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JayWhy · 06-13-2021, 08:39 PM

A Team by Team Outlook Three Seasons Down the Line

A few seasons ago, I did a look through teams to see what their needs were heading for the S57 Draft and then reviewed their selections to determine how well they fit that need. Now, along the path of a lot of different articles, I am going to go back through and see what they looked like in S57 and how those past few seasons have gone, what happened in expansion that can affect what they need to do, and then a review of what they should be looking for at the draft. Finally, I’ll review what they did at the draft and if that looks to be within the needs that I had seen coming in.

To give a disclaimer, this was all written in parts. Before the expansion draft, I wrote up the reviews of the previous time I did this exercise. I also wrote a few of the expansion picks based on assumptions I had, and I got a few correct, luckily. The majority were written after the expansion draft, however, seeing what was taken and how that changed the team. I have no idea of picks traded leading into the draft since the day of the expansion draft at that point. I then of course write the review of the draft picks after the draft is completed.

Disclaimer number two, due to the new rules for double media, this has been broken out into a large number of articles. This introduction will be on each one, as I know how people are. You will be looking for your team and reading primarily about them. I agree with the new rules, and appreciate the graders who will be working through all of this media and just felt a need to make these disclaimers.

Another disclaimer before we get into it, I am in no way disparaging any general managers or teams here. While I give thoughts and opinions, they are wholly my own and as it was last time, I cannot see into the war rooms of these teams to know what the plan ultimately is. I may get some things correct, I may get a lot of things wrong. What I will give is my honest thoughts and opinions, and I do not intend to upset anybody with those.

Without further ado, let’s see how these teams did.

LOS ANGELES PANTHERS

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S37) D – Jack Tanner, (S39) D – Jon Toner, (S42) D – Jordan Von Matt, (S43) LW – Philipp Winter, (S43) D – Craig Finley, (S47) D – Thomas Bathory, (S47) RW – FIlip Zadina, (S47) D – Khan Smeb, (S50) LW – Andrey Barbashev
Prospects in S57: (S56) G – Ragnar-Alexandre Ragnarsson-Tremblay, (S56) LW – Jonas Caspari, (S56) D – Jonas Kahnwald, (S56) RW - “Long” John Donair, (S56) LW – Grape Fruit
Picked in S57: D – Sean Gatez (3), D – Jari Heikkinen (8), D – Kai Ichinose (26)

Boy has this team seen its share of turnover. Out of the players on my list that I thought may be replaced, only one remains and it’s Philipp Winter who I had expected to be able to make it through this stretch. The team has seen graduations from Kahnwald, Donair and Fruit, so the team has definitely had success from a drafting and developing standpoint.

Ultimately, this team has mostly seen turnover in the way of free agency and trades. They were able to bring in Turg Turg from Tampa Bay, and Barrett Blackwood from Edmonton in free agency. They made trades to bring over Mathias Seger and Austin Roenick. The team went all in on S59, and that’s where we kind of pause because as they went all in they then … finished ninth in the league and experienced another first round exit, the fifth time in a row they failed to win a playoff series. This isn’t to be negative and say anything is wrong with the team, but more so to point out that ultimately as good as they’ve looked on paper, it just feels like it hasn’t clicked yet.

Back when I did this last review, Linus Grimstad was graduating to the SHL. Now the former top pick is out of the league. Just looking at their S57 picks, Gatez is 7th in TPE in his class, which is a very good player and is kind of in line with how I had evaluated him before. They also managed to strike gold with Ichinose, who changed his name to Jimmy Jimmy, going from the 26th pick in the draft, to the 17th ranked prospect by TPE. The team has had success in developing young talents, that is, when they bring them in. Which is foreshadowing that will be interesting to review. Really, this is a team that you would expect to be competitive in today’s SHL and things just haven’t come together for them all the time. It makes you wonder, and it does then open the door for expansion to maybe even help them if chemistry is the issue. Though, with a team like theirs, it’s going to be painful no matter what happens.

Players Lost in Expansion: (S48) F – Barrett Blackwood, (S55) F – Turg Turg

Los Angeles loses the two free agents they’ve brought in recently, and loses 64 points out of their line-up from the past season. While it doesn’t look like that much, Blackwood being in regression now does mean the decline is coming but it isn’t bad at this point and it is completely reasonable to expect him to be a good scorer for the long term after putting up 42 this past season. Turg is a great young player, five seasons away from regression, and another one that is like Justin Keahi. While he may not be a high earner like him, Turg is going to be a big hit in the locker room and really help drive the team up the standings just by being around. He’s a very good player, very skilled player who I think will be one of those big contributors that nobody saw coming until he finally exploded onto the scene in a bigger role with an expansion team.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) F – Philipp Winter, (S44) D – Barret McCarthy, (S46) D – Michael Fox, (S47) F – Austin Roenick, (S46) D – Mathias Seger
Prospects: (S57) D – Sean Gatez, (S57) D – Jari Heikkinen, (S57) F – Jimmy Jimmy, (S58) F – Golden Face, (S59) F – Shane Duffy Jr., (S59) F – Aleks Blixstrom, (S59) G – Bloody Oath

Here the team has lost two forwards and are seeing the loss of Barret McCarthy to retirement hit as well. What they have coming up instead is Sean Gatez, Jari Heikkinen and Jimmy Jimmy. Well, Jimmy is in line to fill probably Turg’s role at first as he gets acclimated to the big-leagues. Gatez can take McCarthy’s spot. Then it gets interesting. Heikkinen is now 21st in his class in TPE, and with a defensive core that has a number of good players – Lee, Kahnwald, Kierkegaard, Seger, Fox – it's going to be difficult to find a spot. I honestly don’t know where Heikkinen ends up, but he may not be a Panther this season after all. That would be an unfortunate loss of a former 8th overall pick, but it’s reasonable. If this was one more season, you could see him taking the spot of Michael Fox who has announced his intention to retire, but for S60, he doesn’t look to fit the bill.

That’s actually where things are really interesting for Los Angeles. They seemed perfectly planned for a specific type of loss in expansion. They had the defensive prospects to fill the needs, they have forwards to call up later. And here they are, with a gap at forward and an excess on defense, and I’m sure they have answers for it, but I don’t at this point. They’ll likely look to free agency, would be my guess. However, that is a dangerous proposition sometimes. This is a team that definitely had a plan in place, and it can be seen fairly easily, and I think that plan has been thrown out of whack by expansion being introduced and the expansion teams not really going the route they probably anticipated. And that would be where some foreshadowing from earlier comes into play, as we look at that plan and how the long term actually is different for them seeing the difference in picks.

The plan getting thrown off even a little, as while Duffy at 7th in his class in TPE is probably a long-term coverage for Blackwood, means that they have to be careful to get what they need with the picks they have. They don’t have a lot of chances, and they have to be very confident in what they’re doing. You look at the team and see Winter, Roenick and Seger are definitely older guys that are reaching their ends sooner than later. Blixstrom looks good to take one spot, 23rd in his class now after being taken at 33. Golden Face is 35th in his class, and may be able to take another. However, they lack defensive prospects, and they lack picks. With Seger staying in Los Angeles through expansion, it’s likely he ends up sticking for S61, meaning they would have only one first round pick in the next four drafts, only having two picks in the top two rounds of the next three with their 2nd in S61 and 1st in S62. They’d be entirely out of the S60 draft now, and basically out of the S63 draft as well.

Is this doable? Absolutely. Teams often in their competitive window are playing with their picks a bit to be competitive longer. They have a strategy here, and it’s definitely visible. It is just a bit nerve-wracking to see that they’re coming up on a point where they need to be sure they get a defenseman soon to be prepared for Seger’s eventual departure, and they don’t have many shots at it. They probably have a plan, but knowing that we haven’t seen many defensemen fall past the first round recently means this could be a tall ask for Los Angeles.

Los Angeles Selected: N/A

With no picks, this team is in an interesting situation. They have a fairly good team, and some good prospects to be able to backfill positions. However, I don’t know that I see them as a team that ever displaces Chicago or Texas at the top of the Western Conference, and they have a definite uphill climb as the team is only getting older. I don’t know what they do at this point, but I’m sure that Fuzz has a good vision of what their future holds and is just sticking to that. It will definitely be interesting to see moving forward what Los Angeles has in store for us.

MINNESOTA MONARCHS

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S46) D - Dylan Karlsson, (S48) RW – Ravyn Tedisko, (S48) D – Noah Tedla, (S51) LW – Thicc Cheezy, (S52) C – Stirling MacTavish, (S52) RW – JMac NCheese, (S53) D – Ben Van Dijk
Prospects in S57: (S55) RW – Asclepius Perseus Flitterwind, (S55) RW – Alex Marshall, (S56) C – Rock Strongo, (S56) RW – Kynwyl Pearce
Picked in S57: D – Arsene Leclerc, G – Hugo Gronroos, D - Jimmy Nutcluster, RW – Kyle Murray

The last time I looked at this team, I was questioning the culture a bit. Not the culture of the management team, of course. I think they’re great, and I think they are doing the best they can with what cards they hold. Instead, I was questioning the culture inside the locker room in a sense. I wondered what leadership they had to help drive the bus, so to say. At the time, they had a lot of players that looked solid at the time of the draft and ultimately fell off for one reason or another, and from an outside view it seemed like they had a difficult time getting players to commit.

That then went into hyperdrive since then, I would say. As their top young player, Jack Klompus, also ended up not committing to the team, nor did Johnny Shuffleboard. They gave up a first-round pick to get Shuffleboard, only to have him for one season and watch him leave for Edmonton. Klompus, in frustration of the move, opted to leave as well and was traded, though not for a great return. The team effectively pushed their chips in on what turned out to be a pair of sixes, and the dealer was holding pocket aces. There was no winning that hand.

Do I expect the general managers to have the foresight to see that? Not exactly. They did something reasonable in trying to go for it. They’re pushing as hard as they can, and that’s why I questioned the culture of the team from a locker room standpoint. Do they have a vocal leader that can get people working together? I don’t know, obviously, as an outsider, but it’s something that I wonder about. The team hasn’t really had much evolution since the time I last looked at them, outside of losing some actually good players, and actually half of their defense in Klompus, Shuffleboard and the aforementioned Seger to Los Angeles.

So I wouldn’t expect to see expansion hit this team all that hard, considering where they appear to be in the rebuild cycle – which is about where they were three seasons ago, just with now the league’s longest playoff dry spell.

Lost in Expansion: (S55) F – Alex Marshall, (S47) D – Tony Ford

This is a not insignificant blow to the team, ultimately. Marshall was the 26th pick in the S55 draft, and looked to be a great young prospect for the team. Then joined the big-league squad and kind of vanished, in a similar fashion to a lot of other players for Minnesota. It’s the continuation of what was said above, a lack of follow through on commitment from top players. The biggest pain from it being that Marshall is still a good player, and five seasons away from regression. He can be a good piece on a Cup contending team, and the team was working on building around the window that he’d be a contributor for. It may not look like the biggest loss, but psychologically, that one hurts a general manager to see. Beyond that, the loss of Ford is really in some ways insignificant. He isn’t really making or breaking either team, he’s just a fine piece that may not even be brought back.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S45) F – Mika Mayfield, (S46) D – Perry Morgan, (S47) D – Thomas Bathory, (S50) F – Phineas Gold, (S52) F – Jmac NCheese
Prospects: (S57) G – Hugo Gonroos, (S57) D – Jimmy Nutcluster, (S58) F – Danny C, (S58) F – Travis Konecny, (S59) D – Sekai Wollker, (S59) D – Alexandrs Balcers, (S59) F – Samuel Savage

So the team loses a forward in expansion, and turns around to their prospect pool and sees … not much, actually. Gonroos is going to be a big piece of the puzzle, as Markus Tegernako has announced S60 will be his last. Jimmy Nutcluster is 32nd in his class in TPE, and realistically I don’t think is good enough to take the place of any of the defensemen listed above. That leaves them without much to be excited for in the coming season in terms of call ups after a few exciting seasons of seeing Flitterwind, Strongo, Pearce and Leclerc hit the ice for the team.

They have pieces that will be great, but this is definitely a team that is in more need of high-end prospects. With the graduations of those listed above, they come to a S58 class where they didn’t pick until 22nd overall and took Danny C, who is 33rd in his class in TPE. A steady earner, nonetheless, but somebody who has slowed down since his draft. In S59 they have great prospects, as Alexandrs Balcers and Sekai Wollker are fourth and fifth in their class respectively in TPE. Savage has fallen off, which leaves them with little in the way of forward prospects, but as a late pick, he’s more of a boom or bust attempt and that’s how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

Realistically, this team has seen ups and downs a lot, and now is looking at a team that is kind of mismatched a bit in terms of how they fit. They definitely need forwards, as Mayfield can’t go on forever, and Phineas Gold has stopped his earning as well. They also need some more defense, with Morgan, Bathory and Ford all on their last legs, and I’m sure Collin Gibbles won’t be lasting forever either – though he does have at least three more seasons in him I think. This draft is definitely going to be very important for them, as it gives them picks seven and ten, and as they only have one pick in the S61 draft, and don’t hold a first in S62. These two picks are going to be make or break for them, I’d say. I would expect them to target a forward early on, but really they may follow trends and try to grab somebody that’s being overlooked. If there’s a run on defense early, I expect them to go for a high end forward, and if there’s a run on forwards, I think they’ll play to the defense more. Either way, this team needs an infusion of young talent, and with two top ten picks, they should get it.

Minnesota Selected: F - Santoru Gojo (7), G - Nor Dekes (47)

Going into the draft, Minnesota looked primed to create a core out of two top ten picks. What they did was bring in Santoru Gojo, one of the top ten earners in the class and somebody who is extremely active in a locker room setting. He should be a fantastic addition to the team just to get people talking and get the team moving forward, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gojo become a captain quickly after joining the squad, and be the superstar of the future to finally fill the shoes of a Terrance Nova or Bobby Watson. He kind of fits what I anticipated, they saw a lot of flip flopping in the top of the draft between forwards and defenseman, and found that a superstar forward fell into their lap and took advantage. Then came the interesting situation, as Minnesota punted the tenth overall pick, giving it to Texas for a first next season that is likely to be late-1st (Texas being in the Central likely meets Chicago in the second round of the playoffs) and a 2nd in the coming reddit draft. That’s fine value to a degree, though a bit surprising after seeing some of the other recent trades for similar picks. Nonetheless, the move should help them with what appears to be a couple of deep draft classes coming up instead. They also made a move for S59 defenseman Janne Virtanen. Later in the draft, they grabbed goaltender Nor Dekes from Quebec City. Dekes originally told teams he was interested in staying in the SMJHL for his full career, but that started to change as the draft grew closer. Dekes is a good goaltender, and with the retirement of Tegernako, he should be a good competitor to Hugo Gonroos for the starting position in a few seasons. All in all, it’s a fine draft for Minnesota, getting some good active players and preparing themselves for some drafts coming up.

Now for me to wrap it up. As I said at the start, this is going to be the same in each article I post. The goal being that people understand, this is entirely my own views. Again, I do not have access to the war rooms of any team other than my own. I do not know what they value, I do not know what they expect. I cannot guarantee that this is accurate at all, as the plans these teams have are likely going to be divergent. Likewise, in the next three seasons, a lot of things can change. A lot of these prospects could turn out to be diamonds or could be busts. A lot of the players I listed in danger, may still stick around, as you can see with my review here. None of this is set in stone, so don’t take it that way.

This is just meant to be a fun activity of looking through the teams and how they appear to be built for the long haul, and I give a lot of credit to these teams. Some teams I didn’t see the vision before, and now it’s laid bare. Some I saw the vision before, and the vision veered off track. It can be a bit of a battle when you’re a general manager, but this at least gives a way to see a snapshot for the moment.

Thank you to everybody who has read to this point, and I appreciate everybody who contributes to this league. I hope you all enjoy it.

Quote:Word Count: 3612

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.

Thanks to Jackson, Copenhagen, and Harry Hans!

GOING DOWN IN STYLE. TOAST4LYFE

*Mutedfaith* · 06-14-2021, 01:02 AM

I'm not sure what you're trying to do here, speculating on what it is or isn't like in our LR, but do yourself and everyone else a favour and keep your opinion on things you obviously don't know shit about to yourself next time.

***Acsolap*** · 06-14-2021, 06:40 AM

06-14-2021, 01:02 AMMutedfaith Wrote: I'm not sure what you're trying to do here, speculating on what it is or isn't like in our LR, but do yourself and everyone else a favour and keep your opinion on things you obviously don't know shit about to yourself next time.

Credit to Ml002, King, Wasty, Carpy, Bruins10, Rum_Ham, Turd Ferguson, Ragnar and Enigmatic for the sigs.
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***golden_apricot*** · 06-14-2021, 08:18 AM

06-14-2021, 01:02 AMMutedfaith Wrote: I'm not sure what you're trying to do here, speculating on what it is or isn't like in our LR, but do yourself and everyone else a favour and keep your opinion on things you obviously don't know shit about to yourself next time.

someone clearly didnt read the disclaimer....

*Mutedfaith* · 06-14-2021, 09:29 AM

06-14-2021, 08:18 AMgolden_apricot Wrote:
06-14-2021, 01:02 AMMutedfaith Wrote: I'm not sure what you're trying to do here, speculating on what it is or isn't like in our LR, but do yourself and everyone else a favour and keep your opinion on things you obviously don't know shit about to yourself next time.

someone clearly didnt read the disclaimer....

Oh, I did. And I stand by what I said: Giving your "opinion" on the lockerroom culture in a lockerroom you're not a part of isn't the kind of conduct I would expect from an SHL GM.

If that's the newest schtick, I can play as well tho. Just let me know and I'll throw in some baseless comments and disguise them as my opinion.

ImShiny · 06-14-2021, 09:46 AM

06-14-2021, 09:29 AMMutedfaith Wrote:
06-14-2021, 08:18 AMgolden_apricot Wrote: someone clearly didnt read the disclaimer....
Oh, I did. And I stand by what I said: Giving your "opinion" on the lockerroom culture in a lockerroom you're not a part of isn't the kind of conduct I would expect from an SHL GM.

If that's the newest schtick, I can play as well tho. Just let me know and I'll throw in some baseless comments and disguise them as my opinion.

lmao calling them baseless. Sounds like somebody struck a nerve

***Citizen of Adraa*** · 06-14-2021, 09:50 AM

06-14-2021, 09:29 AMMutedfaith Wrote:
06-14-2021, 08:18 AMgolden_apricot Wrote: someone clearly didnt read the disclaimer....
Oh, I did. And I stand by what I said: Giving your "opinion" on the lockerroom culture in a lockerroom you're not a part of isn't the kind of conduct I would expect from an SHL GM.

If that's the newest schtick, I can play as well tho. Just let me know and I'll throw in some baseless comments and disguise them as my opinion.

He said what he saw. If you don't like it, maybe try doing something about it.

Skeleton Party · 06-14-2021, 09:51 AM

im just here for the recipe

*Leppish* · 06-14-2021, 09:55 AM

06-14-2021, 09:51 AMSkeleton Party Wrote: im just here for the recipe

make spaghetti, add ketchup, eat.

ingedients: one spaghetti, a ketchup.

ImShiny · 06-14-2021, 09:57 AM

06-14-2021, 09:55 AMLeppish Wrote:
06-14-2021, 09:51 AMSkeleton Party Wrote: im just here for the recipe

make spaghetti, add ketchup, eat.

ingedients: one spaghetti, a ketchup.

only one? what if i’m still hungry

*Leppish* · 06-14-2021, 10:01 AM

06-14-2021, 09:57 AMImShiny Wrote:
06-14-2021, 09:55 AMLeppish Wrote: make spaghetti, add ketchup, eat.

ingedients: one spaghetti, a ketchup.
only one? what if i’m still hungry

Thats a shame, no modifying this recipe.

*Mutedfaith* · 06-14-2021, 10:06 AM

06-14-2021, 09:50 AMCitizen of Adraa Wrote:
06-14-2021, 09:29 AMMutedfaith Wrote: Oh, I did. And I stand by what I said: Giving your "opinion" on the lockerroom culture in a lockerroom you're not a part of isn't the kind of conduct I would expect from an SHL GM.

If that's the newest schtick, I can play as well tho. Just let me know and I'll throw in some baseless comments and disguise them as my opinion.

He said what he saw. If you don't like it, maybe try doing something about it.

If that's what he saw, the guy needs a new pair of glasses.

Disclaimer: That's my opinion.

Mayuu · 06-14-2021, 10:13 AM

So what's the LR culture like then? If you don't mind me asking..

RETIRED

***golden_apricot*** · 06-14-2021, 10:17 AM

06-14-2021, 10:06 AMMutedfaith Wrote:
06-14-2021, 09:50 AMCitizen of Adraa Wrote: He said what he saw. If you don't like it, maybe try doing something about it.
If that's what he saw, the guy needs a new pair of glasses.

Disclaimer: That's my opinion.

*Mutedfaith* · 06-14-2021, 10:26 AM

06-14-2021, 10:13 AMMayuu Wrote: So what's the LR culture like then? If you don't mind me asking..

Its fine, tbf. It's not hyperactive or anything, but we have people talking.

And we def have a decent group of people working with the GMs in the warroom.

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