. I did not purchase the full equipment available this season, I purchased the 12 TPE option, which means that had I earned for the full season, which at time of writing means I add in the activity check from next week and the weekly training after writing this article. That boosts my seasonal total to 152, which is on the lower end. However, next season, I can guarantee I will do better. I will be able to get an extra 2 TPE per week from the weekly trainings. I will be able to add 11 more TPE as I will be able to do the SHL training this season rather than the SMJHL training. I will be writing more media so that I have the opportunity to purchase higher tiers of equipment. Overall, I will, simply put, be better because I have more opportunity to be better. With all that being said, let's move on to...

PART THE FIRST: DRAFTEE COMPARISON
Okay, for this I'm only using the first 16 prospects in terms of TPE from each class. As stated above, I am a S55 create, but as I was undrafted in the S55 draft, I am eligible for the S56 draft. And, I would like to be drafted as high as possible to feed my ego and help craft my comeback story.

That being said, the average TPE for the current S55 players taken in the first round is 476.44. This is boosted by the frontrunners Rikard Bjerg and Colin Lambert, number one and number two overall respectively. It's also dragged down by 3 players. Adrik Baranov, selected 16th, has 439 TPE, Terrence "Big Terry" Smith, selected 13th, has 444 TPE, and Igor Victory, selected 12th, has 452 TPE. Shoutout to Liam Slate, selected 18th and now leading his class in TPE with 511, a good 8 above the number one overall choice. Now, let's extrapolate a tad and even that average number out across an entire career up to peak TPE. A player enters regression in their 10th season, so it is reasonable to do the following to reach the average S55 first round draft choice's peak TPE: Subtract 155, which is the base TPE, from 476. This leaves us with 321. We then divide this 321 by two, resulting in 160.5 per season. Multiply that by 10, then add in the additional 155 TPE, and you reach 1670 TPE at peak from each first round pick. Now, that being said, I strongly doubt that nobody in the S55 class will surpass 1605 TPE. In fact, based on the current TPE tracker (thanks @jeffie43), I would guess that roughly half to a third of the first round will reach that mark.

Now, let's look at S56. The class that I will be drafted with and the class that I am going to end up being compared the most to. I will be using the top 16 players in TPE, adding them together and averaging them, then subtracting 155 from that and multiplying by ten. The top 16 average 302.38 TPE. Remove the 155 base, and you get 147. Multiply this by 10 and you get 1470, add in the 155 and your average total is 1625. In the S56 class, numbers one through sixteen in total TPE have a gap of 27. In the S55 class, the gap between first and sixteenth overall in TPE is 45. Just for reference, the difference between numbers one and sixteen in the S54 draft class is 66 TPE. The difference between numbers one and sixteen in the S53 draft class is 69, and the average difference between numbers one and sixteen in the S52 draft class is 339 (jesus.).

Looking at these numbers, I think that a reasonable assumption to make based on retention rates and how often first round draft picks go inactive or stop earning as well is that 50% of the first round will fall into that top 16 ranking. Another 20-25% of the first round will finish in the top 32 of their draft class, meaning that they were second round material. Now, let's look and see where I, James Kimanje, should realistically be drafted to allow your team to get maximum value out of the pick.
Let's take the (very rough) average of the difference between the top 16 earners in each of the last 5 draft classes. 109.2 is the total there. Now, let's do that thing with the multiplication again. I'm going to drop the average a lot here and make the executive decision to make the additional difference between the first and sixteenth picks 25 per season. That, I feel, tracks pretty well overall. That means that over the course of a career, the top earner of a class would end up at roughly 300 TPE ahead of the 16th best earner of the class. Now, this is by no means an exact science and is more for a means of determining my draft value both present and long-term. But I feel that the reasoning gets the job done.
Now, let's take a look at my position in my draft class. The difference between first and myself, who sits at a whopping 50th in the class, is 196. Losing out on a season and the additional TPE available just by being a drafted player really fucked me over here, I'll be honest. Now, let's take a gander at the 16th best earning player. The difference between my 50th place ass and that player is 149, 47 less than first place. Average it, and it's 235 across ten seasons.
This, my friends who are SHL GMs, is where you have to ask yourself the important questions: a) Why have I not scouted this man yet? Outside of the New England Wolfpack, I have not been scouted by a single SHL team. Now, I can't blame you guys. Many of you are probably unaware that I'm eligible for this draft. However, I know for a fact that a few teams know that I am eligible because I know some of the players on your team from either ISFL or PBE. b) Is the value of this man equal to or higher than the risk associated with a late first round player? I think I have proven that based on my numbers crunching from above, if I continue to earn every available TPE as I have been striving to do ever since my selection in the expansion draft by the Nevada Battleborn, that I am worth a late first round pick in last season's draft, probably 12th or 13th. However, I also understand that you would be losing out on a good player this season if you were to take me in the first this season, so I don't think it would necessarily be in your team's best interest, although if I am the highest TPE RW on the board at that point there could be high value. So, with the number crunching here and the consideration that I've basically lost a season, I would say that the earliest I expect to be selected would be early to mid second round. Probably between picks 16 and 24 would be my "Eh, it's possible but I wouldn't expect it" range. Between picks 25 and 36 would be my "I should be picked somewhere in here for sure" range. If I am taken after pick 36, I'm not gonna be too surprised. I'd be fine with it, even if it isn't my goal. But then between 37 and 54, that's where I want to go. If I'm not drafted in or before the third round, I'll be honest, I'd rather just recreate and actually max earn this time. That way I may be able to build up to a first round pick from the beginning rather than having to reason my way into the top 2 rounds.
So SHL GMs, send yourselves or your scouts after me. I'm committed long term and depending on locker room fit and how early you take me I am not at all opposed to committing to your team for my entire career. Let me convince you with my answers to your interview questions that I am indeed going to be here for a long time and that a pick that you use on me would not be a waste. Hell, I can even give you references inside the SHL that I will be active and stay around. My Discord is Laser#8573, hit me up.

PART THE SECOND: ROSTER FIT
This section will not be nearly as rambly or in depth as the one prior as it's straight facts, but let's get into it regardless and see which teams I would (potentially) have the most value to. Also keep in mind that I know next to nothing about lines and what positions are good for what, so I could be way off base, but I'm gonna try anyway.
Atlanta Inferno and Seattle Argonauts:
I mean, the value here is always gonna be high. Not even looking at their rosters, it's most likely that these teams will be reaching their playoff primes at the same time that I will. I think that either of these teams drafting me would be a good fit, and I would be more than willing to be drafted by an expansion team. On a scale of 1-100, I would put my interest at 60 for both of these teams.
Baltimore Platoon:
Looking at the Platoon roster, they have two right wings that will likely need replaced soon. Brock Nuck is an S44 player with 1086 TPE, and Petr Mikulak is a S46 player with 1080 TPE. Each of these players will likely need replaced sooner rather than later, and I am a good option to grow in the minors for one or two more seasons until regression eases the drop between myself and the two players. Baltimore also has S50 right wing Karl Krashwagen at 1272 and S51 right wing Indigo Trevino at 661 TPE. Their prospects tab has one RW, Young Logo, who is at 386 TPE as a S55 player. So overall, I would say that RW is in fact a need for the Platoon and that I would fit in well. I know nothing about this team or it's players, but I do think that Platoon is a decent name. However I hate Baltimore as an avid Steelers fan. So, I'm gonna give this team a snap reaction of 43/100 to stand for Troy Polamolu.
Buffalo Stampede:
This team does not have a single right wing on the roster, but does have 4 left wings. Steve Harrington sits at 900 TPE as a S53 player, and from the same class Jaska Seppala has 859. Aron Herndivic, S50 player, has 1377 TPE and lastly, S36 player Victor Marius sits at 1283 TPE. Their prospects show a single winger, Mattias Birdstrom, who retains 446 TPE. So, I would assume that right wing and left wing are pretty much interchangable in the sim, and as such, move my analysis from here on out to be all wingers. Buffalo has 5 wingers, 3 good earning young players, one older player slowing down, and a slow-earning player in the Js. Buffalo has a very definitive need for a single winger very soon and I would not be surprised if they were to spend their highest selection on one. My interest? Pretty high. The combination of the names are amazing and they're a succesful team. I am going to give them a 79/100.
Chicago Syndicate:
Listen, they have 6 wings on their roster. They're all over 1200 TPE and only 2 are in regression. It's 5:30 AM where I am and I just don't think this is a good fit for my player. However, I do like the team name. 50/100
Hamilton Steelhawks:
Hmm. 5 wingers on the roster: S49 845 TPE Jagger Fouquette, S49 1468 TPE Hugh Jazz (nice), S47 1187 TPE Dale Miller, S46 2045 (!!!!!!) TPE Dick Clapper, and S41 1115 TPE Flacko Lagerfield. Any winger prospects? Yep, 3 of them. S54 527 TPE Simon Takshak, S55 394 TPE Jason Desrouleaux, and S55 483 TPE Asclepius Perseus Flitterwind. As much as it pains me to say it, seeing as I am Gabe's GM in ISFL and it would be cool to be on his team, I don't think there's a good fit for me here. I would still definitely go here though, absolutely no questions asked. We'll do a snap react of 75/100.
Manhattan Rage:
Well damn. A hella nice name, but with 7 wingers on the roster, only one of which is below 1400 TPE (and that one is still above 1000), I don't think there's any chance I come here. I do see StamkosFan on this roster tho, so I'd gladly come and join the team. Good name, good person, but bad fit: 65/100
New England Wolfpack:
Now, this is my top choice. Even before looking at the roster, they are the only team to reach out to me with scouting questions so far, and they have one of my good buddies on the team as well. They have 7 wings on the roster, but their older wingers are pretty weak. Not counting anyone S50 or later, as I am told they are a rebuilding team with a great goal in mind, they have wingers Rainbow Dash at 970 TPE, Rafe Ulrich at 957 TPE, and Shooter McGavin at 802 TPE. They do have the lovely Zema as a prospect at 487 TPE for a S55er, and also have S55 466 Guomundur Kristjansson and S54 350 TPE Stein Nielsen. Potentially a place as a role player for me here, but with the people I know and how they seem to be in the locker room I'm willing to take that until I can prove myself and force my way into a starting spot. My gut rate for this team will be the highest of any: 90/100
Tampa Bay Barracuda:
5 wingers reside on the Barracuda roster, ranging from S42 943 TPE to S52 602 TPE. TBB dissed my Battleborn, I'm told and they also have 9 (nine) wingers in their prospect section. So nah, I'm alright. Not really too interested. 23/100
Toronto North Stars:
As we near the end of the Eastern Conference, we run into the team that my ISFL co-GM Jeff resides upon. Jack Kanoff is a S53 886 TPE D-man. As for wingers, they have S50, 1404 TPE Bobby Lane, S52 1053 TPE Rhys Pritchard, and S51 1066 TPE Ruslan Zaporozhets. In the prospects section, they appear to have 5 wingers. Well that's a tad upsetting. With TPE totals of 411, 511, 497, 359, and 356 TPE, I don't really see an opportunity for a winger on this team? There is a possibility, as only 3 are currently on the team, and from what I've seen of other rosters they need at least two more, amd up to 4. If they need that 4th one, I could out earn the other lower TPE players fairly quickly, it's just a matter of when. I see them addressing bigger needs in the draft, but I love Jeff and ml is on my Otters as well, so they get a good grade. 69/100
Calgary Dragons:
Hmmmmm. There are 6 wingers on this roster, but one has very little time left in the league due to regression, and another three are one or two seasons in already. That does leave an opening or two depending on how long those players decide to fight their regressions. Let's take a gander at their prospects: zero wingers. Hmm indeed. Now this is possibly the team that I have the biggest opportunity for so far, and it also just so happens to have a sick ass name, logo, and mascot. Fuck yeah. Sign me up. 76/100
Edmonton Blizzard:
Well, uh, so. Edmonton has Noka, who I love. They also have 8 wingers on the roster, the most by far. At this point I'm beginning to wonder how much winger vs defenseman matters, but I've come too far to turn back now. Their oldest winger is S45, so only barely into regression. I'd assume zero winger prospects based on the 8 on the roster, but let's check anyway: I am incorrect. There are in fact 12 total wingers whose rights are owned by Edmonton. I just don't think it'll work, even though I do enjoy their branding. 60/100
Los Angeles Panthers:
I am going to skip over this one for now, as Wasty has just stepped down and I've heard that the team is kind of scrambling around. New leadership could well decide to completely rebuild the team, so I won't speculate at what they'll try to do in the draft. N/A
Minnesota Chiefs:
Let's see. 6 wings, 2 at what I would consider replacement level. S47 960 TPE Boruvka Banananak and S51 556 TPE Thicc Cheezy. As for prospects, they only have 2, both S55ers. I'm gonna say that they would potentially take a chance on me as well, and while I can't say that the logo and branding excite me, I'd still play under it without a complaint at all. 77/100
New Orleans Specters:
Hi Joe. How you doing buddy. Let's see if I fit your team at all. That's gonna be a hard no, I think. 1600+ TPE wingers, 5 of them, and a near-1400 TPE winger that also seems to be earning incredibly. One S54 prospect, so there is a potential to be brought in if one of those high TPE players ends up a casualty to salary cap. You never know. 80/100
San Francisco Pride:
You guys scouted me back when I was inactive and I kinda forgot to answer. That's my fault. Probably means you won't take me, but I'll still go in depth. 7 wings, with one I know for sure is retiring. Half of them are under 1000 TPE, so there's always a possibility there. Not really a fan of the branding, just because it reminds me of Lakers colors and I don't really like the Lakers, but I can learn to get used to it. They do have 4 prospects though, so perhaps not the best fir after all. Only time will tell. 65/100
Texas Renegades:
Another team with a hell of a lot of wingers, Texas joins the fray with a lot of older but higher TPE players as well as several younger but steadily earning players. I don't really see a place for a spot to slide in here unless there a salary cap casualties, and their prospects show two wingers as well. Also, their logo reminds me of the Arizona Outlaws in the ISFL, and I don't know about all that. 55/100
Winnipeg Jets:
6 wingers, with one deep into regression and likely nearing the end of the line, as well as 3 just entering regression and one with only a couple seasons left. Probably one or two spots opening up soon, depending on how hard the users want to fight regression and how many prospects they have. And the prospect survey says... 3 wingers. I don't think that there would be a spot open for a good while, but it's still a real possibility. 70/100

And there, ladies and gentlemen, is my thoughts on my part of the draft. To make a quick tl;dr before I fall into the bliss of sleep, as I have pounded this whole thing out in roughly 4.5 hours after work:
1. I am good value starting mid to early second depending on team needs, and will not disappoint should you choose to take me earlier
2. I will be doing media more often following this article, which should net me in the neighborhood of $9 mil and allow me to more consistently buy equipment and maintain training
3. I only have one team I would rather not go to, the Barracudas, but would be open to anywhere else
4. If you haven't yet scouted me but I have caught your interest with this insane article, please feel free to DM me on discord so we can chat about stuff! @Laser#8573
5. I'm looking forward to meeting all of my new teammates and creating bonds with them so that we can hang out and just have some fun times together
Thank you all for reading this shitshow! I don't know a lot about the sim (read: anything about the sim) so if I have completely misjudged the importance of position and just wasted my time, then don't tell me lmao. My money will be enough for me.

Code:
x2 draft media please, it's pretty much right on 4600 words. Also potentially a research bonus for the winger stuff, idk if it counts for a bonus but it was tedious and it never hurts to ask anyway :)

LordBirdman · 09-11-2020, 10:12 AM

Check out this stud

Andy · 09-11-2020, 11:01 AM

What a beast

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