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Thelastheraclid · 11-27-2020, 10:13 AM

11-27-2020, 07:10 AMSpartanGibbles Wrote:

*Carpy48* · 11-27-2020, 03:05 PM

I missed this entire discussion and now it's too late. Ah well, just wanted to say that I'm really happy for Tate that he won the McBride and also that we finally have this discussion. I tried to bring it up a few times since FHM, but I don't think many people listened (and I wonder if the awards would've been different for the earlier FHM seasons if we looked at the numbers again, but that doesn't matter now). At least people realize now how little W and GAA tell about the goalie, but more about the team.

SlashACM · 11-27-2020, 03:26 PM

Okok just give the trophy to me and everyone will be happy

Nokazoa · 11-27-2020, 03:51 PM

Why didnt I get a nom for this award? seems sus

*Count Chocula* · 11-28-2020, 08:02 AM

Booth was the best goalie, that's why he won.

Jobin · 11-28-2020, 11:23 AM

“A” comes first in the alphabet, therefor I should have won. Check and mate losers.

Slappydoodle · 11-30-2020, 06:08 PM

So, going forward, does the goalie on the better defensive team always lose this award? Will a better defense in front of you always be a negative in the eyes of the awards committee when making their decision? Obviously both goalies were great and deserving of praise, no question. From reading through this thread, the only point I see made on Booth’s behalf is his team’s shittier defense. Was this the whole basis for the decision? Is this now the new standard?

Samsung virtual assistant · 11-30-2020, 06:14 PM

11-30-2020, 06:08 PMSlappydoodle Wrote: So, going forward, does the goalie on the better defensive team always lose this award? Will a better defense in front of you always be a negative in the eyes of the awards committee when making their decision? Obviously both goalies were great and deserving of praise, no question. From reading through this thread, the only point I see made on Booth’s behalf is his team’s shittier defense. Was this the whole basis for the decision? Is this now the new standard?

Sadly idk how to get around it, goalie awards are hard for sure and ive been on both sides of the win/lose thing.

I dont know how We get around it tbh, i remember in simonT people said that more shots against gave u a better shot at a higher SV%, so you were favored on bad teams.

I'm glad im Not on awards committee. I do see your concern for sure, wish we had better stats to base this off of than the usual big ones, because now we dont see if its quality Saves or whatever i think.

Duff101 · 11-30-2020, 06:54 PM

11-30-2020, 06:14 PMJAJA SWEG DINGDONG Wrote:
11-30-2020, 06:08 PMSlappydoodle Wrote: So, going forward, does the goalie on the better defensive team always lose this award? Will a better defense in front of you always be a negative in the eyes of the awards committee when making their decision? Obviously both goalies were great and deserving of praise, no question. From reading through this thread, the only point I see made on Booth’s behalf is his team’s shittier defense. Was this the whole basis for the decision? Is this now the new standard?

Sadly idk how to get around it, goalie awards are hard for sure and ive been on both sides of the win/lose thing.

I dont know how We get around it tbh, i remember in simonT people said that more shots against gave u a better shot at a higher SV%, so you were favored on bad teams.

I'm glad im Not on awards committee. I do see your concern for sure, wish we had better stats to base this off of than the usual big ones, because now we dont see if its quality Saves or whatever i think.

I did a chart of the 4 main raw goalie stats (Sv%, GAA, Win% and shutouts) vs shots per 60 minutes (SHAA). In the last few seasons of FHM, until this one, good teams have been favored because the latter 3 stats have direct correlations with team defense.

Here they are:

[Image: unknown.png?width=596&height=369]

[Image: unknown.png?width=596&height=369]

[Image: unknown.png?width=590&height=369]

[Image: unknown.png?width=593&height=369]

In my mind what I can gather from this is that the only raw data stat we should directly consider is sv% because its the least dependent on team defense*. Booth and Vilde have a save percentage differential of like .02 which is incredibly miniscule when it comes down to it, if Vilde had let in like 2-3 more goals their sv% would be statistically WAY closer. I think this was an incredibly tight goalie race and both candidates have legitimate claims to being the best goalie, Vilde based on raw data and Booth based on putting the team on his back. I think if Booth had had a sv% in the .930-.932 range I would say that Vilde probably deserved it, but with how statistically close they were and based on the sheer volume of shots Booth had to stop to put up nearly the same number Vilde did I have to go with Booth simply because he did more.

*If you do a trendline there is a slight downward trend in sv% as you go along the line, but there is a lot of variance compared to the other stats, which are a lot more obvious.

Credit to Geck, Ragnar and Juni for sigs

Thelastheraclid · 11-30-2020, 10:41 PM

There is no way to end these discussions about who was more deserving but if a standard of some kind was set it would certainly limit how often we have them. If the goal posts are moved every season for the individual awards it is incredibly frustrating for everyone that is trying to snag one. It is even more frustrating when the team one is on is a deciding factor for the individual awards.

.bojo · 11-30-2020, 11:04 PM

I mean, Booth faced 633 more shots against. That's 50% more shots than Vilde with very similar save percentage. It's not to say Vilde was bad, it's just Booth did more to earn it. Just a prettier resume.

Samsung virtual assistant · 12-01-2020, 12:53 AM

11-30-2020, 06:54 PMDuff101 Wrote:
11-30-2020, 06:14 PMJAJA SWEG DINGDONG Wrote: Sadly idk how to get around it, goalie awards are hard for sure and ive been on both sides of the win/lose thing.

I dont know how We get around it tbh, i remember in simonT people said that more shots against gave u a better shot at a higher SV%, so you were favored on bad teams.

I'm glad im Not on awards committee. I do see your concern for sure, wish we had better stats to base this off of than the usual big ones, because now we dont see if its quality Saves or whatever i think.

I did a chart of the 4 main raw goalie stats (Sv%, GAA, Win% and shutouts) vs shots per 60 minutes (SHAA). In the last few seasons of FHM, until this one, good teams have been favored because the latter 3 stats have direct correlations with team defense.

Here they are:

In my mind what I can gather from this is that the only raw data stat we should directly consider is sv% because its the least dependent on team defense*. Booth and Vilde have a save percentage differential of like .02 which is incredibly miniscule when it comes down to it, if Vilde had let in like 2-3 more goals their sv% would be statistically WAY closer. I think this was an incredibly tight goalie race and both candidates have legitimate claims to being the best goalie, Vilde based on raw data and Booth based on putting the team on his back. I think if Booth had had a sv% in the .930-.932 range I would say that Vilde probably deserved it, but with how statistically close they were and based on the sheer volume of shots Booth had to stop to put up nearly the same number Vilde did I have to go with Booth simply because he did more.

*If you do a trendline there is a slight downward trend in sv% as you go along the line, but there is a lot of variance compared to the other stats, which are a lot more obvious.

Nice data, i havent looked at goalie stats at all since i retired my goalie pretty much so i didnt know what it looked like in the FHM era. I was always told back in Simon T that goalies there performed better if they had more shots against, and thats why people with good sv% but high GAA and low W% didnt win the mcbride. Confused

If it's true or just some random peoples thoughts i have no idea. Smile

DELIRIVM · 12-01-2020, 06:56 AM

Congrats to you, Tate. You absolutely rocked it. I feel like the committee got it right. Soft spot for LAP goalies.

*Carpy48* · 12-01-2020, 08:33 AM

11-30-2020, 11:04 PM.bojo Wrote: I mean, Booth faced 633 more shots against. That's 50% more shots than Vilde with very similar save percentage. It's not to say Vilde was bad, it's just Booth did more to earn it. Just a prettier resume.

Which is why I think it's good that this was changed. That one season (54) I had my nomination I had the best sv% among starters and a lot more (almost 2x) shots against compared to the other nominees. Then it was clear that this wasn't enough to win or that they looked at other numbers and I think it was similar with Tegernako the season after who didn't even get a nomination but should've (but it is what it is, can't change it now). Either way, I'm glad they finally started looking at this from a different perspective. And I'm also glad that I don't have to decide who wins.

**RomanesEuntDomus** · 12-01-2020, 08:43 AM

11-30-2020, 10:41 PMThelastheraclid Wrote: There is no way to end these discussions about who was more deserving but if a standard of some kind was set it would certainly limit how often we have them. If the goal posts are moved every season for the individual awards it is incredibly frustrating for everyone that is trying to snag one. It is even more frustrating when the team one is on is a deciding factor for the individual awards.

12-01-2020, 12:53 AMJAJA SWEG DINGDONG Wrote:
11-30-2020, 06:54 PMDuff101 Wrote: I did a chart of the 4 main raw goalie stats (Sv%, GAA, Win% and shutouts) vs shots per 60 minutes (SHAA). In the last few seasons of FHM, until this one, good teams have been favored because the latter 3 stats have direct correlations with team defense.

Here they are:

In my mind what I can gather from this is that the only raw data stat we should directly consider is sv% because its the least dependent on team defense*. Booth and Vilde have a save percentage differential of like .02 which is incredibly miniscule when it comes down to it, if Vilde had let in like 2-3 more goals their sv% would be statistically WAY closer. I think this was an incredibly tight goalie race and both candidates have legitimate claims to being the best goalie, Vilde based on raw data and Booth based on putting the team on his back. I think if Booth had had a sv% in the .930-.932 range I would say that Vilde probably deserved it, but with how statistically close they were and based on the sheer volume of shots Booth had to stop to put up nearly the same number Vilde did I have to go with Booth simply because he did more.

*If you do a trendline there is a slight downward trend in sv% as you go along the line, but there is a lot of variance compared to the other stats, which are a lot more obvious.

Nice data, i havent looked at goalie stats at all since i retired my goalie pretty much so i didnt know what it looked like in the FHM era. I was always told back in Simon T that goalies there performed better if they had more shots against, and thats why people with good sv% but high GAA and low W% didnt win the mcbride. If it's true or just some random peoples thoughts i have no idea.

I don't think that goal posts have been moving every season, what we have seen however is the goalposts being moved for the first time in a long time due to the change in sim-engines. Because as Sweg has said, STHS seems to have been much more forgiving to players on weaker teams and might've actually giving them an advantage in certain individual statistical categories. We used to see players on non-playoff teams take home league scoring titles whereas nowadays, all the people at the top of the scoring lists are on good teams. Goalies from weaker teams often were able to inflate their stats because the engine seemed to have been set up in a way that the increase in the amount of shots they faced compared to goalies on better teams was not reflected 1:1 in the additional amount of goals they gave up. Also, weaker teams used to be more competitive back then than they are today and the field was generally closer together.

All these things have changed in the STHS era and as the information about these changes comes in, everyone including the Awards Committee is having to adjust to these changes and to the new intel we have now. In think this is a good and necessary process and one that is not nearly finished, so I would expect things to be in flux quite a bit over the next few seasons as people figure out where they stand in this discussion. For me Booth was a pretty easy choice this season because he performed on the same level in terms of save-percentage as his competition while in much tougher circumstances. But what are we gonna do next year when there is a goalie on the best team in the league with a 93.5% save-percentage and one on a much weaker team with a 93%? I don't have an answer to that yet but my instinct is that as the difference in save-percentage grows, from the miniscule 0.2% it was this season to 0.5% or more, voters will be much more inclined to side with the goalie on the better team again.

And just to make Booth's case on last time as this is something I just realized myself: I think it's just crazy when you look at LA's team stats and compare them to where they actually finished in the Standings, and much of that overperformance is due to Booth. Booth didn't just face the second most shots in the entire league, he also played with a Bottom-5 Offense. LA racked up just 109 goals, that's 40-80 less than the teams ahead of them in their Conference and less than half of the league leading Steelhawks. They were outscored by the likes of Winnipeg, Toronto and Seattle yet finished ahead of all those teams by a 7 to 14 point margin. That all those teams gave up way less shots than LA as well goes without saying I think. Booth gave up 117 goals whereas the goalies on similarly skilled teams who faced similar (actually slightly fewer) amounts of shots gave up 151, 146 , 137, 136 and 128 goals respectively - with the one guy who actually came close to him with 128 goals against already facing 300 fewer shots. If you look at these team numbers, LA arguably should have been a bottom-5 team in the league fighting it out for the top-picks with the likes of Minnesota and Baltimore, yet they ended up making the playoffs and finishing above 50%. Almost all the credit for that has to go to Booth.

I also have a question to people out there: I think most of us have already concluded that Game Rating is a rather useless stat for Skaters, but is it the same for Goalies as well? I haven't taken GR into account at all when making this decision but Booth also had a significant edge on Vilde and Jobin in that category and I'm wondering if that means something or not.

Oh and lastly, I just wanted to point out how great of a season this last one had been for goaltenders in general. Up until this year we hadn't seen a 93+% performance by a starting goalie in FHM yet, in fact we had only seen two above 92.5%, and now we suddenly get three 93+% performances in one year. It is really quite unfortunate for these goalies that they all happened at the same time because each of them would've easily taken home the Award if they had put up those numbers in the seasons before instead of having to go up against each other.

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