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JayWhy · 06-13-2021, 08:39 PM

A Team by Team Outlook Three Seasons Down the Line

A few seasons ago, I did a look through teams to see what their needs were heading for the S57 Draft and then reviewed their selections to determine how well they fit that need. Now, along the path of a lot of different articles, I am going to go back through and see what they looked like in S57 and how those past few seasons have gone, what happened in expansion that can affect what they need to do, and then a review of what they should be looking for at the draft. Finally, I’ll review what they did at the draft and if that looks to be within the needs that I had seen coming in.

To give a disclaimer, this was all written in parts. Before the expansion draft, I wrote up the reviews of the previous time I did this exercise. I also wrote a few of the expansion picks based on assumptions I had, and I got a few correct, luckily. The majority were written after the expansion draft, however, seeing what was taken and how that changed the team. I have no idea of picks traded leading into the draft since the day of the expansion draft at that point. I then of course write the review of the draft picks after the draft is completed.

Disclaimer number two, due to the new rules for double media, this has been broken out into a large number of articles. This introduction will be on each one, as I know how people are. You will be looking for your team and reading primarily about them. I agree with the new rules, and appreciate the graders who will be working through all of this media and just felt a need to make these disclaimers.

Another disclaimer before we get into it, I am in no way disparaging any general managers or teams here. While I give thoughts and opinions, they are wholly my own and as it was last time, I cannot see into the war rooms of these teams to know what the plan ultimately is. I may get some things correct, I may get a lot of things wrong. What I will give is my honest thoughts and opinions, and I do not intend to upset anybody with those.

Without further ado, let’s see how these teams did.

NEW ORLEANS SPECTERS

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S42) D – Geoff Moore, (S43) RW – Lil Manius, (S43) LW – Nicholas Williams, (S43) C – Steven Moyer, (S47) RW – Boruvka Banananak, (S48) D – Darnell Johnson, (S49) Derek Bohne Jr., (S51) LW – Kenny Creller, (S54) LW – Kwame Dakari
Prospects in S57: (S56) RW – Zbynek Dobrovsky, (S56) C – Xavier Doom
Picked in S57: LW – Vlastislav Malik, G – Jon St. Ark, C – Cian McFelter, D – Robert Feltersnatch, D – Farley Hank

When I looked at this team back in S57, I opened with just a “Woof.” Because really, looking at this team at that time, they definitely were about to fall. They had immediate losses and didn’t have any immediate replacements available. They were looking down the barrel, basically. Which is something that happens. They’re similar to Manhattan and Calgary, the cliff comes eventually for everybody. New Orleans had historic success as a new franchise, and should be proud of that, all culminating with their Challenge Cup victory in S54. What’s happening now is the natural decline, and turnaround of a vaunted franchise.

In the time since I looked at them at the end of S56 when they were 8th in the league, they finished 13th and then last place in the last two seasons. This team is definitely in full rebuild mode. What’s good about that is, they’ve taken advantage. They’ve brought in picks in that time, they’ve been focused on the future entirely. They don’t get sidetracked by moves that can make the present a little easier, or try to take shortcuts really.

This is actually where I want to commend them on taking advantage of situations. Texas was losing a high earning prospect in Slava Petrov, and ended up putting them on waivers where the Specters were able to pick them up free. Same thing happened with Vili Tuga’tuga’bo’atu. They saw Tampa Bay struggling to keep high earning prospects, and used their plethora of draft capital to bring in Valtteri Kauppinen, while also using the cap space they have that’s extremely valuable to swing a pick that became expendable for him. Really, this team has done well to take advantage of situations that present themselves to them and it’s really impressive. They’ve now gotten the 13th, 30th and 40th ranked players in the S56 draft class by TPE, plus a solid depth piece for the long term in Mack Daddy, for basically cap space. They spent a first on Kauppinen, but brought in a future 2nd and the first they spent was received to eat the cap of Mack Daddy.

All in all, it’s been a big turnaround for them from the last time I did this exercise, but they’re still not out of the woods yet and so I wouldn’t expect expansion to really hit them for much.

Taken in Expansion: (S46) D – Oliver Klozoff, (S55) F – Mack Daddy

A forward and a defenseman, not the greatest losses, but really not the biggest for them either. It is a couple of depth inactives who help with managing your cap as the team gets back to competing. However, neither of them were going to make waves. Klozoff is on his last legs, and is probably similar to Tony Ford in that he may not even make it to S60 on Philadelphia. Mack Daddy is still a few more seasons out before leaving the league, but his contract isn't great for the TPE value and I don’t expect him to really stick with a contending team at any point. All in all, this isn’t really breaking New Orleans in any way.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) F – Lil Manius, (S46) F – Olivier Cloutier, (S47) F – Nicolaj Muller, (S48) D – Darnell Johnson, (S50) F – Alexei Rykov, (S51) F – Kenny Creller, (S52) G – Olli Saarinen Jr., (S53) D – Bradley Barkov
Prospects: (S56) F – Zbynek Dobrovsky, (S57) D – Rude Sniff, (S57) G – Jon St. Ark, (S57) D – Robert Feltersnatch, (S57) F – Vlastislav Malik, (S57) F- Cian McFeltersnatch, (S58) F – Nikolaj Boyle, (S58) F – Friedensreich Hundertwasser, (S58) D – Ole Olson, (S58) D – Jean-Locke Zidane, (S59) F – Ville Kurri, (S59) F – Erik Andrews, (S59) D – Sabarro Torretta, (S59) F – LeBron Brady, (S59) G – Iorek Byrnison

What a change from the last time we did this, huh. While there are definitely a lot of older players that will be seeing their way out of the league shortly, this team is not short on prospects to replace them. You can kind of tell they went all in on the last couple of seasons, with five S57 prospects, four S58, and another five S59. They are trying to establish their competitive window to be near the end of the S60s and into the S70s, and I think it looks pretty good.

If we break down their prospects, they have the 2nd highest TPE prospect in S57, 5th and 7th in S58. Not to mention people littered throughout the top 20 or 30 in other classes, and not mentioning the S57s who recently graduated. This team is well stocked up now after looking pretty poor the last time I did this exercise, and I’m thrilled with it, honestly. I have to give big props to the management crew for identifying their weak spots and making an effort to get it together. Now you look at this team and you see a long term outlook with already six defensemen between S56 and S59, to go with a good forward group that covers the majority of the nine spots, and easily covers a top six that can compete in that same timeframe. This should be one of the best teams of the late S60s, it’s just going to take a lot of patience to get there.

And that’s always the hardest part. It’s easy to say this is taking too long and I want to escalate things. It’s easy to give in to the criticism you’ll have, or say this isn’t as fun because it’s taking some time. This is a team that needs to just be patient, and that’s something we’ll have to see. They’ve never had to be patient before, they never had to just wait for it to come. New Orleans came out of the gate hot, and then carried it through from there. So we’ll see how they handle being at the bottom for a while, and just stockpiling those assets. They have a great foundation at this point, it’s just waiting for it to mature, and I think they can pull it off. They have the 2nd and 26th picks in the draft this season, so they’re just adding to the onslaught they have. Considering what they have already in place, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go for a forward at the start of the draft. However, just bringing in any kind of talent is always a good thing and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them with a defenseman. I’m just going to bet on forward.

New Orleans Selected: D - Duncan The Walrus (2), F - Ragnar Ragnarsson (26)

New Orleans has had a top-6 pick in each of the last three drafts, but only owned their own first twice in that time. This time they get the highest pick they’ve had yet, and they get to bring in a cornerstone for the franchise on defense, which isn’t exactly what I anticipated. That’s fine, I’m not always going to be correct and this is one instance where I wasn’t able to be all that clairvoyant. Duncan The Walrus, however, I will make a prediction on. He is going to be a superstar defenseman in New Orleans, and should be an absolute shut down, destructive force on the back end of the squad. He’s a good long-term replacement for Lyle Odelein, as he should end up with similar skills, and the ability to drive the team to the promised land eventually. Meanwhile, they did follow my theory with their next pick at 26, getting Ragnar Ragnarsson. Ragnarsson is a great player, specifically for the locker room. When you’ve stockpiled like New Orleans has, it is a great idea to take a small stretch to get a great player that is going to really add a presence to the locker room leadership. Ragnarsson is somebody that in the future can be a captain type, really driving the team and keeping everybody focused forward, and I think was an incredible pick at that stage in the draft.

SAN FRANCISCO PRIDE

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S39) D – Liam O’Callaghan, (S42) G – Geezus Kryyst, (S48) D - Padraig Sarantez, (S48) RW – Bobby Bobcalf, (S48) D – Haley Knight, (S49) C – Jake Primeau, (S49) LW – Ricky Spanish, (S51) D – Luciano Vessot, (S51) C – Stracimir Petrovic, (S52) D – Noah Nystrom
Prospects in S57: (S55) D – Rikard Bjerg, (S55) C – Sven Gunnar, (S55) C – Walton Stromberg, (S55) G – Nicolae Antonescu, (S55) D – Nathan Thomas, (S56) LW – Yngve Simonsson, (S56) LW – Patrik Money, (S56) C – Daedalus James, (S56) RW – Kev Kevens, (S56) G – Valterri Aalto, (S56) LW – Chad Danger
Picked in S57: D – Ruggs McOoooh (7), LW – Jarmo Kekalainen (19), C – Igor Petrov (31), RW – Mikael Koskinen (32), C - Sonata Diamante (36), LW – Anna Pontecorvo (37)

This sure was an outlook back three seasons ago. They had a lot going on, a lot of prospects, a lot of picks, and a lot of bad players on the squad. They were going nowhere fast, really, and they had a lot of people criticizing some admittedly rough decision-making from the previous regime. They were in a bit of a tailspin, but they’ve definitely evened it out and are on the upswing at this point.

I’m just going to relive a bit of what was happening at the time. They had the $12-million cap penalty, they had given up picks for Geezus Kryyst and then failed to play him, they were reeling from the selection of Simothy Drunkebird first overall. This is a sample of what was happening at the time, and it’s just the pains they were going through. Now, on the other side, we can say boy that was some rough shit. It’s self-inflicted wounds, but it’s over now and I don’t expect to see any of those same mistakes happen again. In fact, I can almost guarantee we won’t be seeing a first overall bust from San Francisco anytime soon as I don’t know that they’re going to be picking that early anymore.

At this point, all of the players I anticipated being off the team in three seasons are gone except the aforementioned Kryyst. The kids have taken over, and they’re looking pretty solid, in all actuality. They made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, gave the Toronto North Stars a heart attack in S58, and should be primed to do some damage soon. With that in mind, they even made a big move and brought in Mats Marner. He’s since announced his intention of testing free agency, but turning a S43 in Jeff Brogen into a S54 Mats Marner is a good move and if they can manage to pull him back in free agency rather than losing him for nothing, that’s going to be a huge pull for the team. I give them a lot of credit for making the choices they did, it’s difficult to know when to pull the trigger, and they went for it. If it blows up in their face, as we’ve seen with this regime, it won’t mean anything. They’re still prepared to keep moving forward, and should be fine.

However, this leaves me wondering how expansion affects them. They started their rebuild earlier than a team like New Orleans, so while a lot of New Orleans top prospects are automatically being protected, San Francisco has some tougher decisions to make and will be exposing a lot of young players. We’ll see how it hits them.

Taken in Expansion: (S55) D – Nathan Thomas, (S57) F – Jarmo Kekalainen

Losing some young contributors is always painful, but the team I think is well set up to eat that loss and keep moving forward from it. Thomas is a good earning defenseman, 24th in his class by TPE, and somebody who has effectively been a max earner for a long stretch now. He’s going to end up being a very good defenseman, and likely a top pairing guy at some point in his career. Still being five seasons from regression, he’s got nothing but time to really turn into something big for a team. That’s an unfortunate loss for San Francisco, but unavoidable, considering who they ended up protecting. They’re already aligned to make up for that loss, though, which is great news.

The tougher one to me is losing Kekalainen. 16th in his class in TPE, he’s a pretty strong young player to lose. He went early to Montreal, and is going to be a big player for them long term and is likely the future face of the franchise. He hasn’t even played a game in the SHL yet, but here he comes in for an expansion team and is getting an opportunity to shine immediately. This one feels like a tough loss for San Francisco as this is a good young player that helps their long term outlook, but with them trying to set their window he just sat outside of it.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S42) G – Geezus Kryyst, (S44) D – Poopity Scoop, (S54) F – Niccolo Livius, (S55) D – Fleetway Super Sonic
Prospects: (S56) G – Valtteri Aalto, (S57) F – Anna Pontecorvo, (S57) D – Ruggs McOooh, (S57) F – Igor Petrov, (S57) F – Mikael Koskinen, (S57) F – Sonata Diamante, (S58) D – Gregory Goode, (S58) F – Greg Davies, (S58) D – Narboza Manyhands, (S59) F – Viktor Zukal, (S59) F – Fedor Sotakov, (S59) F – Miguel Hefewizen, (S59) G – Benjamin Blue

This feels similar to Tampa Bay. I stretched a little with including some younger, but slower earning, players on the list of players in danger. Typically, you don’t see young and active players at that stage, but it’s just the nature of the beast. In this situation, Ruggs McOooh is in line to come up and fill Nathan Thomas’s spot. The second pick in S58, Gregory Goode, will step into Poopity Scoop’s position on the line-up, and the alien man himself Narboza Manyhands is in line to take over for Super Sonic in S61. That’s just how it aligns.

Meanwhile, they have a ton of forward prospects. Of course some of them are slower earners, not going to be the biggest superstars or something. If you look at it in more detail, only Hefeweizen is in the top 20 of their draft classes, though Igor Petrov isn’t far off at 23rd in S57. Petrov is due up this season, and so it may be the end of the line for the hard hitting Livius in San Francisco if they’re able to pull Mats Marner back. The more I look at the team, the less I see where a player like Hefeweizen will fit unless Marner does exit. Which may be in my lack of foresight for them, not really any comment on them in particular.

Realistically, this team has one player in regression outside of the back-up goaltender and a third pairing defenseman, and that player is a 2k TPE player who is hitting his first season of regression. He has a long, long way to go. They won’t have more than two people in regression for another three seasons, so it’s going to be a while and at that point Hefeweizen is due up already. They’re going to have tough decisions on their hands, and right at the real start of their compete window. While they’re getting competitive now, at least enough to make the playoffs, it’s going to be in about three seasons when we look again that they’ll be on the cusp of competing for the Challenge Cup.

That’s going to be an interesting time for them, with a lot of tough decisions going into it and a lot of work to be done before then. The team may have no issues getting there, but they’re coming up on situations that are not fun to deal with, but must be done. In the meantime, they have the 11th and 31st picks in the draft coming up, and if I’m looking at it, I have no idea what they pick. I’m going to side with forward for now, just as a back-up precaution in case someone doesn’t turn out. You never know.

San Francisco Selected: G - Senji Seteki (17), F - LaTrell McDonald (31)

Alright, now I’m fascinated. I know a lot of people that would balk at a goaltender in the first round, and that’s fair. Goaltenders are a dime a dozen anymore, there’s so many that the market just isn’t that consistent for them. Meanwhile, I don’t know that San Francisco needed a goaltender, at least not to the naked eye. With Nicolae Antonescu effectively max earning as a S55, he’s a long way from regressing and Seteki will have to be up before then. This is interesting for sure. There are things to give credit for, trading back, gathering assets to still get who you want is a very admirable thing and a great move. I just know see Seteki’s place on the team currently, at least not for the long-term. I guess I was right to think there was no way of knowing what they wanted, and considering what they went with, I guess the priority was just locker room benefits. Seteki is a great person, who really adds to the locker room. LaTrell McDonald is a good pick up at 31 who is a great person as well and will add great value to the locker room activity. As I say often, just because I don’t see the vision doesn’t mean it isn’t there, it’s just that I’m not having the proper foresight for it. All in all, if San Francisco is happy with the draft, more power to them.

SEATTLE ARGONAUTS

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) D – Tig Murphy, (S46) C – Knute Knurtsson, (S46) C – Kristoffer Svensson, (S46) RW – Anastasia O’Koivu, (S49) G – Nolan McMahon, (S49) D – Mikas Bieksa, (S50) LW – Gylfi Eriksson, (S50) LW – Alexei Rykov
Prospects in S57: (S56) C – Dee Centerman IV, (S56) RW – Vaseline Podcalzone, (S56) D – Yuuto Kira Cloudera Jr., (S56) RW – Zdenko Beranek, (S56) RW – William Salming
Picked in S57: G – Yanno Rosejac (20), D – Ren-Ekelemchi Shimizu-Okoli (23)

When I looked back in S57, the team was only about a year into their existence and there wasn’t much to it. At this point, we now know a lot more about how the operation is run in Seattle. It’s a pretty good one, as they’ve made their first playoff appearance this past season. However, it’s definitely been interesting, to say the least.

Back in S57, they had a ton of players to be replaced. At this point, everybody who was on that initial roster has left the team in some way. It’s been a big exodus as the team attempted to leave the expansion draft life behind them and get on with the world that was envisioned in Seattle. The difference between them and Atlanta being stark, as Atlanta has been lucky to bring in free agents at times and Seattle has had a mixture of free agent buy in and trades to pull the team to a more competitive level. They’ve brought in Reid Sutherland and Gabriel Johnson by trade, while getting superstar level players Bo Kane and Michael Scarn in free agency.

This is a team that has evolved, basically. From a team that was on the outside early on, to a team that’s ready to take steps to another level and beyond really. They may not be exactly perfect at this point, it is a difficult task to get an expansion team to be competitive, but they are definitely a strong team with a good management group prepared to make things happen on their end. What I think is most impressive is the buy in they’ve gotten from outsiders, and if that continues, while expansion is going to hit them, I doubt it hits them all that hard.

Players Lost in Expansion: (S51) D – Abel Skinner, (S53) F – Frederick Wanesly

Alright, so some tough losses to eat. The team has a deep and strong defensive group, and because of that had to have somebody on the outside looking in. In this case, they lose a pretty high earning defenseman who they brought in from the expansion draft. Skinner could do for Montreal the same that they did for Seattle, helping to really carry the load defensively on a team that needs some time to find their identity and implement it. Meanwhile, Wanesly isn’t the biggest name on the board – comparing him to high tpe players like Zizagooney or Vanice. That isn’t a fair comparison, though. He’s five seasons younger than Zizagooney, three younger than Vanice, and still three seasons away from regression. While he isn’t at the TPE levels of the others, he’s a great contributor who is also known to be a great addition to a locker room. He may not light the world on fire, but that kind of locker room loss for a team that is still in the phase of establishing their identity could be difficult.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S45) D – Cassius Darrow, (S48) D – Satoshi Zizagooney, (S52) D – Sabo Tage, (S55) G – Peter Ramsey
Prospects: (S57) D – Ren-Ekelemchi Shimizu-Okoli, (S57) G – Yanno Rosejac, (S58) F – Kermit Murphy, (S58) F – Brian Davenport, (S58) D – Daryl Urquhart, (S59) F – Daud Ramza

So the team loses a forward and defenseman, in spite of having two good goaltenders available, and having another on the way. Ultimately, the listing of Ramsey on this is just to show that they’re going to be dropping a goalie here quickly, and Ramsey is the odd man out. Otherwise, Shimizu-Okoli should be fine to step into the roster next season and keep them moving forward. As the 19th player by TPE in the S57 draft class, that’s a good prospect that should be fine to take over a sheltered role that Seattle is thankfully able to give with their depth on defense. This team shouldn’t suffer much setback on this one.

What is interesting to me is looking at the long-term outlook. Sure, Darrow could probably go past the three-season mark I’ve set here, but is also going to be at 18 seasons at that point. Zizagooney is a bit younger, but at that 15 season mark then, it’s going to be getting close to the end for both. However, they don’t have much defense in the prospect pool, instead mostly opting for forwards. I don’t estimate them losing any forwards in those next three seasons, they only have three who will be in regression in that time and one is a 2k Michael Scarn who should be solid for most of that time and another is Bo Kane, who they paid $7-million per season for through that 3-season mark so they shouldn’t be anticipating losing him in that time either.

They don’t exactly have slouches either. Murphy is 19th in his class, Davenport is 28th. Daud Ramza is tied for 2nd in the S59 class in TPE. This is three good players who I can’t find a spot for currently, barring some strange losses. They may see Scarn off, and they may let go of Thomas Vanice by that point, but it certainly looks like they’re going to be coming up on a logjam at forward very soon.

That in mind, I would bet on them to target defense in the draft, where they only have the 34th pick. Next season, they only own a first before the season after that having an extra pick to go with all of their original picks. It definitely seems like something where they should be hoping to see Darrow go 20-plus seasons, and Zizagooney to be trying to follow. They need to get some defense in this pool quick, so if there’s defense available at 34, we’ll see them go there.

Seattle Selected: F - Twelve Forty-Seven Fifteen (34)

There was not really any defense at that pick, as expected. Seattle ultimately picked up Twelve Forty-Seven Fifteen, also known as Numbers. Numbers is a S59 undrafted player who has a big following around the league in some ways. He should be a great contributor to the locker room at the least, and if he picks up the updating, he’ll be incredible value for the team. All else fails, they gave a shot to someone who may have been overlooked before and now gets an opportunity to really show what they’re working with. No harm done in making that pick.

Now for me to wrap it up. As I said at the start, this is going to be the same in each article I post. The goal being that people understand, this is entirely my own views. Again, I do not have access to the war rooms of any team other than my own. I do not know what they value, I do not know what they expect. I cannot guarantee that this is accurate at all, as the plans these teams have are likely going to be divergent. Likewise, in the next three seasons, a lot of things can change. A lot of these prospects could turn out to be diamonds or could be busts. A lot of the players I listed in danger, may still stick around, as you can see with my review here. None of this is set in stone, so don’t take it that way.

This is just meant to be a fun activity of looking through the teams and how they appear to be built for the long haul, and I give a lot of credit to these teams. Some teams I didn’t see the vision before, and now it’s laid bare. Some I saw the vision before, and the vision veered off track. It can be a bit of a battle when you’re a general manager, but this at least gives a way to see a snapshot for the moment.

Thank you to everybody who has read to this point, and I appreciate everybody who contributes to this league. I hope you all enjoy it.

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An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.