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Rabidsponge21 · 09-19-2020, 09:34 AM

So I wanted to wait a bit to do this article so we could gather as much information as possible to really break down after 2 seasons who seems to be the winners/ losers of this draft class so far.

So lets look at the overall rankings 1st so there isn't the need to scroll all the way down for the impatient folks.

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So there is a few factors I used to 'attempt' to weigh this all out.

1) Relative Pick Value
- Super simple formula here. Add up all the picks the team held during the draft (Example - 1 + 14 + 22 + 35) and then dividing it by the total number of picks made to give a weight of pick value. Obviously the HIGHER the number in relation to current TPE earn the better (means you go more value for lower picks)
2) Drafted TPE vs AVG TPE
- This is just to help separate the current players (from picks made) teams still possess vs the players they traded for. So teams like Hamilton who have acquired 2 of the S54 players (Bork Lazer and Rotticus Scott) won't have the TPE directly effect their drafted TPE, but will reflect in AVG TPE
- The drafted TPE in this case weighs heavier for this ranking as it reflects the teams overall drafting success and trades are hard to gauge for overall draft strength when so many other assets are moved. BUT seeing the total AVG TPE from the class is still fun as we can see they acquired a good chunk of capital from this draft class and will be interesting to see how many other of my fellow draftees change destinations over the seasons to come.

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Chicago

- The clear winners for me so far with this draft with the combination of relative pick value + # of picks made + Drafted TPE is just too much to ignore. Edmonton was close as you can see, but having your average pick be 40th in a draft and drawing out an average TPE per player of 563 so far? When the average for the class is 540 so far? Yeah that will do it. Mind you a few things play into these factors as one of he biggest factors will be for seasons to come (potentially) will be Justin Keahi (MyLittleHexx). At the draft he fell hard and fast despite his TPE and I don’t know the user super well but was clearly passed over for many reasons from GM to GM. Chicago was willing to take the risk on the player so at pick 46, they nabbed a current top 15 TPE earning player. Mix in 2 other big gainers in Niccolo Livius (71 draft – 37st TPE) and Renji Atake (55 draft – 41st TPE) and you have a tam that is sitting pretty well. The funny part about this draft for Chicago? Their highest pick (Vitek Vitecek – 7th overall) is their biggest faller being JUST inside the top 15 (15th) for TPE earned so far.

Edmonton

- A close 2nd place the Blizzard were able to improve almost every single one of their draft picks (not a single one has lost draft vs tpe value). Although the Blizzards Drafted TPE average is higher than the Syndicate, their Relative Pick value and number of picks was less (slightly). So I have to give the edge to Chicago right now because having an extra player at 560 TPE > having 60 more on 4 players total in my opinion. Regardless the Blizzard nailed every single one of their picks so far. With Laforest (+6) – LeGrande (+18) – Sutton (19+) – McMahon (+15) the Blizzard have gotten amazing value out of their picks so far. With potentially 3 of their 4 players at TPE levels they could make the jump next season and make an impact, the blizzard will look back on the S54 fondly should they keep this core together.

Rage

Manhattan

- This is the point it became harder to rank teams for total value. With only dix of the teams having positive values, mixed with some having so little picks it was hard to measure is 1 great pick better than 4 decent ones? So from here on out it’s my best attempt to piece it together (until we gain more info over the next few seasons. Manhattan got a good player from their 1 and only pick. It makes it easier for teams like this as with the Leagues goalie market being so jammed most of the time, being able to wait later in a draft an easier thing to do. With 3 of the top 12 TPE earners being goalies and not a lot of spots to be had at the SHL level, Manhattan was able to wait to grab their goalie of the future. Redacted current sits at 12th on the S54 board, but was a 33rd overall pick.

Los Angeles

- So Los Angeles was both able to get and lose value all at once with this draft. How did they sneak into the #4 spot then? It was a close/ hard one to decide honestly, as I feel like Toronto could 100% take their spot here (enter Rabid bias vs Toronto) or even Tampa, but I had to give it to a team that made position progress with the Draft vs TPE stat as well as the Relative pick value being Higher. So the part with Los Angeles which is interesting for me was the fact that with picks 15 and 45 the Panthers have ended up with the 26th and 27th highest TPE players on the board. Kierkegaard (45 to 26) looks like a great pick for them now but then Grimstad (15 to 27) looks like a player that could have been taken a bit later. Both players are already over the 550 mark which keeps them just above the draft class average so as long as they can stay there, the Panthers will have a solid draft for only grabbing 2 players.

Barracuda

Tampa Bay

- Enter the situation of a team that might not have the top end heavy draft Toronto had, but makes it up with overall consistency over all their picks. With 5 picks the Barracude were able to churn out a 568 TPE average which in comparison to Torontos (566) not only just edges them out, but is also done with 1 extra player. Tampa’s highest pick Dwight Knight (4 to 5) didn’t lose much value from his pick so really despite dropping 1 spot is a wash (its crowded at the top and predictions can change it fast). Their 19th pick is still exactly what you would expect as Forrester has kept pace with his draft spot. Next up is Tampas only steal on the board with Panda Panico (35 to 22) giving them some 2nd round value for a 3rd round pick. The back end trails off a bit as Jericson (21 to 35) essentially swaps spots with Panico and Williams (39 to 42) has dipped a bit, but not enough to cause concern. So Tampas draft leaves you wanting a bit more I think? But given the time they still seem to have generated at least 1 star and 2 roster players from this draft so far.

Stars

Toronto

- The Stars had a mixed bag with this draft. They got some amazing value with their top 2 picks (2 and 17) but stumbledon their later ones (25 and 41). Sato has performed exactly as expected so far (which as the 2nd overall is huge), keeping their exact spot in the top 2. Stratton (remember how we talked about goalies?) was take with the 17th pick and is currently sitting in the #4 spot for TPE earned. 2 super key pieces for any franchise picked up with their first two picks is huge for any franchise and part of the reason why they are so high despite losing overall value (if they keep this up even with these 2 players expect them to move even higher). Where the Stars stumbled a bit was with Petrikov (25 to 33) and Reichardt (41 to 57). Reichardt looks to be fully inactive so expect this to weigh them down sadly. Petrikov is just below the class average, so not outside the realm of being a useful piece (even through trades). It’s funny seeing this draft in comparison to my prospect rankings article as Toronto for me seems to have a trend. They really nail some picks but whiff on the other half. Hey it’s better then full whiffing right?

Dragons

Calgary

- The first of the teams to have acquired one of the S54 players (at the draft no less and the easiest 1M I have ever made from Wally) the Dragons still have snuck into the #7 spot. I mean it was a draft day deal, and COULD be counted as a potential pick, but regardless, the Dragons never made the pick so we can’t give them the nod for it. Amundsen has been a great pick up regardless as they were able to turn a 22nd overall pick into a top 10 earning goalie. The only pick Calgary made was at 6th overall with Mats Marner. Sitting just shy of 700 TPE he is looking to be a good pick for the team, but in comparison to his class so far is losing some value (from 6 to 13). This is sort of the break point for my rankings for what make a team in the top 7 and below. Buffalo does have 3 players at around 544 average, as well as Texas close too, but I’m going to give the nod to Calgary because of both the acquisition of Amundsen on the draft floor and Marner still looking like a 1st line forward.

Buffalo

- A very late pick up for the Stampede was the much travelled Aumy Jr. This was a case of, Aumy is a S54 player, but wasn’t acquired until later, so he reflects in the teams total TPE but has no influence on this drafts ranking (but is still a nice pick up for their future roster). Buffalo is the first victim of the S54 draft as Will Windsor recently retired. This means as far as future ranking go, they are locked into 1 of their picks never gaining anything for them. So now the future is on the shoulders of Bergman and Odinson. Both look to end up in the SHL at some point (with bergman looking like a top pairing d man) but both players have lost a few steps on original draft positions. Really, minus the loss of Windsor, the Stampede had a really decent draft and as long as their 2 remaining picks don’t lose steam will still be a solid draft for seasons to come.

Renegades

Texas

- Oh how quickly things can change. Texas has come out of this draft limping hard. I have somehow managed to keep my place at 1st but after that it’s a cascade of falling draft picks. The one’s that will hurt as time goes will be Danke and Jutila as both have lost a lot of ground having gone Inactive shortly after the draft. Jutila especially having dropped over 30 spots (13 to 47) and Danke now into double digits (34 to 46). What seemed like a good draft has quickly fallen off and is keeping Texas somewhat in the middle of the pack even with the slight decline of Fantobens (18 to 21). As long as their top heavy picks can stay relevant it should still be a decent draft, but still is one that will sting for a bit with them almost completely draining the pool this season via call ups.

pride

San Francisco pride

- From what I have seen from the Pride recently this really isn’t a massive surprise to me personally. A team which has mis managed assets and drafted pretty poorly the last few seasons they sit sort of meh with their S54 draft. Mine you they only made one pick and it’s turning into pretty comparable value, but for a team that just scorched earth the roster you would hope they could have drawn a bit more out of a surprisingly deep draft. Their pick Gunnarson has only dipped 2 spots and is still worth a late 2nd rounder, but isn’t in a rush to save anything on that roster being over 200 TPE behind the leaders of the draft. Hindsight is always 20/20 but to now see they could have had a Guy Legrande – Justin Keahi – Panda Panico instead leaves you wanting a bit more. Regardless they are our last team that was able to draw a 500+ TPE average with their picks as we head to the bottom of the pack.

Specters

New Orleans Specters

- What could have been a better ranking was killed with the trade of their young defenseman Bork Lazer. What that leaves NOLA with is still two really good value picks so far, but lacking in overall TPE earned. Dakari has surprised turning himself from an early 3rd round pick to a mid tier 2nd rounder (37 to 25) which helps soften the blow a bit and mixed with Nilsen (58 to 48) helps their case a bit, but even then Nilsen is still behind the likes of Danke and Jutila for sheer TPE and I feel like has gone inactive? So this jump doesn’t really translate to much in the end.

Platoon

Baltimore

- This is one that hurts me a bit looking back. During the draft I was in the team voice chat, honestly hoping a bit maybe the rumours were true of my falling and maybe a return to the toonza was in the cards. Obviously that didn’t play out as Dankoa had kept his cards close to his chest and I was taken at #1, what happened shortly after was the Platoon moving picks to trade up and get what they had exclaimed a steal of draft and declared themselves winners. Looking back now, currently, I think we can all conclude that wasn’t the end result. After the trade of Bojo was made, like the other teams I had to take him off the board for them. Even so, Biscuit has lost some ground (11 to 23) and wouldn’t have really helped their Value rating much. Mix in Shephard (12 to 24) and Bloomfield (42 to 44) the platoon came up super short in this draft so far. Bloomfield is a slow earner, but should keep pushing up slowly as he passes other teams retirements and Inactive. Shephard after an extended inactive spurt seems to be back. So all is not lost yet, but in a draft the toonza needed to build up the rebuild in, they came super short.

Steelhawks

Hamilton

- Here is our #1 team for acquiring S54 talent so far. After dropping an offer sheet this off season, and also getting their hands on Rotticus scott, as a team average Hamilton is sporting a S54 average of 561 TPE, the issue? Well Hamilton didn’t draft those players so we have to look at their actual picks. With that in mind we can’t ignore as far as S54 goes they just got a hold of two top tend TPE earners (who have increased their stock). With Hamiltons 3 picks (16-32-48) they currently have only averaged 467 TPE. With Gretzky gone to Inactive status, they really only have Takshak and Friedland left to lean on. They are doing decently with Takshak sitting over 600 already and Friedland JUST under the average for the class at 539 TPE. Both picks have performed roughly at their spots, so Hamilton really draws out even value for this draft.

New England

- Woof. That’s all I can say to re cap the results for the wolfpack. Having dropped a total of 41 spots across their 3 picks and having some picks that should have generated more value they really did not draft well. The teams draft average is only 470 TPE with all 3 picks being at least -12 for their respective draft position. Sawful is probably the biggest blow for them so far having dropped 14 spots putting his TPE value as a 2nd round pick, not 3rd overall. Soon after was the 2nd rounder Leblond who also has dropped a full round value wise is only 427 TPE 2 seasons later. Bergen I think is a lost cause as well. SHL is a marathon and not a race and we could see Sawful still have a good career before we are all said and done (he is only 100 TPE behind his peers) but really with who is in the top 5, clearly New England could have got better value.

Minnesota

- The now crowned Monarchs are much in the same boat as the Wolfpack. Sure the Monarchs didn’t have too many higher end picks but they did go to the well often. With picks 13-20-30-31-36-52, Minnesota has fallen a total of 44 draft spots. There is some good news here as Klompus (13 to 16) – Snail (31 to 32) – Jutila (36 to 38) are performing roughly where expected which helps justify those picks where they were, but dropping the ball on Souppan (20 to 40) and Lizard (30 to 49) really hurts this draft class as a whole. What makes it worse is that only two of their picks are currently over 500 TPE with only 1 of those being above the class average. This was a Yikes draft for Minnesota during a crucial rebuild period.

Jets

Winnipeg

- Well bad news for the Jets, they had the worst draft. Good news? They we able to trade for Biscuit giving them some value from that draft even if his pedigree has dropped a bit. Can’t really rank much when your first and only pick is in the 50’s +

Ending Statement

We all know how volatile measurements like these can be and that these will change as we progress from each season. So I look forward to checking this out again in say 2 seasons to see where my class mates are all playing and which teams end up as the more clear winner/ losers.