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Keenan's Way Too Early SMJHL Mock Draft
#1
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2020, 09:40 PM by Keenan.)

Hello SMJHL media section! Last time you heard from me I was looking at each team and whether or not I’d be a fit for them, but today I’m here to give back to you, my S58 classmates. I will be using my many seasons of GM (or co-GM, I suppose would be more applicable) experience to leak how the S57 SMJHL Entry Draft is going to play out, that way we can all get max TPE for our mock drafts. Now naturally, this is just my prerogative, and I’m not a GM so I have no idea what they’re all thinking, I’m just looking at this from my point of view. This is probably how it’d go down were I the GM of every team. And of course, things will probably change by draft day, and even during the draft. Teams are gonna trade up or down, or have different priorities, basically it’s impossible to predict. That won’t stop me from doing my best, though! First a look at the teams and their picks in the first two rounds (as an aside, since I have this all written now, I’m just handing out 1st rounders based on the first round eliminations and then final standings, this is probably not how the first round will end up shaking out, but it’s a close approximation).

OutlawsAnaheim OutlawsOutlaws
Owned Picks: 4th
Most Glaring Weakness: Wingers

Anaheim has built a pretty well-balanced roster. They only have one Left Wing on the roster, but have four above average Right Wings, if we play one of them out of position Anaheim has 2 really solid lines. Barring a trade, Anaheim’s only pick in the first two rounds will be their own first rounder at 4th overall. According to the awesome scouting rankings put out by @Fluw only 4 of the projected top 12 players are forwards (all wingers), so were I running the show in Anaheim, with my early 1st I’d go for Danny C, the only forward in the top 9. You can do a lot worse than a third line of Rose-Spinka/Tkachuk-C. I would attempt to trade down a bit, especially if I can match up with a team that is looking for defensive help and attempt to get another piece in addition to C.

ArmadaAnchorage ArmadaArmada
Owned Picks: 10th, 19th OA, 22nd OA, 23rd OA
Most Glaring Weakness: Center

Anchorage only has one Center on their roster. It may be a bit of a reach at 10th, but I think they have to go for Leon Schweingruber. At 16th, he is the highest rated Center on Fluw’s ranking. The only other option I’d say they have is grabbing a defenseman. Anchorage currently has seven defensemen rostered, but three of them are S54 draftees, meaning that they’ll be exposed to waivers if they are to be sent down. I think in my last article, I may have overreacted to waivers, it doesn’t seem like waiver claims are very common, however since I’ve only been back for about a month I can’t really say if that’s a response to most of the great 4th year players not being sent down or just waivers aren’t really used. If I were GM of Anchorage I’d try to talk with the GMs of Biscuit and Lazer and get an idea of what next season will bring for them, if I’m expecting them to being sent down I’m picking Schweingruber, if both of them will remain up, however, I’m grabbing a defenseman.

KrakenCarolina KrakenKraken
Owned Picks: 11th, 13th, 21st
Most Glaring Weakness: Defense

A dream draft for Carolina, who probably needs defensemen more than anything. Friedland will be ineligible for the SMJHL after this coming season, there are quite a few guys in the draft that would already be an improvement upon Oda, and who will probably pass over O’Guinness relatively soon too. Were I running the show in Carolina I’d be cognizant that I have my first at 11th but also a very early second at 13th overall. Depending on how the picks leading up to 11th go I may grab a forward at 11th and then the best defenseman available at 13th, because while Carolina is full of forwards, 2 centermen and 3 wingers are S54 players, meaning this will be their last season in the SMJHL. Drafting a forward in this draft also seems imperative for Carolina when looking forward to next season.

RaptorsColorado RaptorsRaptors
Owned Picks: 6th, 8th, 17th
Most Glaring Weakness: Defense

Colorado is built really well. I’m saying defense is their biggest weakness, and looking over the roster, I stand by it, but even still, they are definitely not weak there either. They have a top 6 filled in for next season, but will be losing Asts and Jr afterwards. They have some bottom line wing spots to fill, but I certainly wouldn’t do that with first rounders. With two first rounders I think Colorado is in a very interesting position. They could try to fill those defense needs looking forward, they could just go for BPA, but if I were in charge I’d try to move at least one of those picks. Obviously, the viability of trading depends not only on having something you want to move, but also having someone that wants to trade with you, so if no one else wants to trade you’re SOL. That being said, I’d dangle all three picks and either try to get some future picks, some depth pieces (wingers and defensemen, either high TPE inactives or active S57 or 56 guys from a team a bit further out of contention), or at the very least trade down and try to find some lottery tickets in the late rounds in this draft.

FalconsDetroit FalconsFalcons
Owned Picks: 1st
Most Glaring Weakness: Goalie

Not a knock on Odinsson, he’s a great tendy, however his time in the SMJHL is coming to an end, with him being a S54 player. And were I making the calls in Detroit, I’d be worried about what I will follow him up with, at least I would have before this draft. With 1st overall, the smart money is on Fluw’s top rated player Kit Kirkstone. The American netminder, is no doubt ready to backup Odinsson in S57 before taking the reins the following season, when Odinsson is no longer SMJHL eligible. I suppose Detroit’s GM could risk moving down a bit, since most other teams are set in net, but with a player of this caliber, I wouldn’t run that risk and instead just take Kirkstone at 1st.

KnightsKelowna KnightsKnights
Owned Picks: 4th, 12th, 14th, 20th
Most Glaring Weakness: Center

Kelowna has 4 of the first 20 picks in the draft, that’s quite a splash they can make! Unfortunately their biggest area of weakness is also the draft’s biggest area of weakness: center. It’s going to be interesting seeing Kelowna and Anchorage come draft night, as I’d imagine both would have a strong focus on Schweingrubber, who again, is the only centerman in the top 24 according to Fluw. Like Colorado, were I running Kelowna, I’d definitely consider trading some of my picks to shore up my team. Detroit has 6 centers rostered, I’d kick the tires and try to offer one of my firsts for a center from them, seeing if I couldn’t pry someone like James from them for a first.

TimberMaine TimberTimber
Owned Picks: 7th, 16th
Most Glaring Weakness: Winger

Maine has built a very strong, well balanced roster. They do have a few guys that will be aging out of the SMJHL after this season, but until then their biggest hole is probably bottom line winger. With two centers being from S54 and the aforementioned lack of 4th line wingers, were I in Maine’s shoes I’d probably go best forward available. They could also use a defenseman since Jericson will be gone after the season, and they could easily upgrade over Kaiser or Zipfel. I’d probably grab a forward with 7th and grab the best defenseman available at 16th.

BattlebornNevada BattlebornBattleborn
Owned Picks: None
Most Glaring Weakness: Lack of Picks

I didn’t even really look at their roster since at the time of writing Nevada doesn’t have any picks for this upcoming draft until their 5th rounder, at 56th overall. Barring a trade, Nevada won’t be calling any names this draft.

BerserkersNewfoundland BerserkersBerserkers
Owned Picks: 9th
Most Glaring Weakness: Age

Newfoundland has a great roster for this upcoming season, beyond that though… They could be in a worse place, of course, but from their current roster, in S58 they will only see 2 centers, 6 wingers, 3 defensemen, and a goalie returning. This will be a very important draft for them in that regard, as whoever they pick will likely play a big part on this team after this upcoming season. I would say out of every position I’d set my sights on a defenseman, which is convenient for them since there is a very high chance that the best player available at 9th will be a defenseman.

CitadellesQuebec City CitadellesCitadelles
Owned Picks: 3rd
Most Glaring Weakness: Defense

This was a really hard choice for most glaring weakness, they really don’t have one I could pick out (which makes it even more surprising that their 1st is a lottery pick). Not only do they have an active roster, with good players at every position, they only have one S54 player rostered, Bergman. If she is called up then they’ll have a hole at 6D to fill. Like with Anchorage, if I were GM, my course of action would be decided by what happens with Bergman. If she’s sent down I’m shopping that pick, if she’s called up, I’m either grabbing a defenseman, or still shopping that pick, that’s how solid their roster looks to me.

ScarecrowsSt. Louis ScarecrowsScarecrows
Owned Picks: 2nd, 15th, 18th
Most Glaring Weakness: Defense

St. Louis is probably salivating at this draft. Honestly, I’d say St. Louis’ defense is the weakest weakness in this whole article. Lambert is a stud and Weiser is up and coming, and that’s about it. David and Dekens are fine inactives, I suppose, though they’re much better fitted for 5 and 6 D, leaving the 3 and 4 D spots wide open. Their 2nd should definitely go to the best defenseman available and were I them I’d try moving either their 2nd rounders or some future picks for another 1st rounder or two in this draft. With such a defense-heavy draft, I think a few teams set on the back end should be willing to move their pick and if I were the GM of St. Louis, I certainly wouldn’t move any rostered players, but I’d float my S58th first for a mid-first rounder this draft. To someone like Colorado sending 6th for St. Louis’ S58 pick would probably end up working for both teams. Hell, I think a blockbuster like 6th and 8th for 15th, 18th, STL S58 1st, and STL S58 3rd would make some sense for both teams. It lets Colorado punt on this defense heavy draft, when they don’t really need defense, but still gives them a couple of early/mid 2nds this draft to grab some forwards who could work out, while also giving them some attractive picks for next season. While St. Louis would get to nab 3 defensemen in this first round to really solidify their backend for seasons to come.

WhalersVancouver WhalersWhalers
Owned Picks: 24th
Most Glaring Weakness: Lack of Picks
Like with Nevada, I didn’t even really look at Vancouver’s roster. At 24th you’ve really just got to take the best player available, no two ways about it.

And now the mock draft. These first two rounds should be interesting, since this is for bold predictions, I’m also predicting some trades. Call me crazy, but you’ll all see…

Falcons trade C Daedalus James to Knights for 12th OA and S58 KEL 2nd.
James is a good, young player, but is also a bit redundant on a Falcon’s team that currently has 6 centers rostered. By moving him they can shore up their wingers with Boyle, who should be around at 12th OA, if everything goes as predicted. They can also gain a 2nd next season, since they’ll still want some new players, though Boyle and Kirkstone will round them out pretty nicely for this season. Kelowna, will move a pick that honestly they don’t have much need for, with the lack of centermen in this draft, and the likelihood that they will grab Schweingruber with their other pick early on. So they’ll be giving up their very late 1st this season, which again, they don’t have much need for, and a 2nd next season, to add 2 centermen to their roster and really finish their roster. Not only that, but they should still have 14th overall to grab a defenseman to replace Koa.

Scarecrows trade 15th overall, 18th overall, S58 STL 1st, and S58 STL 3rd to Raptors for 6th overall and 8th overall.
I already talked about this in the Scarecrows section, but to reiterate, it’s a trade that should work for both teams. Raptors send out their firsts in a defense heavy draft, since their defense is pretty well set, but in return get a couple of early seconds (to try to grab some wingers), a 1st next season (to hope for a less defense heavy draft), and a 3rd next season, to even things out. St. Louis on the other hand, moves up in this draft to grab some blueliners to really push them to the next level, with the cost being some picks for next season.

1. Falcons G Kit Kirkstone (definitely need a goalie, and Kirkstone is the top player in the pre-draft rankings, the only question is do you risk trading down? But I think you don’t)
2. Scarecrows RD Luc Blouin (There’s definitely a few D-men who can go here, but all else being the same, Blouin has the biggest bank)
3. Citadelles RD #A-Rye Izzy (Similar to Blouin, a better bank than Goode, likewise Blouin and Izzy have league jobs and have been around for a while, so less risk of inactivity than Goode)
4. Outlaws LW Danny C (With a few teams needing wingers, the Outlaws would be smart to reach a little here in order to get their guy)
5. Knights C Leon Schweingruber (A bigger reach this time, but it makes sense for a team that needs a center. If they don’t grab him here in hopes of nabbing him in round 2, but someone like Anchorage swoops in and takes him at 10, then Fluw’s next highest rated center sits at 25th)
6. Scarecrows RD Gregory Goode (2nd ranked in Fluw’s ratings, but with more question marks than Izzy or Blouin, I think 6th is a good place for him)
7. Timber RW Greg Davies (I could see a defenseman here too, but I think with Davies still on the board, he’s a wise pick)
8. Scarecrows LD Bjorn Jakobsen (St. Louis’ third defenseman this draft would join Blouin and Goode as the D corps for seasons to come)
9. Berserkers RD Naofumi Iwatani (BPA, and replace their aging defensemen)
10. Armada RD Basil Sivart (BPA, I don’t forsee them reaching all the way to Maple while someone like Sivart sits on the board)
11. Kraken LW Fredrik Stefansson (I’d say defense is more of a need for Carolina, but with such a defense heavy draft, and knowing they’ve got 13th coming up, they should go best forward available)
12. Falcons LW Nikolaj Boyle (With Kitstone drafted, their most pressing need is now in wingers, and Boyle is the best winger available)
13. Kraken LD Luke Sparks (A hell of a value at 13th, the result of Carolina going forward in the 1st round means that Sparks falls to them here)
14. Knights LD Zayne Rotsbua (With Schweingruber being picked at 5th overall, and James acquired via trade, their next focus should be on replacing Koa, who is probably their weakest link)
15. Raptors RW Friedensreich Hundertwasser (Slots immediately into the lineup for Colorado as a bottom 6 forward.
16. Timber RD Jorg Fuchs (With Davies picked earlier, their focus should now be on their blueline, which makes Fuchs a great pick. He should immediately be an upgrade over Kaiser)
17. Raptors LD Ole Olson (Definitely a pick focused on the future, when the S54 guys are gone)
18. Raptors G Sebastian Andrews (Outside of Detroit, they probably have the biggest need for a netminder. They’ll lose Odinsson after this season, Avery hasn’t been training super recently, and Danielson is inactive. Worth taking a shot on Andrews here, methinks.
19. Armada C Dogwood Maple (A bit of a reach, but they need a center, and no guarantee he’ll be there at 22 or 23)
20. Knights RW Casey Outlaw (A great pick at this spot, he’s the BPA, which outside of flipping this pick to someone, I think BPA is the way to go for Kelowna.
21. Kraken C Rouboute Guilliman (Carolina reaches here, but with 2 centermen aging out after S57, they have to hope to nab someone here for the future.
22. Armada D Finn Von Murphenstein (At this point, they have two back to back picks, I’d have them going two defensemen to replace their S54 defensemen when they can no longer lace them up)
23. Armada RD Billy Benson (Same as above)
24. Whalers LW David S Pumpkins (BPA)

I look forward to hearing all about how right I was come draft day :p I wanna thank @Fluw for putting together his great draft ranking, which I used heavily. Maybe I’ll make this a recurring series, maybe not, either way I hope you all enjoy this.
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#2

<3 Glad I could help! Hey make it a recurring series!! Mine sure is every season. I love seeing the work I did be put to use and I loved your article it was a great read!

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#3

keekee

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#4

Great post Popcorn

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#5

Great read all around! And thanks for the high placement!
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#6

Love it!

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#7

Nice read and good analysis!

Colorado is actually losing a lot of forwards this year due to some previously unforeseen call ups and for that reason we will most likely be using our two 1sts (I wouldn't rule out trading back into the second however). I'm for the most part a believer in going BPA and wouldn't be surprised if we went with a D man with one of our two picks in the first, but definitely need some forwards this draft.

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#8

Would be fitting to have the 2nd Kirkstone also become a Falcons legend





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#9

WAIT WAIT WAIT?!!?!? @Keenan is back!??!?!? :O I missed you <3

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