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JayWhy · 06-13-2021, 08:40 PM

A Team by Team Outlook Three Seasons Down the Line

A few seasons ago, I did a look through teams to see what their needs were heading for the S57 Draft and then reviewed their selections to determine how well they fit that need. Now, along the path of a lot of different articles, I am going to go back through and see what they looked like in S57 and how those past few seasons have gone, what happened in expansion that can affect what they need to do, and then a review of what they should be looking for at the draft. Finally, I’ll review what they did at the draft and if that looks to be within the needs that I had seen coming in.

To give a disclaimer, this was all written in parts. Before the expansion draft, I wrote up the reviews of the previous time I did this exercise. I also wrote a few of the expansion picks based on assumptions I had, and I got a few correct, luckily. The majority were written after the expansion draft, however, seeing what was taken and how that changed the team. I have no idea of picks traded leading into the draft since the day of the expansion draft at that point. I then of course write the review of the draft picks after the draft is completed.

Disclaimer number two, due to the new rules for double media, this has been broken out into a large number of articles. This introduction will be on each one, as I know how people are. You will be looking for your team and reading primarily about them. I agree with the new rules, and appreciate the graders who will be working through all of this media and just felt a need to make these disclaimers.

Another disclaimer before we get into it, I am in no way disparaging any general managers or teams here. While I give thoughts and opinions, they are wholly my own and as it was last time, I cannot see into the war rooms of these teams to know what the plan ultimately is. I may get some things correct, I may get a lot of things wrong. What I will give is my honest thoughts and opinions, and I do not intend to upset anybody with those.

Without further ado, let’s see how these teams did.

TEXAS RENEGADES

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: None
Prospects in S57: (S55) LW – Theo Kondos, (S56) LW – Slava Petrov, (S56) LW – Lemo Pihl
Picked in S57: N/A

I called them Toronto-West at the time, because they were perfectly aligned, had no needs really and were looking like they were primed to compete for a Cup in the next three seasons. Luckily for them, unlike Toronto who is primed to compete, they were in the West rather than the Great Lakes. And in the third season, Texas managed to actually pull it off and win the Cup for S59. Congratulations to them!

For anybody watching the teams around the league, this was something that could be seen basically a mile away. This team was perfectly set up with a core group that was primed to compete now. Even the players that are a bit older are still basically at their peak values. The question for them is did they just manage to win it in their last chance before expansion ravages the team?

Well, we know for sure they’re losing Kaarlo Kekkonen, which is an over 2k player gone from the team. Past that, they don’t have a weak list at all. Anybody off this group of 1k-plus players could go and it would be a big difference for them. Seeing over 3000 TPE just leaving for nothing to brand new teams is difficult, and even more difficult when you’re watching it happen and you don’t have much in line to try and replace that. I mean – how do you replace that much TPE in a line-up?

Honestly, I think it’s impossible. That is the point of expansion, too, I guess. It’s to cause some parity, to open things up. This team is going to be active this off-season, I’d bet. It’s just the question of how active. They have picks to play with, and so they can give value. We’ll see how they manage it, but first we need to know who the second player they lose is.

Lost in Expansion: (S51) F – Kaarlo Kekkonen, (S51) G – White Goodman

This was the best-case scenario by a mile for Texas. While it’s never a good thing to be losing a 2k player for free, this was something they had no control over. What they did control is the second player picked, as White Goodman comes off the books as an active back-up and helps open up a ton more space for their cap to try and find a way to replace Kekkonen. They had to give up a pick for it, which ended up being 20th overall in the S60 draft, but that isn’t a big loss as they already hold another, higher first round pick as it is anyway. This one feels like a headscratcher for the expansion squad in Montreal, as they definitely seem like they could’ve gotten more value out of it, but ultimately getting a first-round pick and having a starting goalie isn’t a bad thing.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S47) F – Josef Kubinec, (S48) D – Piotr Horvat, (S49) D – Noah Brusky
Prospects: (S58) D – Basil Sivart

Well, the team is in an interesting situation. They lose a lot of TPE out of their line-up, and then you look at this. They don’t have many prospects, just Sivart, who is 14th in his class in TPE and should be a good player in the long term. Kubinec announced his intention to retire at the end of S57, but hasn’t followed through with the full blown paperwork filing announcement. If they lose him, a 1500-plus TPE forward, that’s another major loss and they don’t have the prospects in place to take that spot. Horvat is looking at dropping below 1k TPE in the near future. I added in Brusky only as a mention of him being a bit older, but realistically he should stick through the three season mark.

However, this is where things are difficult on Texas. Sivart can take the spot for Horvat pretty easily. Kubinec is going to be gone in one season and they don’t have anything prepared, as they already lose a 2k forward. Realistically, it is very likely that Texas won the Cup in what was their last chance before their team got a bit ravaged.

Now that isn’t to say the team won’t win again, or can’t. They’re still a very strong and competitive team, and with some luck in free agency or with the trade market opening up with the extra money being put in everyone’s accounts basically, they could find ways to fill those gaps. It’s just going to be difficult on them, so I wouldn’t exactly expect it until I see it.

The good is, they appear to have been a little prepared for this, as they have the 12th and 40th picks in this coming draft, and own all of their picks in the next three drafts, as well as some additional picks from Baltimore, Atlanta and Edmonton. They should be fine, but they should be looking to get some help and I’d prioritize forward if I were them. But expect them to come out of the first round of this draft with both a forward, I’d say.

Texas Selected: F - High Haschdi (10), F - Bjorn Bjorn (12), F - Uhtred Ragnarsson (21)

Texas was making moves. Sometimes they were making bad moves, which I’ll comment on in a bit, but mostly they made some prudent moves. First getting tenth overall from Minnesota for what should be two fairly later picks in future seasons to get High Haschdi, one of the few players in the class to complete all point tasks and deep dives. Haschdi is a great pick up, who I don’t have a lot of familiarity with, but appears primed to become a superstar player. That’s a huge deal, and is showing the priority on forward for them as Haschdi will help cover their loss on Kubinec. Meanwhile, they already held 12 heading into the draft, and used it to bring in Bjorn Bjorn. This is another great addition, who is a high earning player, but even more so is a great personality for the locker room. As the team gets older, you need lively new players in there to keep them active sometimes, and this is the kind of addition to do that.

Then they moved their S61 2nd and 3rd, ultimately moving all of their S61 picks for this draft, to get the 21st pick where they took Uhtred Ragnarsson. Ragnarsson is an interesting case, as he’s mentioned to teams heading into the draft that he wasn’t expecting to stick around for long into the fall as things pick up and get busier, but Texas is in a unique position to give that player a shot and hope for the best. It wouldn’t be the first time to see a player manage to continue earning at a consistent rate through that, and Ragnarsson could be a fantastic value at that pick. That’s all of the picks Texas made, though it seemed they wanted more. Texas tried to trade with Hamilton for 39 from 40, which got to be a mess. Hamilton was required to draft YoungBoy there, making for a confusing situation as it would guarantee whoever they want at 39 is still there at 40. However, they attempted multiple trades, and actually double traded picks in that and had to remove themselves from the situation. They eventually traded away 40 to Baltimore, and with it will be losing their reddit 3rd.

WINNIPEG AURORA

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) LW - Ignatius Blunt, (S43) C – Goku Muerto, (S43) LW – Jack Kennedy, (S46) D – Osbert Whacker, (S46) RW - Yoshimitsu McCloud, (S52) RW – Bale
Prospects in S57: (S55) RW – James Kimanje, (S55) LW – Zelma Zuntnere, (S55) RW – Victor Ball, (S56) D – Sarah Burke, (S56) C – Jst Maro, (S56) D – Jasper Maximov
Picked in S57: LW – Dwayne Gretzky, LW – Freyja Hellstrom, G – Vincent Mietitore, RW - Marabelle Octive

What an interesting look back here. In S57, I was saying this team was in transition. They had prospects that just needed to develop, a couple higher picks with picks at both five and six, and were looking prepared to weather the storm of age.

Then it turned out mother nature hits a little harder than you expect. Other than a miracle run in the playoffs, this team has sputtered most of the way here. Looking at the prospects, they managed to bring most of them to the SHL level, with only Ball not making it there. Their top picks have developed, Dwayne Gretzky is still 12th in TPE in his draft class, and while Freyja Hellstrom didn’t end up developing well, Vincent Mietitore appears primed to take the net from Strom Chamberlain soon.

So what happened? Well, the team lost Reid Sutherland to Seattle, which ultimately adjusted their timelines. And they saw their team kind of stay in a similar range as always – a middling team that just isn’t quite bad enough for the top pick but also isn’t really good enough to get the playoffs spot or at least do much when they do get there. It’s a team that needs more high-end prospects that they don’t typically get lately. It will be an interesting one to see their expansion decisions.

Lost in Expansion: (S55) F – Zelma Zuntnere, (S55) F – James Kimanje

This is the only team to go the opposite route and instead of doing 7-4-1 protection, opted for the 9-1 protection list instead. It’s debateable if that’s the right choice for most teams, but for this one, I can see why they chose to do it with a young and talented blue line that would have definitely had somebody picked off it. The forwards don’t really match that blue line depth, so a little easier to part with.

What they probably didn’t expect was who they would be parting with. Zuntnere is 29th in the S55 class in TPE, Kimanje is tied for 31st. These aren’t the best prospects, they won’t be these superstar, top line scorers probably. But they’re good pieces, and very young. They ultimately have five seasons until regression, and that’s a big timeframe for them to continue to earn and be helpful to a competitive team. They also tie to the window that Winnipeg had lined up for their defense pretty well, so it’s definitely a harsh blow to the team and makes you wonder if it could be a catalyst for them to make any further change.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S43) F – Goku Muerto, (S45) D – Slip McScruff, (S46) F – Commander Shepard, (S48) F – Calogero Crudelli, (S55) F – Jason Desrouleaux
Prospects: (S57) F – Dwayne Gretzky, (S57) G – Vincent Mietitore, (S57) F – Marabelle Octive, (S58) F – David S. Pumpkins, (S58) D – Zayne Rotzbua, (S59) F – Alexis Saint-Michel, (S59) F – Corman Ponaire, (S59) F – Scooby Doo, (S59) F – Robot Sunfish

So the team is, in some ways, prepared for the loss with the addition of Dwayne Gretzky coming along. However, they probably were a little more hopeful for it not to be as significant of a loss. It doesn’t appear Octive would be in line to take the spot of Kimanje, and so it will be likely they’re going to be in the market for another forward to fill out that line-up. While you always aim big, they have the luxury of settling a bit earlier to get one of the better players in the secondary market.

The team is in an interesting position when we look at their prospects. It’s pretty clear that they’ve continued to be that fringe contender team, trying to get to playoffs, but ultimately not getting much out of it. They only have one prospect who is in the top-10 of their draft class in TPE, and that’s Alexis Saint-Michel for S59 at 10. Robot Sunfish was arguably the surprise of the draft at pick 9, and ranks 25th in TPE in the class. Obviously, TPE isn’t everything, and I hear he’s a fantastic person for the locker room environment, so in no way am I saying it was a bad pick. Just that ultimately, the team continues to have some middle-tier prospects even when they pick at a higher pick.

That can raise questions about their scouting team and what they see, or it can be an important discussion for them to have about what their future is if they don’t have any true superstars or only have a couple. They’ve kind of seen it before, with Nick Brain and Slip McScruff being elite players but not nearly enough compared to the super teams built today in Hamilton, Buffalo, and others. It seems like the gold is always just out of reach, and maybe even the silver also, and so it raises the question of what they’ll do next. Does expansion give them the ability to say it’s time to rebuild? Or are they going to continue to push for that gold, and hope they get some luck along the way? Will they delay it knowing they don’t have a first in either of the next two drafts, and how will that effect their ability to complete the rebuild around the current core?

I can’t answer that, and I doubt they can currently. It is a discussion every team has, ultimately. I think this one is just the most pressing one. We will see what they end up doing, but it will be interesting to see at the least. With firsts out for two drafts, it’s going to be difficult to make a meaningful change, but it may be necessary. Meanwhile, they have the sixth pick in the draft this season and should be adding some high-end prospects. Considering how they managed their expansion list and that they managed to keep their young defense together, I would expect to see them go after a forward here. There should be many available who are top earners in their class and a big addition for the locker room. It’s just up to them to decide who fits best then.

Winnipeg Selected: F - Gonzo Gobbledygook (4), D - Marcel Beck (6), F - Daniel Merica Jr. (16), F - Elvis Alexander (46)

Well this team had some changes since I wrote the write-up above. Moving Magnus Liljestrom, they brought in picks 4 and 16 in the draft and gave themselves a lot of opportunity to build their base in the prospect pool. At 4, they grabbed Gonzo Gobbledygook, who at least personally was arguable to be the top pick in the draft. That is a major grab for the team and should give them a big boost to the prospect pool and gives them a player to really build around. With the loss of Liljestrom, they bring in Marcel Beck at 6. With two defenseman having gone before their pick, they got a fantastic addition in Beck. He may be a bit of a quieter type to some, but in the time leading up to the draft, he exploded on the scene and really set himself apart as a superstar-level player. Later at 16 they brought in Daniel Merica Jr, and while some have issues with this pick, I think it’s great value. Merica has been a good player in the juniors, and while his personality has been called into question by some, I think it’s ultimately unfair. He may not have the same values as some, but he will be somebody that absolutely gets the team feeling confident and can be a captain for the team as long as they’re willing to rally behind his boisterous personality. They also grabbed Elvis Alexander later in the draft, who may not be the best player, but for a team in need of some more high end pieces in their prospect pool, this is a great pick up to have at that stage in the draft. I think Winnipeg absolutely nailed this draft, and it looks to be a great building block for the ensuing rebuild.

TORONTO NORTH STARS

Players Originally in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S49) LW – Anthony Archer, (S50) LW – Ricky Bobby
Prospects in S57: (S55) RW – Liam Slate, (S55) LW – Ryu Jones, (S55) RW – Juni Panda, (S55) LW – Vincent Wolfe
Drafted in S57: N/A

Here we go, the darlings of my previous post. I fell in love with Toronto when I did this last time in S57. I legitimately was stunned by the work done, and how well this team was built up. Now, things have changed a bit, but not significantly. Slate, Jones and Panda all managed to find their way to the SHL, and the team definitely is masterful at drafting and developing.

What they’re apparently not so masterful at is cap management, but that’s beside the point. Or, I guess it is the point. After so much incredible work went into things with Toronto, they had a bit of a stumble I’d say with a punishment for failing to properly utilize bonuses in their contracts. They were over-budget, and more so because of signing prospects with excess than anything else. It ended up costing them Scoochie Stratton and Juni Panda, as well as another prospect in Jesse Trudeau. Not to mention the draft picks it cost as well. The question is, will they feel the effect of the loss of draft picks?

The more I look at them, the less I think they will. Things could always change, but what we’ll do first as always is take a look at expansion and how that affects things.

Players Lost in Expansion: (S50) F – First-Name Last-Name, (S53) F – Taylor Johansson

Fascinating, really. Johansson went third in the expansion draft, Last-Name went fourth. These are two of the top players in the expansion draft, as Last-Name is 20th in his class in TPE and Johansson is 22nd. These are players that can be top six players for the expansion teams, helping to keep the team competitive. In every way, I think this was a difficult situation for Toronto. They were likely hoping to see a split of defense and forward taken from them, as they seem pretty perfectly aligned for that. However, with the loss of Johansson, they’re likely on the hunt for a good third line center to keep their depth strong and the loss of Last-Name leaves them needing a strong wing player. This is a tricky path forward for them now out of expansion.

Players in Danger of being replaced in the next 3 seasons: (S53) D – Axel Meszaros
Prospects: (S59) D – Dane von Gucci, (S59) D – Jay Sink, (S59) F – Ryuuji Kawashima

This is why I’m not so sure the team will feel the loss of those draft picks from the cap penalty hiccup they encountered. Toronto used their assets to have the top two picks in S59, taking Sink and Gucci, but also getting the sixth pick and taking Kawashima. They have three of the best prospects in the league from S59. I mean that literally in a measurable way as well, as Kawashima is tied for the lead in TPE in the class. Sink is third, and von Gucci is fifth. These aren’t just high-end prospects, they aren’t just elite prospects, they are bonafide blue chip, superstar prospects.

Had they lost a forward and defenseman in expansion, they would be perfectly aligned with losing two defenseman and a forward. However, in this case, the team is now looking at having two defenseman prospects and only one forward with two holes at forward. While I don’t think they’ll aim to use any of them this season, it does show that they have a gap for the long-term outlook of the club to consider now.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Toronto as the new overlords in the new system with expansion. They’re probably the team that benefits the best from it as they’re legitimately one of the best run teams in the league and just suffered from being in a division with three of the other best run teams in the league. Looking ahead to this draft, Toronto has pick 28 and really, I could see them even considering punting it and just waiting for what comes later. However, after expansion opened a hole on forward in the long-term, I think they’ll be aiming to find a center if they can that can fill a hole and extend their window out further.

Toronto Selected: D - Mars Stanton (28), F - Benjamin Jansson (42), F - Monsieur Pingy Pingu Lunga Gumba Esq. (48), D - Alf Magnusson (69), F - Kou Saotome (88)

This team just went for it with their picks, wanting to guarantee that nobody active went undrafted, and I respect that. It is a difficult job to determine who to pick at times, and a lot of teams have a hard time trusting somebody who may have had previous shortcomings. Toronto knew they had an opportunity to bring some people in and tell them this is your shot, and now they have a chance to make a roster or at least get into the prospect pool of a team. Mars Stanton is a high earning defenseman who fell hard to 28, and is a major pick-up for Toronto, and Alf Magnusson at 69 is a nice pick up. Meanwhile, Jansson, Lunga Gumba and Saotome may go through the new league process for draftee rights but now have an opportunity to get a deeper look from teams that had passed on them. Many teams may pass expecting to sign a free agent and with their cap potentially opened, they now get the chance to grab a prospect instead. This is a win-win, and a great look for Toronto to give these people an opportunity to get picked up somewhere.

Now for me to wrap it up. As I said at the start, this is going to be the same in each article I post. The goal being that people understand, this is entirely my own views. Again, I do not have access to the war rooms of any team other than my own. I do not know what they value, I do not know what they expect. I cannot guarantee that this is accurate at all, as the plans these teams have are likely going to be divergent. Likewise, in the next three seasons, a lot of things can change. A lot of these prospects could turn out to be diamonds or could be busts. A lot of the players I listed in danger, may still stick around, as you can see with my review here. None of this is set in stone, so don’t take it that way.

This is just meant to be a fun activity of looking through the teams and how they appear to be built for the long haul, and I give a lot of credit to these teams. Some teams I didn’t see the vision before, and now it’s laid bare. Some I saw the vision before, and the vision veered off track. It can be a bit of a battle when you’re a general manager, but this at least gives a way to see a snapshot for the moment.

Thank you to everybody who has read to this point, and I appreciate everybody who contributes to this league. I hope you all enjoy it.

Quote:Word Count: 4387

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.

Thanks to Jackson, Copenhagen, and Harry Hans!

GOING DOWN IN STYLE. TOAST4LYFE

Merica · 06-13-2021, 08:55 PM

***Chevy*** · 06-13-2021, 09:05 PM

***luke*** · 06-13-2021, 09:07 PM

again, JayWhy proves he can be the best writer in the league if he trys

tweedledunn · 06-13-2021, 11:31 PM

***Ohtaay*** · 06-14-2021, 03:47 PM

Nice write up Jaywhy.

I could be bias but I think you will see Texas being a top team for awhile, I get the concerns you have - but they are really just about filling a hole when they come up. As we continue to string strong seasons together Texas will become a hot destination, making it easier to fill the gaps.

Losing Kaarlo hurts, but with some of the top earners from the S53 to S56 draft will help fill that gap. With the addition of a free agent to lighten the tpe loss even more. Ultimately, I think Puoli's work as an FHM Gm is next level, and I think it showed this season.

End of the day, lots will be changing under the new update scale, will be fun to see how it plays out.

Cheers

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